House Prices up 21% due to uncontrolled immigration started by Blair

you compared those with degrees and how they voted
and those with GCSE or lower qualifications and how they voted

that as I have said is dependent on the history of Britain, it is inevitable and meaningless unless you factor in that the vast majority of older people left school at 16 or even 14

Millions now told they can't afford to buy a house, so are forced to buy one for someone else by paying extortionate rents.

Surely they didn't ask everyone in the country who voted in the referendum?
Because no one asked me how I voted.

So where did the figures come from?

Housing is a huge problem in this country, particularly in the south.  Decades of under investment, higher divorce rates and an increase in population through life expectancy and immigration.

immigration pushes down wages, how does immigration lead to higher house prices?

Dr C. It's all based on sample sizes and mathematical confidence levels.

As a result of deliberate government policy. The Blair have 38 BTL homes worth an estimated £33m.

Up to a third of millennials 'face renting their entire life'

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43788537

The rest will be enslaved to mortgages until their 70s.

low interest rates, two wages, divorce, housing benefit etc many reasons
but not immigration, if it does how?

Because there is higher demand for housing lfc.

lfc1971
17 Apr 18 14:37
Joined: 06 Nov 11
| Topic/replies: 21,431 | Blogger: lfc1971's blog
immigration pushes down wages, how does immigration lead to higher house prices?

^

More people demanding housing. Willing to live in crowded conditions. This intern encourages greedy landlords to bid up the prices of housing and then cram people in.

Supply not keeping up with demand.

lfc1971
17 Apr 18 14:39
Joined: 06 Nov 11
| Topic/replies: 21,432 | Blogger: lfc1971's blog
low interest rates, two wages, divorce, housing benefit etc many reasons
but not immigration, if it does how?

^

Over half new builds in london purchased by foreigners.

if someone before immigration is earning £100 a week, and after immigration  people are earning £90 a week how does that increase house prices?

you see IT, over half of people in London are foreigners, especially young people
so I am surprised that figure is not higher

because they get rent paid....


21 % since bliar doesnt seem much of a rise, it must be more than that

there are billions of pounds spent in London , by you and me, paying for people to live in houses

^

The 21% rise is for immigraiton. The other rises are for reasons like emergency interest rates, BTL subsidies, Help to Buy schemes, lack of building, housing benefit, population growth due to old living longer, more divorce.

now that is the main reason house prices in London are so high, people don't have to pay
of course that is linked to immigration, but that's a different question

The reality is a 30 year old teacher in the 1970s and 80s before the Blair nonsense could buy a decent house and keep his wife and kids. No problem.

Now that same teacher would have to rent a room in an HMO. Only chance of having a family is if wife works all hours as well or get some serious benefits.

it is not immigration, it is the system which is the same for everyone
well in theory

when other people are paying for the house, not yourself it is surprising how expensive houses can become
That is the system, that has been going on increasingly for decades its ongoing and it takes time to see the full effects
doesn't happen overnigh but it is inevitable

you see that fairly young teacher has to compete with some other fairly young person..
who is not working

maybe they should move to somewhere they can afford

kids have moved from villages to towns to find property for decades

maybe the over pricing of city living will see villages allowed to develop


certainly where i live, its becoming normal to see developments around
the outsides of villages where its been frowned upon for years.

councils waking up!

of course if we get too many cheap houses there will be a dash to import more immigrants to keep
the bubble inflated !

dont relax planning rules too much !

Thatcher started it by selling the council stock that has ended up in BTLers hands. Blair finished it by opening the borders.



lfc1971
17 Apr 18 14:44
Joined: 06 Nov 11
| Topic/replies: 21,436 | Blogger: lfc1971's blog
you see IT, over half of people in London are foreigners, especially young people
so I am surprised that figure is not higher

^

There you go then.

London (inner and outer that is foreign born):

1995 1.6m (25%)
2000 2.0m (28%)
2005 2.3m (32%)
2010 2.7m (35%)
2015 3.2m (38%)

The number of Londoners grew by 438,000 in the 1990s
and then 825,000 in the 2000s. 135,000 people were
added between 2014 and 2015, taking London’s estimated
population to a new record of 8.67 million.

700,000 of the 825,000 increase in population was due to the increase in foreign born people in London during the 2000s.

yes IT, in 2015 38% of Londoners are foreign born
that means they need a house, 100% of them those already living in London do not
they have a house
that is why I am not surprised that 50% of new houses in London are bought by foreigners
its inevitable purely by the simple fact that they don't have a house and those already here do

Pre-Blair owner occupied in London was 58%. Now it is 39%.

At the same time private rented is up from 16% to 40%.

You see the new owners are not living in the properties lfc1971.

now how do those extra millions of people increase house prices, what wages are they on that the people already living in London are on?

Correction those figure are forecast to 2025. Currently 42% owner occupy and 36% private rent.

lfc1971
17 Apr 18 15:13
Joined: 06 Nov 11
| Topic/replies: 21,441 | Blogger: lfc1971's blog
now how do those extra millions of people increase house prices, what wages are they on that the people already living in London are on?

^

Basically the entire increase in London's population since Blair (1.6m people) is foreign born.

In Jan 1995 the average flat in London was £89k. today it is £600k.

if they buy the spare capacity they can charge what they want

keeps the bubble inflated, until wages catch up

In Jan 1995 the average detached house was £257k. Today it is £1.6m.

its true that young people may be prepared to share rental costs in London, but that means they are occupying one house, not more than one

a flat in london in 1995 for 89k

really?

nonsense if anyone believes that the average detached house in London is 1.6 million
it depends how many thousand of such houses there are, and how many tens of thousands of other types of property there are

it is about immigration, immigrants are not moving into detached houses in London
well we know some do, but they are not paying the mortgage

London prices here:

https://www.home.co.uk/guides/house_prices_report.htm?location=london&all=1

People do not realise what has happened to them. Up 550% to 600%.

^ complete nonsense to link any of those prices to immigration

my house is up 300% in that time, so 500-600 doesnt sound daft for london

perhaps that's immigration also donny, I doubt it

the reasons are elsewhere as we have said low interest rates etc
but mass immigration will lead to lower house prices imo its inevitable

More people (demand) will leader to lower prices of an undersupplied good?

How?

because just like everything else if I cant afford it I cant buy it, and neither can you or anyone else

you see the demand is not in the number of people, it is what those people can afford
don't confuse one with the other

If 5 workers are willing to live in one 3 bedroom house would they be able to pay more rent than a family where just one parent works?

A teachers salary in London has doubled since 1995 but property is 5 times the amount.

of course they could , but there are 5 of them taking up one property
that's a good thing if you want house prices to drop in time
it doesn't happen immediatedly, because not everyone wants to live that way, and builders like to bulid houses and have people buy them
now how are they going to do that if 5 workers or more are living in one house?

the builders are going to want to attract some of those 5 people into buying a house, and of course the rest of us also
now how will they attract 2 or 3 of those 5 into buying a house?
I don't know

I can assure you that builders don't like 5 or more people living in one house

people selling? they wont like it either, not if it is prevalent and commonplace
that would not help you to sell now would it?

Ok.

I will make easy for you.

Imagine you live on an island where there are 10 houses owned by a company.

There are ten families in those houses with one parent working.

Then suddenly 50 young men arrive on the island. They are all working.

Do you think the price of renting would increase?

if they are prepared to live 2 to a house then of course rent could be higher
However that will not have any effect on the price of a house, in fact it is likely to make house prices fall
unless they are prepared to buy a house together, that's not something that young men want to do
So how will house prices rise again?

Its more likely that the parents with a family would want to buy a house on the island, of course if their rent goes up and they cant afford the rent and then lose their job, or have to get housing relief to pay for the rent etc this makes buying a house almost impossible
now how will that increase house prices?

If rents go up then the value of the underlying property goes up.

how?

Rents rise due to rising costs, not rising house prices. Went a slump occurs rents do not go down.

and if house prices do go up on the island, how` are those young men going to buy the houses, individually?

Imagine two assets you could buy:

Asset 1 Costs £100 and pays you £1 a year for ever.
Asset 2 Costs £101 and pays you £50 a year for ever.

If you have £101 which asset would you buy?

of course 2 or 3 of them might want to buy a house together..thats not going to happen

how can the 50 men get a house, they can build their own

It does not matter who buys them. The fact is they will be worth more to the company that rents them because the rents will be higher. This means that company could sell those 10 houses to another BTL company for more money.

every house in Britain would have a higher rental possibility if you were to rent to 5 or 10 people
it wont help you to sell it for a penny more to someone else

asset 2 would not be available for long

time was , before cross matching on here, you could lay both outcomes of a two
outcome event for an instant profit, there is always somebody who will correctly value
something, and act upon it.

lfc1971
17 Apr 18 16:20
Joined: 06 Nov 11
| Topic/replies: 21,459 | Blogger: lfc1971's blog
every house in Britain would have a higher rental possibility if you were to rent to 5 or 10 people
it wont help you to sell it for a penny more to someone else

^

Are you serious?

You think if rents doubled house prices would not change?

Do you realise more and more properties are owned by private landlords who get a rent by charging rent. The more rent they can get the more money they can borrow to buy the property. Hence the more they can offer when buying.

well that's possible true IT, but they will still have to let the property, and if people are prepared and able to afford that ok
they will not be buying property, causing prices to fall

the rent they can charge is not dependent on how much they paid for the [property,
it is dependent on how much rent someone can pay..regardless of the price of the house

now try getting away from the market, you can not do that no matter how foolish you were in buying a house and thinking that you can expect someone to pay whatever you think you need to make a profit, after paying too much for the property in the first place

you will go bust

Of course.

The combination of low interest rates and millions of extra renters is propping up the market.

the millions of extra renters will as likely as not make property values fall,
low interest rates are delaying a major fall in house prices, but house prices are falling and will fall

If interest rates returned to normal and the borders are finally closed they will fall.

But they will do all they can to keep the bubble going.

they cannot continue to use silly tricks and printing money or any other way to try and cover up the underlying problems, people are becoming poorer, there are more poor people coming into Britain in their millions, the money is concentrated into fewer and fewer hands and this inevitably leads to house prices falling
house prices when everything is said and done is determined by the middle and working classes
not the rich, not in time

All the property used to be owned by the rich. The last 80 years could have be unusual rather than the previous couple of thousand.

It may continue to go up but I for one recently sold my rental due to Brexit and the possibility of Corbyn

donny osmond 17 Apr 18 15:18 Joined: 02 Mar 08 | Topic/replies: 75,155 | Blogger: donny osmond's blog
a flat in london in 1995 for 89k

really?


I can confirm this - we bought a 2 bed flat in Shepherds Bush in 1996 for £87k (and my mates at the time thought I was mad to pay that much! )

Zoopla currently values it at £600k but not sure how accurate that is (we no longer own it).

IMO all the things mentioned that the government can do to reduce prices would be limited. The one thing that will cause prices to crash (or at least reduce) is the removal of cheap funding (ie low interest rates). If inflation takes hold and rates rise quickly there could be some real pain.

I for one will be happy to see house prices reduced - A large portion of the younger generation have little chance of getting a foot on the ladder the way things are. The best we can hope for is an orderly rise in rates causing a slow retreat in prices but things don't generally happen that way.

Falling house prices doesn't make it easier to get onto the housing ladder. It just makes it harder.

If someone has £150k in their back pocket and the property they want is currently £300k a crash halving the value of property does not improve their situation?

cheers gin,



i see median price for a flat was £65k

nearly 3 k flats sold in 1995, only just over 2k this year

6 a day not many for a plaice the size of landen

That's an extreme case IT.

In reality it doesn't happen like that.

Donny - are you sure? that can't be right can it?

I'd also suggest that if they'd just watched property prices halve, they might be reluctant to part with their nest egg against a commodity that's tumbling in price.

Saw 40% drop in NI and in the USA in 2008/09.

i just took figures off the website

no idea how accurate they may be

Sales then came back in the USA and the sales carried on.

Home ownership rate in the USA hardly changed compared to a drop from 73% to 63% (and falling) in the UK. Of course in the UK the government propped things up more.

i see figures are by month, so that may well be no of flats sold in a month not a year....

seems better!

The main reason falling house prices stop buyers moving in is because mortgages become harder to obtain.
That's if you can get one at all, and if you can they'll certainly want a huge deposit to cover further falls.
House building also stops.

The result is a more acute shortage of housing stock when the market finally turns, and higher prices still once prices have recovered.
That's what's likely to happen in the UK, where oversupply is unlikely to be the reason for falls.

The trouble in the UK is in parts of the country saving enough for a deposit is impossible especially with the sky high rents being asked.

Of course many parts of the country don't suffer from these high prices, and getting on to the housing ladder isn't hard at all.

because btl landlords know the rental values too

if they cant control the market the market has a more natural feel


no idea why a bank wont lend to a buyer when buying is cheaper than renting..!




they know something the landlords do not?

Does dropping prices really stimulate purchases?


Say you are in the market for a house, looking round £200k. You start looking at potential buys, start taking notice of the market. Then an 09 style crash happens. Suddenly a house that was £225k 3 months ago is on for a "Reduced" £200k.

Do you think it's your lucky day and jump in or do you hang on thinking there's probably further it can fall or maybe wonder if now is the right time to be lumbering yourself with a huge debt after all?

Short term you would wait I guess.

It should have been left to the free market. All the tax breaks for BTL, open borders, emergency interest rates, help to buy etc made it worse.

Don't disagree with that. Just think it's a really difficult one to fix. Genie's out the bottle really. If you want to reduce prices to allow people on to the ladder then you're hurting a hell of a lot of people by doing so. Similarly with BTLers. There are plenty of rogues but the vast majority are decent people encouraged to invest in property for their pension and have nothing else put by for when they retire. Not sure what the answer is frankly.

Council estates PP plane and simple, would save all the money given in housing benefit to people. Would be self funding in the long run, while I'm a big Maggie fan this for me was her biggest mistake.

Would agree with that dan. Maggie's failure to replenish stocks was a mortal wound. Single biggest thing that made people change their view of a house being a home into an investment instead. Thing is that will help people find homes but what do you do to the people who's livelihood is wrapped up in their properties?

Could this be a solution?
Local councils to be responsible for new builds, including planning permission, and most important, land prices.
At the moment Farmer A can own land worth 5k an acre, but Farmer B can obtain planning and become a millionaire overnight.
Fix a max price for land, tender for building houses,  and sell for say 130-150k for 2 bed in SE.
Local people to be given priority.
House price to be fixed to inflation, and can only be sold under license from council.
No re rental allowed. Anyone caught renting will have house repossessed , money returned, less10k fine.

Ok I may have oversimplified it, but can see no negatives.

I was told by someone last week that the council haven take one in three houses on his new build site for letting or joint ownership. The guy is hoping they put em all together at the other (cheaper) end of the estate.

I think its nice to have the possibility of becoming a millionaire overnight

I don't want the council to be involved in anything like that, that just gives them more power, they make everything more expensive and more trouble for everyone else

look at the shambles and trouble it is just to get your bins emptied or taking rubbish to local council dump...no thanks!

no, let the farmer become a millionaire

If you have immigration you cant have council houses, that is not possible

There's nothing wrong with renting.
In fact until the right to buy and the stopping of councils being allowed to build and the inception of housing associations (another level of profit along the way), most people did!

What's ridiculous is the cost of renting.

Buy to let is a completely unnecessary business, and it started 40 years ago.

LOADS of MPs are buy to let landlords - Many of them voted against laws being brought in which would make landlords more accountable.
Not just Blair - reprehensible creature that he is.

This makes VERY interesting reading. It's from the most impartial source there is.

https://fullfact.org/economy/did-mps-vote-against-homes-having-be-made-fit-live-in/

This is a list of 72 YES SEVENTY TWO!!!!! MPs who are landlords who voted down the bill to make rented homes habitable, by law.
They are SO greedy they don't even thing that rented property has to be habitable. See if YOUR MP is in the list. Mine is.

https://www.indy100.com/article/72-mps-vote-human-habitation-living-standards-private-landlords-grenfell-tower-7790891