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09 Jun 13
12:31
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Date Joined:
04 Oct 06
Are there any articles on the above subject please or any other references I could look at.
Doing a project on to what effect Twitter / Facebook posts by Famous People would have on a price on Bet-fair.
Some Examples :- ( I know they prob wouldn't happen, but what if they did I'm after)
1) GOLF: Tiger leading going into last round and say Poulter tweets before he starts" Tiger holding his back on range this am, might struggle today "
2) BOXING: Before FROCH / KESSLER , groves who was sparring with KESSLER tweets " kessler looking awesome, sharp as ever seen him "
3) SNOOKER: Before a match, selby tweets , " Gutted for Jimmy, cue been lost in customs "
My main question is this - How quickly would the tweets/facebook posts spread and would a Domino effect take place where people just BLINDLY follow the money and info and therefore skew the amounts bet?
thankyou
Doing a project on to what effect Twitter / Facebook posts by Famous People would have on a price on Bet-fair.
Some Examples :- ( I know they prob wouldn't happen, but what if they did I'm after)
1) GOLF: Tiger leading going into last round and say Poulter tweets before he starts" Tiger holding his back on range this am, might struggle today "
2) BOXING: Before FROCH / KESSLER , groves who was sparring with KESSLER tweets " kessler looking awesome, sharp as ever seen him "
3) SNOOKER: Before a match, selby tweets , " Gutted for Jimmy, cue been lost in customs "
My main question is this - How quickly would the tweets/facebook posts spread and would a Domino effect take place where people just BLINDLY follow the money and info and therefore skew the amounts bet?
thankyou
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until words can be quantified, you're not going to get much proof of this. the closest to it would be negativity/positivity associates with players in a market.
then you're going to have to give some kind of quality score to the source of the info.
and measure that against any perceived price change and do it over thousands and thousands of high volume markets to sieve out coincidences.
have you read of any proof that there's an 'effect'? IMO it would be minimal. There were 'tipsters' before social networks but I'm guessing you're posing a question that doesn't really consider tipsters.
the closest thing I can think of that has a correlation to this idea is shares boiler rooms that were spamming particular companies to the extreme, hoping for an uptick of a couple of percent to dump shares.
in summary, I think it hugely depends on the source of the information which is really up to the discretion of the punter to act upon. more likely that prices are distorted by bots and the price movements themselves.
then you're going to have to give some kind of quality score to the source of the info.
and measure that against any perceived price change and do it over thousands and thousands of high volume markets to sieve out coincidences.
have you read of any proof that there's an 'effect'? IMO it would be minimal. There were 'tipsters' before social networks but I'm guessing you're posing a question that doesn't really consider tipsters.
the closest thing I can think of that has a correlation to this idea is shares boiler rooms that were spamming particular companies to the extreme, hoping for an uptick of a couple of percent to dump shares.
in summary, I think it hugely depends on the source of the information which is really up to the discretion of the punter to act upon. more likely that prices are distorted by bots and the price movements themselves.
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