bravemansgame is a big price ,think nicholls may have overdone him too early this season 3 runs in a short space of time but not disgraced by any means ,had a good break now and should be fresher in march ,not that much to find  and while the winner won comfortably it could be a bit closer this time and around 20/1 ew  looks fair .

On Saturday it looked to me that Protektorat over raced in front and did too much.

Shishkin jumped the last 2 seconds in front of Protektorat and was still just 2 seconds in front at the line.

Not sure that that was top level form myself.

Plus, as you say Stront, the proximity of Hitman does not boost the form either.

Anyone dismissing Shishkin after Saturday’s race is fooling themselves. He wouldn’t have liked the ground that much and will come on for racing on better ground. Stays all day and has a touch of class. GDC backers will be very worried if he’s on the premises with 3 fences to go. 9/1 is a very acceptable price and will be nearer 5/1 or shorter on the day.

Shishkin has plenty of form on soft ground, so I don't agree that he would not have enjoyed the soft ground at Newbury on Saturday.

Imp, he hasn't played up since being withdrawn.

Just watching Upping the Ante this week and totally agree with Johnny Dineen about Shishkin in questions from tne crowd.

The ground was soft at Newbury not heavy.
That is why I said he has plenty of form on Soft.
His run against Energumene for example.

I had a few pennies on Mahler Mission after the Hennessy. That's gone
Backed Corach Rambler ew
A double with Lossiemouth and GDC after he was beat in the Durkan
And an ew double with Shishkin and Slade Steal.

But Saturdays run didn't encourage me much.

Depends if you think Shishkin would beat Fastanslow, Bravemansgame, Conflated, Gerri Colombe, Stattler and Fury Road.

I would say yes given a clearish round. Therefore he is a better level of opponent that GDC has to beat in March. GDC has proven it last year and is mostly likely winner. But who knows…Shishkin might be more talented and even stronger stayer.

Or maybe Gerri does for my bet

Santini ran Al Boum Photo (2x winner) to a neck; Santini lacked tactical pace. Is Shishkin better than Santini? I believe so. Is Al Boum Photo as good or better than Galopin Des Champs?

If Shishkin is sweet on the day I think he'll win; Shishkin won The Supreme despite meeting obstacles in running. At 9/1 nenb is tremendous value.

I wouldn't even say the ground at Newbury at the weekend was soft let alone heavy. Good/soft at worst on the chase course

A throwaway stat for you - no horse aged in double figures has won the race for 25 years.

Any argument for Shiskin must be based on the hope that GDC will underperform. So whether Shiskin is value depends on the odds of that happening and the odds of Shiskin being the best of the rest on the day. I would say, therefore, 9/1 Shishkin is not great value. Still, it's far better value than Geri Colombe at the same price

Why is Shishkin not good value at 9/1? He's the unexposed horse, and never run/beaten by GDS as compared to Fastorslow at 5/1. I think one can safely deduce Fastorslow beat GDS when the latter had a tough race at Cheltenham last season; the latter was under-cooked 1st time out this season, and distance too short too.

I think 5/1 without GDS and nrnb is a price that must not be overlooked as it offers tremendous value.

'strontium', why is Shishkin exposed? He was a 5 yr old when he fell on his 1st hurdle run in Dec 2019; won The Supreme at 6 in 2020. He then went chasing 2m from Nov 2020 till Dec 2022 over 2m; The Ryanair in 2023, and unseated rider at the last in the King George the same year. But, Shishkin has never been beaten when jumping the last in unison or infront.

I think Shishkin has all the credentials for winning the Gold Cup next month. I also think he's unlikely to be passed if jumping the last in unison or infront of anything at Cheltenham next month. And, 5/1 without GDC and nrnb is stonking value; 9/1 nrnb winning outright is value too. The rest including Fastorslow (greatest claim to fame was beating GDC and BMG post these two horses exertion at Cheltenham, and inadequate trip; Gerri's is running very well in the RSA; the rest except Hewick (ground dependent) are exposed and inconsistent.

What price would Shishkin be if he had won the King George and not unseated rider? Which would you rather have, State Man (against CH) or Shishkin (against GDC)?

Shishkin may have had 20 races over fences, but only 3 over 3m; winning one, unseated in one, and refused to start the other. If he's sweet on the day Shishkin is the least exposed to me.

Given that choice, I'd rather have Shishkin than State Man, FWIW.

The worst price bar none is GDC when you dig down down a bit deeper . Anyone thinking evens or 4/5 is a fair price I would question.
Beaten twice at Punchestown at 4/11 and 1/2 demonstrates he’s not bomb proof. He got back on track beating Gerri and Capodanno impressively in a very steadily run race at Leopardstown, and then followed up in a similarly run race beating 170 rated Fastorslow by 4.5 lengths.

Fastorslow is the interesting horse. Well beaten by GDC in 2022 he ran very well in Cheltenham handicap off 150 finishing second to Corach Rambler (146). He then suddenly improved between 15-25lbs in his next 3 races all against 180 rated GDC. Hang over from Cheltenham is a fair excuse and shorter distance in John Durkan. But the facts are now Fastorslow is now 20lbs higher (23lbs on Irish rating)than when running against Corach Rambler at Cheltenham. His rating is purely on the back of running against GDC and Bravemansgame (no wins in 5). Horses do improve rapidly and this is obviously not impossible but until he confirms his mark outside of running against GDC I’m a bit sceptical how true the ratings are.

Your post makes perfect sense if Fastorslow is the second best 3mile Chaser. If the ratings are true then GDC would probably win comfortably.
If he’s not then that opens the door to 5 or 6 horses who have similar profiles.

Let’s hope it’s a cracking race with no hard luck stories.

On RPR Shishkin (182) is rated 2nd best to GDC (188). I do agree on a going day eg fair weather/calm and no long delay in proceeding/start I'll like him a lot on past glories at Cheltehnam; GDC at 'even's is only a banker with the Irish racegoer contingent.

Hopefully everyone shows up as planned on the day.

Agree entirely with the question surrounding the Fastorslow rating, the ratings say they "believe" his defeats of GDC but by the same token we are being asked to believe  there were valid excuses for GDC's defeats, both these things can't be true at the same time IMO.

I personally don't believe Fastorslow's ratings and also don't believe (on what we've seen) that GDC is quite the same horse that won last years GC, but he might be on the day and is a very strong stayer. His defeat of FOS last time wouldn't have seen GDC in his best light as it was steadily run and he really wants a test, FOS out jumped him but still couldn't get passed.

The whole Shishkin issue for me depends on whether he is lazy or not, if he does not travel he has no chance, if I thought he would be smooth and jumped well I'd make him the clear 2nd favourite and would chance him because, despite all his runs, he is unexposed over the extended trip and he too looks like a strong stayer at the trip, but I believe the whole event will work against him and he will not consent to put his best foot forward and he will fail, after the KG run I was with him but the other day put me write off him.

I think I will be looking for something longer on the day but don't know what.

I hope he does too because what a race it would be with Bravemansgame snapping at both their heels.  And one or two others.  I think we are in for a special race.

So true Strontium.
Sadly it will have been nrnb so he won’t have lost his fiver.