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It's a potshot because the race looks very messy, Lossies price is really tight and she prefers further, TNL had a question about him at the trip before Saturday and that question has now gotten bigger and his temperament is now also a question as well as Anzadam's who looked like he tried to bite GA when he loomed up before chucking the towel in or blowing up if you want to be charitable. Sir Gino almost died a few months ago so how he is 4/1 is complete bonkers, and from then on it's anybody's guess, Golden Ace deserves more credit because ahe appears to be benefitting from others misfortune and that might underestimate her but it'll keep happening, you've got to try and find something at bigger odds in this race this year IMO.
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Yep I thought it was a smart move to have a small CH wager at 100 on Casheldale Lad post that race - younger and lots of scope , probably ideal distance at HQ etc .It never stopped drifting and hit 550 yesterday and no I didnt add to it .
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I think with Lulamba winning comprehensively over fences and no doubt will be aimed at the Champion Chase in 2027 Sir Gino would more likely be this way bound now, and less likely the Champion Chase.
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This year we are "hopefully" ging to really see the benefit of the Turners getting booted out, Kopek Des Bordes v Lulamba v Romeo Coolio....WOW.
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Lossiemouth weak on here for the champion hurdle right at this moment if you want to lay her you need to lay 1000 and that’s only for £3
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We should be a lot wiser about several festival races by January 1. With going on the soft side of good on most of the key courses, that should be similar to Cheltenham in March. Very different tracks though apart from Chepstow. My main hope is Golden Ace, both today and in the CH. She owes me nothing so very willing to keep backing her. She might be done for speed today but if she gives Sir Gino a fright she will still shorten for March.
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Odds-on surely now. And, Lossiemouth would be Mares Hurdle bound, little doubt.
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I was wrong. He's 2.84 here. A stonking price given his opposition, all things being equal.
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Any one else laid sir gino at 14s.
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Merry X'mas 'ronnie rails'. Not you, I hope.
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Impossible.
Yes sad to say though I was pinching 14 quid at 14s always been a big believer of they don't come back.Hope you are well.Ronnie. |
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Surely by a process of elimination when the music stops Ballyburn will finally find himself in the CH now.
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Now he has proven what was obvious, that he is not a stayer, it is surely the Champion Hurdle for him now.
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Enough Mullins horses running way below par and fading badly closing stages to suggest something badly amiss with some of the horses. Ballyburn, Fact to file, Majborough, Galopin, Jimmy Du Souil and co will either bounce at DRF.
Aintree hurdle maybe best target for Ballyburn. Has no chance wth Sir Geno, Lossiemouth and even Golden Ace. |
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Money back on Casheldale at 100 ,(vs 415 ),fingers xd for a decent run today .
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Hendo has finally stated Sir Gino is this race bound at Cheltenham or no Cheltenham. Just surprise it has taken him this long to state the obvious.
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What's the matter with Hendo? The man has confirmed an entry for Constitution Hill (CH). The man is clearly batting for the bookies or a complete lunatic.
If the same Constitution Hill (CH) who fell 3x or ballooned his hurdles and finished a distance Hendo will be a laughing stock of the entire racing community. Would JP have allowed it if he was the owner? Absolutely NOT! |
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Could Ballyburn turn up here considering he would have no chance in a stayers hurdle
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This is shaping up to be a dire renewal looking at the top six in the betting.
Sir Gino jumps like a chaser, not a hurdler. Loses speed at hurdles unless he meets them on a good stride, but has the class to make up the ground between hurdles. Thrown in the Champion Hurdle because his stablemate is a sandwich short of a picnic. The New Lion has never won a two mile hurdle race. Nearly ran out at Newcastle then threw himself at the second last and fell over. Lossiemouth considered not good enough to win it last year. Connections will think it’s a poorer renewal this year so it might run. Brighterdaysahead needs them after last year’s debacle. Constitution Hill. a sandwich short of a picnic. Could kill himself if Henderson runs him. Golden Ace wins when others fall over. 20/1 bar. |
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Have a decent amount to lay on two rags , may or may not get prices mind , but it certainly makes today's race interesting , Sir Gino been shortening all week for CH and his jumping athleticism , will probably rescue any errors , unlike his mate .
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Without Sir Gino the rest will not win a Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham as far back as my horseracing interest goes.
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somethings gotta win it ^^
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Golden Ace or El Fabiolo, I hope.
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Turned a Small profit on Wilful , to add to Casheldale's , only nominal interest now .
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The one time beast Constitution Hill is only 9/2 with a run. A testament for the distinct lack of quality for this year's renewal. What price to hit the deck again, assuming he runs?
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On the other hand impossible, what price would Constitution Hill be if guaranteed a clear round? 4/5.
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If putting in a clear round and jumping impeccably he'd be a shortie in-running. If ballooning the hurdles like he did at Punchestwon it'll be "any price will be accommodated" by layers.
I hope he runs, and not falls again. This year's renewal is so poor unless it is the impressive winner of the valuable handicap on saturday. The rest are so poor, period. |
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Surely worst Schweppes or Betfair hurdle ever. Decent winner against Plumpton handicappers. Celtic Dino, Wilful and Alexei would all do the same if running yesterday ?
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More likely that it was such dreadful ground yesterday, few horses go on it. The 2 m novice was also won by 27 l.
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Constitution Hill would be very interesting with a clear round and I'd favour him and being a romantic would hope he wins but the assumption about him being a shoe in on that basis of a mishap free round is a bit of a stretch, he's not going to be the same horse he was and the old cliche about only needing to be 85% is a misnomer IMO.
The only tangible piece of form you can judge him on is to consider whether his run in the Xmas hurdle of 2024 would be enough to win this years CH, in that race Lossiemouth ran similarly to the other day where she was taken off her feet somewhat early but saw her stamina kicking in late as Constitution Hill began to paddle a little, if you substitute her for a younger stayer like TNL running a similar style, it's no gimme and certainly not odds on IMO.....and there has been a lot more water of the negative variety under CH's bridge since then. |
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Unusally for me, I do have 2 ante post bets on the CH. One is Constitution Hill at 5.6 placed before the Fighting Fifth so he is now back to a similar price despite all that has happened since November. The other is Golden Ace (who has won me more money that any other horse in the last 2 years) at 16.5. I am tempted to have some more at 9 which is her present price. I really don't fancy The New Lion at all so that will probably win. Lossiemouth and Brighterdaysahead can win on their best effort but which one is going to be on song on March 10? Poniros is the elephant in the room.
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Alexei beat a 149 rated horse just over a length and the pundits say it’s not good enough form to win a champion hurdle. The New Lion beat a 138 rated horse just over a length and he’s favourite. Make sense of that.
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Most pundits are bookies stooges. Most cannot tell a horse from a donkey. Between them they could have most of the runners in a race yet miss the winner. And, they do not play with their own money.
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I might end up looking like a donkey but in a poor looking race I’d rather have a bit of fun at 26/1 than bet the favourite at 3/1 (current betfair odds). The more I look at the form of The New Lion, the more I think it looks vulnerable and a lay at the price. I think Brighterdaysahead will go off favourite, and I think it would be a worthy favourite, but I couldn’t back it after losing twice at the festival. So far it hasn’t shown its best form there. I think it could be a year for an improver with strong handicap form.
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I’ve gone EW NRNB on Alexei and Tutti Quanti. I prefer the latter as I was blown away with him in the paddock the other day. What an athlete! I assume he will run if it’s soft or worse though PN might be tempted by good to soft.
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The Constitution Hill saga has become a disturbing media circus. I don’t understand how he can be made favourite off the back of an all weather flat run. His Timeform rating was 106P which is approximately 151P over hurdles. Although he proved he’s fit and well that rating doesn’t prove he’s back to what he was. In any case it’s jumping that’s the problem and it seems his participation hangs on a schooling session. Presumably he was schooling alright before his previous debacles. It looks like Yogi Breisner is being set up as the fall guy. Henderson has been using Yogi for decades so what is he supposed to be able to do in the space of a few weeks that he wasn’t doing with CH over the last couple of years? I feel the pressure on CH to run will be too much for Henderson to resist. I don’t think it’s worth the risk.
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CH being fav is mere bookie talking. Unless it's nrnb do not touch it with a barge pole. I do not think he'll show up as a runner next month at Cheltenham.
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^
It’s supply and demand you complete imbecile. |
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Apparently, CH is 50/50 for this race. I think this is disgusting and disingenuous. If he runs here I'll not be watching; ego before safety and welfare for the horse. I'd probably lay him too on the day.
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CH out so for me it is Golden Ace versus Poniros now.
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