You Gov have Leave ahead

Surely they're just manipulating the betfair market

I have always said the Leave side would start to reel them in once the debates started. Remain have dropped all their supposed bombshells too early and now they have nobody who can salvage anything going into the debates, all the characters and best debaters are lined up on the Leave side.

The undecided (of which there are plenty) will, historically vote for the status quo.

I'd still be backing remain if I was betting on this market.

'The Man's too big - The Man's too strong'

Look how John Major - his political career now over - is prepared to wreck the Tory Party, just to further the cause of the Remain Campaign

remain will win it will be the same as the jock referendum,never underestimate how many gravey trainers,frightened rabbits and dim wits populate this island

Yea but in last years referendum, "the dim wits" were the dim witted mad socialist racists in the SNP camp, the "No" camp
have been proven to be 100% correct.
In the case this year, the sensible side is now the leave side, it's actually 100% turned around.
The funniest thing is the pathetic Scottish "freedom fighters" fighting so hard now ... to be broke with Merkel up them and unlubed ... and they thought Thatcher was bad ...:)

Jun 6, 2016 -- 9:51AM, rogerthebutler wrote:

Look how John Major - his political career now over - is prepared to wreck the Tory Party, just to further the cause of the Remain Campaign

The liars Gove and Johnson are the wreckers

Just Checking • June 6, 2016 11:12 AM BST

In the case this year, the sensible side is now the leave side

rofl - miserable chav racists and bitter pensioners aren't "sensible"

^ there we have in Dave1357 a typical remain voter, their boots are too big for them.

They often fly into a terrible rage when people say they want to vote leave...that`s wrong.

"miserable chav racists and bitter pensioners aren't "sensible" "
When you lose the argument completely and resort to that, ..
it's best to just call people nazis/fascists outright, it saves us bothering
with 2 further posts to completely show you up..

What I find so funny is that 40 years ago the LEFT were the most anti EU, now
that the "right" are anti-EU they are massively pro EU, out of pure opposite childishness!

Just Checking its hard to keep your dignity when dealing with rascals like dave.

yes and the remain side showed their aggression again on a debate this morning

Jun 6, 2016 -- 11:44AM, Just Checking wrote:

"miserable chav racists and bitter pensioners aren't "sensible" "When you lose the argument completely and resort to that, ..it's best to just call people nazis/fascists outright, it saves us bothering with 2 further posts to completely show you up..

Its you who started the insults by more or less agreeing with gooroo's characterisation of remain voters as "gravey trainers,frightened rabbits and dim wits".

The other side started it mummy!!!

It's a bizarre situation when the side with no plan for the future accuse the other side of losing the argument. Unfortunately leaving the most important political decision for a considerable time to the general public was always going to be a risk.

Like the jocks.....They will bottle it at the last moment.

rogerthebutler 06 Jun 16 09:49 Joined: 01 Mar 03 | Topic/replies: 11,812 | Blogger: rogerthebutler's blog

The undecided (of which there are plenty) will, historically vote for the status quo

Agreed.. this demographic will be the new 'shy tories' come polling day.

Leave is not going to happen get used to it

"Its you who started the insults by more or less agreeing with gooroo's characterisation of remain voters as "gravey trainers,frightened rabbits and dim wits".
I didn't actually. I was trying to say that this referendum is in many ways the opposite of Scotland's independence referendum. There is a school of thought amongst the losing side in the SNP types, that they lost because of a lack of courage. When the reality is that the SNP-ers are generally thick as two short planks, can't count, and they just can't accept they didn't have an economic case to stand on, and they didn't. Far from being "rich" as they still want to believe, the Scottish deficit is already such that it would be be worse than Greece if it was independent. Far from being "cheated" the people who voted against independence stopped Scotland getting into a world of hurt, just the independence supporters are too far too brainwashed to take reality on board.

This referendum is very different in that I don't think it'll make that much difference either way economically, it's not nearly so clear cut. The scaremongering is totally out of control though, it's off the scale. It's more about if you want a-holes like Merkel and Juncker running your life and filling the UK with half of north africa or Turkey.

As per the general election you need to capture the feeling close to the voting date what happens before matters not as much....i'm sure remain will still have some tricks up their sleeve.

people are too cowardly to change. they prefer to boil like frogs, one degree at a time.

Yougovs polls are a waste of time

Guy on bloomberg this morning said all the markets suggest a stay vote is fully expected by the financial sector and only companies that couldn't afford to take risks were hedging

talking his own book Zazu.

The general feeling is that Remain will win. However, the betting odds for Leave have been shortening significantly in the last week. The Betfair market is 1,46 v 3,25 now in a £20m market, so that is a reasonable indicator I would think. Only a few days ago Farage put £1k on Leave at 5/2 with Laddies, so Leave is shortening.

I reckon that if the Farage v Cameron match tonight at 9pm is a wipe out for Cameron, it could get much closer.

£20million on a betting exchange is  insignificant compared to the £billions involved on the stock exchange.

I don't understand why everywhere is getting so worked up about it. Will make little difference to the average worker imo

Britain Elects‏ @britainelects

Our latest #EUref rolling average puts Leave ahead by 0.5%:
Remain: 44.0%
Leave: 44.5%

Cameron must be having kittens

Shouldn't that be piglets?

I reckon that if the Farage v Cameron match tonight at 9pm is a wipe out for Cameron, it could get much closer.


It's not a head to head debate though.
They both get 30 mins with the audience.
Farage will not have the opportunity to corner Cameron.
And Farage will then on his own be portrayed as toxic as ever.

The psychologists peddling away behind the scenes for Cameron will have put together a better plan than last week, when the literary student lassy stole the show by turning on Cameron.

on oddschecker today Zen we have REMAIN now 4-11 across the board BREXIT 9-4 and drifting slightly , I assume there must be some polls coming out soon saying remain have recovered from last week

Well i have noticed over the last day or so because Farage is now more vocal that the Brexit movement is more tarnished with the racist tag.
There are more captions depicting Brexit as a racist bunch on social media. Again the psychologists will have something up their sleeve to turn the undecided away from Brexit.

No better psychological trick than creating the impression of a 50-50 chance or a slight lead for OUT.

Very true Die Linke

Wrap up that trick with following tricks on rhetoric and then you have the swing.

Odds shortening for leave 3.15 here

Brexit poll shows a 19% lead

DK excluded

if you leave the EU - they are going to shoot puppies and kittens.