Numbers From The 50th Fatality compared to UK.

The Donald has stated that the USA wasn't built to be shut down and he's talking about weeks rather than months before getting back to normal

The Governor of New York has stated that trying to push down the curve will be like, in their case, the scene in The Perfect Storm where Clooney gave the boat full bore trying to climb over the Tsunami before it enveloped them.

why do you frame it as a total boris style lockdown?

we have a partial lock down, wuhan locked down, we certainly have not.

we are still sending mixed messages.

Those mixed messages suggest that there is continued disagreement at the heart of government on their course of actions.

A distasteful threasd.

No point including official figures from Iran.  It's a realistic possibility that it's more than every other country put together.

Pictures from the tube this morning were a disgrace.

People should not be going anyway except for:
1. Food
2. Meds
3. Once a day to exercise
4. To work if they are a key worker (food shop workers, delivery, food processing, NHS, police etc)

Spain introduced similar measures one week ago although they still allow everyone to go to work which is stupid.

Italy only just shut non-essential factory workers in the north which is also stupid.

France has the strongest lockdown in Europe.

Thanks CLYDEBANK for pointing out its not all negative news

The tube is Khan, patently the dummest decision in this whole saga.

Agree on the Iran figures.

Just seen health sec told people to go to work if they cannot work from home. Totally wrong advise given what Boris said last night. Time to replace Hancock with Hunt who has more experience running the NHS.

Agreed Cider. Utterly bonkers from TFL.

I'd say some good news is that Cheltenham and the Liverpool v AM match don't seem to have had a meaningful effect on the numbers.  As there are not a lot of serious cases/deaths in Cheltenham, Ireland or Liverpool.  So perhaps outside is much much safer than inside.

for all we know the mayor might want to close the tube but have been over ruled by the government.

or he may want usual services

If only key workers used the tube, it wouldn't be crowded.

Yes I heard Khan has been overruled. He (now I'm serious here) seemed to think going to bank holiday service would reduce demand.

testing, isolation and contact tracing are the standard way to deal with a pandemic and that is what south korea, taiwan, singapore and hong kong have done with some success.

the government was following a policy of mitigation and were keen on herd immunity, one of the cso or cmo even said so in parliament. government sources confirmed this approach. then when they changed course they denied this had been their strategy.

last week a government source told the press london would be locked down the following day, the press duly reported this and no doubt there was more bulk buying from the public. the next day the pm said that london would not be locked down.

the pm was asked if he was going to see his mum on mothers day and he said he hoped to, going against his own government's advice. come the weekend the government said he would skype his mum.

today gove went on itv and gave out advice contrary to government policy, he then reappeared on the bbc to correct his mistake. he didnt admit what he originally said was wrong, he said he wanted to clarify his comments.

the government are for more responsible than the mayor.

The Asian culture is so different to Europe it's just not a meaningful comparison.

Contact tracing is why the UK is so far behind comparable countries in the curve.

At some point, contact tracing becomes futile, not to mention impossible.

It's this continued insistence that no errors have been made, that every action taken is precisely what the Day 1 plan said they would do that will come back and bite them.

We can all understand and appreciate that this is a fast moving situation, there will be changes required, hindsight is not available in advance.
So acknowledge that, say it out loud.

But they can't and wont.

The number of confirmed cases of Covid-19 in prisons in England and Wales has more than trebled overnight, MPs have been told, as all jails have been placed under a restricted regime that will further limit inmates’ time out of cells.

It's good news if you are German or Irish.  They seem to be two European countries that have made good decisions

absolute tosh, it is the standard response to an epidemic. they paid more attention because of memory of sars. they didnt lock down as china had to.

t is what many experts say we should have done, and they said so ages ago. the w h o say it too.

if we had done it in the first place we wouldnt now be in the sh1t, but there may be hope as oxford modellers may have positive data.

https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/1242492890129055744

Angoose, I doubt anyone off the record will say it's all gone like clockwork. However there's a large salty section of the population that are desperate to find fault, rather than being supportive. The reality is that there is a balance between saving lives and destroying the country that's left.

there is a paywall there unfortunately.

Jolly, western societies do not have (and we do not want them to have) the powers of governments in China, Singapore, Taiwan etc. We have been through this.

We must not let this virus mean we end up being run like those countries.

the reality is you are talking sh1t cider (and so is gtrader, nop change there).

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238186-uks-scientific-advice-on-coronavirus-is-a-cause-for-concern/?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=echobox&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1584970878

https://bylinetimes.com/2020/03/23/covid-19-special-investigation-part-two-government-documents-reveal-concern-for-economic-and-business-impacts-prevented-early-action/

If you think Asian cultures are comparable to western Europe, I move that I'm not the one talking sh1t.

Jolly more and more governments are using phone data.

https://www.businessinsider.com/countries-tracking-citizens-phones-coronavirus-2020-3?r=US&IR=T#the-uk-isnt-tracking-yet-but-is-considering-it-11

The worst (or best) are the Asian countries you praise.

standard practice for dealing with pandemics is testing, isolation and contact tracing. it continues to be what the experts are saying should be done. maybe you should approach the w h o and tell them they have it wrong.

Why is a country that has London, and is a major hub for international travel, miles behind Italy, France and Spain.

'Standard practice' in countries that have different privacy rights.

if you dont know who has it you are flying blind. if the oxford modellers are correct it may be much more widespread than was thought and we may not face a second wave. if you dont test you dont find.

miles behind those countries in what way?

People passing away who are covid 19 positive.

Mar 24, 2020 -- 6:40PM, Cider wrote:

Angoose, I doubt anyone off the record will say it's all gone like clockwork. However there's a large salty section of the population that are desperate to find fault, rather than being supportive. The reality is that there is a balance between saving lives and destroying the country that's left.

So why not say it publicly ?

As I've said, the public can appreciate the huge task that they have on their hands and a bit of humility and a departure from the standard political speak would be welcome.

But no. Continue to fail to provide straight answers to straight questions.

jolly I am not saying do not test. I am saying do not use mobile phone tracking to trace and compel people to comply on that basis. It sets a very dangerous precedent for the future.

I can't believe that Oxford model jolly.  The headline is clearly BS

we are a couple of weeks behind, hopefully the more serious approach being taken will mean that in a couple of weeks time we dont move too far along the curve. if the oxford modellers are correct, half the country may already have it but not seriously. if we had done more testing in the first place and known this then the more stringent measures would have been unnecessary.

You didn't say why you think we're behind.

You only have to look at the figures for The Diamond Princess to realise it's BS

Mar 24, 2020 -- 6:55PM, Angoose wrote:

Mar 24, 2020 --  5:40PM, Cider wrote:Angoose, I doubt anyone off the record will say it's all gone like clockwork. However there's a large salty section of the population that are desperate to find fault, rather than being supportive. The reality is that there is a balance between saving lives and destroying the country that's left.So why not say it publicly ?As I've said, the public can appreciate the huge task that they have on their hands and a bit of humility and a departure from the standard political speak would be welcome. But no. Continue to fail to provide straight answers to straight questions.

I genuinely haven't witnessed any major shirking. Do you have any examples?

we need good news clydebank, lets hope it is. again it shows you need to test

personally i do not trust the imperial model at all. again the experts say standard practice is to use two different models. we relied on one that wasnt built for the current purpose and had incorrect assumptions.

more chinese visted italy, lots of italians went to a big festival in spain. there will be many, many reasons.

all western governments have failed, imo.

More Chinese visited Italy than the UK since the outbreak. Is that just a guess?

The reason is our contact tracing was superior.

A lot of Chinese workers in Italy in the fashion industry.

If it was down to me the first thing I'd do before I started my modelling would be to trawl through the data from The Diamond Princess.

The reason is our contact tracing was superior.

we stopped that policy

Yes, because it ceases to become viable or useful.

as there were loads of infections and everyone was tested.

so why do the people successful at controlling do it and the w h o recommend it?

get on the phone cider, you know more than the people who actually have experience in the field.

Contact tracing wasn't viable because we hadn't got the testing set up.  Sure plenty of other countries in the same boat, but clearly it was a huge error.

Northern Italy has a large Chinese workforce. Flights to Wuhan are regular. With horrendous pollution and being population, there are some clear reasons for their situation.

Spain makes less sense. Views?

we were being warned late january

Ageing population

It will be very important when the cases start to come down, as it will let us know when we are ready to relax measures and where.

Supermarkets starting ‘distancing’ at last. Waitrose were limiting the numbers in the shop at any one time today.

lots and lots of factors injera.

there are no easy answers but to complain of malcontents commenting after the event is wrong, leading experts in the field think the uk got it wrong and said so at the time.

Jolly - do you think Witty and Vallance have been sidelined for a reason?

Anyone can say 'lock everything down immediately' from behind a keyboard or a you tube video. If all you needed to do was save the most amount of lives possible from covid 19 you would just have a permanent full lock down. They're juggling saving lives with saving the economy for everyone.

"Nearly half of the Diamond Princess cruise ship passengers and crew who tested positive for the novel coronavirus were asymptomatic at the time they were tested, according to a new report from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Of the 712 passengers and crew members of the ship who tested positive for coronavirus, 331 -- or 46.5% -- were asymptomatic at the time of testing, the CDC said.
The agency said that the high rate of asymptomatic infections could partly explain the high rate of infection among cruise ship passengers and crew."

Given that there is a long time period when infected people aren't symptomatic, it suggests that the percentage of infected people who show no symptons during the total length of their infection is small

"Jolly - do you think Witty and Vallance have been sidelined for a reason?"

Obviously, but we'd only be guessing what the reason was.  I don't envy their position!!   Must be incredibly stressful and they are only doing what they believe at the time is right.

I think had their initial decisions not seemed to be ill advised, they'd probably still be doing it.

they are experts in their fields, there would though have been lots of experts who wouldnt have all agreed. did the government listen to the right experts?

vallance and cummings are said to have favoured the original herd immunity approach (i think that was insane). the imperial model did not use the available data and when they did, the 250,000 expected deaths caused an about turn.

a couple of  days ago the government released its scientific evidence, it ignored some of it -

"In most scenarios, highly effective contact tracing and case isolation is enough to control a new outbreak of COVID-19 within 3 months".

https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S2214-109X%2820%2930074-7

i do of course accept that i know nothing, however i reserve the right to talk rubbish on betfair anyway (just like everyone else here)

I do feel they were surprised by the rapid rise in infections. This was all planned from the outset, but the plans were expedited.

Our collective wisdom ain’t bad....I think.

Johnson seems to be getting it just about right despite the terrible situation we are in,least worst would be a good result in this scenario. If govt tightens up on this a little we may see better figures over the period,would hate to be in their jobs just now.

Yes, say that you are not going to do something, then come back the next day and say that you are going to do the thing that you said you weren't going to do, but that was the plan all along. Playing a blinder.

you would hope countries reaching 50 deaths after others had reached 50 deaths would see slower
rates of growth of deaths just by simple learning from what works and what does not, as found by
the first countries to be hit.

the number of major infection sites will play a part too.

Doesn't appear to have worked like that for Spain ?

why, spain didnt have advantage of italy findings, they are just behind them on timescale.

we have had a week or two to learn

clydebank sadly that research is being rubbished, more carp assumptions.

we need some good news ffs