Forums
Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
Stow_judge
23 Oct 14 14:28
Joined:
Date Joined: 10 Mar 01
| Topic/replies: 10,954 | Blogger: Stow_judge's blog
You play a game of Russian roulette with another person, is it better to go first or second?
Pause Switch to Standard View Russian roulette
Show More
Loading...
Report Ozymandius October 23, 2014 2:32 PM BST
First, apparently, assuming the barrel is not rotated after each shot.

If the barrel is rotated after each shot it doesn't really matter, so best let the other numpty go first in case he gets unlucky.
Report doantwin2easy October 23, 2014 3:57 PM BST
a much enjoyed and entertaining game whichever way you look at it
Report Stow_judge October 23, 2014 4:42 PM BST
There is no way I'd go first!

The answer, according to Plus Maths Magazine is that it's better to go first. Here's their explanation:
Let a be the chance that the person to shoot first wins the game and let b be the chance that the person to shoot second does, so a+b=1. Suppose that you go first. The probability b that your opponent wins is equal to the probability p that he or she survives your first shot times the probability q that he or she wins the game from then on, after having survived the first shot. Since 5 of the 6 chambers are empty and each has an equal chance of containing the bullet, we get p=5/6. Once your opponent has survived the first round, he or she turns into the player to go first, with probability a of winning the game, so q=a. This gives b=5/6a. Putting this together with the fact that a+b=1 gives a=6/11 and b=5/11. Hence you have a greater chance of winning if you take the first shot.
Report naydam October 23, 2014 7:16 PM BST
How is one defining 'winning'?
Report PatraTheCat October 24, 2014 12:38 AM BST
I thought that with Russian roulette you pointed the gun at your own head. Didn't everybody else think that?

In which case it's obviously better to go second if the barrel is rotated.
If the barrel isn't rotated, it obviously doesn't matter.
Report yorky October 24, 2014 12:42 AM BST
if it got to shot 6 and you were both still alive is it over or are you obliged to shoot yerself ,whats the official rules
Report Pokermonster October 24, 2014 12:46 AM BST
You sure as hell wouldn't want to be shooting fifth because you'd be fúcked either way.
Report ebulGery October 24, 2014 2:30 AM BST
Must be first...1 in 6 of real bullet

2nd 1 in 5

Christopher Waldren was good at this in the 'Deer Hunter' he survived for years playing this
Report ebulGery October 24, 2014 2:36 AM BST
also on 2nd round

you are 1/4 against 1/3

and on last round you are 1/2 against 1/1Sad

oh I see...stow judge worked all that out up the thread
Report naydam October 24, 2014 2:39 AM BST
You should always spin between turns...so the safer bet is to go second (assuming the game stops when the gun fires).
There was a scene in a film where they were pulling the trigger twice but I assume that, when the gun was passed to next player, the chamber would be spun again. Otherwise there would be no tension because you would know when the bullet was occupying the next firing chamber.
Report ebulGery October 24, 2014 2:41 AM BST
this is if it is not respun every time

if it is respun, you are always better off going 2nd, that gives you one less chance
of killing yourself than your opponent
Report ebulGery October 24, 2014 2:41 AM BST
oh dear..naydam beat me to that one as wellBlush
Report ebulGery October 24, 2014 2:42 AM BST
assuming the game stops when the gun fires

I suspect that may be the caseLaugh
Report U.A. October 24, 2014 6:49 AM BST
Yeah Plus Maths Magazine are wrong. Seems like they are trying to make something more complicated than it is. The answer is the probability of winning is the same whether you go first or second, assuming 1 bullet and the chamber not being respun.

Say Player A goes first and B goes second.
At the start when the decision is made if the bullet is in chamber 2, 4 or 6 then player A wins. If it is 1,3 or 5 then player B wins.
The chance of it being in 2, 4 or 6 is 50%, same as 1, 3 or 5.

If your asking whether it's better to go first or second after 1,2,3 plus shots have been fired then that's different but at the beginning when no shots have been fired the probability is the same.
Report morpteh mackem October 24, 2014 8:52 AM BST
find it a great game to play after xmas dinner, just before charades
Report dunlaying October 24, 2014 2:48 PM BST
Stow,by winning do they mean blowing one's head apart? I have it the other way round .
Report dunlaying October 24, 2014 4:43 PM BST
I have put up one idea for a solution on the blog pages.
Post Your Reply
<CTRL+Enter> to submit
Please login to post a reply.

Wonder

Instance ID: 13539
www.betfair.com