Chit Chat
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09 Mar 15
13:11
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Date Joined:
20 Dec 10
Most websites concentrate on form trends, who ran in which race, who won which race etc.
Here's a look at the betting figures for the last 7 years.
How many races did the market leaders win
2008 Non-handicaps
2 favourites - 4 x 2nd favs and 1 x joint 2nd fav
2008 Handicaps - 2 x 2nd favourites, 1 joint 2nd favourite and 1 x 3rd favourite
2009 Non-handicaps
5 favourites - 3 x 2nd favourites and 2 x 3rd favourites
2009 Handicaps
1 favourite - 2 x 2nd favourites and 1 joint 2nd favourite
2010 Non-handicaps
2 favourites - 1 joint favourite and 3 x 3rd favourites
2010 Handicaps
1 favourite and a 3rd favourite
2011 Non-handicaps
6 favourites - 2 x 2nd favourites and 1 x 3rd favourite
2011 Handicaps
2 favourites - 2 x 2nd favourites and 1 x 3rd favourite
2012 Non-handicaps
6 favourites - 3 x 2nd favourites, 2 x joint 2nd favourites and 1 x 3rd favourite
2012 Handicaps
3 favourites and 1 x 3rd favourite
2013 Non-handicaps
8 favourites - 2 x 2nd favourites and 2 x joint 2nd favourites
2013 Handicaps
1 x favourite
2014 Non-handicaps
4 favourites - 1 x joint favourite and 1 x 3rd favourite
2014 Handicaps
1 favourite - 1 x 2nd favourite and 1 x 3rd favourite
Winners starting prices
up to 10-1....61.41%
11-1 to 25-1....29.89%
26-1 to 50-1....8.69%
Over 50-1....0.54%
more to come...
Here's a look at the betting figures for the last 7 years.
How many races did the market leaders win
2008 Non-handicaps
2 favourites - 4 x 2nd favs and 1 x joint 2nd fav
2008 Handicaps - 2 x 2nd favourites, 1 joint 2nd favourite and 1 x 3rd favourite
2009 Non-handicaps
5 favourites - 3 x 2nd favourites and 2 x 3rd favourites
2009 Handicaps
1 favourite - 2 x 2nd favourites and 1 joint 2nd favourite
2010 Non-handicaps
2 favourites - 1 joint favourite and 3 x 3rd favourites
2010 Handicaps
1 favourite and a 3rd favourite
2011 Non-handicaps
6 favourites - 2 x 2nd favourites and 1 x 3rd favourite
2011 Handicaps
2 favourites - 2 x 2nd favourites and 1 x 3rd favourite
2012 Non-handicaps
6 favourites - 3 x 2nd favourites, 2 x joint 2nd favourites and 1 x 3rd favourite
2012 Handicaps
3 favourites and 1 x 3rd favourite
2013 Non-handicaps
8 favourites - 2 x 2nd favourites and 2 x joint 2nd favourites
2013 Handicaps
1 x favourite
2014 Non-handicaps
4 favourites - 1 x joint favourite and 1 x 3rd favourite
2014 Handicaps
1 favourite - 1 x 2nd favourite and 1 x 3rd favourite
Winners starting prices
up to 10-1....61.41%
11-1 to 25-1....29.89%
26-1 to 50-1....8.69%
Over 50-1....0.54%
more to come...
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109 NON-handicap races
103 of the 109 non-handicap races had at least one of the first 4 in the betting in the first 3 home Much to the bookies delight, these are the 6 races that didn't 2009 - National Hunt Chase 2009 - Supreme Novices 2010 - Albert Bartlett Hurdle 2011 - Champion Bumper 2011 - Foxhunters 2014 - Gold Cup The favourite won 30.27% of them Joint favourites and 2nd favourites won 14.67% Joint 2nd favourites and 3rd favourites won 11.00% Joint 3rd favourites and 4th favourites won 12.84% [b]Overall, the first 4 in the betting won 68.8% of the 109 non-handicap races Of the first 3 home (327 horses) 56% were from the first 4 in the betting, and half as many again (28%) were from the 5th, 6th, or 7th in the betting Of the remainder (52) 28 came from 8th, 9th or 10th in the market, with the last 24 coming from outside the first 10 in the betting |
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There were 76 handicap races
The favourite won 11.84% of them Joint favourites and 2nd favourites won 7.89% Joint 2nd favourites and 3rd favourites won 10.52 % Joint 3rd favourites and 4th favourites won 3.94% Overall, the first 4 in the betting won 34% of the 76 non-handicap races Of the first 4 home (304 horses) 33% were from the first 4 in the betting, half as many again (16.44%) were from the 5th, 6th and 7th in the betting. Of the remainder, 14.47% (44 horses) came from 8th, 9th or 10th in the market, with 36.09% (109 horses) coming from outside the first 10 in the betting These were 11 handicap races where the first 4 in the betting failed to win, or get a 2nd, 3rd or 4th place. 2009 - Fulke Walwyn/Kim Muir 2009 - Pertemps 2010 - Coral Cup 2010 - County Hurdle 2010 - Johnny Henderson 2010 - Pertemps 2011 - Coral Cup 2012 - County Hurdle 2012 - Pertemps 2013 - Coral Cup 2013 - Fred Winter |
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THE FAIRER SEX
excluding the Mares Hurdle 89 mares ran at the previous 7 Festivals, and achieved 3 wins and 13 places 15 were under 10/1, they achieved 1 win (9-1) and 6 places 36 were over 10-1 and up to 25-1, they achieved 1 win (11-1) and 4 places 21 were over 25-1 and up to 66-1, and they achieved 1 win (40-1) and 2 places 17 of the 89 were 100-1 or larger, with 1 at 100-1 getting placed in the Foxhunters Chase The best race for mares has been the Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle, which had all 3 winners indicated above. nut no places The worst race for mares has been the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle which had 9 unplaced runners, 3 at 16-1, 1 at 25-1, 3 at 33-1, and 1 at 100-1 The non-handicap races had 27 of the 89 runners, and managed 7 places, but no wins The handicaps had the other 62 runners, they achieved 3 wins and 6 places In this weeks racecard order SUPREME NOVS HDLE 14-1 and 100-1 losers ARKLE CHASE 9-1 place, 25-1 loser ULTIMA BUSINESS CHASE 9-1 place, 33-1 place, 13- 2 and 12-1 losers CHAMPION HDL 16-1 loser NATIONAL HUNT CHS 8-1 place, 40-1 loser, 100-1 and 200-1 losers CHAPS RESTAURANT HCAP CHASE 20-1 loser, 40-1 loser. 50-1oser NEPTUNE HDLE 100-1 loser RSA CHASE - 7-2 and 150-1 losers CORAL CUP 25-1 place, 14-1 loser, 33-1 and 100-1 losers CROSS COUNTRY CHASE 8-1 and 50-1 losers FRED WINTER HCAP HDLE 9-1 winner, 11-1 winner, 40-1 winner, 8-1 loser, 8-1 loser, 16-1 loser, 16-1 loser, 28-1 loser, 50-1 loser, 100-1 and 100-1 loser CHAMPION BUMPER 50-1 and 100-1 losers PERTEMPS HDLE 25-1, 33-1, 50-1 and 50-1 losers RYANAIR CHASE - 28-1 place, 8-1 and 16-1 losers WORLD HDL 11-8 place, 20-1 place, 100-1 loser BROWN ADVISORY HCAP CHASE 13-2 place, 25-1 place, 18-1 loser, 20-1 loser and 25-1 loser FULKE WALWYN/KIM MUIR CHASE 14-1 and 100-1 losers TRIUMPH HURDLE 11-2 place, 12-1 loser, 20-1 loser, 50-1 loser, 125-1 and 200-1 losers COUNTY HDLE 12-1, 20-1, 33-1 and 100-1 losers ALBERT BARTLETT HURDLE 16-1 place, 12-1 loser, 14-1 loser, 33-1 and 50-1 losers FOXHUNTERS 100-1 place, 9-1 loser, 16-1 loser, 20-1 loser, 20-1 loser, 22-1 loser, 100-1 and 150-1 losers MARTIN PIPE HDLE 16-1, 16-1, 16-1, 25-1, 33-1, 33-1 ,33-1, 33-1 and 100-1 losers A.P. MCCOY HCAP CHASE 3-1 place and 11-1 loser |
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THE PLACEPOT
Because of the number of runners, and the size of the pool, you're better off with the Tote than a £1 each way accumulator in the shops The placepot dividend has been higher than the S.P. return for a £1 place accumulator on the 6 lowest priced placed horses on any day, on all 27 days of the last 7 years. The gross Placepot Pool on Friday of 2010 exceeded £1,000,000, as did all 4 days of 2014 (recession - what recession?)  The Friday Placepot of 2010 paid £42,000 The Friday Placepot of 2014 paid £44,000 Looking at the results below, you can see that you DON'T need LOTS of massive prices to get a good dividend. These were the prices of the most fancied placed horses in the 6 placepot races 2008 - PLACEPOT Tuesday - 8/1, 7/4, 9/2, 11/2, 4/1 and 15/8, and it paid £357 - a £1 place s.p. acca paid £64 Wednesday - no racing due to high winds in Jamaica Thursday - 7/1 , 4/1, 9/1, 5/2, 4/1 and 11/8, and it paid, £147 - - a £1 place s.p. acca paid £137 Friday - 10/3, 7/1, 7/1, Evens, 9/2 and 10/11, and it paid £191 - -a £1 place s.p. acca paid £72 2009 - PLACEPOT Tuesday - 12/1, 8/1, 5/1, 6/4, 7/4 and 2/1, and it paid £122 - - a £1 s.p. place acca paid £80 Wednesday - 11/1, 5/2, 9/4, 4/11, 9/1 and 5/2, and it paid £753 - - a £1 place s.p. acca paid £55 Thursday - 8/1, 9/1, 4/5, 10/3, 13/2 and 16/1, and it paid £537 - - a £1 place s.p. acca paid £281 Friday - 4/1, 17/2, 3/1, 7/4, 11/2 and 7/2, and it paid £656 - - a £1 place s.p. acca paid £70 2010 - PLACEPOT Tuesday - 4/5 , 4/1, 9/2, 7/1, 4/1 and 6/4, and it paid £98 - - a £1 place acca paid £38 Wednesday - 13/2 , 7/2, 11/4, 9/2, 14/1, and 4/1, and it paid £2,756 - - a £1 place acca paid £158 Thursday - 9/1, 16/1, 11/4, 5/6, 6/1 and 11/2, and it paid £1,180 - - a £1 place acca paid £196 Friday - 7/2, 20/1, 25/1, 4/1, 9/2 and 5/1, and it paid a massive £41,288 - - a £1 place acca paid £780 2011 - PLACEPOT Tuesday - 5/1, 7/2, 5/1, 11/4, 5/1 and 5/6, and it paid £60 - - a £1 s.p. place acca paid £43 Wednesday - 5/1, 2/1, 15/2, 3/1, 12/1 and 4/1, and it paid £933 - a £1 place s.p. acca paid £136 Thursday - 7/2, 9/1, 6/1, 10/11, 9/2 and 10/3, and it paid £219 - - a £1 place s.p. acca paid £86 Friday- 11/2 , 7/1, 15/8, 7/2, 25/1 and 9/2, and it paid £4,332 - a £1 place s.p. acca paid £147 2012 - PLACEPOT Tuesday - 7/1, 8/11, 6/1, 4/6, 5/1 and 4/7, and it paid £76 -- a £1 place s.p. acca paid £24 Wednesday - 5/1, 2/1, 9/2, 4/5, 6/1 and 3/1, and it paid £73 - a £1 place s.p. acca paid £37 Thursday - 3/1,14/1, 7/2, 5/6, 9/2 and 13/2, and it paid £309 - a £1 place s.p. acca paid £99 Friday - 5/1, 16/1, 6/5, 7/4, 3/1 and 7/1, and it paid £627 - - a £1 place s.p. acca paid £101 2013 - PLACEPOT Tuesday - Paid on races 1,2,3, 4 and 6 - 15/8, 8/15, 13/2, 13/8 and 8/11, and it paid £11 - - a £1 place s.p. acca paid £7 Wednesday - 9/4, 6/4, 7/1, 1/4 , 10/1 snd 16-1, and it paid £343 - - a £1 place s.p. acca paid £121 Thursday - 11/8, 6/1, 2/1, 17/2 , 8/1 and 11/2, and it paid £371 - - a £1 place s.p. acca paid £112 Friday - 4/1, 10/1, 11/8, 11/4, 2/1 and 8/1, and it paid £146 - - a £1 place s.p. acca paid £72 2014 - PLACEPOT Tuesday - 7/2, 11/4, 10/1, 3-1, 8/11 and 7/2, and it paid £153 - - a £1 place s.p. acca paid £43 Wednesday - 6/4, 13/2, 11/1, 11/4, 3/1 and 8/1, and it paid £193 - a £1 place s.p. acca paid £120 Thursday - 7/1, 9/2, 3/1, 11/8, 5/1 and 13/2, and it paid £496 - - a £1 place s.p. acca paid £81 Friday - 7/1, 7/1, 10/1, 14/1, 11/2, and 9/1, and it paid a monster £44,600 - - a £1 place s.p. acca paid £920 |
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Have you "borrowed" (stolen) this info from somewhere else?
It's very largely meaningless gibberish unless you plan to use the info to produce some selections. |
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Do you have any info on trifecta dividends at the festival?
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THE JACKPOT
should you indulge, is obviously difficult to win. Of the 27 days of racing over the last 7 years, the Jackpot was won just 8 times at Cheltenham it was carried over to Uttoxeter on Saturday for 6 years, and not won. Then it was won on every Sunday at different courses. 2009 was a sad year for one punter who had a 50p winning ticket, but got about one third of the odds he would have got in a shop with no limits on accas. In 2012 the shop return for an acca beat the Jackpot dividend by £400 2008 - JACKPOT Tuesday - not won Wednesday - no racing Thursday - Dividend £57,702 - - a £1 win s.p. acca paid £23,750 Friday - not won - carried over to Uttoxeter on Saturday, and not won The gross pool at Fontwell on Sunday was £412,224 The dividend was £5,003 - a £1 s.p. win acca paid £3,077 2009 - JACKPOT Tuesday - Dividend £35,500 for the only winning ticket, which was for 50p - a 50p win s.p. acca paid a staggering £108,985 Wednesday - Dividend £72,548 - - £1 win s.p acca paid £33,503 Thursday - not won Friday - not won Carried over to Uttoxeter on Saturday and not won The gross pool on Sunday at Southwell was £543,273 The dividend was £2,275 - - a £1 win s.p. acca paid £1,433 2010 - JACKPOT Tuesday - not won Wednesday - not won Thursday - not won Friday - not won Carried over to Uttoxeter on Saturday and not won The gross pool on Sunday at Newton Abbot was £1,578,888 The dividend was £48,739 - - a £1 win s.p. acca paid £12,474 2011 - JACKPOT Tuesday - Dividend £148,083 - a £1 win s.p. acca paid £23,821 Wednesday - not won Thursday - not won Friday - not won Carried over to Uttoxeter on Saturday and not won The gross pool on Sunday at Newton Abbot was £1,360,852 The dividend was £5,390 - a £1 win s.p. acca paid £3,145 2012 - JACKPOT Tuesday - Dividend £58,798 - - a £1 win s.p. acca paid £34,932 Wednesday - not won Thursday - Dividend £21,052 - - a £1 win s.p. acca paid £20,418 Friday - not won Carried over to Uttoxeter on Saturday and not won The gross pool on Sunday at Newton Abbot was £501,672 The dividend was £4,770 - - a £1 win s.p. acca paid £5,194 2013 - JACKPOT Tuesday - Dividend £2,339 - - a £1 win s.p. acca paid £1,209 Wednesday - not won Thursday - not won Friday - Dividend £36,005 - - a £1 win s.p. acca paid £24,980 2014 - JACKPOT Tuesday - not won Wednesday - not won Thursday - not won Friday - not won Carried over to Uttoxeter on Saturday and not won The gross pool on Sunday at Navan was £1,942,112 The dividend was £47,548 - - a £1 win s.p. acca paid £14,058 |
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Stow_judge 09 Mar 15 12:27
Have you "borrowed" (stolen) this info from somewhere else? It's very largely meaningless gibberish unless you plan to use the info to produce some selections. 1) All my own work 2) I don't post tips. 3) You're not forced to read it. |
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A ringing endorsement from the judge
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Here are Tuesdays races
THE SUPREME NOVICES HURDLE Just under half (10) of the 21 horses placed 1st, 2nd or 3rd were from the 1st three in the betting. Only 2 of these were clear favourites (2nd in 2013 and 3rd in 2010) The joint favourite won in 2014, the joint 2nd favourite won in 2013, and the 3rd favourite won in 2011 Only 2009 saw the first 3 home come from outside the first 4 in the market Only 2 horses that were outside the first 7 in the market got in the frame in 7 years, they were both 3rd, in 2008 & 2009 |
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THE ARKLE CHASE
The first 5 in the betting were the first 5 home in 2011 and 2012 In 2008, the first 4 in the betting were the first 4 home, the joint 5th favourite was 5th. 5 horses from the first 3 in the betting have won in the last 7 years. 5 horses from the first 3 in the betting have finished second in the last 7 years. Only 2 from the first 3 in the betting have finished third in the last 7 years....these were the favourite in 2008 and the joint favourite in 2014 Only 4 horses outside the first 5 in the market have occupied 4 of the 21 places in 7 years, the 2014 winner, the 2013 2nd, and the 2010 and 2013 3rds |
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ULTIMA BUSINESS SOLUTIONS 3M 110YDS HANDICAP CHASE
The favourite has only got in the first 3 home 4 times in 7 years, and has never been placed 4th The 2nd favourite has only got in the first 3 home once in 7 years, it finished 4th once. The 3rd favourite has only got in the first 3 home 3 times in 7 years, it finished 4th once None of the above have finished 5th in 7 years. Only 7 horses outside the first 8 in the betting got in the first 4 home |
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THE CHAMPION HURDLE
Not the race it used to be for winning favourites The favourite has won twice and come 3rd twice in the last 7 years. It hasn't finished 2nd Second place has gone to the 2nd or 3rd favourite 4 times in the last 7 years In the 5 years that the favourite never won, neither did the 2nd or 3rd favourite. Only 3 horses outside the first 6 in the market got placed, the 2009 and 2010 winners, and the 2008 3rd |
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THE MARES HURDLE
The favourite, Chomba Womba, was 3rd in 2008 and Quvega won for the next 6 years. The 2nd favourite got in the frame just 3 times in 7 years. The best place that any 3rd favourite achieved was 5th in 2008 The 4th favourite nabbed 2nd place in 2012 5 of the 7 horses placed 3rd came from outside the first 7 in the betting |
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THE NATIONAL HUNT CHASE
For what is usually an open affair over 4 miles, the enemy of the bookies, the favourite, ran up a hat trick of wins from 2011 to 2013 The 2nd favourite hasn't won, but has finished 2nd 3 times, but not in a year that the favourite won. The favourite or 2nd favourite hasn't finished 3rd in 7 years Only 4 horses from outside the first 7 in the betting have got in the frame in 7 runnings 2009 was the only year that the first 3 in the betting all finished out of the first 3 |
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CHAPS RESTAURANT NOVICES HCAP CHASE
The favourite won in 2012, but was unplaced in the other 6 years 2nd favourites didn't fare any better, getting 3rd in 2011, with no other places in 6 years Joint 2nd favourites were first and 4th in 2009 The 3rd favourite was the best performer from the head of the market, winning in 2008, finishing 2nd in 2011, and gaining two 4th places in 2010 and 2013 The joint 3rd favourites came first and third in 2014, with no other places The 4th favouirite won in 2011, but had no other places in 6 years Those mentioned above account for 11 of the first 4 home over 7 years of the other 17 places, 9 came from the first 10 in the market, while the other 8 were bigger prices |
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I'll post Wednesdays races on Tuesday morning.
So that moaners can get moaning before racing starts. |
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I shouldn't bother, there's plenty of this useless rubbish elsewhere
 http://www.attheraces.com/cheltenham/list.aspx?lid=cheltenham+-+festival+trendspotting |
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Chmpion Hurdle is a cracking ew race if all 8 go to post, 1/4 the odds.
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A few questions to start the Festival off
1) How many races were there on the Thursday of 2008 2) Who holds the record for the fastest time for the Gold Cup 3) Who had the fastest time for the Gold Cup before the answer to Q2 4) What will be the total distance covered by races this year (not including the charity race) |
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1) only day of the festival I have ever been to, picked a good day, there were 10 races
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Q1) Done and dusted - correct.
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Norton's Coin broke the record in 1990, don't know if that could be the answer to either question 2 or 3
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It isn't.
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What happened to this thread? I thought it was just full of meaningless statistics!
Any road, Long Run. |
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2) - correct
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Mikael D'Haguenet
10 Mar 15 10:07 What happened to this thread? I thought it was just full of meaningless statistics! Nore on the way. |
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A few questions to start the Festival off
1) How many races were there on the Thursday of 2008 - 10 pumphol 2) Who holds the record for the fastest time for the Gold Cup - Long Run Mikael D'Haguenet 3) Who had the fastest time for the Gold Cup before the answer to Q2 4) What will be the total distance covered by races this year (not including the charity race) |
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Can't wait.
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Is number 3 Best Mate
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No.
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War of Attrition?
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Must be Looks like Trouble run on G/F ground
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Last question around 70 miles
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Good shout. Faster than WoA anyway.
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Everyone said Norton's Coin win was a very poor gold cup yet it ran one of the fastest times ever
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1) How many races were there on the Thursday of 2008 - 10 pumphol
2) Who holds the record for the fastest time for the Gold Cup - Long Run Mikael D'Haguenet 3) Who had the fastest time for the Gold Cup before the answer to Q2 - Looks Like Trouble - pumphol 4) What will be the total distance covered by races this year (not including the charity race) Around 70 miles????? It needs to be exact in readiness for question 5, when it arrives. |
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Placepot pool is £118,000 already.
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kenny mann
09 Mar 15 13:04 Chmpion Hurdle is a cracking ew race if all 8 go to post, 1/4 the odds. Just read on the HR forum that Corals are going a fifth the odds. |