Cheltenham Festival
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Been bit slower starting my portfolio this year. Had 100+ antepost bets by this time last year. I’ve been backing a few more obvious ones which still have bit of juice in the price.
Had few small bets on Lulumba for Arkle at 10/1 and then few more at 6/1. Don’t think he’ll run till Kempton novice and then couple of penalty kicks. If he went to Cheltenham unbeaten he’ll be 2/1 or less I’d expect. If Cons Hill blows out then could be rerouted so not gone too mad.
Ballyburn is confirmed to go hurdling as I hoped so my 8/1 Stayers hurdle is pretty good bet if he can just show his form from 2024. This is a shocking renewal at the moment and he could be my best antepost at the moment.
Thirdly Majborough in Champion Chase is a very interesting one. He’s obviously throws in some terrible jumps but has a formidable engine. If he matures and improves with more experience he’s tailormade for Champion Chase as he’s strong stayer who could also be aimed at Ryanair…I personally can’t see why switch races with Fact to file ? JP could end with neither winning if he does that. I can see both running in Champion Chase if he’s so desperate to win it. 8/1 Majborough is a good bet.
Only Gold Cup bet I’m considering is Haiti Couleurs at 25/1. Sean Bowen and heavy ground on the day he could any price 10/1 lower…no chance on form but out and out stayers have very good records in the race recently.
Any thoughts before we start Friday at the home of jump racing ?
Had few small bets on Lulumba for Arkle at 10/1 and then few more at 6/1. Don’t think he’ll run till Kempton novice and then couple of penalty kicks. If he went to Cheltenham unbeaten he’ll be 2/1 or less I’d expect. If Cons Hill blows out then could be rerouted so not gone too mad.
Ballyburn is confirmed to go hurdling as I hoped so my 8/1 Stayers hurdle is pretty good bet if he can just show his form from 2024. This is a shocking renewal at the moment and he could be my best antepost at the moment.
Thirdly Majborough in Champion Chase is a very interesting one. He’s obviously throws in some terrible jumps but has a formidable engine. If he matures and improves with more experience he’s tailormade for Champion Chase as he’s strong stayer who could also be aimed at Ryanair…I personally can’t see why switch races with Fact to file ? JP could end with neither winning if he does that. I can see both running in Champion Chase if he’s so desperate to win it. 8/1 Majborough is a good bet.
Only Gold Cup bet I’m considering is Haiti Couleurs at 25/1. Sean Bowen and heavy ground on the day he could any price 10/1 lower…no chance on form but out and out stayers have very good records in the race recently.
Any thoughts before we start Friday at the home of jump racing ?
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Davy Crockett, Love me Tender ......more on or checking out after Christmas
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Do you think muvh value exists in ante post these days ? I used to make a killing but not for many a year
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I agree it’s much harder to find value than it was previously. However, there are opportunities out there in the markets. Ballyburn was overpriced at 8/1 and now 9/2 shot. I concentrate on the championship races and look for an angle or weak field.
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The speed Ballyburn showed in his P2P at Temple doesn't bode well for a stayers hurdle
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Just looked at the markets and was struck by how few horses are priced up at less than 4/1. The novice hurdles are all at double figure odds. I sometimes lay the shorties at this time of year but Final Demand is the only one I would call short at 3.5 (3.9 to lay) for the Brown Advisory.
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I've put up a thread on the app forum gotta be approved by the mods for some reason ,anyway I like leccy Watson at 33s ante post for the chelt gold cup .a good winner of the brown advisory and progressive stepping out of novice company is often difficult but lightly raced and scope for a good bit more just the 5 runs over fences 33s looks fair imo.
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Lecky is one I’ve never taken to. We will see how things pan out over next couple of months.
I was quite impressed with Romeo Coolio jumping a couple of flights last Friday. Took a bit of the 16/1 after the race. Don’t mind having two bullets in same race if odds are in my favour. Interesting where he goes next. |
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good luck hibore ,yeah as said i put up a thread but it got lost and never showed up ,i alluded to the fact that leccy watson might be one of those horses that goes under the radar for some reason, decent form and usually a good jumper rated 159 so has a bit to find but should progress .just the 4 runs over fences 3 wins and a fall at punchestown so has room for improvement .
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brown advisory ,final demand the fav and looked a monster last season not btn far behind the new lion at the festival and impressive at punchers in may more to come and may be even better over fences ,a deserved fav but short enough imo. but the same can be said about a few others and its probably wise to stay with Willie Mullins in these events loads with potential and I like jimmy du seuil who was a taking winner of the coral cup on seasonal debut off a 10 month break, very lightly raced has big field exp and can go well fresh ,we don't know how he will take to fences but with the right outfit and 20/1 ew looks fair imo.
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Ballyburn and Romeo both did my antepost the power of good today. Romeo looks a class chaser and will put up to my other fancy Lulamba and KDB. letting the 16/1 roll on him.
Ballyburn did what I hoped he would do and get his career back moving forward with a very eye catching trial for the stayers. 5/2 looks short enough but allows me to cash out my stakes and free roll a nice 5/1. Just need Majborough to run encouraging in comeback race and should go into 2026 with pretty good book. |
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well done hibore , I've not been so busy in the national hunt ante post markets this season and have had one or 2 setbacks/non runners already but they are mostly from money won and expected anyway so no problem . I agree anzadam looks the one to take out of the fighting fith and I thought he looked as though may have just needed the race after a break .
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I’ve added Supreme Hurdle, Act of Innocence at 25/1. Thought he was very impressive and far superior to Skelton’s Sinatra. He’s with the right stable and if progressing in his next stiffer assignment could easily be one of the best British chances.
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Nice to finally see Maj do what we all knew he was capable of. Just need Lulamba to get through Newbury in one piece and should have two nice antepost selections running in March.
Not sure what is going on with Ballyburn and if he’s going stayers or champion. Still think he’s a player if he wakes up on right side of the bed. |
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Not sure I’ve had a better group of antepost selections going into a festival. Selected 4-5 horses in October and all bar one are right in the mix. Majborough is my captain with 40 odd bets between 6/1 and 8/1. I’m hoping he will scare off the opposition and leave 5-6 runner race.
Lulamba is vice with 10 bets from 10/1 - 6/1. Still bit raw but plenty of ability. Newbury makes him 160+ horse which puts him in with big shout and better ground will help with his jumping. The further he goes the better he looks. Haiti Coleours is in the book between 66/1 and 25/1. Can’t see him winning but is one of those horses that if still in front turning into the straight just keeps going. I’ve not got involved with the Gold cup as still impossible to work out who is going where. Ballyburn is laid off stakes so no harm as I posted a while ago. 5/1 free bet if he runs here. Think there might be turn up here. Other horses I’ve added after watching Upping the Ante are Bambino fever, Jericho du Reponet and Narciso Has. All looking ok at this stage. No surprises I’ve backed Brighterdaysahead for champion hurdle at 25/1, 20/1 and 16/1 just in case following my 100 plus bets on her last year. I’m still very deflated after her run last year and am going in this year with minimal expectations. Does she just hate Cheltenham. Ryanair looks massive opportunity for Gaelic Warrior if they go here. Hit deposit limit withWilliam hill 3/1 NRNB following Irish Gold Cup….was totally wrong price and he’ll surely be no bigger than 6/4 if he goes here (ftf in gold cup). I’ve backed some handicaps NRNB now. Munsif is interesting one in juvenile. There is a Henderson novice who I think is over twice the price it should be NRNB. Won’t put up yet as think will be main focus over next few weeks. Good luck with your anteposts and comments welcome. Nearly there  |
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good luck hibore have backed a few duds myself but a few are expected and no significant loss so far as they were big prices so no need to go in too heavy at an early stage . have been nibbling nick rocket at 140 down to 100/1 on here .rated 169 a grand national winner carried 11-8 beating a previous grand national winner not a lot to find on ratings an improving horse 8 wins from 14 runs trip no problem will line up the freshest horse this may be a prep for another pop at aintree but some question marks about a fair few ahead of him in the market and he should be galloping on up the hill when a few others have cried enough .
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for the gold cup^^^^
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Fantasy World...Triumph??
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Could be anything. Is the Plumpton race that Pentland Hills won still to come ?
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An astute portfolio 'Hibore'. I hope at least a couple hit the jackpot for you. Mine cannot be any more different. Even the 2 "best" selections eg Gaelic Warrior and Fact To File could switcheroo and render my anteposts worthless.
This Festival could turn out to be a watching brief for me. |
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Just looked and Pentand Hills won on Feb 25th
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I think after the monumental effort by Jonbon to beat Pic 'D'orhy at Ascot yesterday JP and his advisors would be more likely to stick with Fact To File for The Ryanair for obvious reasons. I think Jonbon could bypass Cheltenham altogether and wait for Aintree instead.
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Obvious reasons JPs going to give up the chance of a gold cup for a Ryanair?
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Been concentrating on NRNB Graded races last week or so. Always look to see if the old guard is vulnerable to youngsters coming through and try to imagine what the market might look in 12 months. One race that fits the criteria is the Mares Chase.
Dinoblue is definitely no back number and is a worthy fav but her level, even best runs are not unattainable by many in the field. Spindleberry looked in trouble very early in the Irish Gold Cup. Maybe the ground was too soft ? Whatever the reason it’s not an ideal prep and you would be backing her in hope rather than confidence. Panic Attack is a horse I’ve had few bets at big prices for this. 6/1 or 7/1 isn’t much value now and she falls into the Haiti Coleurs mould of you could see them win but your head says no. The one I’ve gone for at 10/1 is July Flower. I can’t see her running in Arkle and this looks her race for the next few years. Course winner over Arkle trip beating BeAware in Nov she proves she acts on the track. 143 hurdler who beat Kala Conti in grade 3 over this trip over hurdles…not too much improvement to be 155+ chasing going up extra 1/2 mile. All my bets are on NRNB in case she waits for Punchestown. Trainer form bit of a concern. 10/1 NRNB still good value as maybe only 6-8 runners and she’s be 5/1 if turning up in my book. Anyone thoughts on this market |
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Had a few bets on the handicaps now.
Ultima - Johnnywho 14/1 NRNB Would have won last years Kim Muir if O’Connor hadn’t thought he was home and hosed before being mugged over the last. Has a 6lb rise to contend with but has shown pretty good form this season and has one of these races in him. Not greatest fan of Jonjo Jnr so hope might be second string with Woods riding perhaps ? Jack Richards - Ballybawn Belter 33/1 and 40/1 Typical JP horse that had a quiet ride at Leopardstown. People are concentrating on the horses that were involved in the finish but perhaps further back is where you should be looking. Should get in here off 130 handicap unless handicapper raises him just because of the green and gold colours. |
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Califet en vol was my Henderson horse for Jack Richard’s. Bolted in at Kempton today so NRNB but nice payout today.
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always interested in entries for handicaps. Do multiple entries suggest that a horse is really fancied or one that is not really good enough for any. Does a single entry suggest a "job" or an owner "day out"? I just have a feeling for Paul Nicholls in the Fred Winter. Four entries. Ignore latest runs and both Minella Yoga and Pourquoi pas papa are interesting.
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Gaelic Warrior going to win the Gold Cup. Got plenty of 12-14 on here.
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Gaelic Warrior has to run 1st. I'm sweet on him too after persistent blowouts on other anteposts.
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Well if Rich Ricci campaigns Gaelic like Lossie then hes going for the easy option of the Ryanair.
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Quite. Townend is available to ride GW in the Ryanair (and appears to have nothing else), but he's not available to ride in the Gold Cup. And GW's connections hardly need to run scared of FTF, he's beaten him twice already this season.
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The markets strongly suggest the FTF going to Ryanair and GW going to Gold Cup. I would be strongly against FTF staying the longer trip so think this makes sense.
Ricci wants to desperately win Gold Cup and overruled Willie a couple of years back with Monkfish running here over stayers hurdle. Lossiemouth will be bit more 50/50. Hopefully hear first hand where she’s going next Tuesday at Sun preview night. Told us where GW was going before media couple of years ago and grabbed 8/1 for Arkle  |
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Also told everyone Vautor was going Gold Cup, so not always reliable
 I'd like to see GW in the Gold Cup, though it would leave the Ryanair a very weak renewal. |
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Patrick Mullins also pushing for GW to run in GC. Obviously he wants to ride.
Willie does listen to his opinion which added to Ricci wanting GC glory he will go to Friday. Well I hope |
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Willie also said that GW ran a perfect trial for the Ryanair at Leopardstown, so it sounds like he will need to be persuaded. The betting is leaning as you say Hibore, but more clearly for FTF.
One point I was trying to make is there seems to be a common assumption that GW and FTF will automatically run in different races. But that's not necessarily the case - both Mullins and Townend might prefer GW to run in the Ryanair, wherever JP decides to send FTF. |
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I think JP will send FTF to The Ryanair. JP's not totally convinced the horse will stay the Gold Cup distance at Cheltenham despite his triumph at Leopardstown. The Ryanair is also an easier race to win, I think.
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Am all over Firefox for the Ryanair , mid 30s on here plus some NRNB .Loved his pace when ridden with restraint at Leopardstown and can be ridden more aggressively in this . Has a largely progressive profile with decent course form (last year his worst )and may improve .
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A lot was made of FTF in Ireland but GW was remarkable, he was way too keen through the race and to be able to stick on as well as he did was a tremendous performance, a wise man once told me on here that GW was a 3 miler and everyone at the stable knew it and they were right, he'll stay the trip alright...BUT only if he settles and thats the big question, if it is a strongly run race and he can settle he'd be a major player.
Don't know where FTF will end up but the market on here strongly suggests at least that GW is GC bound. |
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Keep an eye on GW in Gold Cup Betfair about 8.30pm 3rd March. Should know then during Sun preview night
The horse in the graded races that I still think is unbelievable value is July Flower. Some bookies have trimmed to 8/1 NRNB but 10/1 widely available. She is at lest 8lb better hurdler than anything in here unless I’m mistaken. Especially over 2.5 miles where she easily beat Kala Conti in grade 3 hurdle at Leopardstown. 3 chases with 2 wins including 2 mile Arkle trial beating Be Aware who ran 2nd to Lulamba few weeks later. Last time traded fav 2 out behind Romeo Coolio until finish 3rd….De Bromheads were under a cloud there. Whether this year is too soon experience wise we will see but 20/1 -10/1 EW is only horse I’m still backing. Still very happy with my list but 2 weeks is a long time in antepost betting  |
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FTF into 2.16 for the Ryanair. GW into joint fav for the Gold Cup. Decisions made?
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