how many MP's wiill UKIP have next year after the election??

unfortunately for them, the twizzles and moisoks of this world find it difficult to differentiate between westminster and strasbourg

Arent they odds on now to get a seat.

500,000 to five they get more than 1.

Thank you.

Where are you laying these odds mug OP please?

Pandora must have a MASSIVE bank.

have you decided how much of my bet you can cover yet?

I'll have a piece of that 1 at 200/1.

Farage can cherry-pick any constituency he likes (Bath probably, where UKIP is strong and has good local party apparatus). A lot will depend on the momentum they have generated after the European and local elections today but 200/1? Where can I get this bet on?

UKIP - contested 21 Wards in Rotherham - and WON 10 of them ...

Ukip has won 10 seats in Rotherham, in the process ousting several prominent Labour councillors, including the deputy leader of the council.
The assertive victory was seized on by the anti-EU party as proof that it appeals to working-class Labour voters as well as disaffected Tories. The results far exceeded Ukip hopes and Labour's worst fears.

The [b[anti-EU party won seven seats from Labour[/b] and two from the Conservatives and held the one seat it won in a byelection last year.
It also scooped up votes from the disintegrating British National Party, which had two councillors in its 2008 peak. Labour will keep control of the council it has run for 80 years, but Ukip is now the official opposition.

labour-lib dem coalition in next parliment,thats enough to scare anyone to ukip.

Cameron wins next election with boris j having a role as the personality

It's going to be the most fascinating election in living memory.

You have a coalition government defending its record - how will these partners seek to take plaudits and apportion blame for the last 4 years.

You have the rise of populist party for the first time in a Century - how will thy maintain momentum after these elections? What are their policies? How will they get around the notion they are a single issue / protest vote party. What substance is there beyond Farage?

Labour - Having sought to diminish their historical links with the Unions, who exactly do they stand for now? And where will they generate funds for an election?

Really interesting times for anyone with an interest in UK politics

I think when push comes to shove the electorate aren't going to fancy milliband, who looks out of his depth.

Tricky isn't it Howdi?

You have to factor in the increased coverage / scrutiny all parties will receive, whether there will be TV debates, how well the economy does over the next 12 months and how this translates through to peoples disposable income.

I think the Liberals will make some sort of a fightback if they are honest and say 'We could have sat on the sidelines and been a hectoring minority forever. We chose not to and that meant ditching flagship policies such as no tuition fees. We have curbed the excesses of Tory policy. What more do you expect?'

I think the Tories will make hay off the back of an improved economy (an 'it's all about the economy stupid') despite this being a coalition effort. They will ask for a mandate to 'finish the job'

Sadly I think Labour will flounder. Their 'not everyone is benefitting from a better economy' message does not (at a visceral level) appear to be getting through. Their Union links are diminishing and Miliband is probably the worst of the main party leaders in terms of presence and 'likeability'. This shouldn't be an issue - but it is sadly.

UKIP are the unknown element. Will there be a Con / UKIP pact, even a loose one? Will their policies stand up to robust scrutiny? Will their 'gaffe' factor prove insurmountable? Historically they have never been able to maintain any gains in Euro Elections through to a General Election, but will it be different now? I also think there is a personality gap beyond Farage which will play on voters minds. Plus of course the first past the post system really mitigates against them having a huge representation in Parliament.

Tentatively, I'd say a hung Parliament at this stage, with UKIP taking votes (but not seats to any major degree) off Labour and Conservative, with Liberals doing better than expected (although expectations are very low there anyway!)

Then? Another election at the end of 2015 I'm afraid!

i remember the sdp and the gang of 4 going to blow away the big parties

dr david owen for pm, etc etc



will ukip continue and get wiped out over time, or sell out and take the
tory whip ?

Feel free to bring it back when it's proven completely wrong on post-Election day 2015!!

having farage around until the next election removes a lot of the mud
slinging on to the major parties, he will cop plenty of flack that
would otherwise land on cameron clegg and miliband, they have therefore
been not too unhappy to allow him to be around, until the real campaign
starts.

an interesting year ahead

the parties are starting to realise -insulting the voters and ukip hasn't worked
but that doesn't apply to the sophisticated critics of ukip on here

back to grass roots and socialism.

moisok, do you mean nationalisation?

Large corporations are pro EU because they benefit a great deal from it. And as we all know, what benefits large corporations doesn't really benefit everyone else.

The reason for this is twofold-the EU is one giant protection racket. It is a huge barrier to people who trade outside of it via tariffs and duties which pushes up the prices of their cheaper goods. Thus higher prices are maintained (not good for us), developing countries are denied access to a large market (not good for them) and large corporations maintain decent profits as a result (good for them).

Secondly, open borders act as a huge benefit to multinationals. When you're that large, you can pick and choose countries where you want to base your manufacturing/headquarters etc. Case in point the Pfizer/Astrazeneca bid, where part of the reason for the bid meant that Pfizer could relocate it's tax base from the USA to the UK and therefore pay less tax. That's the scale that these companies can, and do, think.
So how does it apply to the workforce? Imagine you're a huge company and you have large operations in the UK. You've mechanised, you've streamlined, you've cut every cost you can. And yet you still have a legacy workforce who are working with decent pay and benefits and this is a huge cost. So how can you cut costs here, you can't just mechanise everything can you.

Enter the EU and it's insistence on letting poor countries enter the EU. Does anyone stop to think what the benefit is to the EU for doing this? It is still primarily a trading bloc after all. What benefit is there letting such poor countries into the EU-they don't have any remarkable markets that we need access to and don't have any great manufacturing pedigree/technology that we need.

So why let them in? Simple. Because it allows large corporations access to even cheaper labour and it works in 2 ways. Large companies can either relocate their bases to these countries in order to access the cheap labour markets. And they also they know that these cheap workers will go to the larger industrialised countries and compete with the legacy native workers on cost. Gradually the legacy native workers are replaced by people who do the same job but cheaper.

Or, and here's when it gets awesome for the bigboys-they can do both! Do you ever wonder why they say they will lose so much money if the UK leaves the EU? It's because their access to cheap labour coming into the UK! And why do they threaten us? Because if we leave the EU then they will leave the UK entirely and go to, guess where. Yup, the countries with the cheapest labour. Get it now?

You have to think big with all this stuff. All the petty cr*p on these comment pages is maddening because it's just a distraction from all the real structural reasons and issues which are never debated.

Oh yeah-one more reason to show why corporations and govt are complicit in this race to the bottom.

With QE going on everywhere, the money in your pocket is worth less. Which means that there is inflation everywhere. Govts massage inflation figures as much as they can to show inflation isn't 'too' bad. We all know it's rubbish and that real inflation is about 5-8% per year. That's how much purchasing power we lose each year. Fab.

And the main thing that stops this from going into hyper inflation? It's perverse, and it's wage inflation. If people see high inflation rates then they will want wage increases to keep up, and far more than they do already. After all, if inflation was 6% would you accept 1.5% wage increase? If wages go up across the board then inflation goes absolutely batsh*t as more money is created across the entire economy of millions of people, as opposed to the £300 billion which only flows towards the top of the money pyramid (guess who gets all that cheap money. Go on, guess!).

Soooooo importing cheap labour helps to stop wage inflation as legacy workers on their higher rates are replaced by cheaper workers who will accept less. Wages are depressed. And legacy workers who keep their jobs are dissuaded from asking for pay raises as they know that they can be replaced by cheaper foreign workers. Job done for all Western govts and large corporations-they both win. Seems to be all too common nowadays as opposed to the populations of their countries.