Galopin De Champ 2024 Gold Cup - 5/2 available!!

Did you back A Plus Tard after his win in 2022? Much easier win than Galopin but form since is PP.

I watched the Gold Cup again yesterday. I think GDC is a monster. Made lots of little jumping errors. Made a bad error three out, and didn't break stride. Still hammered them.

The form of the race looks rock solid (coming round the home turn, 170-rated Hewick was with the Betfair (Lancashire) chase winner, the Irish Gold Cup winner, the Savills Chase winner, and the King George winner) - that is, the winners of the four principal staying chases run before the Gold Cup were the remaining contenders two out. GDC put 6 lengths into the King George winner after the last. His best jumps were probably the last two. The way he finished his race and powered through the line was extraordinary.

Sage - I take on what you say. Gold Cup winners often look great but can't repeat it. But this one looks special to my eye. I reckon he could run 10 lbs below his form this year and still likely win next year. Yet he could easily improve if his jumping can be sharpened up. I think he's the most exciting chaser since Kauto Star, and he has a lot of the same attributes (athleticism, blend of speed and stamina). I also don't see any likely stars among the staying novices. I very much hope Mullins can keep him sound.

As for A Plus Tard - he was perhaps unlucky to be pulled up in the Gold Cup. Blackmore was tracking GDC on his inner (a couple of lengths behind). APT got badly caught in the melee when Ahoy Senor brought down Sounds Russian and lost about 10 lengths on GDC. He had no chance after that, and Blackmore chose to look after him, so I think it's hard to count the "P" as a negative (though I don't think he'd have beaten GDC) It's also a reminder how luck is needed in jump racing - one more horsewidth out, and it's GDC who gets badly hampered by Sounds Russian, and APT skips on by.

Luck is needed Stron.

A great example is Constitution Hill in last seasons Supreme.

7/4 now

2-1

still 2/1 in places  hillies go 6/4

9/4 on exchanges

It's bubbling up nicely. Geri Coulmobe looked very smart beating those high-quality, race-fit horses. He'll be charging up the hill come March.

Gerri did well to win. $64k what did he beat? I understand this was his 1st race of the season. Will be beat Bravemansgame?

I think GC will want an out and out stamina test. Will be outpaced coming down the hill/round the home turn, but may well be staying on best.

As for what he beat today, the Ryanair winner and the Savills Chase winner (though who knows in what sort of form).

It looked an incredible performance from before the last and to utter BMG who got beaten by a horse having it's 3rd chase run when this has beaten a Ryanair winner savilles winner and former GC winner enough said.
It doesn't mean it wins GC but ffs give credit when it's due,if you want to carry on knocking Irish horses IMPOSSIBLE that's fine by me but I hope it's jesting as I would hope you will include some of these when placing you're bets in races that they look to have the upper hand we're all punters at the end of the day

I agree Gerri would be outpaced coming down the hill when the pace has tended to quicken in the Gold Cup; Gerri ran a good race beating Envoi Allen (a non-staying 3m Gp 1 racer), and a regressing Minella Indo. I think a different proposition against Galopin Des Champs and Bravemansgame.

Can Gerri do what Santini could not? I think his in-running price will be more than 5/1 antepost.

still best priced at 9/4 on exchanges . most bookies offering best priced 2/1

I think he'll be much shorter if winning the John Durkan even if Gerri Colombe is not present; it would show he's not regressed.

I was very impressed with Gerri at Down Royal. There are not many horses I’ve seen recently that would have picked up that well after the last. He obviously got a huge engine and the long straight in the Gold Cup is playing to his strengths.

Not many wins from the last 3 years Gold Cup winners if you look back. The race can leave a huge mark. 5/1 Gerri is better value than Galopin 5/2 until we see him run.

The fences get in the way a bit with Gerri, he doesn't gain ground at them, he's not the quickest over them and has to be ridden away from them a bit, it's not bad but coupled with him getting a little tapped for toe, it all adds up.

With horses like him that come home so strongly the inclination a lot of the time is just to imagine that finishing kick solving all and to disregard the toll on the horse of the likelihood that he will be getting worked on earlier than others.

Just gone back to the 2023 Gold Cup result. Royal Pagaille the only runner there to win a good race since. Galopin was second in his only run and goes tomorrow, Bravemansgame has been beaten 3 times, Conflated PU, 5th of 5 and 3rd of 4, Noble Yates 4th in the GN and seventh in France, Protektorat last of 4 today, Eldorado Allen 5.4.3 so about par, Hewick won a moderate race at Sandown and then 2 moderate runs since, Minella Indo has won but rated 20lb below his best. Not saying it was a poor Gold Cup but it certainly raises questions about the effect it has had on the field since.

3/1 now!!

i missed yesterdays race how did it run

Didn't jump or travel well at all.

Apart from that, he was great.

Jumped poorly, jockey said he felt very flat the whole way and trainer was very disappointed yet he was still beaten less than two lengths so God help the opposition if he can get his mojo back.

Hopefully Willie gets a fresh supply of magic carrots for Christmas.

ok thanks  might go back in at 3/1

Despite what appeared to be a good King George win, Bravemansgame's form does not really stand up as Gold Cup class yet he still looked the winner at the second last in March until GDC kicked in his stamina turbo and beat him fairly easily. I know there is not much to put up against last years first 2 but we said that when Al Boum Photo lined up after his runaway Gold Cup win. Stage Star may not run in the KG or the Gold Cup but I reckon his PP win was the best chasing performance of the autumn. I doubt if he would get the Gold Cup trip but I think he would win the King George if at his best.

That's a really interesting thought Sageform. Nicholls loves the KG, and wouldn't pass up a chance to win it. But if Stage Star were to win the KG, they'd be almost obliged to go for the Gold Cup, which he has far less chance of winning than the Ryanair. For me, the KG is all about Allaho - if he's anywhere near his best, it's his for the taking. But is he?

thinking back, Nicholls did say that SS preferred to go left handed which might rule out Kempton and Aintree. Takes him back to the Ryanair.

Looked pretty good today

Satisfied with my position now.

me too

best price 11/8

very happy with this ante post bet

now 8/11 which is too short for me to place any more bets.

THE REAL WHACKER will finish 2nd in the Gold Cup.

What are you basing that on, Saxon?

looks like its cut and dried for the fav but as we know its seldom that simple ,on ratings he should win but too short for me ,he takes a huge chunk out of the market and therefore big prices on some others , on good ground hewick cannot be ignored and gentlemansgame is unexposed and should arrive fresh with just a few chase runs nrnb takes the risk out of it and you have the ew option of 3 places.

Several people are posting here like the horse already has the cup in its saddlebag, but it's odds-against on here. Why haven't you mopped up all that value?

Shishkin is 5/1 without GDC (nrnb) or 9/1 nrnb.

correct strontium , anything can happen !

I'm on GDC ( the danger is Shark's coming from behind not trying to lead the way ),  as well as a few outsiders like Nichols BMG and Gordons Conflated  (500s on here was too big) .
They are horses that have proved themselves Grade 1 material , some of the others have glaring weaknesses that I seriously doubt they will take part.....

bravemansgame is a big price ,think nicholls may have overdone him too early this season 3 runs in a short space of time but not disgraced by any means ,had a good break now and should be fresher in march ,not that much to find  and while the winner won comfortably it could be a bit closer this time and around 20/1 ew  looks fair .

I don't think Shiskin did much for the King George form on Saturday frankly. The pundits were wetting themselves about his run at Newbury, but he's beaten Hitman by 4 lengths giving him 6 lb. Would anyone expect Hitman to finish in the same parish as GDC?

I agree BMG was too big when he'd drifted out to 33/1. As you say Foyles, 20/1 seems about right. But that's based on what he did in the gold cup last year, rather than anything he's done this year. Nicholls will doubtless have him as ready as he can on the big day, but they do seem to have botched his season by running at Haydock.

On Saturday it looked to me that Protektorat over raced in front and did too much.

Shishkin jumped the last 2 seconds in front of Protektorat and was still just 2 seconds in front at the line.

Not sure that that was top level form myself.

Plus, as you say Stront, the proximity of Hitman does not boost the form either.

GDS is drifting in the markey ..why i dontknow

canget 5/4 im back in as a player at that price

Anyone dismissing Shishkin after Saturday’s race is fooling themselves. He wouldn’t have liked the ground that much and will come on for racing on better ground. Stays all day and has a touch of class. GDC backers will be very worried if he’s on the premises with 3 fences to go. 9/1 is a very acceptable price and will be nearer 5/1 or shorter on the day.

I've backed Shishkin at 18/1 (epic boost) nrnb with 'billie'; max is £5. Then more with the same firm at 11/1 nrnb. Also, 5/1 nrnb without GDC. I think he's the guts and finishing kick to deny GDC a 2nd Gold Cup. I was impressed with him when he won The Supreme having had a troubled run on the inside, if memory serves.

I think his recent antics could be down to the fitting of the hood, and the messing about by Hendo withdrawing him late on "exaggerated" unsuitable ground had been very frustrating for him.

Time to atone Mr Shishkin!

Shishkin has plenty of form on soft ground, so I don't agree that he would not have enjoyed the soft ground at Newbury on Saturday.

Imp, he hasn't played up since being withdrawn.

Shishkin’s best form is on soft ground not Heavy (if he liked Heavy Henderson would have run him at Sandown not withdrawn due to ground on the day). There was comparable space between the Tingle and King George as Denman Chase and Gold Cup but Henderson said that ground wasn’t suitable especially first time up. Sandown heavy is worse than Newbury heavy but better ground like he had at Kempton when unlucky not to win King George is obviously a better performance.

GDC and Shishkin are the two most talented horses in the field. One is 5/4 and the other is 9/1. Shishkin is unexposed over 3 miles plus so is the great unknown. Refusing to race and other quirks does add to his price. One thing he always does is star extremely strongly at end of his race so he is the unknown in the Gold Cup.

I’ve had big ew bet on Gerri so not pocket talking. But will have a bet on Shishkin as he’s over priced at 9/1.

Just watching Upping the Ante this week and totally agree with Johnny Dineen about Shishkin in questions from tne crowd.

I've Gerri too, but not topping up despite the much bigger prices. I hope Gerri runs much better than he did in the Savilles Chase to be a serious contender.

The ground was soft at Newbury not heavy.
That is why I said he has plenty of form on Soft.
His run against Energumene for example.

I had a few pennies on Mahler Mission after the Hennessy. That's gone
Backed Corach Rambler ew
A double with Lossiemouth and GDC after he was beat in the Durkan
And an ew double with Shishkin and Slade Steal.

But Saturdays run didn't encourage me much.

If Shiskin is the second most talented horse in the gold cup field (which I accept he could be), the sport is in trouble. He doesn't jump well, and he doesn't travel well. He does appear to stay well (at least over 3 m;  3 m 2 1/2 f with the hill at the end is a trip into the unknown). The problem he has is that GDC is also a strong stayer - look at the way he powered up the hill in the gold cup last season. Shiskin (and Corach Rambler for that matter) won't beat GDC just by outstaying him. So where does Shishkin find his advantage?

Depends if you think Shishkin would beat Fastanslow, Bravemansgame, Conflated, Gerri Colombe, Stattler and Fury Road.

I would say yes given a clearish round. Therefore he is a better level of opponent that GDC has to beat in March. GDC has proven it last year and is mostly likely winner. But who knows…Shishkin might be more talented and even stronger stayer.

Or maybe Gerri does for my bet

I agree with everything that Hibore has said, I was very keen on him after the KG, he would have hosed up there, he is completely unexposed and along with GDC is the classiest horse in the race...HOWEVER, the on and off the bridle stuff will be a killer in the GC, it'll be a cumulative thing getting worse as the race progresses, he'll just give himself too much to do. If I could convince myself that he'd travel smoothly I'd back him at the prices but I don't think that horses can come on and off the bridle like he does these days and win the GC.

Santini ran Al Boum Photo (2x winner) to a neck; Santini lacked tactical pace. Is Shishkin better than Santini? I believe so. Is Al Boum Photo as good or better than Galopin Des Champs?

If Shishkin is sweet on the day I think he'll win; Shishkin won The Supreme despite meeting obstacles in running. At 9/1 nenb is tremendous value.

Santini and Shishkin are chalk and cheese, lacking tactical pace and what Shishkin does are not the same, Shishkin doesn't "lack" tactical pace, he's on and off the bride because he's lazy, it's an attitude problem and the GC is the race that will expose the frailty in it to its fullest, because the pace that it will probably be run at will mean that Nico won't be able to leave him alone when the horse wants a little break so it'll basically pi55 the horse off more and more as the race progresses IMO.

Driving a genuine horse along because he's slow is different to driving along a horse that is telling the jock to get fcuked, just look at the Ryanair run, it's there for all to see.

I wouldn't even say the ground at Newbury at the weekend was soft let alone heavy. Good/soft at worst on the chase course

Shishkin travelled well enough at Kempton. Don’t recall many comments about his on and off the bridle there ?
Being lazy is much better than being too keen as well…especially if you keep finding which he does in spades.

You’d think I’m chairman of the Shishkin fan club reading all this. I’d better get a bet on him quickly at 9/1 now I’ve sung his praises

A throwaway stat for you - no horse aged in double figures has won the race for 25 years.

Any argument for Shiskin must be based on the hope that GDC will underperform. So whether Shiskin is value depends on the odds of that happening and the odds of Shiskin being the best of the rest on the day. I would say, therefore, 9/1 Shishkin is not great value. Still, it's far better value than Geri Colombe at the same price

I’m not overly bothered by the age stat. Not many top class horses have run in Gold Cup with the profile of Shishkin.
GDC is a good stayer but don’t think he needs to underperform to be beaten. He’s been turned over a few times now. The only other proper stayer in last years race was Noble **** who had the fastest sectional time from 4 out to the finish.This is a much tougher renewal than last year with the likes of Shishkin, Gerri, Fastorslow and Corach being better stayers up that hill than Bravemansgame and Conflated were.

GDC last two runs when beating Gerri and Fastorslow were very steady affairs 42 and 47 secs slow on the clock. I don’t think tells us that much more than he’s better than those two horses when they run a race in those conditions. The Gold Cup will be flat out looking at the participants.

Evens is an awful price. I wouldn’t lay him as I like the horse and backed him last year in the race. There are just better value bets in the race in my opinion.

Why is Shishkin not good value at 9/1? He's the unexposed horse, and never run/beaten by GDS as compared to Fastorslow at 5/1. I think one can safely deduce Fastorslow beat GDS when the latter had a tough race at Cheltenham last season; the latter was under-cooked 1st time out this season, and distance too short too.

I think 5/1 without GDS and nrnb is a price that must not be overlooked as it offers tremendous value.

Impossible - on my personal tissue, based on the factors I set out above, I'd have Shiskin at 11 or 12/1 - so I don't consider 9/1 good value. I'd also comment that there are several horses in the race considerably less exposed than Shishkin.

'strontium', why is Shishkin exposed? He was a 5 yr old when he fell on his 1st hurdle run in Dec 2019; won The Supreme at 6 in 2020. He then went chasing 2m from Nov 2020 till Dec 2022 over 2m; The Ryanair in 2023, and unseated rider at the last in the King George the same year. But, Shishkin has never been beaten when jumping the last in unison or infront.

I think Shishkin has all the credentials for winning the Gold Cup next month. I also think he's unlikely to be passed if jumping the last in unison or infront of anything at Cheltenham next month. And, 5/1 without GDC and nrnb is stonking value; 9/1 nrnb winning outright is value too. The rest including Fastorslow (greatest claim to fame was beating GDC and BMG post these two horses exertion at Cheltenham, and inadequate trip; Gerri's is running very well in the RSA; the rest except Hewick (ground dependent) are exposed and inconsistent.

The value question is a matter of opinion - mine just differs from yours, but I am often wrong. The without GDC bet is the more attractive of the two.

That isn't how the term "exposed" is usually used in horse racing. Shiskin has run 20 times under rules, 15 over fences. He doesn't have many secrets. Gentleman's Game, Geri Colombe and maybe L'homme Presse are relatively unexposed (which doesn't, of course, mean they will be good enough to win).

What price would Shishkin be if he had won the King George and not unseated rider? Which would you rather have, State Man (against CH) or Shishkin (against GDC)?

Shishkin may have had 20 races over fences, but only 3 over 3m; winning one, unseated in one, and refused to start the other. If he's sweet on the day Shishkin is the least exposed to me.

I think anyone having a bit on Shishkin should also factor his performances at the last two festivals.

Given that choice, I'd rather have Shishkin than State Man, FWIW.

Dont think hes a great price @ 9/1 today.Unless thats NRNB. If he sets off and doesnt sulk then yep 9s appears attractive however if thats the case and hes on a going day hes going to be 6s by the time they jump the 1st.

The worst price bar none is GDC when you dig down down a bit deeper . Anyone thinking evens or 4/5 is a fair price I would question.
Beaten twice at Punchestown at 4/11 and 1/2 demonstrates he’s not bomb proof. He got back on track beating Gerri and Capodanno impressively in a very steadily run race at Leopardstown, and then followed up in a similarly run race beating 170 rated Fastorslow by 4.5 lengths.

Fastorslow is the interesting horse. Well beaten by GDC in 2022 he ran very well in Cheltenham handicap off 150 finishing second to Corach Rambler (146). He then suddenly improved between 15-25lbs in his next 3 races all against 180 rated GDC. Hang over from Cheltenham is a fair excuse and shorter distance in John Durkan. But the facts are now Fastorslow is now 20lbs higher (23lbs on Irish rating)than when running against Corach Rambler at Cheltenham. His rating is purely on the back of running against GDC and Bravemansgame (no wins in 5). Horses do improve rapidly and this is obviously not impossible but until he confirms his mark outside of running against GDC I’m a bit sceptical how true the ratings are.

I would argue that evens is perfectly fair for GDC, Hibore. I would say that in his last five runs (from the 2023 gold cup onward), he has put in two performances that nothing else in this gold cup field could come close to (gold cup & Savills chase). He had valid excuses at Punchestown twice, and won the fifth race (a Grade 1, comfortably beating the second favourite for the gold cup). I agree entirely he is not bomb-proof - which is why the price is evens, not 4/11. But in my view, if he is at or near his best on the day, he wins the gold cup because he is by some way the best horse. He only loses if he is on one of his off days, or if one of the unexposed horses takes a mighty leap forward.

Your post makes perfect sense if Fastorslow is the second best 3mile Chaser. If the ratings are true then GDC would probably win comfortably.
If he’s not then that opens the door to 5 or 6 horses who have similar profiles.

Let’s hope it’s a cracking race with no hard luck stories.

Yes indeed - I'm really looking forward to it.

GDC's rating has some substance, through the gold cup (BMG, Conflated, Noble ****) & the Savills Chase (Capodanno). Fastorslow's rating is dubious for the reasons you explained. Fastorslow is rated through GDC, but not (wholly) the other way round.

On RPR Shishkin (182) is rated 2nd best to GDC (188). I do agree on a going day eg fair weather/calm and no long delay in proceeding/start I'll like him a lot on past glories at Cheltehnam; GDC at 'even's is only a banker with the Irish racegoer contingent.

Hopefully everyone shows up as planned on the day.

I would think plenty of English would see him as banker material.

You do not have to be Irish to back an Irish trained horse.

Agree entirely with the question surrounding the Fastorslow rating, the ratings say they "believe" his defeats of GDC but by the same token we are being asked to believe  there were valid excuses for GDC's defeats, both these things can't be true at the same time IMO.

I personally don't believe Fastorslow's ratings and also don't believe (on what we've seen) that GDC is quite the same horse that won last years GC, but he might be on the day and is a very strong stayer. His defeat of FOS last time wouldn't have seen GDC in his best light as it was steadily run and he really wants a test, FOS out jumped him but still couldn't get passed.

The whole Shishkin issue for me depends on whether he is lazy or not, if he does not travel he has no chance, if I thought he would be smooth and jumped well I'd make him the clear 2nd favourite and would chance him because, despite all his runs, he is unexposed over the extended trip and he too looks like a strong stayer at the trip, but I believe the whole event will work against him and he will not consent to put his best foot forward and he will fail, after the KG run I was with him but the other day put me write off him.

I think I will be looking for something longer on the day but don't know what.

If Shishkin is 2nd fav on his day, the epic boost (2x odds) offered by 'billie' is very good value; 4/1 = 8/1. But, I'd like to think Shishkin can serve it up to Galopin Des Champs on 15th Mar.

I hope he does too because what a race it would be with Bravemansgame snapping at both their heels.  And one or two others.  I think we are in for a special race.

The weight of Impossible's £5 has done for Shishkin.

So true Strontium.
Sadly it will have been nrnb so he won’t have lost his fiver.

First time he hasnt backed a jolly too .....

He'll be reconsidering his whole approach to betting.

Not sure how this ended up in a three page thread - but hopefully my initial post was a help to some of you.

boooooommmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

4.0 here for next year. Too big a price.

Nice one Uncle