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you have a choice of 3 boxes box 1 box 2 and box 3, in one of them is £100, in the other two there is nothing.
Say you choose box number 1.
Then box number 3 is opened revealing nothing.
You are then given the option to change your box number 1 to box number 2. Should you swop? Or doesn't it matter?
Say you choose box number 1.
Then box number 3 is opened revealing nothing.
You are then given the option to change your box number 1 to box number 2. Should you swop? Or doesn't it matter?
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answer is you should swop boxes
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Well, there's a general misunderstanding, perpetuated by that abysmal Kevin Spacey film, that you should swap.
In reality, it depends on what you know about the intentions of the person who gave you the option to change your mind. Proved it on a long country walk, once. |
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If there is no intent from the person offering the swop then mathematically you should swop the boxes.
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Shake both the boxes
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It's a definite swap.
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Weigh both the boxes
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ffs why are you answering your own question 2 minutes later, not much of a brain game with the answer is it
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50/50 chance so it makes no difference
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because acquiesce, then those can ask why or those can argue it makes no difference etc.
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because acquiesce, then those can ask why or those can argue it makes no difference etc.
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such as crags
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 ffs |
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ok make the boxes three horses & all are 2/1 shots
you take box 1 then box three becomes a non runner that is a rule 4 of 33.333% 66.666% of your box 1 ( which was a 2/1 shot when you picked it ) after the rule 4 makes that a 1.333/1 shot or almost an 11/8 shot. Hence in that situation you have to change to box 2 as that has to be an odds on shot. Hope that helps |
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plus the title is brain games which is the tv show it was just on. So posters could also have watched it.
But you don't seem the sharpest tool in the box acquiesce. So the title was for the show, and the topic to encourage discussion on it. |
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It's the Monty Hall problem. You have a 66.6 percent chance of success if you swap.
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It makes no difference (nap)
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To put it in simple terms for chit chatters
 One box has the dosh, one box hasn't. 50/50 |
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Even money shot in my eyes.
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Crags.
Imagine how many times you will pick the winning box at the outset; it's obviously a 2 to 1 against shot. And that's exactly where the odds will stay if you don't swap, sir. |
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If you pick an empty box at the outset, however, and then swap, the other guy is forced to open the only other empty box. This is why you now have a 66.6 percent chance of success instead of 33.3 percent.
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I'm keeping my box as It's 50/50 chance. To swap and lose would be heart breaking. I do watch DONT you know
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Any outcome other than evens each the two is just a clever use of words and/or numbers.
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You're a prat who wanted to look clever and instead has been to look an idiot.
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Most folk probably agree with you at first, sir. Until they have that eureka moment, of course, and realise the truth.
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Go to google and look up Monty Hall problem.
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They should make this into a game show.
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A better question might be can topspin be applied to a cueball?
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Have you got any more questions and answers male01
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Go to google and look up Monty Hall problem.
Where you will find that by phrasing it cleverly you will feel compelled to now swap your even money shot for another even money shot. |
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Great thread
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Akabula:
It has nothing to do with how you phrase the question, sir. You have a 66.6 percent chance of success if you swap and only 33.3 percent chance if you don't. The key to understanding this is to realise that the other guy is forced to open the only other empty box if you had originally chosen correctly. As you will only choose correctly 33.3 percent of the time it stands to reason that it is advantageous to swap. |
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I'm always going to swap
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I'd give anyone 60/40 on their money if they agreed to run it one thousand times and allowed me to swap.
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I wouldn't swap but would be interested in seeing it played out like Pokermonster suggests
An interesting thread on chit chat |
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Pokermonster,
Your analysis is completely correct if you know that the host will always give you the chance to swap. However, in reality, there's nothing to stop a host thinking "OK, if he chooses the right box on his first go, I'll open one of the others and offer him the chance to swap. If he chooses the wrong box on his first go, I'll go ahead and open it straight away." In such an instance, you will be right 100% of the time if you don't swap, and 0% of the time if you do. |
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Well, quite, but it was specifically stated that the swap option would be given.
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Well, it wasn't in the OP.
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Even if it worked 60/40 in favour of swap I'd still not swap in a one off situation- as that would always be 50/50 . if you see what I mean.
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You have a choice of 3 boxes box 1 box 2 and box 3, in one of them is £100, in the other two there is nothing.
Say you choose box number 1. Then box number 3 is opened revealing nothing. You are then given the option to change your box number 1 to box number 2. Should you swop? Or doesn't it matter? |