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:)
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If you had an accumulater in the bookies, 6 horses and five had won. you have an even money in the last to win £250,000.
I'm sure the bookie would be happy to offer you half the current value of your ticket to take your betting slip off you. |
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You mean there is £125k running on at evens and the bookie offers you £62.5k , hoss?
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Brodie 08 Dec 18:05
Angus ,if I walked up to you in the street and said here is £88k ,its yours, but then said bet it on a coint toss and you could get £250k? You would bet it? Honestly? That's what the game is all about - as a simple maths game and gambling proposition the correct course of action is invariably to open the box. The banker's offers become an irrelvance. Pyschologically, it's a different matter, and that's what has made the game a success. Another way to view it is, would you sell your car for half its value? Substitute the word 'box' for car and people do - regularly. The best course of action is to go on, and hum extremely loudly over all the offers, turn your back to the board and take the amount in your box. |
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Yep.
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If I could put it another way, when the banker makes hi final offer your box has an actual value, which is the mean average of the remaining two boxes. Add them both together then halve that number. If I went into my local high street bank with a business plan, which is to outbid the banker by 20% each time, after doing the figures my local bank manager would be falling over himself trying to lend me the money :)
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doesnt make sense to me to use value here, its a once off. Dont blame her for having a go, but in this situation its all pratical no theory
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Value is the only tool you have :D
Makes no sense not too use it |
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the cash amount offered to take away, means more to me than getting value on a coin flip, but each to their own :)
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There's a few on here who WOULD risk a £100 million offer on boxes of 1p and £1billion ,purely because of the odds.
Fair play to you, but don't come crying to me ! |
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I've decided I would take the £62.5 k hoss. I'd be loathe to be had over by a bookie as would any gambler ,but he's going to get lots of opportunities to lay under the odds and realise his edge.
I've gotta do what's good for me though ,so tyvm gimme the cash. If he offered me £40k erm.............. |
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This notion that becasue it's a one off then value plays no part is flawed. Going back to the coin toss motif, let's say you had to put up £500 on one toss but if you won you'd get back £20000. Or £10,000. Or £5000.
Surely you'd take it? That's all Deal or No Deal does but with generally larger amounts of money and often with people who have no clue. You know, the ones who prepared for the game by asking their friends to choose feckin' numbers - instead of learning basic odds like with 8 numbers left, what are the chances of taking out the 3 highest amounts? ie. the sort of stuff that might be vaguely useful. |
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You do agree that it was evens she'd win a penny and evens she'd win £250k?
You are saying that you would risk 100 million to win a billion because you are getting 9-1 about evens ? |
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I'm saying that the odds are irrelevant when we get to certain amounts.
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let's say you had to put up £500 on one toss but if you won you'd get back £20000. Or £10,000. Or £5000.
She is risking 88k on a single coin toss. I doubt most people have 88k in cash let alone prepared to risk it on one coin toss. She got caught up in the emotion of the game imo. |
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Lisa Simpson 08 Dec 18:55
- instead of learning basic odds like with 8 numbers left, what are the chances of taking out the 3 highest amounts? ie. the sort of stuff that might be vaguely useful. 55/1 to wipe out the top 3. And with just 5 numbers left people are still tempted to go on, even though they are down to 9/1 to knock out the top 3 again, but more importantly, they are 4/6 to knock out the biggest prize on the board. |
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Ha ha, I think we'll have to agree to disagree :)
As a somewhat successful gambler, my life is ruled by probabilities and odds. It's what determines wether I bet or not. I would always let it ride. If every contestant only opened the box at the end, the average return over a series would be way higher :) But back to my 1st line, I think we'll have to agree to disagree :) |
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Erm yes I knew what they were Charlie :-|
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The best value was the £88k prize for zero outlay. The woman never had to put her hand in her purse and ante up!
The crappy part is where the banker asked her to actually play with her own money ( the £88k at the end ). Confused ? I know I am :D ;) |
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Brodie, 1 thing I think we can agree on, she was very brave, and accepted her loss with great dignity.
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Or are you agreeing that the banker was a sh1t for only offering £88k for her box when it was worth £125,000.50p :D
Only joking ;) |
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OMG theres a gameshow where a million can be won on the toss of a coin ,just been advertised on ch5.
Oh lordy ,get me a calcualtor and aspirin please ;) |
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OMG theres a gameshow where a million can be won on the toss of a coin ,just been advertised on ch5.
If it was open auction to bid for right to play on the show, only very very rich gamblers would play. |
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Lisa Simpson 08 Dec 19:11
Erm yes I knew what they were Charlie Erm yes I realised that. But perhaps others didn't. |
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Perhaps they're on the right site then - let's not tell them any more.
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