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Replies: 145
By:
Alias
When: 14 Sep 14 11:56
It will have to, because commerce will have fled

sfbtw, we've heard it all before. Going back to the '79 devo referendum (when the result was, to all intents and purposes legally fixed), Standard Life had countless banners in their office windows for No, and they wrote to all of their staff more or less warning them that if Yes prevailed, they'd be out of a job, they'd be in London by Christmas etc. No won of course, but Yes prevailed in the '97 vote. Guess what? Standard Life are STILL in Edinburgh, with about a dozen locations at least. Put simply, they are chancers, and that goes for both versions of the company, as a mutual and since demutualisation a few years ago. Hardly anyone believes them and no wonder. How many times do they think they can cry wolf and be believed?
You can post all the links you want, and here's another.


http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/5b5ec2ca-8a67-11e3-ba54-00144feab7de.html#slide0


stewarty b 13 Sep 14 21:17 Joined: 02 Aug 02 | Topic/replies: 7,577 | Blogger: stewarty b's blog
In the unlikely event it's a yes vote our children's children's children will never forgive us for the mess they wont be able to clean up. We will not be here to answer to them, however I'm fairly sure the champers will be flowing on the 19th. (in my household anyways)

So we're not in a mess now? The UK is among the top 20 most indebted countries in the world - top(or bottom if you prefer) according to some, and has some of the most stringent labour laws as well, worse even than Spain and Portugal which were fascist dictatorships well into the 1970s. It's not going to get better in the UK, unless you are independently wealthy. If not, staying in the UK is a bigger risk than any other option.

http://www.arabianmoney.net/banking-finance/2011/08/28/uk-most-indebted-nation-in-the-world-reveals-new-study/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debt

Plenty more references out there if you care to look.
By:
Alias
When: 14 Sep 14 12:01
Hamstrung by a soft currency pegged to the British pound Ireland suffered decades of lousy living standards and being dictated to by its foreign customers.

Insert "neighbouring capital" in place of "foreign customers" and it sounds a bit like Scotland today.
By:
lfc1971
When: 14 Sep 14 12:38
On balance it might be the right thing for Scotland to vote yes. England is virtually bankrupt and it seems
it is rapidly falling apart. There is little to tempt the Scots to stay.
By:
Dotchinite
When: 14 Sep 14 12:47
Cameron has played a blinder here but im not sure its going to be quite enough to get the yes vote home as there are an awful lot of educated clever scots who can see through Salmond and will vote no despite Camerons efforts. 

Im still hoping that the Yes vote will get a late surge but i doubt it will happen
By:
Alias
When: 14 Sep 14 13:47
"NEW POWERS"Laugh



http://newsnetscotland.com/index.php/referendum/9736-we-will-block-more-powers-warns-tory-mp
By:
Alias
When: 14 Sep 14 13:50
BBC, unbiased as always...Laugh

http://wingsoverscotland.com/and-then-my-heart-went-boom/#more-61698
By:
scandanavian_haven
When: 14 Sep 14 14:56
A lot of scaremongering on this thread, I don't think you can compare Russia to Scotland either
By:
brendanuk1
When: 14 Sep 14 15:17
yes some pure bollocks coming out from the No side, they want to instil fear. control by fear
By:
Dotchinite
When: 14 Sep 14 16:59
Lets be honest its bollocks all round. Salmond has lied and distorted from the start. If YES wins he is going to be seriously unpopular in afew years time when reality dawns.
By:
akabula
When: 14 Sep 14 17:31
Met some friends in Falkirk yesterday and we went into the town centre for a coffee and walkabout just after noon.
Both lots of campaigners had stalls in the high street, Dennis Canavan was speaking at one, but very few people seemed interested.
Neither had more than about a dozen people listening. People fed up with all the rhetoric? That seems favourite.
BTW to the young girl, 20ish, screaming like a banshee at the young lad who was handing out leaflets for the NO campaign, congratulations, you made a right ar5e out of yourself. BTW it was a lovely day.
By:
bodil
When: 15 Sep 14 22:50
And like a dog to its vomit, I'm back. Well, I'd had a bad day - a chunky bet on Cotai Glory and one of those milestone/tombstone birthdays after which it's all downhill.  I'd also polished off a bottle of spirits which one of my ex's had got from a house clearance.  She said it was vintage vodka - I suspect it was methanol.   So I wasn't my usual sunny self.  I apologise for the vile slurs - though I'm pretty sure they were bits of old Frankie Boyle routines - isn't he a Yes-man?  My original post was also censored (I can see the legal justification) - mainly the bits about what happened in Eire post-independence (genuine independence in Ireland's case) and what the Nat politicians and their business buddies would do post-separation.  I'll be careful not to name names now.

Well my sight's back and I'm sober but I'm still mad about the idiots who arranged the possible destruction of my country but allowed me no say - along with 92% of my countrymen.  It's ironic the chief meddler from this side of the border is called Cameron, don't you think?  Profoundly anti-democratic.  And don't complain you didn't get the goverment you voted for - nor did we, but that's how it works half the time. I also know the whole fiasco will cost tens of billions, partly punishment by the markets for attempting financial suicide but mostly unravelling 300 years of shared institutions. It'll cost us the most but per capita Scots will pay the biggest price.  And all so unneccessary.
By:
bodil
When: 15 Sep 14 22:55
Another thing I'm mad at is the arguments of the Yes faction.  Except there are no reasoned arguments now.  Their spin doctors/advisors have told them to just keep loudly repeating a set number of slogans: 'Save our NHS' (it's been under your control for years), 'We're the 14th richest nation in the world'(if you exclude your share of the national debt and include a lot of currently sub-economic oil(see subsequent post), you just might be), 'Reject the Westminster elite' (our current PM has a Scottish father, our 2 previous PMs were born in Scotland, half a dozen of the PMs in the 20thC were Scottish or had Scottish ancestry - if you vote yes WE might be able to reject the Westminster elite - you can have them back.  You take Blair, we'll keep Carol Kirkwood.)  Bullyboy tactics of shouting down the opposition also bring to mind Geman politics in the early 1930s (the Blueshirts?) - and are counterproductive anyway.
By:
bodil
When: 15 Sep 14 23:05
So the yes vote is successful.  You've painted your faces blue, gone down to the border, lifted your kilts and exposed your buttocks to a few disinterested English sheep, beat up a couple of OAPs with a No poster in their window and pushed dog excrement through JK Rowling's letter box.  What then?  Are you suddenly better educated, more talented, dynamic and motivated, more entrepreneurial?  If you aren't next Thursday, you wont be next Friday. We're all experts on here at turning our lives around - our redemptions have been staged numerous times.  Giving up the booze, losing weight, improving one's mind, working harder - easy - I've done it all dozens of times.  Are you going to found the new Microsoft or Google, or develop a wonder drug from heather?  No, you're going to take revenge on the approximate half who voted no and then demand a state-sponsored job because you voted yes.  All this talk about both sides coming together to make a united Scotland whatever the result is garbage.  Grudges will be held.  The SNP will attempt reward its friends and punish the No supporters regardless.  Anyone with a contract with the devolved Scottish govt has known for some time that open support for the No campaign will have 'consequences'.
By:
crags
When: 15 Sep 14 23:11
I'm sure any yes voters will have changed their minds reading that, bodil. Shame that we are not talking in vast numbers here in this backwater.
By:
Wallflower
When: 15 Sep 14 23:11
ahw, sush, you're raving man
By:
pawras
When: 15 Sep 14 23:13
well if they vote yes we won't need to waste money expanding that last bit A1 heading up there.
By:
bodil
When: 15 Sep 14 23:19
Independence vs Separation/Divorce?  It's pretty insulting to compare yourselves with black South Africans (both to the English and the Africans).  The Scots were the driving force behind the Act of Union partly because you'd bankrupted yourselves with the Darien scheme but mostly because you saw an opportunity in the growing British Empire.  You certainly profited from the latter - Glasgow was second only to London for industry and finance.  There are many of Scottish descent in most of the former colonies (well the dominantly white ones where your excellent soldiers helped reduce the indigenous populations).  Between 1885 and 1939, a third of all governor-generals were Scots.  About 60% of all current Jamaican surnames are Scottish - draw you own conclusions.  Now we no longer have a third of the world to exploit you want rid of us?  Sob.  But don't worry!  Now you're enhancing you social security system and the rUK is cutting back, the Empire will be coming to you!  If the Jamaican contingent repay the compliment, the phone book wont look very different! And brendanuk's quoting of the Declaration of Independence is wonderful comedy.  Let's consider the category of 'all men created equal.'  No native Americans, no blacks (many of the First Congress were slave owners - I suppose the Scots had that in common), no Asians, no women, no poor uneducated white men and no rich or educated white men who disagreed with them (Royalists).  Classic weasel words indeed.
By:
crags
When: 15 Sep 14 23:20
I see bodil has turned his light off, bit early for him to be doing that he must be feeling very emotional Love
By:
crags
When: 15 Sep 14 23:21
Oh, he's back again  Mischief
By:
bodil
When: 15 Sep 14 23:32
Oil.  If you had done this in the mid-70s I suspect you could have become the socialist workers (or non-workers) paradise that you claim you can create now.  OK, Edinburgh and Glasgow would be as ethnically diverse as London is now and the native Scots would be priced out of the housing market, but it would have worked.  You claim you've got 26 billion barrels left?  Look, oil companies work on pretty simple lines - if they can get 10-15% return on capital guaranteed they'll drill/develop.  Doesn't matter if the country is run by Trotskyites, cannibals or dictators who boil their opponents alive.  If there's a profit, they're interested.  Talk about big undiscovered reserves in the North Sea is garbage.  It's a very mature basin.  The economic basement is well-defined and hundreds of thousands of kms of seismic have been shot.  All hydrocarbon systems leak and extensive surface seepage surveys have been carried out. If there was anything profitably sizeable it would have been drilled by now.  Someone mentioned the Clyde Estuary basin - far too small, the economic basement is too shallow, and it's full of Tertiary volcanics (I recall there are extinct 2 volcanoes/magma vents on Arran alone).  You rarely get big oil associated with extensive igneous rocks.  Still look on the bright side - you can form a National Oil Company with all your SNP experts and go wildcatting.  At least it will give the rest of us scrabbling for cans of food in the ruins of the UK a good laugh.

(less barracking crags - I'm stone-cold sober)
By:
crags
When: 15 Sep 14 23:34
bodil has has a lumpy bet on the No vote... NAP  Laugh
By:
crags
When: 15 Sep 14 23:36
I'm always on your side, bodil. You should know that by now.
By:
bodil
When: 15 Sep 14 23:42
The shale oil and gas revolution really has been a game changer - a paradigm shift (love that phrase - learnt it from a Scotswoman).  But for the SNP the timing couldn't have been worse.  Suddenly most of Scotland's remaining reserves are uneconomic.  Fracking offshore reservoirs has been routine for a while (including in the North Sea) but only recently have they developed equipment to greatly increase pressures and thus the extent of hydrofracturing.  But this is for tricky reservoir rocks - not the source rocks of conventional onshore fracking.  Historically recovery factors average about 30%, ie fields described as exhausted still contain about 70% of the original oil-in-place.  The next big episode in the fracking story will be hydrofracking these old fields.  You may only get another 10% but that's still tens of billions of barrels.  Not great news for small expensive offshore oil prospects.  You can't do it with existing N Sea fields because the platforms aren't designed for it and would have to replaced anyway because they are close to the end of their safe working lives.  Decommisioning costs for existing rigs will be in the high billions anyway.  SNP estimates of oil income are hopelessly optimistic and completely out of their control.  You've got the Middle East going up in flames and Russia's vast reserves being sanctioned - and the price is going down!  Principally because the US is now self-sufficient thanks to shale oil and gas.  It's why Obama has seemed pretty disinterested in ME politics, whereas Bush invaded Iraq pre-fracking.
By:
bodil
When: 15 Sep 14 23:53
So I look at the SNP and their fellow travellers and wonder where the talent for this thrusting, dynamic new Scotland is.  Apart from a  well-developed resentment/dislike of the English and a hunger for self-advancement at the expense of the majority I see nothing out of the ordinary.  Could you Yes supporters give me the names of some of these exceptional individuals who are going to lead you to the promised land?  I notice your most prominent/vocal supporters in the Arts have put the Atlantic between you and themselves.  I listed some of the recent self-inflicted events that might make a person wary of Scottish financial talent - the massive cost overrun (10x initial estimates)for the Scottish Parliament building, the Edinburgh tram system, HBOS and RBS ('the biggest bank(rupt) in the world') but I'd forgotten an example that must be closer to the hearts of many of you.  I recall watching Celtic win a European Cup in real time - cultured football from a team stuffed full of talented Scots.  What happened?  Now Celtic and Rangers would struggle to survive in our Championship and the best home-grown Scots remaining dream only of coming south to play in the Premier League.  Not a good advertisment for Scottish management/talent, eh?
By:
Pleasegivemeanailedontip
When: 15 Sep 14 23:54
Dont get the yes vote. Presumably for a long LONG time before the England Scotland Wales nonsense, we were a single island of people, and years later were still a smaller collective island than most countries.
Getting people to forget about all the divided England/Scotland nonsense inbetween looked impossibly difficult anyway, even after 300 years of semi-reunion, but to have it undone and redivided again by a deluded fat man, twenty years after a dodgy mel gibson film? How embarrassing will that one look in the long term history of these isles.
By:
bodil
When: 15 Sep 14 23:56
Sod it, I'll do the welfare system, NHS, financial system and whiskey tomorrow.  Sobriety's no fun.
By:
sofiakenny
When: 15 Sep 14 23:57
bodil...sorry mate but you have nothing to do  with what the Scots choose to do on Thursday.
By:
crags
When: 16 Sep 14 00:00
Everyone is fully entitled to an opinion.
By:
sofiakenny
When: 16 Sep 14 00:01
by the way I am fairly impressed that your typing skills are so good after consuming an entire bottle of spirits..well done sir.
By:
bodil
When: 16 Sep 14 22:44
Generally numbed silence - that's good.  Expect the Nats have seen the truth and wisdom of my words and are now trying to find an Englishman to kiss.

sofiak - it's because it's nothing to do with me that I am so incensed (that and the Korean liquor).  What a political f/u.  On the other hand I can choose to not send the odd ten thousand £s Scotland's way in my lifetime if it votes Yes.  Reckon there's another 10-20 million at least so inclined.  In the end we will have a giant say on the outcome.  Not to mention on the rUK political scene.  Vengeance will be ours - if necessary.  Like any divorce they say 'it's me, not you' but we know it is us.  We will cut up their expensive suits, distribute their vintage wine to the neighbours, have a ton of horseshit dumped on their front lawn and super-glue all their locks.

WhiskEy - and the EU.  I write whiskey because it's what we'll be switching to in case of a Yes vote.  From Ireland and the US (Wales even).  Oddly enough there was more Irish whiskey consumed here a few years before Irish independence than scotch.  What goes around comes around.  Once you're out of the EU - and you will be for at least 5 years the Spanish Foreign Minister said today - no tariff-free exports to Europe (45% exports) and no free-trade agreements with most of the rest of world.  Add currency instability re pricing, less protection against counterfeit 'scotch', reduced exports to rUK, and no wonder the major distillers are looking anxious.  And, as your second biggest earner next to oil (and not far from it), the Scottish government is more than likely to increase taxes on it to cover shortfalls elsewhere.

Will you get into the EU?  You'll be about as welcome as a recently-arrived West African with a high temperature.  In order of decreasing agitating-regional-independence-movements, Spain, Belgium, Italy and France are likely to make entry hard for you. I've even read a suggestion you'll get the Elgin Marbles as part of the divorce settlement so Greece can be obstructive.  rUK could even block your entry but we wont.  After all, as 'one of the richest countries in Europe', you'll be paying barrow-loads of cash to the impoverished east, unlike Ireland which received shed-loads of cash to squander.  And you'll have to adopt the euro - and you've seen what that's doing to formerly-high-spending countries.
By:
bodil
When: 16 Sep 14 22:57
If you keep the pound you'll have fiscal, monetary, banking and regulatory policy set by the Bank of England.  So interest rates, borrowing and spending will be dictated by a London-based central bank under a near-permanent Tory government (or one heavily influenced by Nige and his loons) as Labour lose 40 or so Scottish seats.  Not exactly independence, is it?  You'll still have control of taxes - but be forced to increase most of them.  If you use the currency but not the central bank (like Panama, El Salvador and Kosovo, for example) you'll have to increase bank reserves and reduce bank deposit-guarantees (goodbye customers!) and also build up big reserves of your own in case of financial crises, ie cut social spending. The more you think about it, the more you realise the SNP and friends haven't thought through even 5% of the implications ('trust us - it'll be alright!').  It's very likely property prices will fall (not such a bad thing - increased affordability) and interest/mortgage rates will increase (not such a good thing).
By:
HH Sultan Vinegar
When: 16 Sep 14 23:02
great stuff bodil Grin You're certainly correct about the oil.
By:
bodil
When: 16 Sep 14 23:15
Froth!

Consider the welfare state and NHS.  The SNP and Scottish Labour Party are essentially socialist, right?  One or the other will be in power post-separation.  The reason the separatists are getting the old Labour vote is because they are promising higher benefits/pensions.  Labour can't because they know for a certainty the current system is unsustainable.  When pensions were introduced most recipients were dead within 5 years of retirement.  Now most live for 20 years+.  Current retirement ages have bankrupted the system.  Nor should any benefits system allow people to choose not working (and having lots of kids as profit centres) as a way of life.  Of course any decent state should provide a safety net for those temporarily out of a job, and support the old and infirm.  A society that didn't provide a good education and basic healthcare for its citizens wouldn't thrive or survive.  But what do you do when a large number of citizens can't be bothered to get an education and become unemployable, or smoke/drink/become obese and become a burden to the NHS?
By:
call me a taxi
When: 16 Sep 14 23:24
bodil for PM imo.
By:
erse2
When: 16 Sep 14 23:25
Likely, but don't bet on the SNP getting anywhere near the proportion of representation they have now. The SNP are a means to an end, and their popular vote this time round is more a calculated vote in response to a long Labour period in Westminster coming to an and and the Conservatives coming to power.

Clearly with independence possibly gaining 50% of the vote, I think it's safe to say that 50% of the electorate would not vote for the SNP.

I imagine that post-independence there would be a re-evaluation of political parties on both sides of the border. It seems like the Tories have been quite divisive over the past 30 years or so over Europe, and of course the growing concern of UKIP of late.
By:
bodil
When: 16 Sep 14 23:33
The NHS, like almost any other large organization (police, social services {consider the last 2 re the Rochdale scandal}, legal system, education establishment, many charities etc), is mostly run for the benefit of the people staffing it, not the customers.  If the public do benefit, that's a pleasing side effect, but it's not the principal aim.  A few examples.  Labour renegotiated the the GPs' contracts, resulting in a doubling of salaries to around £100k and elimination of all evening and weekend callouts.  Now out-of-hours work is done by expensive locums (eg German Nigerians with a poor grasp of English and little grasp of modern medicine) or overloaded A&E departments, already full of violent or comatose drunks (including south of the border).  Nice one.  Labour truly did pour a lot of money into the NHS but about 80% went on salaries, not towards improving healthcare. Nurses now have to have degrees and are now too qualified to actually look after sick/smelly/whining/demented patients who are sometimes left to die of thirst/hunger in their own excrement.  40% of people who work in the NHS would not recommend treatment in their own places of work.  The NHS is a gaping money-pit - you can never fill it.  It needs reforming - maybe more senior doctors/matrons running things instead of vastly overpaid managers and their underlings?  Certainly there are many things that can be done nation-wide to reduce costs - go to the cheapest adequate supplier (some trusts pay 3-4x more than others for the same product). The patients also need to take better care of themselves.  Most baby-boomers in the UK are going to take out far more money from the pension/healthcare system than they ever contributed (5-10x&+?).  Unsustainable with an ageing population.  And Scotland has more of an ageing population than rUK.

Good god, erse.  That's the first non-scatological post I've seen from you.  Are you unwell?  Are you Scottish?
By:
erse2
When: 16 Sep 14 23:47
i always find that the smart arses will go for the simplest points to score.

still, if we're standing by our posts as a reference of character... you have made some comments in poor taste.
By:
call me a taxi
When: 16 Sep 14 23:48
Now out-of-hours work is done by expensive locums (eg German Nigerians with a poor grasp of English and little grasp of modern medicine)

Like the one that killed a man in Cambridgeshire with an overdose a couple of years ago.
By:
bodil
When: 17 Sep 14 00:29
The national debt is roughly £1.5 trillion, about £25,000/person.  We pay about £40 billion interest on this pa.  Unfortunately if you add in unfunded public sector pensions, PFI payments (what a crock of **** that turned out to be) and a few other bits, it's nearer £4 billion+, or £65-70,000 pp.  To keep ourselves in the manner we think we deserve we've mortgaged the future.  The under-30s and a couple more generations will be paying our debts.  If the proposed SNP benefits are introduced the as-yet unborn and their unborn children will inherit the debt.  This is theft from the future on a massive scale. 

All this rubbish about the wicked Tories imposing massive austerity is garbage.  Since this government was elected (strictly it wasn't elected by anyone) they have increased the national debt by £600 billion.  They have slowed the rate of increase of the deficit but we are still borrowing £2 billion a week ('because we're worth it.').  We can do (at least) 3 things. We could live within our means, cut the welfare state and pay back a chunk of our debts.  That would be the act of a decent moral society.  Any political party that suggests that faces oblivion. Bribes to the electorate are easily given but nearly impossible to claw back.  We could print money to inflate part of our debt away by degrading the currency.  This we have done by 20-25% but have reached the acceptable limit (we need to stay among the least worst options).  Finally we could renege on the debt (as Alex S has suggested the new Scotland might).  This would be in the style of Argentina.  Nobody would lend us money expect at ruinous rates (hey, that just did in Phones4U). 

OK, the Korean spirit has kicked in and I'm not sure where I am or why.  Why anything?  I do recall the last time I drank it I woke up in the afternoon to find I had executed my Uncle and sent his immediate family to 'correctional' camps.  Wrong Korea.  But due to poor sales it had been reduced in price by 50% - who could resist?  I'll tie up the loose ends tomorrow.  Wouldn't want the voters to not have the facts.


Am I confusing erse2 with erse?  That would account for my surprise.  Are you familiar with your doppelganger?
By:
erse2
When: 17 Sep 14 00:37
Your extended post is all well and good, but you're talking about a government that is 90% elected by people not living in Scotland, and regardless of whether it's a Labour government voted in partly by Scottish votes, it's voted in on the knowledge of a UK wide vote. My constituency in Scotland tends to suffer from 'tactical voting' to vote in the Liberal Democrats, rather than a Conservative.

You're also comparing it to SNP policy which is merely the one manifesto that would be available to an independent Scotland.

The election is about choosing independence, not about bringing the SNP into power. There's not really much to say about the current national debt in the scope of Scotland and independence. The only political party willing to entertain the yes vote and provide a manifesto has done, and offered to pay a 'fair' share of the debt.

The other parties in Scotland have said nothing on how they would choose to negotiate with a rUK government on these issues.
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