The EU are wobbling.

Hungary FAV - They have already built a WALL around the whole country.

Greece should have been kicked out - instead of bailed out - when their financial crisis came to the surface ...
- following false accounting to attain membership, in the first place.


Of course - If they were to go - then the power-hungry EU mandarins would willingly replace them with other 'dead-duck' countries - like Albania ... although, you would expect,  the likes of Macron and the Krauts would have something to say about that.

Poland will not 'leave' until they are self-sufficient, and a net contributor to The EU - they are absolutely coining-it-in, if I may borrow the phrase; Italy possibly, the others very unlikely given the "free money" they are receiving from The EU.

My money (a long shot) is France post Macron who'd be gone tomorrow just as quickly as he arrived.

Maybe they might be replaced by not so dead ducks as in Scotland and NI, i mean who would want to be under the control of far right English nationalists when you can have the backing of someone who actually looks after smaller nations(Ireland-brexit)?

If France leaves it’s game over for the EU.

If anyone else goes it will be a country not in the Eurozone, anyone that is will find it much more difficult. My friends in Greece were told that any savings in the bank would be halved overnight. That could have been an 'operation fear' job, but they dare not risk it.

What are the main sources of income for Greece? Tourism and agricultural products eg fruits and the likes. If there's a climate change eg more cloudy/colder weather instead of sunshine they are cooked. A re-invention is compulsory for them, I think.

Mrs Merkel has already put in a request for a rebate owing to Germany. Anything to do with the one-time divorce payment from The UK? Mrs Merkel is ain't stupid to put in a call for it otherwise it would be fritter away to some pariah economic EU members.

Who will be the next to leave?
Apologies in advance for my possible ignorance but did someone leave?

There was no point kicking Greece out until they had asset stripped it to claw some back. They've sold the lot, including Piraeus.

Dec 17, 2019 -- 4:48PM, onlooker wrote:

Hungary FAV - They have already built a WALL around the whole country.Greece should have been kicked out - instead of bailed out - when their financial crisis came to the surface ... - following false accounting to attain membership, in the first place.Of course - If they were to go - then the power-hungry EU mandarins would willingly replace them with other 'dead-duck' countries - like Albania ... although, you would expect,  the likes of Macron and the Krauts would have something to say about that.

Why would Hungary leave with the benefits they have and also the ability to play the victim against the EU?

Permanent combatativeness with the EU will shore up Orban's popularity

What a load of sh1te.

EU support surged after Brexit referendum, most countries are over 80% favourable.  Mostly after watching the Brexit nonsense turn into a nightmare for UK and its now possible break-up.


Salvini in Italy, and now even Le Pen in France the leaders of the most high profile Eurosceptic parties have changed policy to reform from within, not leave.

More deluded wishful thinking rather than any basis in fact - there's a surprise

pedantic, and pointless, post - detraveller

Ask again on Feb 1st.

Dec 17, 2019 -- 5:51PM, Wallflower wrote:

What a load of sh1te.EU support surged after Brexit referendum, most countries are over 80% favourable.  Mostly after watching the Brexit nonsense turn into a nightmare for UK and its now possible break-up.Salvini in Italy, and now even Le Pen in France the leaders of the most high profile Eurosceptic parties have changed policy to reform from within, not leave. More deluded wishful thinking rather than any basis in fact - there's a surprise

Swedish Democrats have backed off a little too I think

The next "wobbling" we'll see, will be the UK caught between a sh1t deal, giving up NI and still following most EU rules, or asking for an extension to the transition.

We'll "wobble" or capitulate for the 3rd time, or is it 4th time, I've lost count.

onlooker 17 Dec 19 17:54 
pedantic, and pointless, post - detraveller

Ask again on Feb 1st.

------------------------------------------------------

Feb 1st - We'll be out - but following all EU rules, paying money and no voting rights.  Congratulations, impressive

So Feb 1st is the new date? I thought Boris was working on a Brexit at all costs by end of 2020?

In any case all the best.

None.


You're welcome.

Wallflower 17.54 bang on, unbelievable arrogance,GB makes the EU wobble, indeed.

The beauty is the replies

Except Saddo

Dec 17, 2019 -- 6:15PM, detraveller wrote:

In any case all the best.

No, that is the date we leave. The end of 2020 is for the trade deal.

Wiil the Polish still be getting the Millions in Child allowance when we Leave ??

casemoney 17 Dec 19 20:20 
Wiil the Polish still be getting the Millions in Child allowance when we Leave ??

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Nope - but since EU migrants pay 34% more in taxes than the receive in benefits I don't think you should be losing sleep over it.


Same applies to British migrants to the EU  - lose all their benefits (you do know we are the largest source of immigrants in the world?)

*  10th largest source of migrants in the world "

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-50828516
Poland

Clutching at straws there.

That party will be voted out before Poland leaves or asked to leave EU.

90% of Poles are in favour of being in EU.  FFS


Try again.

Whilst accepting the issues of immigration, security and trade are all extremely important considerations, my personal reason for voting LEAVE in the 2016 referendum was a deep resentment of EU bureaucrats and courts having any sort of supremacy over the British people and our laws.

It stuck in my craw.

And we do not get to vote on policies or EU Presidents.

>  The EU Council decides EU policy this is comprised of government ministers from each country - ELECTED ministers so national elected governments dictate policy.   Ratified by ELECTED members of the European Parliament.  Seems to make sense to me.


>  Those elected members elect the European President.  No different than here - YOU DO NOT ELECT Prime Minister by the way.  Anyway the European President is "head of state" figure.  So if you think that one through - we do not elect our head of state - its stays in the Saxe-Coburg and Gotha. family..   Unlike other European countries with a two-chamber set-up, we do not have elections for our second house (House of Lords) which is appointed for friends and connections.  .

We are no position whatsoever to talk to the EU about democracy !!!

What I'm getting at is I get to vote for an MP - in The EU I do not, why? Because The EU are so big my right to vote has been taken away from me; elected ministers from each country tend to gang-up/take it in turn to achieve their objectives eg those in the Baltic and their friends. And, I do not care about the House Of Lords (I'll abolish it tomorrow if given the right to vote them out).

If Mr Cameron or Mrs Merkel could not veto the nominated President ie Juncker in 2014 The EU cannot be a democratic entity to me.

More countries likely to join EU than leave.

Groucho Marx’s letter of resignation to the Friars’ Club: “I don’t want to belong to any club that would accept me as one of its members.”

The EU is right to be wobbling. They know the disturbance to life and business is going to be huge. Yes they should be worried more countries want to leave and then we shall all be the poorer to stand up to America, China and India.

it is hard to split an Economic and Business Union but we should try to keep the Economic Union. We need each other but the European Political Gravy Train must be stopped too

Charlie 18 Dec 19 16:40 
More countries likely to join EU than leave.
........................



Only two net contributors now I think, how many more economies can they afford to prop up?

If Russia join The EU then it's prudent The UK do so too; The EU would not even accept Turkey for fear of Turkey upsetting the applecart cronyism EU leadership despite the economy of Turkey is many multiples of the pariah EU members.

Of course more countries are likely to join EU than leave...if one considers the likes of Albania, North Macedonia, Montenegro or Serbia as economically relevant or suitable EU members; President Macro has vetoed the admission of Albania and North Macedonia recently which questioned the future of The EU - the 1st time that has happened - to the dismay of Tusk, Barnier and Juncker.

What are you talking about ?   European elections you get to vote for an MEP  (750 member parliament / 650 in UK - not much different)?   And as I said the EU is MORE democratic than UK's politcal set-up.

We also underestimated our influence - the two biggest EU agencies  Banking and Medicine were both London-based. They are gone now. In addition trade strategy and policy was hugely influenced by the UK - the EU single market - the world's biggest and most successful trading bloc was a UK idea to begin with.

We can veto all trade and defence treaties, plus others;  and have list of opt-outs as long as your arm.  The EU allows vetos on important matters and qualified majority voting on less important matters (otherwise nothing would be done) - EU President is one of those.  THE EU Council is what matters - the leaders of each country.

saddo 18 Dec 19 17:31 
Charlie 18 Dec 19 16:40
More countries likely to join EU than leave.
........................

Only two net contributors now I think, how many more economies can they afford to prop up?

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ten are net contributors, including UK.


I was in Ireland, net contributors - they don't have an issue with it, and correctly view it as an investment in their market area, and as newer countries get wealthier - their industries gain through future exports. Not a difficult concept.

Thanks wallflower, ten sounds much more manageable.

If The EU was an economical entity (like before) rather than a political expansionist entity we would not have Brexit - that's for sure. The present EU have morphed into a totally different beast of un-equals with non-elected inexperienced past-it politicians eg Juncker and Tusk as leaders; its present direction of travel is non-net contributor conducive. Of course Tusk (Poland) and Juncker (Luxembourg) represent EU members receiving mega hand-out or beneficiary of EU existence/expenses.

Mr Merkel has already put in a request for a mega rebate owed to Germany; soon it could be President Macron. Ireland are now an EU net contributor (they benefited from funding from The EU for ages)  but significantly less than The UK who were net contributor from the start. I hope Ireland remain a net EU contributor, but for how long though if their monies go to new members like Poland, Bulgaria, Estonia, Czech Rep, Lithuania, Slovenia and maybe Albania, North Macedonia and possibly Serbia in the future.

No entity with just a handful of contributors can fund an ever-enlarging organisation of non-contributors for long. For instance a division of a business cannot continually prop up other non-profit ones within that business.

Only two net contributors now I think, how many more economies can they afford to prop up?


Where did you get that information from saddo?

Did you just make it up, imagine it or do you know? Do you have a source for that information?

I think I am with Emily Thornberry. Many voters are just stupid!

Is that why Labour lost emphatically ie for overlooking/ignoring stupid voters? If so, my heart bleeds for them...maybe NOT.

How will the EU replace the UK's missing contributions? That is a good question but that is a not as important as the possible disruption to trade and services

I've faith in the government and the British people - the world is our oyster.

Is that why Labour lost emphatically ie for overlooking/ignoring stupid voters? If so, my heart bleeds for them...maybe NOT.

They will reap what they have sown but we should be more secure in Londonstan! Our service sectors are robust. We don't make Japanese cars. Our trains work justabout! The crawl to work can be a pain but at least we have work!

Labour did not lose because voters were stupid. Labour did not make a good enough case, they did not destroy Dorris when they should have with such an easy target and the Labour Leadership and some of the high profile front benchers were not up to the task and correctly I concede the electorate got that right.

The real villain imho is Jo Swineson. She had the chance to progress to a Comfirmatory Referendum but she lost the plot when her ego became swollen. She could have supported Corbyn as an interim Prime Minister to pile the pressure on Dorris as the worst Prime Minister in history instead she has given him a shot at redemption although I am pretty sure it will end in tears for him and the country.

Several insults from you lately whisperingdeath. I might think you are a wimpish piece of ****, but I wouldn't call you that on a public forum. Get some manners.

a thousand apologies saddo.

So did you just guess at the number of net contributors or can you provide a statistic that supports your claim?

Boris should use this weakness from the EU, deliver, in a month's time, the Brexit they actually voted for, a clean break Brexit, and make the EU come begging to the UK. His deal is just a betrayal.

Did you really vote for the UK to be a vassal state for an extended period? Did you really vote Brexit to give 40 billion to the EU that could be spent on British priorities instead? Did you really vote for a Brexit that makes Westminster lose a good deal of sovereignty over NI? Did you really vote for a Brexit with a political declaration that is tying the UK in all sorts of knots?

Is that really the Brexit you voted for?

*His current deal is just a betrayal

Get on the streets to demand a real Brexit, the Brexit you voted for, before Boris sells the country down the river.

erm we don't all want Brexit!

Labour lost because:-
1) leader was sh1t
2) economic policies were sh1t
3) position on Brexit was sh1t
4) too far left
5) complacency - lost touch with their voters/people
6) electorate have no faith or trust in them to deliver
7) nationalisation - a big turn-off
8) bribes - smacked of desperation
9) did not understand democracy (2016)

4) too far left
7) nationalisation - a big turn-off


These two are very interesting. Imho I don't think ti was too far left or that Nationalisation is a big turn off, far from it.

The pendulum swung decisively but I have a feeling it will swing the other way as much if not more next time.

We want a fairer society for our children the ultra rich and privileged will have their day of reckoning!

..... and about the money (EU contributions) its minor probably less tha 0.5% of GDP in most cases - which doesn't count the projects/monies then received, plus all the seemless trade generated which equals jobs which equals money in the economy that otherwise wouldn't be there.

Of course - our newspapers spout on about "vast sums of money given to the EU" as if it was a donation. Did they or did our highly intelligent electorate think to ask..

-  what funds do we receive back?
-  because each country doesn't have to have regulatory bodies do we save much?
-  what volume of extra trade / jobs are generated by this money?

.....of course not


UK contribution apparently is not a problem for EU27 it is genuinely insignificant divided by 27. They are more concerned about their businesses which do a lot of trade with UK and how long it will take for them to divert to EU27 where practical. The transition is needed for UL, but I guarantee you the EU will make better use of it than we did.

I saw when I was in Ireland they had reduced UK trade from 15-16%  to 11% in only 2 years!! Now they have got EU funding to link into EU Energy grid - direct link to France and by-passing UK.  They are only doing what they have to do - cutting us out. They don't want to, they were our allies in the EU, and very useful too, their huge Irish-American political network was used by the EU (and the UK).

We had better start planning accordingly and to the same levels instead of thinking deep down, we'll have a free trade agreement and everything will be more or less the same.  And like last extension, do sweet f*ck all. It will not be the same - unless we follow EU rules - and that can't happen politically.

The UK and Ireland have more similarities than differences as such reducing trade with The UK is easier achieved unlike the other EU members esp the former Russia bloc. The EU fund and expenditure will be affected and constrained by the exit of the UK; Mrs Merkel has already alluded to Germany not able to increase her already colossal contribution (post Brexit), neither are France nor Italy given the industrial and political unresst there.

President Macron vetoing the admission of Albania and North Macedonia into The EU to the dismay of Tusk and Juncker (Macron is Barnier's boss) is a precursor of tightening admission criteria, and economic pariahs no longer have automatic admission.

And the deals we can now strike on our own with other countries in the World? Will these make no difference?

Deals with who?  For example.

We can now strike. I would have thought USA and AUS to name a couple among the many. Once done, will these make a difference. Genuine question.

Will make some difference but in no way come close to making up the deficit with loss of trade / tariffs (costs) with EU.

Big issue for Australia / New Zealand is that they are together pursuing a Free Trade Deal with EU  - this is where their focus is and with EU 10 times bigger than UK, we are not a priority for them - they have said as much (politely). Also there will be conditions attached (like all trade deals vis-a-vis competitors, which we will become) - the trade terms will not obviously be a favourable than with EU.

The US being so much bigger will (rightly) demand very favourable terms (to them). In addition any trade deal will probably confirm the "loss" of NI to EU. No trade deal with US if there is a border in Ireland.

On top of all that - there are 60 main trade deals we operate under the EU (700-odd individual treaties). These will have to be re-negotiated - we can't expect the same leverage - and wont be given it.  This will take a lot of time and we don't have the expertise / numbers to do these.

So some difference, but not enough - and we are talking a lot of time to get in place.

Ta for the in depth reply. Yes, understand the time to get done, but loss of trade/tariffs with EU will be  negated with the deal we do with the EU??? I would think they would want a deal sorting this as quick as us?

Not to mention out of the world's biggest trade deal  ie.  EU-Japan partnership. This will cost is dearly, the Japanese will move quite a lot to the EU - seriously p1ssed off with the UK. It will be a long long time to replicate that and just wont be at same level.

China are brutal - and unless you are the EU or US - its their rules or no deal (or very one-sided). Look at the Switzerland-China deal. To them not much difference between Switzerland and UK, everything is relative. Besides not to keen on us either (over Hong Kong) and have reminded us to "know our place". So wouldn't be looking for big deal there any time soon.

India?  They are insisting on free movement !!!  Ooops

Mercosur ?   Possibilties there but some issues, Argentina may look for some concessions re: Falklands - some other troublesome issues too.


So - this idea of us sailing around the world striking deals right left and centre may be somewhat trickier than first thought.

"loss of trade/tariff (costs) with EU"

I thought we bought more than we sold to The EU thus why the deficit with loss of trade with this entity? China and elsewhere would love to replace The EU trade (you claimed we'd lose). What about the trade with South East Asia countries eg Malaysia and Singapore? Or Far East eg Japan and Korea - the tigers of the east? 

Trade is long term and on-going whereas the predicament in Hong Kong is merely short/middle term. As for India, free movement? In their dreams. What have they got we'd need? Social care personnel perhaps, and who'd benefit? And, foreign exchange.

Stop talking down UK Plc: The UK did well prior to The EU, and will do sop again post Brexit. Just bear in mind since 2004 to just recently GDP in The EU double to £19tr of which £1tr were from the new member states - the original was 15 members - or 13 new EU members only contributed £1tr since 2004.

"Stop talking down UK Plc: The UK did well prior to The EU,"

-----------------------------------------------------------------

We didn't - we were a mess known as the  "the sick man of Europe". We had to wait for old De Gaulle to die before they'd let us in - we desperately wanted to get in. De Gaulle always opposed because he believed we would be disruptive and would back out once we got what we wanted.  Smart man, De Gaulle.

There is a difference between "talking down" and facing facts. Given our size and given that the world now effectively trades in "trade blocs" because  might is right in a tough environment like trade talks. We have a problem.

Uk:  "Our market is 60 million"     Other trading bloc:  "Our market is 500 million".   Guess who sets the rules??

Hint - not us.  (unless its with the Faroe Islands, where we have successfully concluded some trade arrangements)

UK Plc is the 2nd largest economy in Europe, and 9th in the world even larger than France but behind Germany. I believe we accounted for just over 12% of total contribution to The EU the majority are net recipients.

What is so good about the present EU? Only £1tr of £19tr from the new member states since 2004. It's no longer an economic entity the reason UK Plc joined.

Asks why President Macron vetoed the admission of Albania and North Macedonia just recently against the wishes of Tusk and Juncker? Why Mrs Merkel asked for Germany's mega rebate from the next EU budget? Next could be France (President Macron).

The EU are no USA, China, Japan or Korea? It's a mish-mash of un-equals cobbled together by the leaders from the weaklings member states - the beneficiaries of EU funds. You're portraying UK PLc as if we are a basket case which we are not.

-  The EU is the biggest and most successful trading bloc in the world.

-  The idea of newer less wealthier countries receiving funding - is to develop them so over time the market expands - its called investment in the future


-  We are a basket case

1) You mean The EU is also the most protective trading bloc in the world.

2) Investing in other EU pariah members who one day will be our major trading competitors eg voting for EU policies. It's
   already happening in the Eurovision Song Contest eg former Russia bloc voting for their comrades

3) I think you are insulting UK Plc, and do not understand the economic definition of a basket case economy.

--  EU is not protectionist - tariffs are average, and in addition grants lots of free access for developing countries.

--  Eurovision Song Contest  !!!    FFS

--  We squandered North Sea Oil revenues  (ie Scotland's wealth) - just look at what Norway did.  Have most lob-sided geographical inequality in developed world (all London).  Have you seen our debt levels?? .  A completely disunited country politically England, Scotland, N. Ireland.  Completely split in terms of Leave/Remain.  Large swathes of northern half of England have the most depressing dismal towns imaginable. Completely over-crowded (not EU's fault - its our own).  Atrocious levels of public education, and it shows.  health service !!!! I could go on......... it is a basket case

1) Sorry, but i think you are deluded to say The EU is not protectionist, and tariffs are average - if only!

2) Yes, the former Russia bloc countries voted for their own. Do you really think they'd not do so again in the future on EU strategies?

3) This I'd agree somewhat; wasting money on permanently work-shysters; expensive social projects, etc. But, a comparison with Norway
   is inaccurate and inappropriate given (a) difference in population between countries and (2) cost of attraction and market price
   of oil.

I know on manufactured goods EU has 2nd lowest tariffs after Japan.  It is low on agricultural goods. Has more free trade agreements than any other bloc.

Its like a lot of Brexit related information.  "EU is protectionist" - check it out to see if true then you see it doesn't hold up to scrutiny.  If it was protectionist (outside of areas it needs to be) I'd say so - it is just a fact. But when compared to all other trade blocs US, China, Korea, Japan etc it is far from protectionist.

That's one of the areas where Brexit will get tricky (the version portrayed by the ERG). It's made under the premise that there's a whole world of friendly free trade radicals out there just waiting to unconditionally make deals with the UK once it has freed itself from the shackles of the EU.

...That just ain't the case...It's an ocean full of hungry sharks.

I understand we are never going to agree on this. However, I do know some electronic goods, kitchen utensils and clothing are significantly more expensive than the US and nearly every country in SEA and the Far East; The EU bureaucracy is an impediment to foreign companies wishing to sell there.

The EU is no longer an economy-centred entity.

Powerful posting Wallflower,i'd imagine you burst a few bubbles there.

Hold your horses. Give UK Plc a chance. Only time will tell who is more right. I firmly believe without the shackle of The EU and its dependants UK Plc will still out-performed those in The EU eg France and Italy over the next 5 years.

Have faith. UK Plc will be great once more post Brexit.

Trump tried to blow out BAE over Lockheed Martin regarding Japanese jets last week, he put pressure on you with Huawei(?), small fish in   a big fish pond need a trick up their sleeve,but on evidence on what i see it is a stacked deck.
Wishful thinking and realism two different things.

saddo18 Dec 19 18:23

Several insults from you lately whisperingdeath. I might think you are a wimpish piece of ****, but I wouldn't call you that on a public forum. Get some manners.

Would good manners include replying to the question where did you come to the conclusion that there are only two net contributors to the EU budget?


saddo18 Dec 19 17:31

Charlie 18 Dec 19 16:40
More countries likely to join EU than leave.
........................



Only two net contributors now I think, how many more economies can they afford to prop up?

Dec 19, 2019 -- 3:58PM, impossible123 wrote:

Hold your horses. Give UK Plc a chance. Only time will tell who is more right. I firmly believe without the shackle of The EU and its dependants UK Plc will still out-performed those in The EU eg France and Italy over the next 5 years.Have faith. UK Plc will be great once more post Brexit.

Exactly, glory awaits!

I think the word is gory!

I'm astounded a British resident can be so negative about UK Plc outside The EU. I hope there are not many of them as UK Plc need every one to pull-their-weight to outdo France or Italy post Brexit.

grow up man! 

Although we need more of the Bet365 lady who recieved £320 odd million in emoluments, paid all her UK taxes, gave 15% of her income to charity and employs thousands of people in Stoke I am told!

That is called paying your fair share! If only those in similar positions would do the same...pay their fair share there would be no need to increase taxes!

imp - Can I ask what you're doing personally to pull your weight post-brexit? Second job? Unpaid overtime?

Would love to know.

Denise Coates deserves every penny she gets. Thank-goodness the entity is privately owned otherwise people unrelated to the business would be rewarded too for contributing nothing. Her visionary, dedication, business acumen and knowledge of the market propelled her company to the forefront of that industry.

The William Hills/Ladbrokes/Corals/Paddys despite having a head start are unable to match the progress of her company and her qualities as Ceo.

^^
To be an upright law-abiding citizen like I've always been; no state-handouts but good health (vital).

Does no state handouts include disabled people? Full time carers who save the government a fortune yet get paid a pittance? Families where one spouse had died or is too ill to work? Etc.