Cheltenham Festival
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the new lion state man constitution hill head the market and quite likely the winner could come from one of these 3 but the new lion may be better over further imoand short enough anyway ,state man would have won this years champion but with conshill falling it wouldn't have taken a lot of winning and I can pass . constitution hills jumping is a worry , I like the chance of irancy who hosed up at punches town beating Salvatore mondi in really good style with hot fav kopek de bordes well behind ,prob excuses for kopek but it was a nice performance from irancy and at 33/1 I have had a pop each way .
selection irancy 33/1 ew good luck opinions encouraged.
selection irancy 33/1 ew good luck opinions encouraged.
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as said kopek du bordes hasnt run his race for whatever reason (over the top?, a niggle ? ) ,irancy was some several lenghts behind the pair and karniquot in the supreme but has turned that form upside down at punchestown we can prob run a line through kopek du bordes punchers run he is obviously much better than that but possible irancy has improved a good bit from Cheltenham to punchestown .whatever 33s looks very fair imo.
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several lengths behind kopek and Salvatore mundi in the supreme ^^^
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state man out for the season
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Don’t think you’ll see Anzadam in Newcastle next week now. He’ll be rerouted to Morgiana I’d expect.
If he wins impressively poor old Lossie might be sent to Mares again…. |
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Just got matched in a quid ,Constitution Hill at 500 for the Arkle , probably because State Man came out of the Champion Hurdle . For me it makes no difference ,agree its jumping is the decider .
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I put up Kargese at 100/1 nrnb last year and given what transpired with Constitution Hill and Stateman on the day I’m sure she would have bolted up.
She won the County on the New Course and as a Juvenile was the best horse in the Triumph (just got outstayed) and gave Sir Gino a real fright at Aintree. The sharper Old Course will suit her much better so I’ve taken the 33/1. She is entered for the Fighting Fifth though I don’t think that track will be what she wants. |
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It's a shame State Man is off the agenda next year. I thought he was desperately unlucky not to win this year.
Could Sir Gino be rerouted here from the Champion Chase? I think he can win this race, and he shares the same owner as State Man. The Donnellys also own Lulamba; Hendo has Jonbon for the Champion Chase. |
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Anzadam is theirs. Won’t reroute anything if he looks good next race.
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I think a few others thought he was desperately unlucky not to win this year impossible.
Hopefully kargese stays over hurdles . |
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State Man was terribly unlucky to come a cropper at the last with the race at his mercy. I hope either a resurgent Constitution Hill or a new kid on the block emerges. I just cannot see The New Lion as a Champion 2-miler.
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Constitution Hill to gallop @ Newbury today. Hopefully he performs better than his last 2 racecourse gallops. Henderson very bullish. Needs to make the running in his races with a clear look @ his hurdles and not getting 1/2 lengthed.
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hendos very pleased with conshill says he is back to his best or words to that affect ! pulled well clear from 2 stablemates !
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When I look at the Champion Hurdle betting despite the inclination to not want to touch CH with a barge pole I keep coming back to him, at the prices there isn't anything else there, so it's 5/1 Henderson getting him back and with the FF actually looking like a race rather than a procession and him hosing up at a short price with Hendo all smiles but wth us not really any further forward, this actually looks like we will get a major question answered early on in the season.
I'd be inclined to back him for the CH beforehand and take a chance on him, if he beaths TNL he'll be favourite or very close to it and his well being or otherwise will shape where horses such as Lossiemouth end up. |
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You can divide Constitution Hill's career into 2 parts: In the first of these he seemed invincible, possibly the greatest, until a really poor racecourse gallop created doubts and, sure enough, he missed the Champion Hurdle. After wind surgery, he came back with a win in the Christmas Hurdle and Simon Rowlands on the ATR website wrote: He looked a lot like his old self (a phrase that people, including Hendo like to keep using in the face of decline):
Next time at Cheltenham, after a mistake at the last which could easily have resulted in a fall, he won at 1/12. (That, in combination with his problems from the previous season should have been a warning.) Then he did fall in the Champion Hurdle, when favourite. Next a fall at Aintree, when favourite again. Last time was at Punchestown and, after a mistake at the 2nd last, he dropped out tamely and was eased before the last. For me he is already a lay for the Champion Hurdle. |
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I think Constitution Hill will be sent off favourite for the Fighting Fifth as The New Lion has no 2 mile hurdle form whatsoever, never mind top class 2 mile form, unlike CH. If I’m right, his odds would contract from here for the champion, so I wouldn’t lay him at this stage, even though I can’t envisage him recapturing his best form. I hope he does.
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I'd not back Constitution Hill in the Fighting Fifth. I need proof that he's back to his very best. I do not see The New Lion as a major player here either. I've not been impressed with him.
However, I'd be more inclined to back Sir Gino at the big prices now given Anzadam still needs to prove himself, and turn up here; Anzadam needs to win the Fighting Fifth, period. Sir Gino will be on standby even if Constitution Hill or Anzadam just manages to win the Fighting Fifth. If neither obliges Sir Gino will be rerouted here, I firmly believe. |
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Understandable....playing devil's advocate I'd say that there seems to be a theory and I think the Ireland run backs this up that the falls have soured him rather than a physical issue or a waning in ability, if that is the case then it's worth one more crack in the hope that they can sweeten him up, racing him prominently might be the answer, it will be fascinating, hopefully both him and TNO turn up next week.
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Unless Constitution Hill recaptures his best form or Anzadam wins convincingly in the Fighting Fifth (both are big ifs) then his boots are difficult to fill here with State Man unavailable.
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Lossiemouth has a walk-in-the-park race at Punchestown. She's 7/2 (a crazy price) after winning this mickey-mouse Morgiana renewal. She was put in her place by Constitution Hill and State Man.
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When was she put in her place by State Man?
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Probably after she fell and Duffy is the new one back racing
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Ha Ha Bentring, no TNL of course, perhaps there was something in the back of my mind informing me that he will suffer the same fate as TNO often did where they end up continually trying to win a speed test with a stayer, not quite a freudian slip but along those lines.
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Constitution s galloping companion he pulled clear of in 2nd @ newbury has just won a good novice hurdle @ Newbury.
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Constitution Hill pulled clear of his galloping companion for the benefit of the paparazzi. The talk is mainly about his falls last year. He didn’t fall on Cheltenham’s trials day in January 2025 but looked like he’d lost his sparkle in finishing 3 lengths ahead of Brentford Hope. So when they say CH is back, he has to be back to the horse of 2023. I can’t see it. It’s fair to say it is a three horse race today. CH has two questions to answer. Can he deliver a clear round and does he have the speed he had two years ago. Anzadam looks like he’s there to test the water and doesn’t have the form so far to make his odds attractive. The New Lion has one question to answer - can he improve for a drop in trip? Odds of 2/1 give him a one in three chance in a three horse race. I think his chance is better than that so it’s a fair bet.
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Sir Gino to the fore now with Constitution Hill and Anzadam bombing out, surely.
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unclepuncle
06 Apr 25 07:56 Constitution Hill looks ready for retirement before he kills himself. Could Constitution Hill have an eyesight issue - no idea how they check a horses eyes but it’s like he can’t see properly. They have to retire him - imagine the optics if he falls and suffers a fatal injury at Kempton on Boxing Day.  The Champion Hurdle looks like Lossiemouth’s to lose but I hope Kargese runs in the Christmas Hurdle and at least has a chance to throw her hat in the ring. |
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Sir Gino is 14/1 with 'Starsports'. I might put a few quid on him tomorrow.
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Dont know about horses Uncle , but dogs have something called ETS ( Early take off syndrome ) and it is almost impossible to cure . They are unable to judge the correct take off distance and frequently land on the jump pole . Pole work and the like helps but only to a degree . It should be easy to spot in a horse , but not if they do set or related distance schooling all the time .
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imbecile123
I’ll lay you 1000 to 60 if you DM me. |
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It looked to me like Harry Skelton was having trouble keeping The New Lion straight. He nearly ran out to the left down the back straight and was veering left when he fell. Not ideal. As for Constitution Hill it’s really sad to see him reduced to that.
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impossible 123 seems to have the knack of rubbing some up the wrong way
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Very simple examination to test a horses eyesight. And I am 100% positive that would have been done if they had any concerns.
He has had this flaw all his racing life. It is just him. Shame, as the best talent we have seen for a while. |
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Totally confused after yesterday’s race.
Poor old Cons Hill will surely be retired from jumping. If anything happened to him if he went again Nicky would be enemy No1. I love the New Lion but he doesn’t look a 2 miler to me after that run. Maybe he needs to be held up to show his form ? He looked cooked when he fell yesterday. Fitness shouldn’t be an excuse as Dan said was as fit as he could get him. Anzadam looked the winner for 95% of the race. He travelled impressively maybe too well into the straight and then either wasn’t good enough or blew up after very long absence. I’ve not seen anything from Mullins but I thought he blew up ? The reaction to push out to 20/1 after the race surprised me especially when New Lion stayed around 4/1. Golden Ace did what she does and was obviously fit yesterday. Fair play but surely we can find something that will beat her in March. I can see Sir Gino being rerouted here now for three reasons. Henderson said he would reroute him to Champion last year if Cons didn’t perform at Xmas. He won’t have a realistic runner in CH and finally Champion Chase probably much harder to win against established G1 horses and he’s only had one run over fences. This looks easier with Lossiemouth only established rival. I would say he’s 70/30 to come here. I’m having small bet on Anzadam EW at 18/1 because he has nowhere else to go and might improve dramatically for the run. If he wins at Punchestown or Kempton over Xmas he could be 4/1 or 5/1 on day. |
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Well done impossible123 in spotting the value about Sir Gino. Hope you got on at 14/1!
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Only a smidgeon at 48, 46 and 23. I've already lay off the stake money. I hope he runs here. And, if he's recovered from his predicament of last season he'd be near fav, and have a great chance of lifting this trophy.
I do not rate Lossiemouth (beat Gala Marceau in The Triumph) or The New Lion, another non-2 miler, I reckon. |
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The market looks to be crying out for you to look further down the list, to that end, and I know there is a big enough question on whether he'd be quick enough but isn't it worth them trying Ballyburn in one of the 2 mile trials pre festival, what have they got to lose they can always step back up to the stayers but he might be able to cope with a strongly run CH in the hope of being able to outstay them.
There is only SG at the top of the market that we know is a real pace horse and he has a big question mark post injury, both Lossie and TNL are horses that appreciate further, the race is likely to be strongly run on this basis, I just thought the 25/1 looked a bit tempting. |
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Not sure why they need to contemplate Champion when he’s already favourite for Stayers. Don’t think I’ve ever seen 3 mile G1 chaser drop back to 2 miles hurdles following year ? 1st time for everything.
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Not sure why they need to contemplate Champion when he’s already favourite for Stayers. Don’t think I’ve ever seen 3 mile G1 chaser drop back to 2 miles hurdles following year ? 1st time for everything.
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I agree, Duffy.
He does not look a stayer to me. His 2m novice hurdle win at Leopardstown shows what he could do over the trip. Bang him out in front, catch me if you can. His best chance of victory at the festival in March. |