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People asking for 94-1 on any other party but Tories & Labour winning most seats at the next election! This should be a 1 million to one shot, if not more. Load up accordingly 
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Current State of the Parties
Nearly all MPs are members of political parties. The list below details the current composition of the House of Commons, based on the number of MPs in each party. If an MP is not a member of a political party, they are known as an 'Independent'.
Party Seats
Conservative 302
Labour 256
Liberal Democrat 56
Democratic Unionist 8
Scottish National 6
Independent 5
Sinn Fein 5
Plaid Cymru 3
Social Democratic & Labour Party 3
UK Independence Party 2
Alliance 1
Green 1
Respect 1
Speaker 1
Total number of seats 650
Current working Government Majority 73
Nearly all MPs are members of political parties. The list below details the current composition of the House of Commons, based on the number of MPs in each party. If an MP is not a member of a political party, they are known as an 'Independent'.
Party Seats
Conservative 302
Labour 256
Liberal Democrat 56
Democratic Unionist 8
Scottish National 6
Independent 5
Sinn Fein 5
Plaid Cymru 3
Social Democratic & Labour Party 3
UK Independence Party 2
Alliance 1
Green 1
Respect 1
Speaker 1
Total number of seats 650
Current working Government Majority 73
to be fair crisp 'most seats' is quite an interesting market building up to the big day. At xmas tories were 2.12 now 1.53!
No value in laying that IMO If UKIP poll support grew during the campaign there is the possibility of them taking the lead. If a poll came out with week to go showing them 5pts clear it could be a tipping point and Tory support could collapse overnight to nothing. It's not likely but it happened before in Canada. 95 seems a reasonable estimate of the chances.
UKIP support will not grow. They shot themselves in the foot with the television programme and now with stating they wont be able to enforce the levels of immigration. The media is out to get UKIP and Farage and they (UKIP and Farage) lack the experience not to keep fouling up at this critical time in the election.
No value in laying that IMO If UKIP poll support grew during the campaign there is the possibility of them taking the lead. If a poll came out with week to go showing them 5pts clear it could be a tipping point and Tory support could collapse overnight to nothing. It's not likely but it happened before in Canada. 95 seems a reasonable estimate of the chances.....what!!! They will be lucky to get 2 seats....tories will get 280
what!!! They will be lucky to get 2 seats....tories will get 280
Not sure people understand how this works......
It's a first past the post system .
To win any given seat you typically need 35% of the vote.
The biggest obstacle to people who like the sound of UKIP actually voting for them is the perception that they can't win seats , so 'it's a wasted vote'
This seems likely to be the case as they are on about 15% nationally , though of course certain to do much better in a small number of seats .
If they got their polling % into the 20s they'd not be much behind the Tories , and if they then had a good campaign ,and some sort of scandal - like a Tory paedo cover up - emerged ,they could easily overtake them . If the polls were showing UKIP ahead of the tories then the whole dynamic changes for right wing voters ;suddenly a vote for the conservatives is the wasted vote .
The Canadian Tories ,decade after decade in a first past the post system , won 150-200 seats at general elections .In 1989 they won 165 . In 1993 they won 2 . All that happened was a right wing populist party emerged and this coincided with some sort of scandal and an election.
UKIP will most likely win 3-5 seats but the way FPTP works they'd be more likely to win 200 seats than say 60-70 .
Not sure people understand how this works......
It's a first past the post system .
To win any given seat you typically need 35% of the vote.
The biggest obstacle to people who like the sound of UKIP actually voting for them is the perception that they can't win seats , so 'it's a wasted vote'
This seems likely to be the case as they are on about 15% nationally , though of course certain to do much better in a small number of seats .
If they got their polling % into the 20s they'd not be much behind the Tories , and if they then had a good campaign ,and some sort of scandal - like a Tory paedo cover up - emerged ,they could easily overtake them . If the polls were showing UKIP ahead of the tories then the whole dynamic changes for right wing voters ;suddenly a vote for the conservatives is the wasted vote .
The Canadian Tories ,decade after decade in a first past the post system , won 150-200 seats at general elections .In 1989 they won 165 . In 1993 they won 2 . All that happened was a right wing populist party emerged and this coincided with some sort of scandal and an election.
UKIP will most likely win 3-5 seats but the way FPTP works they'd be more likely to win 200 seats than say 60-70 .
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