7 opinion polls - 5pm onwards tonight

This will be where the polls completely turn around no 3% leads i'm expecting between 6%-10% with the average being 8%

3% looked an outsider BUT it's the one politicians follow

one leaking early


James Kelly @JamesKelly
·
3m

YouGov's controversial model is still projecting a hung parliament on today's update : Con 308, Lab 261, SNP 47, LD 10, Green 1. #ge2017

holy batfcuk

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 43% (-2)
LAB: 37% (+2)
LDEM: 6% (-1)
UKIP: 5% (-)
GRN: 2% (-)

(via @OpiniumResearch / 30 - 31 May)

'The Conservatives are on track to fall 18 seats short of a majority in the general election, a new opinion poll model has suggested.

The latest YouGov prediction model shows the Tories winning 308 seats, Labour on 261 and other parties winning 80 seats in the 650-seat lower house of parliament.

It marks a shift of nine seats from the Conservatives to Labour since a previous YouGov prediction poll two days ago, which showed Theresa May's party on 317 and Labour on 253.'

oh it's the same one

What interests me is the pollsters seem to be making the same errors towards Corbyn as they did with Brexit and Trump

They are 'adjusting for likely turn out'

So some of these polls actually have Labour ahead but they then take out a big chunk of Labour voters on the basis they won't show up .They did the same with Brexit/Trump

It was a big blunder as 3 million people who had never voted for decades came out for Brexit and millions who could care less about Romney,Bush came out for Trump.

A lot of people who stay at home election after election do so because there is no real choice . Well now there is.

·
27m

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 47% (+1)
LAB: 35% (+1)
LDEM: 8% (-)
UKIP: 4% (-)
GRN: 1% (-)

(via @ComRes)

94

228

184


Britain Elects @britainelects
·
27m

Fieldwork: 31 May - 02 June.

cannot see 47% of people voting Tory

That poll tells you how far out the others are,thats not right either but there's a big difference between 3% and 12% both rubbish todaty polls have been 5%,7% and 12% not even close i'm sure the others later will be at least 6+ upwards as well..

Westminster UK-wide voting intention:

CON: 40% (-6)
LAB: 39% (+5)
LDEM: 8% (-)
UKIP: 5% (+2)

(Survation / 03 Jun)

ICM Poll. CON 45% LAB 34% LDEM 9% UKIP 5%..


pollsters don't hav a clue

YouGov Poll CON 42% LAB 38% LDEM 9% UKIP 4%...

Polls tonight with Tory leads of 1, 4, 6, 9, 11 and 12. Mental.

thegiggilo 03 Jun 17 15:11  



This will be where the polls completely turn around no 3% leads i'm expecting between 6%-10% with the average being 8%

Looks like i'm bang on...the gap begins

2 parties +/- 3 % can give a 12 point spread and result is magnified as its a v b

but as they are massaged anyway i think its much guesswork

weather forecast for thursday may be of more use !

Common sense i came out spot on with the average % lead,i expect that lead to probably be constant now between 7-8%..

Britain Elects @britainelects
·
22s

Well / Badly ratings:

T. May: 42 / 47
J. Corbyn: 42 / 44

(via @YouGov)

most of the postal votes have gone

now its a question of getting your vote out

opinion polls suggest its 50/50 with tories more likely to vote

who would have thought 5 weeks ago that corbyn will be pushing for coverage
whilst may gets camera shy !

No point in getting coverage if you don't win anything,in 12 months time unless a miracle happens he will be completely forgotten then Dan jarvis will step in and things may change.Looking at the last election polls which were miles out and they always underestimate the tory vote could still be a walk in the park,the 1/8 looks unbelievable for most seats still sitting there as well...

oh i think corbyn has left a mark win or lose

i expect tories will win more seats than labour, but the
debate has changed, i think that is good.

That 1/8 will be 1/16 by tomorrow night...

The mark of the beast.

opinion polls suggest its 50/50 with tories more likely to vote

No doubt Donny is Lumping on Lab at 8-1

terrorist incident fcuks all opinion polls

YouGov daily poll till election day

10pm tonight

Predicting the Nasties to lose 10 seats. Hope Agnes is one of them.

Tobermory I think you are right , for a change. Labour are convinced that they have a good chance of winning. It is not just hot air , they believe it. Va savoir.

no casemoney, i think tories are more likely to vote too !


thursday weather forcast not great, that would be another little shift to tories imo

this bad weather thing being against labour never really understood it,maybe in the old days when only rich people had private transport,but is it relevant today?