Cheltenham Festival
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Not showing on oddschecker but BetVictor are 5/2 on GDC for tbe 2024 Gold Cup.
Best price elsewhere is 6/4 and there is money on the lay side on hete at 2/1.
Just laid me a lumpy bet so be quick.
Best price elsewhere is 6/4 and there is money on the lay side on hete at 2/1.
Just laid me a lumpy bet so be quick.
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Did you back A Plus Tard after his win in 2022? Much easier win than Galopin but form since is PP.
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I watched the Gold Cup again yesterday. I think GDC is a monster. Made lots of little jumping errors. Made a bad error three out, and didn't break stride. Still hammered them.
The form of the race looks rock solid (coming round the home turn, 170-rated Hewick was with the Betfair (Lancashire) chase winner, the Irish Gold Cup winner, the Savills Chase winner, and the King George winner) - that is, the winners of the four principal staying chases run before the Gold Cup were the remaining contenders two out. GDC put 6 lengths into the King George winner after the last. His best jumps were probably the last two. The way he finished his race and powered through the line was extraordinary. Sage - I take on what you say. Gold Cup winners often look great but can't repeat it. But this one looks special to my eye. I reckon he could run 10 lbs below his form this year and still likely win next year. Yet he could easily improve if his jumping can be sharpened up. I think he's the most exciting chaser since Kauto Star, and he has a lot of the same attributes (athleticism, blend of speed and stamina). I also don't see any likely stars among the staying novices. I very much hope Mullins can keep him sound. As for A Plus Tard - he was perhaps unlucky to be pulled up in the Gold Cup. Blackmore was tracking GDC on his inner (a couple of lengths behind). APT got badly caught in the melee when Ahoy Senor brought down Sounds Russian and lost about 10 lengths on GDC. He had no chance after that, and Blackmore chose to look after him, so I think it's hard to count the "P" as a negative (though I don't think he'd have beaten GDC) It's also a reminder how luck is needed in jump racing - one more horsewidth out, and it's GDC who gets badly hampered by Sounds Russian, and APT skips on by. |
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Luck is needed Stron.
A great example is Constitution Hill in last seasons Supreme. |
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7/4 now
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2-1
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still 2/1 in places hillies go 6/4
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9/4 on exchanges
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It's bubbling up nicely. Geri Coulmobe looked very smart beating those high-quality, race-fit horses. He'll be charging up the hill come March.
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Gerri did well to win. $64k what did he beat? I understand this was his 1st race of the season. Will be beat Bravemansgame?
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I think GC will want an out and out stamina test. Will be outpaced coming down the hill/round the home turn, but may well be staying on best.
As for what he beat today, the Ryanair winner and the Savills Chase winner (though who knows in what sort of form). |
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It looked an incredible performance from before the last and to utter BMG who got beaten by a horse having it's 3rd chase run when this has beaten a Ryanair winner savilles winner and former GC winner enough said.
It doesn't mean it wins GC but ffs give credit when it's due,if you want to carry on knocking Irish horses IMPOSSIBLE that's fine by me but I hope it's jesting as I would hope you will include some of these when placing you're bets in races that they look to have the upper hand we're all punters at the end of the day |
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I agree Gerri would be outpaced coming down the hill when the pace has tended to quicken in the Gold Cup; Gerri ran a good race beating Envoi Allen (a non-staying 3m Gp 1 racer), and a regressing Minella Indo. I think a different proposition against Galopin Des Champs and Bravemansgame.
Can Gerri do what Santini could not? I think his in-running price will be more than 5/1 antepost. |
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still best priced at 9/4 on exchanges . most bookies offering best priced 2/1
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I think he'll be much shorter if winning the John Durkan even if Gerri Colombe is not present; it would show he's not regressed.
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I was very impressed with Gerri at Down Royal. There are not many horses I’ve seen recently that would have picked up that well after the last. He obviously got a huge engine and the long straight in the Gold Cup is playing to his strengths.
Not many wins from the last 3 years Gold Cup winners if you look back. The race can leave a huge mark. 5/1 Gerri is better value than Galopin 5/2 until we see him run. |
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The fences get in the way a bit with Gerri, he doesn't gain ground at them, he's not the quickest over them and has to be ridden away from them a bit, it's not bad but coupled with him getting a little tapped for toe, it all adds up.
With horses like him that come home so strongly the inclination a lot of the time is just to imagine that finishing kick solving all and to disregard the toll on the horse of the likelihood that he will be getting worked on earlier than others. |
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Just gone back to the 2023 Gold Cup result. Royal Pagaille the only runner there to win a good race since. Galopin was second in his only run and goes tomorrow, Bravemansgame has been beaten 3 times, Conflated PU, 5th of 5 and 3rd of 4, Noble Yates 4th in the GN and seventh in France, Protektorat last of 4 today, Eldorado Allen 5.4.3 so about par, Hewick won a moderate race at Sandown and then 2 moderate runs since, Minella Indo has won but rated 20lb below his best. Not saying it was a poor Gold Cup but it certainly raises questions about the effect it has had on the field since.
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3/1 now!!
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i missed yesterdays race how did it run
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Didn't jump or travel well at all.
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Apart from that, he was great.
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Jumped poorly, jockey said he felt very flat the whole way and trainer was very disappointed yet he was still beaten less than two lengths so God help the opposition if he can get his mojo back.
Hopefully Willie gets a fresh supply of magic carrots for Christmas. |
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ok thanks might go back in at 3/1
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Despite what appeared to be a good King George win, Bravemansgame's form does not really stand up as Gold Cup class yet he still looked the winner at the second last in March until GDC kicked in his stamina turbo and beat him fairly easily. I know there is not much to put up against last years first 2 but we said that when Al Boum Photo lined up after his runaway Gold Cup win. Stage Star may not run in the KG or the Gold Cup but I reckon his PP win was the best chasing performance of the autumn. I doubt if he would get the Gold Cup trip but I think he would win the King George if at his best.
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That's a really interesting thought Sageform. Nicholls loves the KG, and wouldn't pass up a chance to win it. But if Stage Star were to win the KG, they'd be almost obliged to go for the Gold Cup, which he has far less chance of winning than the Ryanair. For me, the KG is all about Allaho - if he's anywhere near his best, it's his for the taking. But is he?
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thinking back, Nicholls did say that SS preferred to go left handed which might rule out Kempton and Aintree. Takes him back to the Ryanair.
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Looked pretty good today
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Satisfied with my position now.
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me too
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best price 11/8
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very happy with this ante post bet
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now 8/11 which is too short for me to place any more bets.
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THE REAL WHACKER will finish 2nd in the Gold Cup.
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What are you basing that on, Saxon?
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looks like its cut and dried for the fav but as we know its seldom that simple ,on ratings he should win but too short for me ,he takes a huge chunk out of the market and therefore big prices on some others , on good ground hewick cannot be ignored and gentlemansgame is unexposed and should arrive fresh with just a few chase runs nrnb takes the risk out of it and you have the ew option of 3 places.
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Several people are posting here like the horse already has the cup in its saddlebag, but it's odds-against on here. Why haven't you mopped up all that value?
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Shishkin is 5/1 without GDC (nrnb) or 9/1 nrnb.
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correct strontium , anything can happen !
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