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Numbers From The 50th Fatality compared to UK.
Numbers From The 50th Fatality compared to UK.
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we need good news clydebank, lets hope it is. again it shows you need to test
personally i do not trust the imperial model at all. again the experts say standard practice is to use two different models. we relied on one that wasnt built for the current purpose and had incorrect assumptions. |
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more chinese visted italy, lots of italians went to a big festival in spain. there will be many, many reasons.
all western governments have failed, imo. |
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More Chinese visited Italy than the UK since the outbreak. Is that just a guess?
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The reason is our contact tracing was superior.
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A lot of Chinese workers in Italy in the fashion industry.
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If it was down to me the first thing I'd do before I started my modelling would be to trawl through the data from The Diamond Princess.
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The reason is our contact tracing was superior.
we stopped that policy |
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Yes, because it ceases to become viable or useful.
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as there were loads of infections and everyone was tested.
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so why do the people successful at controlling do it and the w h o recommend it?
get on the phone cider, you know more than the people who actually have experience in the field. |
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Contact tracing wasn't viable because we hadn't got the testing set up. Sure plenty of other countries in the same boat, but clearly it was a huge error.
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Northern Italy has a large Chinese workforce. Flights to Wuhan are regular. With horrendous pollution and being population, there are some clear reasons for their situation.
Spain makes less sense. Views? |
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we were being warned late january
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Ageing population
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It will be very important when the cases start to come down, as it will let us know when we are ready to relax measures and where.
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Supermarkets starting ‘distancing’ at last. Waitrose were limiting the numbers in the shop at any one time today.
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lots and lots of factors injera.
there are no easy answers but to complain of malcontents commenting after the event is wrong, leading experts in the field think the uk got it wrong and said so at the time. |
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Jolly - do you think Witty and Vallance have been sidelined for a reason?
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Anyone can say 'lock everything down immediately' from behind a keyboard or a you tube video. If all you needed to do was save the most amount of lives possible from covid 19 you would just have a permanent full lock down. They're juggling saving lives with saving the economy for everyone.
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"Nearly half of the Diamond Princess cruise ship passengers and crew who tested positive for the novel coronavirus were asymptomatic at the time they were tested, according to a new report from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Of the 712 passengers and crew members of the ship who tested positive for coronavirus, 331 -- or 46.5% -- were asymptomatic at the time of testing, the CDC said. The agency said that the high rate of asymptomatic infections could partly explain the high rate of infection among cruise ship passengers and crew." Given that there is a long time period when infected people aren't symptomatic, it suggests that the percentage of infected people who show no symptons during the total length of their infection is small |
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"Jolly - do you think Witty and Vallance have been sidelined for a reason?"
Obviously, but we'd only be guessing what the reason was. I don't envy their position!! Must be incredibly stressful and they are only doing what they believe at the time is right. |
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I think had their initial decisions not seemed to be ill advised, they'd probably still be doing it.
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they are experts in their fields, there would though have been lots of experts who wouldnt have all agreed. did the government listen to the right experts?
vallance and cummings are said to have favoured the original herd immunity approach (i think that was insane). the imperial model did not use the available data and when they did, the 250,000 expected deaths caused an about turn. a couple of days ago the government released its scientific evidence, it ignored some of it - "In most scenarios, highly effective contact tracing and case isolation is enough to control a new outbreak of COVID-19 within 3 months". https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S2214-109X%2820%2930074-7 |
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i do of course accept that i know nothing, however i reserve the right to talk rubbish on betfair anyway (just like everyone else here)
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I do feel they were surprised by the rapid rise in infections. This was all planned from the outset, but the plans were expedited.
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Our collective wisdom ain’t bad....I think.
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Johnson seems to be getting it just about right despite the terrible situation we are in,least worst would be a good result in this scenario. If govt tightens up on this a little we may see better figures over the period,would hate to be in their jobs just now.
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Yes, say that you are not going to do something, then come back the next day and say that you are going to do the thing that you said you weren't going to do, but that was the plan all along. Playing a blinder.
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you would hope countries reaching 50 deaths after others had reached 50 deaths would see slower
rates of growth of deaths just by simple learning from what works and what does not, as found by the first countries to be hit. the number of major infection sites will play a part too. |
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Doesn't appear to have worked like that for Spain ?
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why, spain didnt have advantage of italy findings, they are just behind them on timescale.
we have had a week or two to learn |
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clydebank sadly that research is being rubbished, more carp assumptions.
we need some good news ffs  |