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Things are bad in Italy
Things are bad in Italy
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Replies: 106
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No expert fella...but hiding in your house for the rest of your life doesn't seem to be a long term solution to me
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Herd immunity has been abandoned anyway according to hancock..
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The big problem with advice in this kind of situation is if it's wrong or the laws of unintended consequences kicking in.Things in China appear to have calmed remarkably. Also some countries appear completey unaffected, China must have a shed load of cheap medical gear.
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It's nuts though bnb. Leo Varadker shuts down all schools, why don't we. Yes as Ireland has chosen to do something, we should follow like sheep even though it's against our own expert judgement. It's absurd to be honest.
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In uncharted waters people will choose different routes.
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The jury’s out pp.
We have plans in place. Let’s believe in expert advice and make good decisions. |
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Scotland going to ignore hancocks isolating over 70,s advice,
the herd immunity effort been rowed back because numbers for 50 million volunteers wernt looking great,  ,hancock/doris week after week, we,re following the advice,24 hrs after his latest advice hancock on 2 live tv stations throws expert scientist valance under the no 24 bus, looks like we,re back to who needs experts today |
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None essential travel only to the US, so the rich can travel there but we isn't allowed
Deffo another agenda behind all this |
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Of course there is
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regards doris/hancock begging for any company to make ventilators
surely the patents,safety regs/standards/ testing etc,etc means this is just spouting rollocks |
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Google William Hanage the Guardian Epidemologist Herd Immunity Britain.
This is what your goverment was trying to do,others on here colluding with them and to top it all being told to stfu. |
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Aye, when you land the job as Health Secretary give me a shout.
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Your house is on fire, and the people whom you have trusted with your care are not trying to put it out. Even though they knew it was coming, and could see what happened to the neighbours as they were overwhelmed with terrifying speed, the UK government has inexplicably chosen to encourage the flames, in the misguided notion that somehow they will be able to control them.
When I first heard about this, I could not believe it. I research and teach the evolution and epidemiology of infectious disease at Harvard’s Chan School of Public Health. My colleagues here in the US, even as they are reeling from the stumbling response of the Donald Trump administration to the crisis, assumed that reports of the UK policy were satire – an example of the wry humour for which the country is famed. But they are all too real. Britain goes it alone over coronavirus. We can only hope the gamble pays off Devi Sridhar Read more Let me take the arguments on their merits. The stated aim has been to achieve “herd immunity” in order to manage the outbreak and prevent a catastrophic “second wave” next winter – even if Matt Hancock has tried to put that particular genie back in the bottle this weekend. A large proportion of the population is at lower risk of developing severe disease: roughly speaking anyone up to the age of 40. So the reasoning goes that even though in a perfect world we’d not want anyone to take the risk of infection, generating immunity in younger people is a way of protecting the population as a whole. Advertisement We talk about vaccines generating herd immunity, so why is this different? Because this is not a vaccine. This is an actual pandemic that will make a very large number of people sick, and some of them will die. Even though the mortality rate is likely quite low, a small fraction of a very large number is still a large number. And the mortality rate will climb when the NHS is overwhelmed. This would be expected to happen, even if we make the generous assumption that the government were entirely successful in restricting the virus to the low-risk population, at the peak of the outbreak the numbers requiring critical care would be greater than the number of beds available. This is made worse by the fact that people who are badly ill tend to remain so for a long time, which increases the burden. Guardian Today: the headlines, the analysis, the debate - sent direct to you Read more And of course you can’t restrict it to this age group. Think of all the people aged between 20 and 40 who work in healthcare, or old people’s homes. You don’t need many introductions into settings like these for what we might coyly call “severe outcomes”. In Washington State, nearly all the deaths reported so far have been associated with nursing homes. Is everyone in a high-risk group supposed to withdraw themselves from society for six months until they can emerge once the (so far entirely imaginary) second wave has been averted? About that second wave: let me be clear. Second waves are real things, and we have seen them in flu pandemics. This is not a flu pandemic. Flu rules do not apply. There might well be a second wave, I honestly don’t know. But vulnerable people should not be exposed to a virus right now in the service of a hypothetical future. Keeping people safe means self-isolation if you develop symptoms, but the official advice here is also misleading. While it is of paramount importance that sick people stay at home to avoid infecting others, it is increasingly clear that transmission can occur before symptoms develop. We know this is true from modelling and observational studies. I have seen it happen myself. We do not know how often it occurs or how important it is in the epidemiology, but it definitely does happen. However, arguments about the case fatality rate, the transmission parameters and presymptomatic transmission all miss the point. This virus is capable of shutting down countries. You should not want to be the next after Wuhan, Iran, Italy or Spain. In those places, the healthcare systems have broken down. In Italy, the choices of whom to save and whom to allow to die are real. You should instead look to the example of South Korea, which, through a combination of intense surveillance and social distancing, appears to have gained some semblance of control over the virus. We can learn from South Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong and Taiwan, all of which have so far done a good job mitigating the worst outcomes despite having reported cases early in the pandemic, and in the case of South Korea, suffering a substantial outbreak. This coronavirus crisis has forced the retirement of pantomime Johnson Andrew Rawnsley Andrew Rawnsley Read more Advertisement The UK should not be trying to create herd immunity, that will take care of itself. Policy should be directed at slowing the outbreak to a (more) manageable rate. What this looks like is strong social distancing. Anyone who can work from home, should. People who do not yet work from home should be encouraged to do so. Employers should guarantee sick pay, including for contacts of known cases, and do everything they can to discourage the practice of “presenteeism”. You should not shake hands. Not with anyone. You should wash your hands for 20 seconds several times a day and whenever you enter your home (or someone else’s home). Call a halt to large gatherings. Educate people about masks and how they should be reserved for the medical professionals who need them. All this and more should have started weeks ago. Deciding whether to close schools is hard; they do so much more than just education. But this is a pandemic, and so you should expect they will be shut sooner or later. In Hong Kong, they have been shut for weeks. If you hear any talking head on TV explain that kids don’t get sick, remember that doesn’t mean kids cannot be infected and transmit. It’s probably a good idea to hold off on visits to Nana and Grandpa. The most fundamental function of a government is to keep its people safe. It is from this that it derives its authority, the confidence of the people and its legitimacy. Nobody should be under the illusion that this is something that can be dodged through somehow manipulating a virus that we are only beginning to understand. This will not pass you by; this is not a tornado, it is a hurricane. Don’t panic, but do prepare. If your government won’t help you, do it yourself. |
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Your house is on fire, and the people whom you have trusted with your care are not trying to put it out. Even though they knew it was coming, and could see what happened to the neighbours as they were overwhelmed with terrifying speed, the UK government has inexplicably chosen to encourage the flames, in the misguided notion that somehow they will be able to control them.
When I first heard about this, I could not believe it. I research and teach the evolution and epidemiology of infectious disease at Harvard’s Chan School of Public Health. My colleagues here in the US, even as they are reeling from the stumbling response of the Donald Trump administration to the crisis, assumed that reports of the UK policy were satire – an example of the wry humour for which the country is famed. But they are all too real. Britain goes it alone over coronavirus. We can only hope the gamble pays off Devi Sridhar Read more Let me take the arguments on their merits. The stated aim has been to achieve “herd immunity” in order to manage the outbreak and prevent a catastrophic “second wave” next winter – even if Matt Hancock has tried to put that particular genie back in the bottle this weekend. A large proportion of the population is at lower risk of developing severe disease: roughly speaking anyone up to the age of 40. So the reasoning goes that even though in a perfect world we’d not want anyone to take the risk of infection, generating immunity in younger people is a way of protecting the population as a whole. Advertisement We talk about vaccines generating herd immunity, so why is this different? Because this is not a vaccine. This is an actual pandemic that will make a very large number of people sick, and some of them will die. Even though the mortality rate is likely quite low, a small fraction of a very large number is still a large number. And the mortality rate will climb when the NHS is overwhelmed. This would be expected to happen, even if we make the generous assumption that the government were entirely successful in restricting the virus to the low-risk population, at the peak of the outbreak the numbers requiring critical care would be greater than the number of beds available. This is made worse by the fact that people who are badly ill tend to remain so for a long time, which increases the burden. Guardian Today: the headlines, the analysis, the debate - sent direct to you Read more And of course you can’t restrict it to this age group. Think of all the people aged between 20 and 40 who work in healthcare, or old people’s homes. You don’t need many introductions into settings like these for what we might coyly call “severe outcomes”. In Washington State, nearly all the deaths reported so far have been associated with nursing homes. Is everyone in a high-risk group supposed to withdraw themselves from society for six months until they can emerge once the (so far entirely imaginary) second wave has been averted? About that second wave: let me be clear. Second waves are real things, and we have seen them in flu pandemics. This is not a flu pandemic. Flu rules do not apply. There might well be a second wave, I honestly don’t know. But vulnerable people should not be exposed to a virus right now in the service of a hypothetical future. Keeping people safe means self-isolation if you develop symptoms, but the official advice here is also misleading. While it is of paramount importance that sick people stay at home to avoid infecting others, it is increasingly clear that transmission can occur before symptoms develop. We know this is true from modelling and observational studies. I have seen it happen myself. We do not know how often it occurs or how important it is in the epidemiology, but it definitely does happen. However, arguments about the case fatality rate, the transmission parameters and presymptomatic transmission all miss the point. This virus is capable of shutting down countries. You should not want to be the next after Wuhan, Iran, Italy or Spain. In those places, the healthcare systems have broken down. In Italy, the choices of whom to save and whom to allow to die are real. You should instead look to the example of South Korea, which, through a combination of intense surveillance and social distancing, appears to have gained some semblance of control over the virus. We can learn from South Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong and Taiwan, all of which have so far done a good job mitigating the worst outcomes despite having reported cases early in the pandemic, and in the case of South Korea, suffering a substantial outbreak. This coronavirus crisis has forced the retirement of pantomime Johnson Andrew Rawnsley Andrew Rawnsley Read more Advertisement The UK should not be trying to create herd immunity, that will take care of itself. Policy should be directed at slowing the outbreak to a (more) manageable rate. What this looks like is strong social distancing. Anyone who can work from home, should. People who do not yet work from home should be encouraged to do so. Employers should guarantee sick pay, including for contacts of known cases, and do everything they can to discourage the practice of “presenteeism”. You should not shake hands. Not with anyone. You should wash your hands for 20 seconds several times a day and whenever you enter your home (or someone else’s home). Call a halt to large gatherings. Educate people about masks and how they should be reserved for the medical professionals who need them. All this and more should have started weeks ago. Deciding whether to close schools is hard; they do so much more than just education. But this is a pandemic, and so you should expect they will be shut sooner or later. In Hong Kong, they have been shut for weeks. If you hear any talking head on TV explain that kids don’t get sick, remember that doesn’t mean kids cannot be infected and transmit. It’s probably a good idea to hold off on visits to Nana and Grandpa. The most fundamental function of a government is to keep its people safe. It is from this that it derives its authority, the confidence of the people and its legitimacy. Nobody should be under the illusion that this is something that can be dodged through somehow manipulating a virus that we are only beginning to understand. This will not pass you by; this is not a tornado, it is a hurricane. Don’t panic, but do prepare. If your government won’t help you, do it yourself. |
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Thank you, The Giggilo.
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The Guardian never wrong about owt of course
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You may well be an Express man but hey ho what harm.
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I don't read any paper, but 'hey ho' thanks.
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I found that article very vague.
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No worries,you have a very strong view on the guardian for a fella that reads no papers.
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The Guardian
What had become an irrelevant load of shyte Delighted to have a crisis to report on , and push more shyte on its followers |
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I know Guardian Readers, they are sheep no different to Sun or Mirror readers, they just think they are better, utter conceit.
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Lol? Is that it? More scorn from a Guardian man, you couldn't make it up.
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I've already said that, are you a tad slow?
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Apologies if so, I'll desist.
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https://twitter.com/Prof_S_Taylor/status/1238598239902994433
https://twitter.com/MaddowBlog/status/1238279302468288512 A bit of WHO or MSNBC take your pick,there are lots more.. |
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Here in Denmark when the number of infected rose to 500 yesterday all schools, universities and most of the public sector was shut down immediately. Events with 100+ people is now prohibited and a new law was rushed through. Many people here thought the response came rather late..
Deaths 0. |
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"something went wrong"
Going to blame each other (China, USA, Russia)?? |
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I should imagine anyone over a certain age wouldn't need to told not to mix with others unless they have to.
And keep off public transport as well. |
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can never understand brexiteers/tory/right wing people they treat the same article depending on which paper prints it,its not the guardians opinion its a sciencetists
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ifsomeones tipping me a 33,s winner I,m not fussed if its the guardian or express to be honest
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Denmark 864 cases but they started fsr too late like us and three deaths..
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Denmark 864 cases but they started fsr too late like us and three deaths..
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Denmark 864 cases but they started fsr too late like us and three deaths..
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Denmark 864 cases but they started fsr too late like us and three deaths..
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