Yesteryear yesteryear where art thou yesteryear

Hope you`re all well.

Andrew did very well, wish i`d layed them

Gone for Dal Harraild @40`s in the 3.35

Good luck gents

Hi Shane

Yep a very good read & profitable to boot.

Gone for

What's The Story - 7.40 Gal

Flowerhill Nova - 8.10 Gal

Best of luck guys

Also been following Outlaw Torn & Brotherton on board today at Beverley but it may have gone too soft there but put in a back to lay as it will probably lead regardless on this occasion.

I`ll watch the Galway pair pumphol, the best of luck.

Cheers Shane you too

Pump - should I post from tomorrow or Monday?

Hi Nick, lol I was looking for the thread as of yesterday it was on page 2.
I may post one tomorrow for Pumps but you can post tomorrow if you like if you see I haven't posted, no need to post every day I have all my free days still for both Pumphol & Panglima, I'll leave it up to you.

Thanks & best of luck.

Ok. I've seen you've put one up for Pumps.

Hope you have a good break.

Thanks Nick for standing in

Always a pleasure; never a chore.

Sorry I didn't fare better - I managed to stop at least two at odds-on.

I think it was Wednesday that I put up two horses, both of which were NRs. Lmlac settled them as "Invalid Selections". I presume this was because they were already NRs when I posted. (Other napsters had selected the same horses earlier and were settled as NRs).

Anyway, you didn't get a £ deducted but I think it may have been treated as a rest day. I didn't query it but interestingly, I selected one of the horses at the same time for myself in Div 3 and it was treated as a NR.

thanks Nick I wont query it got enough free days left if I want to use them.
Btter look for that big priced winner for Monday

Lmlac is probably correct. Otherwise you could potentially have unlimited rest days.

Btter look for that big priced winner for Monday

WD yesterday

Cheers Nick, its Panglima in trouble now

Nick, War Department

Thanks for that - I followed you on that one.

Would have been even better if I'd have put up your other selection.  A 59-1 double at SP. WD

Cheers Nick yep double was nice for sure, WD  was nibbled very early was hoping it would be a better price, not complaining though.

great stuff pump wish i had seen it , trust all is good in your world m8

Hi Dragon
All ok here, hope everything's alright with you, hopefully your cleaning up on the footie front

Great stuff this month Pump. WD

I should have followed you today - it did occur to me that it might be a strong fancy as you don't usually select on a Sunday.

Hi Nick, nice winner Tuesday, best of luck today

Only just seen your post from the 21st
Sorry about that

Thanks Pump.

GL today.

Hi Nick, just seen your selection was third, hard luck

Saw yours was third too. The winner was a lay selection by AIS.

Are you keeping an eye on the Prem results?

Sort of, don't want to temp fate though the second & third place players selections got beat, My horse slipped badly at the first bend at Fakenham & again on the next circuit, did well to place I think without that it would probably have won.

That's unlucky.

So even the person in fourth needs to find a winner longer than 16/1.

pretty much & in that division anyone not in top ten all look for a shortie

WD Pump. Is that your third PL win?

WD with your naps this week Pump.

Stat of the day

Sea The Stars' progeny on the AW:

Wins/Runs/%

86 387 22.2%

However, at Newcastle:

15 35 42.9%

Stat of the day

Backing all of Hugh Taylor's selections in October, November and December 2018 at 1pt level stakes (backing EW selections win only) would have won 4.1 pts at BSP.

1/1 for STS at Newcastle today. Only 8/15 though.

Hope you had a good holiday pumps, just about held my own with selections. As you saw, one was unbelievable how it managed to throw it away. Traded very very low, sub 1.1

Evening nick, hope you`re making a few bob.

Evening Shane.

I'm not betting atm. Just doing my homework.

I had a look at HT's selections out of curiosity. I don't like following other people's selections but will be doing some further analysis of his.

Hope all is well with you.

Good thanks nick.

Off to London for the weekend, hopefully weather stays good.

I`ve come across some lays shall we say, so far so good. 10 from 11 lost, winner was 3/1.

Also, working on a new lay system, partly there.

Hi guys

Thanks again Shane, have a good wekend.
Nick someone on another thread was saying HT had not had a winner this month !

I don't know Pump. I'll have a look when his selections for the month are on the ATR site at the end of the month.

Enjoy the weekend Shane. I think the forecast says dry and mild for the weekend.

...I was aware HT had a big reputation and a lot of followers.

I assume you can forget about getting on at the advised prices (although they occasionally hold up) so I was curious to know how he fares at BSP given the money that must be going on his selections.

Would love to know his sp profit compared to the profit from advertised prices

Oct-Dec 2018 is a 4.09 loss at ISP.

what was his advertised profit that period

Profit at advised prices: +55.50 pts

It's probably slightly lower because there were probably a couple of wins with NRs.

Also, it won't be the same as on the ATR site as he's done a few at 2ts win, some at 1pt ew an the occasional double.

I've just calculated all selections at 1pt win.

huge difference though

Shane - hope you had a good weekend.

WD with the lays. Just noticed them today.

Stat of the day:


Two-year-olds out of mares sired by Verglas have one just once from 81 attempts on the AW (GB only).

Compare with 2yo's on the turf:

35/217 (16.7%)

Blimey Nick !

What's running today to lay

Nothing today but a small W & P on Russian Realm in the 4.10 for me.

Last

Ok my turn to pick one

Argus  4.45

WD

But I've only just read your post.


Going back to Verglas, I wouldn't lay anything just on the basis of that stat. I've been looking at a lot of damsire stats recently and they can be all over the place.

Eg, if a damsire's runners improve from 2 to 3 on the turf, they often don't on the AW whereas sire stats do seem to do the same in both cases.

I suppose you'd kind of expect that though with the damsire being just one of four ancestors in a horse's 2nd generation pedigree.

sorry it was a late post

Another interesting damsire stat:

Kingmambo 2yo's over 5 - 5.5f: 1 winner from 51 runs (1 from 22 unique runners).

The winner's SP was 9/4. Average SP of all runners 11.3/1

Evening gents, hope you`re both well. Been working on a lay system over the last 3/4 months. Ready to go live with it next week. So bound to be loads of winners

post em on here Shane

The kiss of death awaits me, will do pumps

1.30 Printing Dollars
2.05 Dragon D`estruval
3.45 Annie Mc

All lays.

GL Shane.

I seem to recall you did well with your lays last month.

It got off to a great start nick. Along the lines of 25pts profit in just over 2 weeks, weakened after but still a point a day profit is the aim.

March 1st i go live with real funds on here.

I`ve had some great success in the past and some spectacular disasters. I`m hoping to avoid the extremes

Just got in so missed the first two I'll lay the last one

Shane

I`m currently working on an AW laying system, any input would be appreciated.

As a young man i would be out drinking and chasing girls, now i`m poring over the AW with a cup of tea....

On a Friday night i should say.

Stat of the day:


Two-year-olds by Casamento have won just once from 70 runs on the GB AW (1.4%).

3yo+ AW 27/261 (10.3%)
2yo turf 15/151 (9.9%)

Any qualifiers Nick ?

Two-year-olds, so definitely nothing for at least another few weeks.

I find systems interesting but don't necessarily like following them blindly.

For instance, if you had a system with four conditions which identified a horse which satisfied three criteria and marginally failed to qualify on the fourth, would you back it if it was 25-1?

At that  price almost certainly yes

I am facing a similar problem nick, where to draw the final line on price. Early results showed no shorter than 6/4, last month odds on showed a good profit.

Samburu Shojaa 3.40 Lay
Capeland 4.15 Lay
Kavanaghs Corner 4.50 Lay
Talk Is Cheap 3.35 Lay

One winner 5/4, my win nap came 2nd at 20/1 isp same race

WD Shane. HL with the nap.

Unlucky Shane, good work though.

7.30 Wolver

Having a small play on Laqab its 60 on the machine, only ran three days ago over an inadequate seven, this will suit better though being this weak in the market is probably not a great sign, wont take much to find out though.

HL Pump

BSP 115 but must have traded quite low i/r.

photo 4th, down to 6/1 in running, going great guns two out I thought  just for a mo it was going to get involved.

Horses out of mares sired by Mujadil have won 15 times from 42 runs (35.7%) on the AW at Newcastle. The average SP of the winners is 10.4 - 1.

Compared with 78 wins from 810 runs (9.6%) at the other GB AW tracks.

Interesting stuff nick. What was the av sp at the other tracks?

2.00 Ding Ding
2.40 Big Picture
2.20 Go Guarantor
4.25 Liosduin Bhearna
2.10 Choochoobugaloo
2.40 Coopers Square
3.45 Oh Land Abloom
7.25 Nice To Sea

All lays to BSP.

Course: Wins/Runs; Ave Win SP; Ave All Sp

Chelm: 1/38; 3.3 - 1; 22 - 1
Kemp: 19/263; 7.1 - 1; 18 - 1
Ling: 20/180; 8.3 - 1; 18.4 - 1
South: 16/90; 5.9 - 1; 16.7 - 1
Wolv Poly: 12/133; 5.8 - 1; 19 - 1
Wolv Tap: 10/106; 5.6 - 1; 21 - 1

Nice one nick.

Good luck Shane

In Ding Ding's race I have backed Kentford Mallard the 33's looks too big.

Oh my life, this is turning into the day from hell........... First my car broke down. Second my nap came second again today at 25/1, somehow i forgot to post it in the naps comp. That`s 3 20`s plus and 1 16`s and 1 12`s all second this month. Then the bleedin lays

I`m off for a pint of Guiness. Maybe stick to AW lays

5.30 Bay Of Naples
6.00 Martineo

Starting Bank £100

Aim, to take £10 per lay after commission.

One of those days Shane.

GL tomorrow.

A bad run for sure.

Balance £73.44

3.05 Purple Rock
7.00 Intrepidly
7.30 Singing The Blues

Good luck with any bets today.

Stat of the day:

John Bridger has never had a 2yo winner FTO, 2TO or 3TO. (Total of 91 runs, Turf & AW)

Blimey that's a lot of runs without success !

Andrew Balding's 2yo maidens 3TO have won 34 times from 152 runs (22.4%) and show a profit of £46.50 to a £1 level stake at SP.

I wouldn't suggest laying Bridger's 2yo's - the average SP is around 90-1 !

The AB stat is interesting though.

Stat of the day:

From 2yo's FTO, 2TO or 3TO, Ian Williams has had 1 winner from 99 runs. With runners in the top third of the market he is 0/22 (ave SP 4-1)

Stat of the day (slight correction):

From 2yo's FTO, 2TO or 3TO, Ian Williams has had 1 winner from 99 runs.

With all 2yo runners in the top third of the market he is 0/22 (ave SP 4-1)

Is Ryan now known on OLBG as Ryanman89?  Whoever it is, he had a good Cheltenham!

WD on the promotion, Pump.

Small win bet for me on Ascraeus, 2.25 Nottingham. I'm on at 13.

GL

Virginia Plane, 5:00 Leicester


Available at 16/1 wit various firms.

Best price now 9/1 with the books, 9.4 on here.

Still shortening.

Personally, I think the value has gone and wouldn't back it now.  A case can be made for a few in this race.  Interestingly, the 260k gns purchase Al Saariyah has drifted out to 14/1.