Chris Whitty and his "behavioural science"

just thank the lord people with ebola,sars etc didn't get bored and go ot infecting people for a giggle,


what I don't get,cant get my head round is if commons,football clubs etc have the means ,to get people tested why are they going out of their way to sort of brag ,that their not testing players,staff,mp,s etc, makes not an iota of sense,
anyone who has the means,way of getting tested and is proved at a later date he,s had it and possibly spread it should be put up against a wall and shot

they don't want isolation when its spreading, its after that they come save the day

New York is suspending theatre performances on Broadway.

Whittys Irish counterpart Tony Holohan believes the closures of schools etc now, is an important part of the strategy for ultimately protecting older and vulnerable people.

an experiment in nudge theory on a population of 66 million - maybe it's classic dom?

in a caring society

lets hope their right but you,ve got to really fancy yourself to think your going to micro manage a possible 40 million patients

"Stay at home for seven days if you have a cough or fever."

None of the journalists asked how effective this advice is in the context of the (possible) 14-day incubation period.

jeremy hunt, now chair of health select comittee, on c4 news now. he's surprised at approach and pointing out the countries who have done well have taken a very different approach to us.

Btw, re my OP, I have no problem with people being well, just don't treat us like we're kids.

When I worked in a corporate environment, I noticed that there are some very astute and intelligent people in relatively junior positions.  The reason they don't progress isn't necessarily because they lack ability, it's often because they don't want the responsibility or put in 15 hours per day or their face doesn't fit.

I don’t reckon many of the journos have quite got their heads around the idea of social distancing ... they are literally spitting their questions at politicians as they doorstep them.

And as far as the op goes there are a lot of selfish people about who won’t follow restrictions or won’t follow them for long.

You'll always get people like that. I bet you have people, as I write, intentionally sneezing into their mate's face in the pub, thinking it's a laugh.

He or his buddy also said it wasn’t worth grounding flights, then said ‘too late anyway.’ Oh great..

Too late to stop flights but too soon to do other stuff. Unbelievable.

I'm not usually one to go off on one like this because I usually seek out the opinion of people who know more than me on any given issue but as I keep saying, the experts don't seem to agree.

They’re talking in riddles.

Too late to call off Cheltenham

too early to call off Aintree

Devastating news: Lib Dems have cancelled their spring conference in York.

Correct. The experts don’t agree.
But some experts are more expert than others.
Fingers crossed the experts influencing the decisions are the best, after all they have risen to top positions.

You'll always get people like that. I bet you have people, as I write, intentionally sneezing into their mate's face in the pub, thinking it's a laugh.

i believe a sportsman in america went around touching all and sundry in a locker room to show he wasnt worried about catching covid and has since tested positive.

I agree, RC.

What concerns me is the different view taken by the experts in so many other countries and WHO.

Mar 12, 2020 -- 2:39PM, Injera wrote:

Devastating news: Lib Dems have cancelled their spring conference in York.

Does that man all three of them that were going to attend will now have to find something else to do?

depends if your worries as a government are money,growth or peoples lives, you don't need an expert to tell you china,s lockdown has broughy some measure of control

This 500 person restriction seems a bit simplistic.
People density should surely be more appropriate, if a little complicated.
500 people in old Trafford might be fine but 500 at Accrington Stanley a little riskier.
Public places might require new safety limits as per the one person a table at restaurants.

Fella on ITV's good morning thinks 100,000 have it.

worse than that the 2 amigo,s running the show aiming for this herd immunity say 60% of the population have to get it for it to work,roughly 40 million

There's a guy works down the chip shop swears he's Elvis

Poor Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance are looking every day like future scapegoats.

When things get much worse and the media and people get their pitchforks out in fury,
it is obvious Johnson and the Government will hide behind these Patsys, who will surely fall on their swords.

They must know by now what is coming

It's sad, so sad (so sad)
It's a sad, sad situation
And it's getting more and more absurd

cummings advertising for 60 million volunteers to catch it, brexiteers of course

Perhaps everyone under 50 without serious health issues should be given coronavirus. The fatality rate at this age comes in way under 0.1% in Italy and S Korea. The UK says the difference between confirmed and actual in UK is out by a factor of 20, it's also likely to be out more in under 50's as they're unlikely to be hospitalised.

If we assume the figures for Italy and South Korea are out by a factor of 20, we get a fatality rate of under 0.005% (1 in 20,000). At this rate, exposing 40 million under 50's results in under 2,000 deaths, but once the 40 million recover the UK will have herd immunity.

Perhaps Johnson and his cronies should volunteer to be the first voluntary recipients of the virus.
Will need a very strong needle to penetrate Patel's @rse though

1.) Why is the UK the only country that has suddenly decided herd immunity is some sort of goal?

2a.) Is herd immunity even possible for this novel corona virus? We don't know much about this thing given its limited timeline. We don't have immunity to the other corona viruses since most people end up with a cold/cough/flu each year. (2b.) Corona viruses continually evolve into different strains each season, why won't this one, rendering any herd immunity to this first strain almost immediately redundant?

3.) Our rates of hospital beds and intensive care beds are embarrassingly low (pro rata Germany for example has four times as many intensive care beds, Lithuania has three times as many regular hospital beds as us, and so on...). Ambivalence to a large percentage of the population getting this, a percentage of whom dying, and a bigger percentage inevitably requiring care, even among those outside the high risk groups seems foolish. Death rates for all diseases go up in an epidemic, because the epidemic absorbs so many resources.

Personally I think the goalposts are being moved because a b0llock has been well and truly dropped.

lets forget if we can a possible 500,000 deaths, their figures which show  no idea how long it would take to infect 40 million people,show there,d be 8 million people who,d need specialist hospital treatment, of those breathing machines that are needed of as last monday the uk had 51, usa had 151,000 of the same machine, maybe farage could borrow a few of Donald
these 2 amigo,s running the show are now all in, balls deep with their theory ,with no armbands or rubber rings

these 2 behavioural experts,alongside loony media as I predicted this morning have now caused massive panic buying in uk,s biggest supermarkets, absolute fooooking idiots

Boost To The Economy As Supermarket Takings Soar, reports The Torygraph .........

sky national news showed a video of empty supermarkets in Italy saying they still had a month of isolation to go and no food in shops
what did sky,behavourial experts ,doris and super forecaster expect uk public to do on a Friday weekly shopping day, we,re been led by absolute thick cooooooooonts

still no couscous around here- i am devastated

cardboard or budgie seed a decent replacement

look at Italy on news and doris barnpots want 40 million to get this and expect 8 million to be seriously ill

swagman - in a national crisis  you are a disgrace with your comments

there is no panic buying with london pride or abbot ale

so stop it

New Zealand are set to introduce the world's toughest border controls despite having only six confirmed cases!

I've been wondering about the government's advice to self-isolate for seven days if you show symptoms.  Why seven days?  Surely you could be infectious for longer?

A doctor on LBC - a guest speaker, not a caller - said that we think you are no longer infectious once you stop displaying symptoms which is why we've given this advice to stay at hope for a week to two weeks.

New Zealand are set to introduce the world's toughest border controls despite having only six confirmed cases!



The are telling all people coming in to the country - visitors and residents - to self-isolate for 14 days.

Matt Frei just said that research shows if China had taken drastic action two (?) weeks earlier, 90% of infections could have been prevented.  If they'd have delayed implementing restrictions, it would have been 60x worse.

* three weeks earlier and 97% prevention.

is this our plan?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rblfKREj50o

A doctor speaking now on LBC said that UK govt policy is totally contrary to WHO guidelines.

there may be no immunity so people could get re-infected

https://twitter.com/willieckerslike/status/1238714510401290240/photo/1

Jolly, I haven't read the link or viewed the videos but tbf, the consensus seems to be that re-infection is highly unlikely.


I thought this was a good post yesterday:



inner city sumo 13 Mar 20 16:49 Joined: 18 Aug 02 | Topic/replies: 6,549 | Blogger: inner city sumo's blog


1.) Why is the UK the only country that has suddenly decided herd immunity is some sort of goal?

2a.) Is herd immunity even possible for this novel corona virus? We don't know much about this thing given its limited timeline. We don't have immunity to the other corona viruses since most people end up with a cold/cough/flu each year. (2b.) Corona viruses continually evolve into different strains each season, why won't this one, rendering any herd immunity to this first strain almost immediately redundant?

3.) Our rates of hospital beds and intensive care beds are embarrassingly low (pro rata Germany for example has four times as many intensive care beds, Lithuania has three times as many regular hospital beds as us, and so on...). Ambivalence to a large percentage of the population getting this, a percentage of whom dying, and a bigger percentage inevitably requiring care, even among those outside the high risk groups seems foolish. Death rates for all diseases go up in an epidemic, because the epidemic absorbs so many resources.

Personally I think the goalposts are being moved because a b0llock has been well and truly dropped.

His point no 2 is interesting but I think we need a virologist to answer these questions.


I was told by a doctor that by getting the flu jab each year, you do build up a cumulative immunity.

ta

this bloke on lbc now is apoplectic.

it does seem daft to do less tests.

it does seem daft to do less tests.



Yes it does.  I suppose the thinking is that there are still many other viruses circulating.

However, it would be useful to know if you've had it so you're aware that you probably won't get it again.

don cummings, doris,raab,gove,patel,williamson, rees mugg, grayling running the country in a midst of a world crisis and only surprise is people are surprised it,s turning in to a shote show,
this is going to bite the tory,s for years they wouldn't entertain the 2008 financial crisis been to blame for crash blaming labour,still blame crash today 12 years on for any problems,yet they,ll be blaming corona 24/7 /52 weeks a year for years to come
reading Gordon browns article in paper yesterday despersate times when your left wishing he was back in charge for a while

Spain has cancelled all flights in to their country.

The first thing I said when the outbreak in China hit the news was, that's it checks at the airports for all new arrivals.

We still haven't got them now.
While Russia clamped down immediately with a ban on all arrivals from China, and many more safeguards.
Russia has had very few cases.

So much conflicting and confusing advice...

Prof Paul Hunter on LBC just said that the flu and pneumonia vaccines will give you no protection whatsoever from COVID-19.


Yet on 5Live on Thursday night, a doctor - again a guest invited in to answer question - said go out and get a flu jab asap because it will give your immune system a kick.

So much conflicting and confusing advice...

Prof Paul Hunter on LBC just said that the flu and pneumonia vaccines will give you no protection whatsoever from COVID-19.


Yet on 5Live on Thursday night, a doctor - again a guest invited in to answer question - said go out and get a flu jab asap because it will give your immune system a kick.

said go out and get a flu jab asap because it will give your immune system a kick.

You can't trust these people - how many answers do they give that are tailored to meet their own vested interests?

He might be a medical ''advisor'' to a company that produces the vaccine. Then again do doctors get paid for the numbers of people who take up the vaccine?

Doctors are as greedy as the rest of us.

I know: it’s a big claim. “One of the most insane ideas in modern history?” He can’t be serious! You, my friend, can be the judge.
You’ve heard, by now, of America’s bizarre, dismal lack of a response to Coronavirus. But Britain’s lack of a response is even crazier. Yes, really. America’s not responding because it’s a broken society with no public goods: it can’t. But Britain’s not responding because it doesn’t think it should — a conclusion reached by one of the most surreal cocktails of arrogance, pseudoscience, and crackpot punditry the modern world has ever seen.
Imagine that the anti-vaxxers took over a whole society. Britain’s currently in the midst of something exactly, precisely like that, except for a global pandemic — Coronavirus.
Let me give you the facts. According to Robert Peston, one of the UK’s top journalists, Britain’s leaders’ brilliant idea is…”to allow the virus to pass through the entire population so that we acquire herd immunity.” Other journalists have noted the same thing.
Wait, what? “Herd immunity”? What’s that, you ask? Here’s your answer, dear reader.
“Herd immunity describes how a population is protected from a disease after vaccination by stopping the germ responsible for the infection being transmitted between people.” In other words, we vaccinate about half the population or more, and then everyone else is protected, too (especially like immunocompromised people, for whom vaccines can be genuinely dangerous.)
Did you see a small problem between the British government’s definition of herd immunity…and what it actually is? Herd immunity is — the real thing — what happens after enough members of a population have been vaccinated. It’s not…just letting an entire nation be rampaged by a lethal virus for which there’s no vaccine. How much death and mayhem would that cause, by the way? “57 million people infected and 1.1 million people dying.”
Good, sweet Lord. Let me summarize. Britain’s leaders appear to want the whole nation to get Coronavirus because they don’t understand basic science, logic, or history — they think that everyone getting sick magically confers resistance on a nation. That is not how disease works. Herd immunity is what happens after large-scale vaccination, as a viral infection subsides. It’s not…just letting a virus run rampant, with the bizarre, vague hope that naturally acquired immunity will somehow emerge and spread amongst the population. That is just a recipe for absolute catastrophe.
Words are beginning to fail me at this point, not just because I don’t think I’ve ever seen a government in a rich country base policy on such rank ignorance — but because I’ve never imagined, really, that a British government would let crackpot anti-vaxxer pseudoscience dictate it’s entire response to…an actual global pandemic. What on earth?
The human species never developed “herd immunity” to polio or smallpox or any virus, really — ever, despite millennia of death and illness and misery. Why not? Because herd immunity depends on vaccines. We vaccinate a large number of people, and then all of us are protected, because transmission rates are reduced (among other things.) Let me make the point again. The human race never developed herd immunity to a lethal virus, precisely because herd immunity is not something that emerges naturally. What happens, instead, when we let a virus simply take its course? What happened with smallpox and polio: they just rampage through populations, forever.
The British government’s Coronavirus strategy, in other words, is founded on the most surreal and astonishing kind of pseudoscience. Why is it pseudoscience? Let me try to dig into the point above. Why is that, for the majority of humanity history, nobody, and I mean nobody as a population, developed the slightest form of “herd immunity” to, say, polio or smallpox — both viral killers of the most terrible kind? Why is it that they went right on killing people, no matter how many people they had killed before…since no one, really was developing more immunity to them? Because
Herd immunity isn’t the spread of natural immunity amongst a population. Let’s think about that point. Herd immunity isn’t me developing “natural immunity”, and then passing it on to you. Why not? Because such a thing is impossible. How would I pass on my “natural immunity” to you? With magic? Spells? Incantations? You can’t use my antibodies. That’s what a vaccine is — a refined form of just such a thing. We don’t have one for Coronavirus yet precisely because the work of formulating such a vaccine in the lab hasn’t concluded yet.
Are you seeing my point? The idea that “herd immunity” will protect a nation from Coronavirus is three things. One, sheer, unbelievable levels of folly: a mistaken idea of what herd immunity is to begin with, the lack of knowledge that it depends on vaccination. Three, pseudoscience, which doesn’t seem to understand the basic idea that viruses do not magically subside if we just let them have their way, as we develop “natural immunity.” We don’t, which is why smallpox and polio kept on killing and disfiguring people for millennia. Three, magical thinking, based on the superstition that my natural immunity will magically protect you, which it won’t because I can’t transmit it to you, but I can transmit a virus.
I’m genuinely staggered, my friends. And you should be too. This idea that the correct response to Coronavirus is “herd immunity” — meaning letting a deadly virus rampage through an entire nation, causing mayhem on an unbelievable scale, is actually, really one of the most astonishingly foolish things I have ever seen. Ever. I cannot believe a government of any kind — let alone a British one — can be so stupid as to believe in such quackery.
Let me restate some of the above, in case it’s not clear.
Entire populations do not develop “herd” or “natural” immunity all by themselves to viruses — ever. If they did, polio and smallpox and a long, long list of other viruses, like AIDS, would not have killed people for literally most of human history. They would have burned themselves out, and then receded. They didn’t. They just kept on killing, until we developed vaccines. That simple history isn’t just disproof of the idea of the emergence of “natural immunity” as epidemics rage — it’s something literally every schoolchild should know
People who are naturally immune to viruses do not magically pass it on to everyone else. Immunity isn’t like viruses, but in reverse. It took human beings millennia to refine the strange and subtle gift of natural immunity into vaccines. But that, too, is the living disproof that the naturally immune — and yes, there are some, to every virus — somehow pass their gift on. If they did, why would we have ever needed vaccines? And if they did, what would the mechanism have been? Magic? Fairy dust? We need vaccines precisely to give us the antibodies the naturally immune have. We don’t magically gain them just because there are people who are naturally immune around. That is not what “herd immunity” is.
Actively wanting an entire nation come down with a virus is actually insane. because you believe that it will select some who are naturally immune, and they’ll pass that immunity on to everyone is pseudoscience, quackery, magical thinking — and something worse. It’s monstrous. It’s not just bad science. It’s not even just illogic of the kind a grade-schooler should be able to disprove with a first-grade history textbook. It’s morally negligent. There is no benefit whatsoever to letting a virus rampage through a nation — only a huge, huge price that will be paid, in needless suffering and disease. No kind of natural immunity will emerge because of it. If that had been the case, then presumably the nations hardest hit by, say, polio, would have been immune — but that was never true once in history. Isn’t the sheer scale of this mistake — how colossal it is — obvious when I put it this way? Have you ever heard a policy so flatly absurd? I haven’t.
Let me distill, then, what this repugnant, insane, crackpot idea — “Let’s let the whole nation get infected! Yay! We’ll develop ‘immunity’!!!!!” — really is. It’s a kind of Social Darwinism. But an especially weird one: a magical one. The strong should survive, and the weak perish. In that way, we’re all better off. The fitness of the herd has been increased. So much, so Darwinist.
That much alone would be pretty repellent. But the really surreal thing in this case is that not even that much is true. None of that will happen. The herd won’t be better off just because a pandemic has raged through it. Sure, the weak will have perished, and the strong survived. But that won’t really confer any kind of long-term benefits, like a population somehow magically “resistant” to Coronavirus. It will just make Britain a place where the virus will recur — like Polio did in, say, Pakistan, or Smallpox, in Africa.
A cynic might say something like: that kind of magical Darwinism is useful to a die-hard “conservative.” They want a society based on cruelty, indifference, and violence. A pandemic is the perfect distillation of their core beliefs, really. A subtle, invisible agent, that kills the frail, and leaves the strong standing atop the rest. What could be better than that?
The cynic might even say something like: “Ah, I’m sure the government knows all the above. They’re just using Coronavirus as a pretext for something like social scale mass culling, which is what they’ve always wanted.”
I didn’t used to be such a person — a cynic, conspiratorially minded, suspicious. But I have to confess: watching the British government actually want their nation to come down with Coronavirus is doing a pretty good job of making me one. How stupid do you have to be to want your entire nation to fall ill with a deadly virus? I can’t believe anyone’s that dumb, really. I can only believe that they know exactly what they are doing, and why..


There's only one rule  NEVER TRUST THE TORIES

pipe down giggi you,re pig ignorant.

https://twitter.com/c_love888/status/1238807372279304192/photo/1

https://twitter.com/c_love888/status/1238807372279304192/photo/1

its the pace of this thing too, not like a month or two won't matter, it will increase rapidly in the 3 weeks.

maybe if you have the flu, and the coronavirus it is more likely you will die than if you have only the virus

its not dying that worries me, its burying

in 2020 death will come running with amazing speed.

London, will it hit London? I despise that place

what honest person could disagree?

said on an earlier thread maths ,scoence experiementing its got dom cummings and eugenic brigades tobynyoung etc fingerprints all over it

tripe ^

10 more deaths 100% increase in uk today,just half a million to go for doris plan to be on track

x2x2x2x2

more than doubles weekly

staying away from work is one thing staying out of the pub is another

he,s some free advice
stand close to Jordan pickford he,s caught foooook all since august

HOW LONG HAS WHITTY BEEN IN THE JOB

Has anyone dug out one of Nostradamus's quatrains that predicted this yet, must be one that loosely predicted this

Scientists - "While we fully support an evidence-based approach to policy that draws on behavioural science, we are not convinced that enough is known about 'behavioural fatigue' or to what extent these insights apply to the current exceptional circumstances," the letter said.
"In fact, it seems likely that even those essential behaviour changes that are presently required (e.g., handwashing) will receive far greater uptake the more urgent the situation is perceived to be. Carrying on as normal for as long as possible undercuts that urgency," it added.

Clearly the scientists dont see the irony in trashing behavioural indiscipline while at the same time using a version of it in their own argument.

I dont know why either side is dodging around the subject of liberty. Isnt it possible for a government to advise the public on taking personal responsibility rather than treat everyone like a loaded gun that needs to be controlled and managed?

this is your nicely balanced friendly gigillo and what he really thinks deep down

thegiggilo 13 Mar 20 16:39 
Climate change denier and corona virus denier,homophobe rightwing nutjob gets virus,if only this kept happening to the right people..

but then he is a new left progressive hater - a hater of anything opposed to his views

I'd have thought the threat of impending death would be enough to keep people's minds focused.

"Italians sing from the balconies in defiance to Corona Virus (AKA Karachi)"

Just more idiocy from the media

Its nothing trust me

Oh and there was the reporter walking right through the middle of the high rises as they sang

I mean come on wakey wakey ffs

So hancock is now saying

Herd immunity, in on Thursday, is now out. And apparently the government’s plans come with “maximum transparency”.

Gigg

This is another distraction propaganda tool

Brexit lasted 3 years and they need a new story to push

What happened to ISIS??

Kings college had 18 admissions yesterday,systems failing already ''we are drowning'' ffs reportedly the government knows we are in desperate trouble looking at the graph of findings already we will be in desperate trouble with ICU beds..They predicted 10,000 so should be shutting everything down,but looking at the time that has gone ad more delays we could be looking at 16,000 increases of 33% per day..

thanks for being concerned about my local hospital MO...your mate Boris is bangin a bird who lives half a mile away in Camberwell grove

Dom and the eugenics crowd solving the social care crisis