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The psychology of gambling.
The psychology of gambling.
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Replies: 102
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im off to bobo land now,talk tomorrow lads.night all.
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You appear to have accepted your life Mc Moonbeam
Well that is something  Einstein what would it be like to have a brain like that, that is the supreme achievement of being a Human Being. Amazingly he could never remember where he lived...his mind was on other things. |
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Bet at massive odds. Its a maths thing. When you multiply a small number by a big number you get a big number.
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i treat gambling like a computer game. there's always one more level. That's why it's hard to walk away when you win.
I think it's best to pick two or three five to one shots and try to do a double/treble. Walk out and check it after the days racing is over. Hanging about bookies or betfair just drains the will. |
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Sorry to hear but glad your OK McMoon and thanks for the kind words Akabula.
I'm a profitable low stakes poker player, I make decent pocket money from the game (mid 4 figures last year). I blog at my own site www.freerollhq.co.uk where I'm trying to turn zero into 4 figures in 2016 (and failing miserably). I still think I'll do it and TBF I created the site as an affiliate so I can make more money. The game is harder than it's ever been but I still think there's profit to be made. 2/3rds of all poker players lose long term (Sharkscope stats) so I think the site is relevant to the majority of players or anyone thinking of getting into the game. I really think you need an edge and bankroll management to succeed. Without both you'll lose eventually. My edge in poker is making less mistakes than my opponents but without bankroll I'll get nowhere. In any one game I'm risking 5% or less of my net bankroll. That way I can cope with the swings that are inevitable. Without an edge then no amount of bankroll will help so both go hand in hand. I think the same applies to punting. I'm loving Robd270's http://community.betfair.com/football/go/thread/view/94070/30677959/playing-the-percentages He has an edge, just read his well thought out reasoning to understand. He's also working to a strict bankroll. He's maybe making pennies but with the majority of punters losing in the game, any profit is better than nothing. |
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You're kidding yourself about this edge philosophy with just punting Ovalman. Robs a nice guy but has no edge, firstly he's made less than 50 bets which is no evidence of anything, secondly his pot has grown by 8% which after commission would be even less and thirdly on one day alone he lost over 5% meaning another day like that will take him after commission into the red. That's no edge and if you believe it is I worry for you also if you believe a growth of 8% when one day just lost 5% over less than 50 bets is anything bar a reasonable run of chance.
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The only way to determine any edge is hundreds of bets on markets using the same technique over and over which can ultimately withstand a hit of over 22.5 % commission rising to 60%.. good luck with that
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How kind of you to remember me Mr 3011. Thanks for your good wishes, which are reciprocated. I hope you are prospering.
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Thanks Ovalman
What most people don't seem to grasp is that a true edge is extremely difficult to find & maintain , and when you do find it'll be relatively small so you have to bet big & place a huge number of bets to really Maximize your edge This is also what poker taught me , was happy to just grind away for years endlessly making 5% , but my actual stakes ended up being like $1 Million per year just to Net £30k + Very difficult to find in the Betting World as it's tough to find that kind of liquidity to play around with  |
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gambling is definately something you can't teach ,it's a skill with which you are probably born with . It is not about luck but a way of looking at something different to how other folk see it .
some folk are very good at music,some art, some languages ,some sport etc etc Autism is possibly the word i'm looking at |
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definitely *
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Albert Einstein walked to work for 35 years thinking about E=MCX2 and then one day on his way to work he says to himself "I fecking have it"and he did have it.
 Eeternaloptimist Eeternaloptimist 14 May 16 01:26 Yep. And look at that cnunt jumping in and out of the bath until he shouted uranus or something like that. _______________ |
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you have to look at the odds on here and say to yourself ,hmmm - OK what can i do with those odds . A little like a move on a chess board given the wya the board is laid out .
There is NO strict mathmatical formula you can just apply and win ,anyone thinking that is living in la la land |
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If the odds correspond with the actual chance of it occurring or as a good as, I fail to see what anyone can do with them
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what if the odds are wrong or you have information that would change the odds?
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play blackjack count cards,it really aint cheatin
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You need to study more (maths is not always the key) but You must seek VALUE .. and try treat every bet independently (why are you placing that bet ?)
...excellent advice from Mc. I often fail at treating each bet independently. Backing is buying. Doesn't matter if you're buying a bet or a classic car. What are the chances you will make a profit from your investment? If unsure, don't back that horse/team or buy that car. Trading is different and imo easier. Not looking for outcomes, just movements. Which price is likely to move which way and why? |
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You got to feel the same apathy on your good days as well as your bad days....
This in turn will neutralise any greed or the need for desperate chasing. |
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I'm not on about the EPL.
I follow Irish League Football, I know a bit about it although I'm no expert but I probably know a lot more than you on the subject. Bookies set their odds on Thursday, I know I've seen things that would change those odds. There's no insider information, these markets are not where bookies make their money. |
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Have a separate Betting Bank
Bet stakes to be a level % of this bank.( at least 2% or 1/50th) This should/will safely encompass losing runs. Focus and concentrate bets onto certain horses within certain races. Create qualifying indicators, that shoukd be met befor a bet us placed. Keep derailed records of all bets. Be disciplined , bet only if rules point to a bet. If not. Then no bet. Bet win only, not ew. Aim to not have a bet on any horse less than 3/1. |
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first rule of betting: don't bet on horses
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The time the horses are on is a problem, even if someone wasn't working just sitting in all afternoon especially during the summer would drive me mad.
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I think the best way to look at gambling is to think of it as a hobby, or buying clothes, or whatever.
My family and friends used to look upon my gambling on horses with distaste and I think thought of me as stupid for doing it. They used to say why waste your money? But I always replied, well you spend money on restaurants, clothes, gym, make up, holidays etc etc, are you wasting your money? I thought of betting on horses like as an intellectual exercise, and derived lots of pleasure from it, so it wasn't a waste of money. But I had no responsibilities so I could do what I liked with my money. I now play poker, but again I do not resent losing money, I enjoy it and hope to get better. |
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You obviously haven't lost enough to feel the sickening pain annie?
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No, Ron, I haven't.
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that's how it stays fun - good for you
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Sickening pain is good for you?
I have seen that time and again in boyfriends over the years, the ones that gambled and the ones that didn't but took me to dog tracks etc and then gambled stupidly. I stopped asking them to take me as I felt responsible for their losses, but I shouldn't have really as it was their fault, why bet on something you know nothing about? Probably trying to impress me |
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Really?
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It was a long time ago, crags
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if i could stick to dogs id be fine - can't stay of casino tho when i / you
have the obvious losing time - so taking a break & started playing poker again to burn time  - doing quite well tonight Just playing tournaments to keep it fun |
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... and you've suggested that they all lost? In my experience of people who go racing/dogs first time often do better than the regulars by picking out a favourite number or some such thing.
One guy at Taunton races some years ago had a fiver on a 20/1 shot because he though that the form figures of 'FF' meant first first... |
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Stay Off on line Casino Ron!
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Annie ,isn't there a law against women gambling ?
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Here's what you need to be a happy gambler on the horses, once you have acquired the correct knowledge of course.
You simply start with small stakes and build up you kitty through successful betting. Any increase in staking comes from your profits. If you are not successful your stakes never increase from the minimum. If you are good enough you'll get there. If you're not you'll never lose a fortune either. |
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Annie ,isn't there a law against women gambling
Glad there isn't, I have and still do enjoy it. I think all this gambling is the devils work business does all the sensible gamblers a disservice. |