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wolf3011, maybe some people are shrewder than you.
e.g. ME Keep depositing you lemon![]() ![]() KOD >>> the betting and forum legend |
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^ Thinks he's zodie ffs
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Behave, 5 acres is **** all
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BTW, if you think the markets are on point then you're sadly mistaken.
http://community.betfair.com/cricket/go/thread/view/94046/23434118/laydraw-or-back2fav-etc-continued?pg=25 We can clearly see, over a period of years, that the markets have not adjusted to the global dearth of test match quality batting - hence the draw lay profitability. This is pre-toss, mark my words: it gets better as the the game goes on. This is mens, womens is even better ![]() |
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Ladcrooks used to call me John222. Hills called me "Fat bloke" really banged their heads together to come up with that one
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Captain Wurzel
10 Jul 15 18:38 Australia 3.45 to chase 412 on a wicket with spin and variable bounce - this is madness. http://www.espncricinfo.com/series/11371/scorecard/743963/england-vs-australia-1st-investec-test-australia-tour-of-england-and-ireland-2015 http://community.betfair.com/cricket/go/thread/view/94046/30541951/the-ashes-1st-test-at-cardiff?pg=22 Prime example, 400+ chased down twice in 150 years or 2000+ tests, laying @ 5/2. You don't need a bot, or even a brain, to make money there. |
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Laying odds like that you would need several thousand bets to illustrate anything
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There we have it anyway , the holy grail has been found in the highly original "lay the draw " betting strategy.. you're a mastermind
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I clean birdshit out of cuckoo clocks
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The lay the draw thread mastermind thread is hilarious viewing for all betting connoisseurs .. apparently he has found 3 holy grails all at the same time. Laying the favourite team ( original ) , backing the dog and laying the draw. There we have it then , all you need to do in order to profit according to this vegetable is simply back the underdog in a cricket match for untold wealth... oh and lay the draw at long odds...and back the favourite ( all three holy grails )
http://community.betfair.com/cricket/go/thread/view/94046/23434118/laydraw-or-back2fav-etc-continued?pg=25#flvWelcomeHeader |
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Look man, you don't need a huge sample to exploit the market. You're so bitter
![]() If I gave you 20/1 on Liverpool to win the league you'd be like........small sample ![]() ![]() |
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Regarding gambling, unless you have software extremely advanced, I dont believe it can be done as mac says long term - with the key being long term. Any edge is eroded eventually .. the people making money are the site owners and a tiny number of experts in computer software that know nothing about sports simply using automated software to hoover up erroneous price markets.
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You're thinking about results, not your expectation.
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My expectations are based on mathematical probability - laying something at 10 over 400 bets claiming to have an edge is no sample at all. It isnt just lay the draw is it , your results ( if accurate ) on the thread shows an advantage backing the underdog. These patterns appear over afew hundred bets but expand the sample to several thousand and they revert back to baseline again
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I highly doubt the veracity of that claim, there is no huge sample in sports. How do you think people bet on horses who rune 5 times a year?
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If someone bets 5 times a year and wins, good for them but it doesnt mean the markets are out or have any kind of edge. You have out a thread up of around 460 bets with a trend towards backing or laying long odds .. it doesn't prove anything. If you expect 40 bets out of 400 to come in just a deviance of 10 either way equates to 100 points which makes it look like a winning or losing strategy. The odds are too long and sample size too small to prove anything.. if it was as simple as backing the underdog in every cricket match we would all be millionaires
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I'm a professional betfair forumite.
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You're so dense it's beggars belief. You get the volume from your own bets. Lets say each horse runs 5 times a year....there is more than 1 horse in the world....therefore the sample is the number of +EV bets, not the number of individual races.
If you genuinely believe that how do you ever bet on anything? |
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You think you have found an edge with the cunning plan of backing every underdog in a cricket match or to add subtlety to it - you lay the draw.. genius stuff. If you think that's an edge why are you wasting your time here, go and make your millions. What's next .. martingale staking plans on the casino wheel lol? That's the problem with people like you , you think you are somehow "beating the odds" but sooner or later reality will come crashing in and the
will turn into . Do you really think you can make money simply by laying favourites in cricket matches with no rhyme or reason and just sail off into the sunset? You may as well put a blindfold on a pick stuff out randomly at long odds, lay it and hope for the best |
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistical_association_football_predictions You can scroll down for how football odds are generated yet your cunning plan to beat this and use your skills in cricket is....drum roll "back every favourite" Like I said , genius stuff.. dont spend all your money at once Einstein
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correction ^^ back every underdog " much more sophisticated a plan
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i am a test pilot ...............in a broom factory!
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baphornet.... no irish beef its all british but some from N.I its mainly local to the store i.e a morrisons in yorkshire will sell yorkshire beef.
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I used to be a fisherman but I couldn't live on the net income.
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An enjoyable read, the essence of which, I feel, is perfectly encapsulated by this, one of The Smiths greatest...
As merry as the days were long I was right and you were wrong Back at the old grey school I would win and you would lose But you've got everything now You've got everything now And what a terrible mess I've made of my life Oh, what a mess I've made of my life No, I've never had a job Because I've never wanted one I've seen you smile But I've never really heard you laugh So who is rich and who is poor? I cannot say...oh You are your mother's only son And you're a desperate one Oh... But I don't want a lover I just want to be seen...oh...in the back of your car A friendship sadly lost? Well this is true...and yet, it's false Oh... But did I ever tell you, by the way? I never did like your face But you've got everything now You've got everything now And what a terrible mess I've made of my life Oh, what a mess I've made of my life No, I've never had a job Because I'm too shy I've seen you smile But I've never really heard you laugh So who is rich and who is poor ? I cannot say...oh Oh... You are your mother's only son And you're a desperate one Oh... But I don't want a lover I just want to be tied... oh...to the back of your car To the back of your car To the back of your car To the back of your car To the back of your car To the back of your car Oh... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OugPMQibAjo |
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Only fools and horses innit?
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There was a sweet spot between 1987 (when Nigel Lawson - God bless you, sir - abolished the on-course betting tax) and 2000 (when this site started), when it really was genuinely easier to make money as a pure, formbook punter than as a bookmaker.
As a punter you weren't taking on the combined brains of the whole world, as you do now on Betfair. You only had to be better than men who thought a 120% book meant that half an hour reading the Life in the carpark before racing was enough preparation to then go and stand up and take four-figure bets at their pitches. And there were rows and rows of them - dozens of them - competing against each other to attract your business. As if that weren't enough, the Ring was then opened up to enable greedy and innumerate newcomers to buy pitches. You could stand in front of just two or three boards on a wet Tuesday at Plumpton, and those boards would be betting to less than 100% between them. They didn't know that - they had no computers to tell them. And they'd still be taking bets of £500 to £90 each way with an odds-on favourite. Commission-free too! There were so many ways to get an edge as a punter. Just going to the course and watching the races through binoculars was often enough. It wasn't until the mid-1990s that you could guarantee there would be TV coverage even on the course, never mind in the shops or at home. The close-up comments in the Formbook were worthless. If you knew how to calculate speed figures, you'd be one of probably no more than a couple of dozen people in the whole country who could do it at the start of the 1990s. It was just so easy in retrospect, but with one proviso ... you had to be full-time. You had to give up work entirely and devote yourself to the travelling and the Formbook. And be prepared that after two or three years absent from employment, there would be no way back if you couldn't hack it. I went full-time in 1990, and made enough in the subsequent decade that I can still get by on much more limited returns now that Betfair has destroyed that wonderful world for ever. Would I do the same now - burn my bridges and walk out of that office for the last time? On the face of it, no. But then again, if I simply had to make more than I do these days in order to avoid employment, perhaps I would go that extra mile: make the effort to visit the Hills shop as well as the Ladbrokes one every morning (the only two places I can still get a bet on apart from on here); see whether I could up the stakes on laying odds-on shots at cricket and horses (but would I only get the bigger stakes on when they win?); get fast pics for in-running one way or another, rather than just betting off Racing UK pics. I think if you're younger and more motivated, you could still take the plunge, give up employment for good and make it worthwhile. But it's definitely not as straightforward as when I did that thing 28 years ago. |
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wolf3011, you lemon, I wish you would stop embarrassing yourself. It's quite unnecessary.
I was pointing out that the markets are not as efficient as you claimed, not saying I point and click on test match draw lays. |
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I'd still be doing OK if I had windows 7 and the old racing post site.
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stop pretending to have a job , you’re all layabouts
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