Wishing misfortune and poverty on his own country, UB revels in the prospect of watching people getting hurt.

His writing here is an insight to what goes on in the twisted mind of a communist.

Take note and remember.

Rubbish, we'll be up and running in no time once we've got a new PM in place.
Access to the European single market as well, with no political meddling in our own affairs.

All the world to trade with as we slowly leave the EU behind as it disintegrates.

We'll show Europe how it should be done like we always have in the past.

ub shame you cant see what a country we have,u will be proved wrong

How do you know that people on here wanted to vote for Armageddon and World War 3.....


To some maniacs out there, that might sound appealing.  A real vote winner.

Well said Dr C, the O.P comment is disgraceful and he should be ashamed of wishing anyone harm. Juvenile ?

a nasty bit of work like UB needs to look at himself wishing poverty upon people
does he realise it will be the worse of that suffer the most but as one of the better off people(like so many remainers) he doesn't give a toss

an odious individual wishing that on people

People are complaining that we don't have a Brexit strategy.

Who is this 'we' that should have put a strategy before the Electorate?

There is no 'we' with the power to effect any strategy. The Conservative government was elected by a majority last year, with a manifesto, an item of which wes a straightforward in / out referendum on our membership of Europe.

That same Conservative government are in power - they have now been given a mandate, however small the majority, to negotiate a bespoke deal for Brtain with the EU and with other countries. Cameron has, quite righly and honourably, resigned leaving the way open for a new leader who believes in our ability and now, our mandated right, to live outside the EU, to lead negotiations on that.

That is what was being voted for, certainly by me, regarding 'a plan'. Who the hell else could deliver an exit 'plan'?

The British Public have given our politicians - who work for us remember - the destination. It's up to them now how we get there in a way which is best for our country.

You are making yourself look an idiot ub.  I voted remain and think we've shot ourselves in the foot and the less well off will suffer most, but I sincerely hope I'm wrong.

Like Gisela Stewart becoming leader?

Nice touch!

Educated, classy and principled - it'll never work!

UB lost a chunk of change, betting on 'Remain' and is still seething at his loss.

But on the subject of his/her pathetic comment, Wishing hurt on others will come back to haunt you 10 fold, UB, you have been warned 

UB should be taken to the tower at dawn and halfed ,then halfed again and dipped in boiling tea

Nevermind the Brexit, UK will emerge with a good trade deal


The British never wanted to be part of a German-dominated European federal super state.

The exit from the EU will allow the U.K. to reclaim parts of national authority that its political elites ceded to unelected Brussels officials free of any meaningful democratic oversight.


Tomohiro Ohsumi | Bloomberg | Getty Images
The British never wanted to be part of a German-dominated European federal super state.

The exit from the EU will allow the U.K. to reclaim parts of national authority that its political elites ceded to unelected Brussels officials free of any meaningful democratic oversight.

The scare-mongering about the end of the U.K. and the unraveling EU is meaningless. My guess is that the U.K. will do better that the unwieldy "union" of 27 countries whose leaders have yet to figure out where they are going.

But let's take a look at the U.K. first.

The first good sign is that the leave leaders are behaving in the tradition of the British battle cry: "Keep Calm and Carry On."

They are watching the fury and the confusion in Berlin, Paris and Brussels. The leading voices in these capitals are screaming for an expeditious divorce as a swift and exemplary punishment (yes, to deter other would-be exit followers), because the Europe's oldest parliamentary democracy spoke for the rest of the continent and dared to denounce the EU's failing ways.


Tomohiro Ohsumi | Bloomberg | Getty Images
The British never wanted to be part of a German-dominated European federal super state.

The exit from the EU will allow the U.K. to reclaim parts of national authority that its political elites ceded to unelected Brussels officials free of any meaningful democratic oversight.

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inRead invented by Teads
The scare-mongering about the end of the U.K. and the unraveling EU is meaningless. My guess is that the U.K. will do better that the unwieldy "union" of 27 countries whose leaders have yet to figure out where they are going.

But let's take a look at the U.K. first.

The first good sign is that the leave leaders are behaving in the tradition of the British battle cry: "Keep Calm and Carry On."

They are watching the fury and the confusion in Berlin, Paris and Brussels. The leading voices in these capitals are screaming for an expeditious divorce as a swift and exemplary punishment (yes, to deter other would-be exit followers), because the Europe's oldest parliamentary democracy spoke for the rest of the continent and dared to denounce the EU's failing ways.


In case you wondered, that is how low the ideal of European brotherhood and union has fallen. These muddled up and agitated minds in Paris, Berlin and Brussels will just create more chaos and alienate more people who were looking at the EU as a haven of peace and prosperity.

The leave people, by contrast, are playing with an uncanny gemütlichkeit. They are saying that they are Europeans, and that they just want to build a close European relationship of a different kind.

Will that work? All we hear now is that it won't.

U.K.'s trade and military trump cards

Well, maybe there is some prescience in there, but please take a look at these numbers.

The U.K. is by far Germany's most profitable export market. Last year, Germany's trade surplus with the U.K. came in at 51 billion euros ($56 billion), accounting for 34 percent of the German surplus with the EU. That surplus was also 42 percent higher than the German trade surplus with France, Berlin's largest European trade partner.

With its 89.3 billion euro worth of exports to the U.K. last year, Britain is Germany's third-largest export market, after the U.S. and France.

Will Germany give this up by shutting the U.K. out of a free-trade agreement with the EU? Of course it won't.

And here is another interesting story. You probably heard the Germans boasting about their booming China trade. Here is how booming that is: Last year, German exports to the U.K. were 25 percent higher than its sales to China. The big difference being that Germans made a huge surplus with the U.K., but their China trade recorded a 20 billion euro deficit – a fourfold increase from the deficit in 2014.

No wonder that Chancellor Merkel keeps saying that there is no need to be "nasty" with the U.K., while reassuring her compatriots that she would negotiate the U.K.'s exit from the EU with a great attention to German interests.

So, put this one up for the U.K.: It has a huge leverage in its trade negotiations with the EU.

The U.K.'s military power is another ace. All Europeans know and publicly recognize, including the French, that Europe's defense makes no sense without the well-equipped and well-trained British military forces. As a reminder of that, the NATO's Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said last Friday that the "U.K. will remain a strong and committed NATO ally and will continue to play its leading role (emphasis added) in our alliance."


Tomohiro Ohsumi | Bloomberg | Getty Images
The British never wanted to be part of a German-dominated European federal super state.

The exit from the EU will allow the U.K. to reclaim parts of national authority that its political elites ceded to unelected Brussels officials free of any meaningful democratic oversight.

ADVERTISING

inRead invented by Teads
The scare-mongering about the end of the U.K. and the unraveling EU is meaningless. My guess is that the U.K. will do better that the unwieldy "union" of 27 countries whose leaders have yet to figure out where they are going.

But let's take a look at the U.K. first.

The first good sign is that the leave leaders are behaving in the tradition of the British battle cry: "Keep Calm and Carry On."

They are watching the fury and the confusion in Berlin, Paris and Brussels. The leading voices in these capitals are screaming for an expeditious divorce as a swift and exemplary punishment (yes, to deter other would-be exit followers), because the Europe's oldest parliamentary democracy spoke for the rest of the continent and dared to denounce the EU's failing ways.


In case you wondered, that is how low the ideal of European brotherhood and union has fallen. These muddled up and agitated minds in Paris, Berlin and Brussels will just create more chaos and alienate more people who were looking at the EU as a haven of peace and prosperity.

The leave people, by contrast, are playing with an uncanny gemütlichkeit. They are saying that they are Europeans, and that they just want to build a close European relationship of a different kind.

Will that work? All we hear now is that it won't.

U.K.'s trade and military trump cards

Well, maybe there is some prescience in there, but please take a look at these numbers.

The U.K. is by far Germany's most profitable export market. Last year, Germany's trade surplus with the U.K. came in at 51 billion euros ($56 billion), accounting for 34 percent of the German surplus with the EU. That surplus was also 42 percent higher than the German trade surplus with France, Berlin's largest European trade partner.

With its 89.3 billion euro worth of exports to the U.K. last year, Britain is Germany's third-largest export market, after the U.S. and France.

Will Germany give this up by shutting the U.K. out of a free-trade agreement with the EU? Of course it won't.

And here is another interesting story. You probably heard the Germans boasting about their booming China trade. Here is how booming that is: Last year, German exports to the U.K. were 25 percent higher than its sales to China. The big difference being that Germans made a huge surplus with the U.K., but their China trade recorded a 20 billion euro deficit – a fourfold increase from the deficit in 2014.

No wonder that Chancellor Merkel keeps saying that there is no need to be "nasty" with the U.K., while reassuring her compatriots that she would negotiate the U.K.'s exit from the EU with a great attention to German interests.

So, put this one up for the U.K.: It has a huge leverage in its trade negotiations with the EU.

The U.K.'s military power is another ace. All Europeans know and publicly recognize, including the French, that Europe's defense makes no sense without the well-equipped and well-trained British military forces. As a reminder of that, the NATO's Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said last Friday that the "U.K. will remain a strong and committed NATO ally and will continue to play its leading role (emphasis added) in our alliance."


Now, try to apply the radical threat brandished at the U.K. that "out is out" when the East Europeans are clamoring for military protection, and the Americans and the British remain the only credible military force in Western Europe.

And that's where Washington comes in. In a speech at Stanford University on June 24, 2016 President Barack Obama said that "the special relationship between the United States and the United Kingdom is enduring, and the United Kingdom's membership in NATO remains a vital cornerstone of U.S. foreign, security, and economic policy (emphasis added)."

He also said that "the United Kingdom and the European Union will remain indispensable partners of the United States even as they begin negotiating their ongoing relationship to ensure continued stability, security, and prosperity for Europe, Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and the world."

The EU's blind alley

The existing trade and defense ties explain why I think that the U.K. will have no trouble getting a deal it wants with the EU.

But the EU, and its future, is a much bigger worry. The union's leading tenors - Germany, France and Italy - have no idea what to do next, mostly because they are in a state of an intractable political disarray.

Here are the unpalatable choices they are facing.

First, a move toward further sovereignty transfers and a federal state - favored by some in the original six EU members - is out of the question because there is no popular support for that.

Second, the prevailing mood of the moment is the opposite: A loose confederation of nation states. That would whittle down the huge and democratically unaccountable Brussels bureaucracy, and it would repatriate a large amount of authority transferred to the EU Commission.

The only problem here is that such a loosening of ties that bind would be lethal to the monetary union whose credibility and survival require a federal state with a common fiscal policy.

But, sadly, that is a mission impossible for the present German, French and Italian governments.

The surviving German government is a political miracle of sorts. After last Friday's reconciliation attempt, the sister CDU and CSU coalition center-right parties are pretending that their ten-month old strife is over, but tensions and key policy differences remain as strong as ever. The Socialist SPD Party – the third coalition partner – is gearing up for general elections in September 2017 where they will be fighting against the CDU and the CSU. The confrontation is already reaching a fever pitch in the area of foreign policy, with disagreements on economic policy also ready to go public.

And then there is the French problem. The French press is reporting (without the official denial from the Elysée Palace) that Germany's Chancellor Merkel has put an end to the all-important French-German partnership, prompting the question of whether an isolated chancellor's influence is coming to naught.

The French seem to agree with that view. They are now building alternative partnerships with German and Italian Socialists. But that is of questionable value because France is in an acrimonious election campaign, punctuated by crippling strikes and months-long demonstrations. The country's Socialist president, polling at 15-17 percent, is the weakest and the most unpopular leader in the 58 years of the Fifth Republic. His center-right opposition also looks splintered and disorganized. Only the extreme-right anti-European Front National (FN, polling between 30 and 40 percent) seems well organized and emboldened by the British referendum, and by strong anti-EU forces gaining ground in Austria, Italy and the Netherlands.

Italy's erstwhile can-do Prime Minister Matteo Renzi is less so these days. An informal but determined coalition of center-right political forces just scored big in local elections, taking mayor's offices in Rome and Turin. The same group, coalescing around the Five Star Movement (M5S), seems ready to go again against the ruling Democratic Party (PD) in a vote on an outdated and destabilizing bi-cameral legislature next October. If he loses the vote – which now looks like a near-certainty – Mr. Renzi repeated last week that he would "resign and go home" to Florence.

That is the EU that the UK will be negotiating with about a free-trade in goods and services. And London will be doing that from a position of the EU's second-largest trading partner (after the U.S.), and the most powerful military and political force in Western Europe.

Investment thoughts

The U.K. now has the possibility of correcting mistakes committed over the last 43 years by allowing a creeping accession to the EU's centralized power structures. The UK's positioning in the "heart of Europe," as triumphantly claimed by the former Prime Minister Tony Blair, had nothing to do with London's original intent of joining a prosperous customs union and a unified market in an expanding European free-trading area.

The new British government can go back to its initial objective and negotiate with the EU a trading relationship it wants. Its trump cards are (a) a large economy, (b) strong trade and investment ties with the rest of Europe and (c) its position as one of the world's leading military and political powers.

Throughout that process, the U.K. is certain to have a full support of the United States.

Markets will gradually absorb all that and revert to fundamentals, after the bloodbath of last week's wrong trading bets.

The euro area has entered a period of worsening political disarray. Germany is living with an unstable government and rising Europhobic extreme right political forces. France is experiencing growing socio-political problems in the run-up to elections in May 2017. Spain is likely to remain in a state of protracted inter-regnum following this Sunday's elections. Italy is facing a distinct possibility of a falling government and a new round of chaos next October.

As long as its mandate lasts, the ECB will hold the fort and continue to nurse along the unfolding economic recovery.


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http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/27/nevermind-the-brexit-uk-will-emerge-with-a-good-trade-deal.html

rogerthebutler  27 Jun 16 13:15

Good post.
Which spells out what everybody who is commenting on this issue should already know.

ttt the north remembers

how many of the remain would have got on the ship with christopher columbus ?

carney's effort on the box the other day was hysterically funny - looked like he was chewing a wasp

referendum result, the pound has fallen. But a weaker currency is exactly what the Bank of England wants, says John Stepek. Here’s why.

There’s not a central banker in the world who wants a strong currency at the moment.

The US Federal Reserve has held off raising rates because it doesn’t want to see the dollar any stronger. The Chinese want the renminbi to devalue (and they’re quietly, gradually managing it).

The Bank of Japan is looking in despair at the strengthening yen. The European Central Bank is crossing its fingers and hoping that the euro won’t rally.

But one man’s absolutely laughing.

Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England…

Carney: oops, I did it again

The pound had a bit of a bounce yesterday, on the news that Boris Johnson had decided not to run for UK prime minister after all.

You could argue that it’s because this increases the chances of someone fairly neutral on Brexit, like Theresa May, becoming prime minister. That in turn increases the chances that Brexit will look a lot like remaining in the EU.

Alternatively, you could argue that it was just part of the ongoing process of markets getting a grip on reality again after the shock to the system seen last Friday.

Whatever the reason, sterling was on the rise. And then Mark Carney, central bank boss and custodian of the nation’s currency, kicked the legs out from under it.

Carney gave a speech yesterday afternoon. His basic point was as follows. The UK has made a leap in the dark. There will probably be a recession. In fact, Britain is already suffering from “economic post-traumatic stress disorder”.

I can’t fix this, he said – it’s up to politicians to do so. “There are limits to what the Bank of England can do. In particular, monetary policy cannot immediately or fully offset the economic implications of a large, negative shock.”

But, he added, he will try to make the monetary policy backdrop as forgiving as possible in the meantime. He said that he reckons there’ll be justification for lowering interest rates over the summer months.

That’s all it took. Sterling fell by more than 1% against the dollar, down to $1.32. Meanwhile, gilts fell into negative territory. It’ll now cost you a fraction of a fraction of a percent to lend money to the UK government over two years. (And on that point, nearly $12trn in global government bonds now offer negative yields – astounding).

A weaker currency is exactly what Mark Carney wants

Wow. The UK government can now charge you in order to look after your money. Brexit has supercharged the bond bubble and made Britain even more of a safe haven than it was deemed before.

That’s odd, isn’t it? Bear in mind that one of the epic scare stories from before the Brexit vote was the idea that the Bank of England would be forced to raise interest rates and thus borrowing costs, even in the face of a recession, in order to defend the pound and prevent capital flight.

But as it turns out, the Bank of England governor can’t talk the currency down fast enough.

Make no mistake, Carney would have been well aware of the impact of his decision. The pound went down because he wants it to go down – if he didn’t want it to fall, he’d have made a different speech.

A weaker currency translates into looser monetary policy. It draws trade and investment from other countries. As Ambrose Evans-Pritchard notes in The Daily Telegraph, it’s “a shock absorber”, just as it was “in 1931, 1992, and 2008, all bigger falls, and all benign”.

(It also appears to have triggered bargain hunting from anyone rich with a dollar-linked currency burning a hole in a back pocket. A Sotheby’s art auction this week raised more than expected, reports the Financial Times, with “international investors… swooping in” to exploit the “ridiculous opportunity” created by Brexit, according to Philip Hoffman of art investment adviser Fine Art Group. Fine wine merchants have also reported soaring sales to Asian buyers.)

As Evans-Pritchard continues: “Every major country is trying to push down its currency to break out of the [deflation] trap, and largely failing to do so.” Britain didn’t deliberately vote Brexit to drive down sterling – but we have “stolen a march of sorts, carrying out a beggar-thy-neighbour devaluation by accident”.

It’s ironic. It’s probably not what Mark Carney wanted. And I’m not sure his task will be that easy. I suspect that the pound’s preferred “natural” direction at the moment would actually be flat to higher. And other central banks are unlikely to tolerate Britain hanging on to the much-coveted currency wooden spoon for long.

But for now, I reckon Carney will make damn sure that he takes advantage of the stupendous excuse he now has to talk the pound down without fear of being taken to task by his peers in other countries.

Agent Carney of the Remain Regiment's 5th Column was last seen standing amongst the enemy's ranks, whilst waving a false flag and pi$$ing on the truth.