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Say I average 1 win in every 10 games, over how many would I be likely to win 5 in a row?
What if I average 1 win in 5?
The Maui Jackpot on the Poker site is now €40,000 that requires 5 wins in a row. I'm playing them at a profit but it's hard to guestimate if it's possible to win 5 in a row. It's been over 6 months since it was last won but someone wins it occasionally.
What if I average 1 win in 5?
The Maui Jackpot on the Poker site is now €40,000 that requires 5 wins in a row. I'm playing them at a profit but it's hard to guestimate if it's possible to win 5 in a row. It's been over 6 months since it was last won but someone wins it occasionally.
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1 in 59049 I think as each game has 1/9 chance of a win so 1 in 9x9x9x9x9
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Wouldn't it be 10x10x10x10x10? so 1 in 100,000.
If you averaged 1 in 5 then it would be 1 in 3125. (I think) |
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Yes, you're right gin. 1 in 10 chance not 1 in 9.
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I think the question is a little deeper than it looks.
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I get your maths, I was working on a lottery scenario of 10x9x8x7x6 = 30,240 but know where I went wrong.
I've phrased the question wrong but you've gave the correct answer with the information you had. These are 10 man games and if it were random then your answer is true but I have an edge in these which would lessen those odds. I'd maybe play 30 a day which would mean me hitting once every 5 years but I think it's worth pursuing as my odds would be far less than that given enough volume. The jackpot hasn't been hit in over 8 months (it gets reset to 10k then 1k added per week). This time next week I'll be rich Rodney  |
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Is the question: how many games would you have to play to have an average chance of winning 5 in a row? If so, then I think 100,000 is the right answer.
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Sorry, missed your reply before posting.
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There are variance calculators:
http://pokerdope.com/tournament-variance-calculator/ But they don't give winning and losing streaks. I just want to work out if it's worth my time playing these as they have a 20% rake. I get rake back but I'd make more money playing 10% rake games unless I hit the jackpot. |
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Are you playing them on Betfair Ovalman ?
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What type of games are you talking about ovalman and how many runners?
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https://poker.betfair.com/promotion/jackpot_sng/
The Maui is now €41,000 for winning 5 x €5 x 10 Man SnGs in a row. They have 20% rake which is a killer but I'd like to know if their worth going for the Jackpot. I was wondering over what volume it would take to hit the Jackpot randomly or with a positive ROI. 100,000/1 for 5 in a trot randomly but Poker isn't all luck so it would be somewhat less although highly unlikely, I might have a blast. |
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I've hit the Dirty Dozen €2k jackpot twice so these streaks do happen. 1st time I won I thought I played really well and made no mistakes but the 2nd Time I won I was a lucky git winning every flip. The game after I had QQ lose to 77 so it shows that luck is an important point but over a big enough sample then luck becomes less and less. I've had a few "hit the post" jobs in the Dirty Dozen but 3 wins is the most I've ever managed in the Maui.
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My heads not thinking straight today to work out the exact odds but maybe I can offer some more practical input.
Used to play a lot of poker Ovalman and I mean a LOT. Nearly always cash although I was probably a better tournament player in sit n goes like the type you mention. My first question would be how many in a row is your best run. With each run you get say 2 or 3 in a row your personal investment or equity incrementally increases so its not just a stats questions its a pyscology of gambling proposition. I know what I "might" be tempted to do if I was going for the 5th win in a row! |