Chit Chat
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Day 1 in each respective country is the day that the first death was reported, Spain Day 20 figure is their Day 19 figure, Day 20 is tomorrow
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UK is at Day 17, total 233
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We are not seeing the slow down in Italy that China and Iran claimed to have around a month in.
Why? | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Scary figures lads, stay indoors if at all possible.
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imo, we cant trust chinese and iranian numbers.
any policy that leads to a change takes time to show up in the numbers - its like turning an oil tanker around. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/irans-coronavirus-problem-lot-worse-it-seems/607663/
that suggests millions infected in iran. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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i hope jennifer is a fruit loop because that is scary.
satellite photos showed mass graves in iran, surely they would see the same in china? | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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https://twitter.com/jenniferatntd/status/1241082360323596289?s=20
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dp9s5V-rBtg&feature=youtu.be
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are you trying to get out of dodge jucel or are you staying put?
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Not sure yet, I'm staying put at the moment, done 5 days at home now without stranger contact.
Have enough food etc, see how it goes. I would prefer to be in the UK but I don't fancy the travel and flights to get there! | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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How does knowing the number of deaths help?
It didn't stop people going out and potentially spreading the virus. It hasn't stopped panic buying. The pictures from Italy are horrific and make a story but do they do anything more than frighten people even more? | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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it wont take long for us and or them to be locked down and no one coming in or out.
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It is the only way imo Jollyswagman,the italians are begging the world to.
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So what are the real China figures daily now?
Are the deaths their still growing and growing? | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Angoose, it could be misleading to have death #1 as your baseline when the numbers are this exponential. Victim 1 clings on a couple of extra days in one country compared with victim 1 in another country and you're already way out. Early cases will be too random / numbers to small to be reliable. Better to have your baseline day as the day of death #20 or #50
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Italy death rate slowing down a lot (by scale)
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Can't do anything about social media chumps but the mainstream media should be embargoed from producing and sharing images of queues and empty shelves.
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Just updated 1000 new cases wtf.
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Really hope for the Italians that figures start dropping soon, they are into day 10/11(?) of lockingdown, in theory after 3-4 days they might if the lockdown theory is effective(and adhered to)
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lockdown working but people tend to get carried away by the numbers ...if you didn't have a lockdown those numbers by now would have been off the scale
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If there was a hypothetical "perfect " lockdown (I.e. Zero contact with anybody else)
Then would expect maximum number of new infections to be after 5-7 days (symptoms show so are tested), & maximum number of new deaths 2 weeks or so later . Of course things in Italy are a million miles away from being perfect. Who is being tested, there is still a small bit of social interaction, the hospitals are at/over capacity. All a bit of a very serious mess. UK government are talking about 12 weeks to "turn the tide" . Not many good news stories yet. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No time for Simon Harris (Irish health honcho) but said this re sneaky pub openings "We will remember those who undermined the health and well-being of our people when it comes to renewing licences, and we will never forget them either"
Up ou dat boy,now your talking. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Angoose, just a thought. Basing your starting point on the first death is statistically probably dodgy as there is so much randomness as to when that would happen, as is the case with very small "samples". As it goes forward I'd probably readjust your starting point as to say when 10 deaths or 20 or 50 are hit, and maybe add additional columns adjusting for per-population (will be simple enough assuming that's in Excel!).
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he shut the stable door after the horses have bolted.thats an old statement that needs thinking about.
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I presume that regards Cheltenham Brassneck, i agree, though the meeting itself and Uk policy was a hindrance.
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and a bigger problem is that Italy had their stable door shut.
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i am looking at the maths,PA,they look depressing
 .The horses are likely to do a lot of damage before they are caught | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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France has a disproportionate number of critical cases. Things could get really grim there next few days.
I suspect the UK critical number of just 20 is just not being updated :( | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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It's not 'panic' buying it's logical buying
In reality Cider, it's both | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Yea angoose I'm sure there's a lot you could play around with. It's (in a very sad way) is an interesting thing to think about if you like playing with such things. I.e. is the growth %-per-day (at least in the early stages before it saturates) in a population dependent on the population size, or not, as long as that population is suffiently large? I'm wondering about that. I'm thinking in early stages no, but as time goes on the population size will matter at it'll start restricting it. I think I mentioned elsewhere the world population one so that's .. everything and maybe another baseline measurement you could add. Or "all Europe", presuming our health care sytems are generally better than say Africa.
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Bad today,worse tomorrow,worse again the day after andso on, the radical step of world locking down for a while to try and contain til an effective vacine seems only solution to me.
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