Chit Chat
from the Spectator:
Britain is now locked down for at least three weeks, but could the government’s original policy of relying on herd immunity have been right all along? That is the inference of a team of epidemiologists from Oxford university, whose modelling produces remarkably different results from that of Professor Neil Ferguson and his team at Imperial College. It was the Imperial College model which, on Monday 16 March which led to the dramatic U-turn, and the government’s adoption of a complete suppression policy for Covid-19.
Like everything being published about coronavirus at the moment, the Oxford study comes with a health warning. It has not yet been peer-reviewed and, like all form of modelling, it relies on the quality of the data and assumptions which are fed into it. But if it is anywhere close to reflecting the truth, it raises questions about a policy of seeking to suppress Covid-19, with all the lockdowns and economic damage which comes with it. Infection with SARS-CoV-2 - the virus which causes Covid-19 - may be already so established in the population that it might be pointless trying to contain it.
The good news, on the other hand, is that if the Oxford model is correct, it suggests the disease is a lot less deadly than has been feared. It would also suggest that the epidemic will be in decline much sooner than most currently believe, because there will soon be few people left for the virus to infect. The Oxford model suggests that the virus might have been in circulation in Britain for four weeks before the first death was recorded and that a large proportion, if not the majority, of the UK population might already be infected.
Running the model with slightly different assumptions produced estimates that by last Thursday, between 36 per cent and 68 per cent of the UK population had already been infected with the virus, with the vast majority of the population showing no symptoms whatsoever. An Italian study published yesterday – which analysed the results from a village near Venice where all 3,000 residents were tested for the virus – suggested that between 50 per cent and 75 per cent of those infected show no symptoms.
It has to be emphasised that the Oxford study is theoretical, and it shouldn't be taken as a call to end the lockdown restrictions - at least, not yet. What it does show is the wide gap between scientists on the likely path of the epidemic. Above all, it underlines the importance of finding out how widespread the infection is in the UK population. All policy hinges on this, yet no-one has any idea of how many people have the virus. As a matter of urgency, we need to test a randomised sample of the population to find this out. The Oxford team says it will begin testing a sample of the population for evidence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2. It should come as no surprise if, as more evidence comes in and we have a better idea of infection rates, we end up a different policy on Covid-19.
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Well worth crashing the economy then.....
I’m no virologist, but how is that the virus can kill some and display no symptoms in others? That’s quite a contrast in outcomes. |
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i heard of this research yesterday, sadly my enthusiasm was dampened as it has received lots of criticism from other academics, dodgy assumptions.
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at a minimum it does show how we need to test more.
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He would have been crucified for not taking actions which ensured crashing the economy injera, every other country has done it so they must be right. The criticism on here is that he should have done it sooner, but there is every chance that he has timed it better than most.
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Should be one heck of an Easter party..
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There was another model by The Royal Society of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, which estimated 23 million infected in the UK.
Are there other models to look at ? If not, then the official, panic mongering, Imperial College one is looking like an outlier. |
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Reminds me a bit of the Foot and Mouth in 2001.
6 million sheep and cattle slaughtered. |
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indeed tobermory, some of it has been described as academic posturing.
i am sure they are all trying but many are putting out research which isnt peer reviewed in the rush to get some answers. i dont understand the imperial people at all, it is a 13 year old model built to examine flu. they ignored covid data available from 24 january up until early march then when they put some of the actual data into the model they were horrified that the government policy of mitigation / herd immunity (which they decided on due to imperials earlier work) would lead to 250,000 deaths a number deemed too high. actual hospital admissions are double what imperial assumed. this model wasnt released until last week so wasnt peer reviewed and some academics have since criticised it. one chap who spent 30 years in public health has made some comparisons to foot and mouth (where imperial were also involved). let's hope we are now going in the right direction but some experts say a lock down without mass testing is pointless as many new cases will emerge as soon as we slack off. it really isnt an easy situation. probably 12-18 months for a vaccine, ffs. |
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nobody knows what's going on.
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good point lfc - how many did they slaughter but didn't have the disease
farmers stopping min and ag coming on their farms thinking they were bringing it with them etc espceially when those farms were clean etc all forgotten now of course except by some farmers |
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i was hoping for something a bit more sagacious when i saw you had posted lfc, i was counting on you to have cured corona before bed time.
you have let me down.... again  |
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Scientific research and study is a moveable feast. Interpretation of data as we know, depends on the interpreter..
Let’s not forget we were told early on ‘there’s no immunity’ to covid-19. Well there is as many, many people are thankfully recovering or never knew they had it. |
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 a smoothie nor a shrewdie |
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The 1.5 million who got letters stating the most vulnerable should be tested pronto, if there is a decent sized amount of them that have already had it without being knocked over then how encouraging would that be in relation to the healthy part of the population.
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If half the population is after having it,why are they looking for all the equipment like ventilators and building new hospitals now?
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hang on duffy you need the crisis to last long enough for the football season to be called off, you need to slow down a bit
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I think it possible I had it in January while in Bracknell, was quite illish for around a month though kept working, popped two ribs coughing. If there is a test out there I'll buy one out of interest. Those who have had it could get back to work straight after the peak, if it was policeable to do so.
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Let’s hope things don’t get as bad as ‘17-‘18. Between December and March in England and Wales there were 50k EXCESS winter deaths....over and above other deaths....
That’s 420 a day. 145 of those were respiratory deaths... The flu jab failed. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/excesswintermortalityinenglandandwales/2017to2018provisionaland2016to2017final |
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^^^ to your 8.22 post
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ignore rhat
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sorry jollyswagman , I can’t say it any simpler than that .
everyone thinks he knows what is going on , I once saw a rat coming out of a restaurant kitchen |
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The scientists seem quite confident in their forecasts of the duration , blinded ?
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Wouldn’t it be nice if we could all just hibernate for 6 months like hedgehogs
and wake up when it’s all over |
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Let’s face the facts that human beings may be wiped out , leaving only the humble hedgehog
would that be so bad ? |
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 that's more like it lfc |
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 very nice pa lapsy |
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an improvement jolly , thanks
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i am sure they are all trying but many are putting out research which isnt peer reviewed in the rush to get some answers.
I believe there's been more papers and research done about this coronavirus than anything before. Shows you the clamour to get on top of it but how much is also peer reviewed, etc. |
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A cute animal diversion from the fear
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All five hedgehogs in my little garden are sleeping soundly
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Good lfc,was worried with my two, getting a bit late tho april isn't unknown,1st time i saw the field mouse and his 3white feet this morning since november,he looked old.
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How does the study reconcile the fact that approximately 97,000 people in the UK have been tested with 9,529 having been confirmed positive?
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but could the government’s original policy of relying on herd immunity have been right all along?
That will come anyway regardless of whether they're relying on it. It's a case of which comes first, a vaccine or herd immunity. |
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