Cheltenham Festival
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Another festival over and some great racing and stories - and thankfully no whip debacle or, afaik, any dead horses.
The three big races were all won by the long time ante post favourites and it's hard to see them getting beat next year either- around 20/1 the treble seems a fair bet.
Of course there is still the question of whether Constitution Hill stays over hurdles or goes chasing - and that will have a huge impact on what other horses may do.
He is clearly exceptional but given his speed at 2m it's surely unlikely he'll be as effective at 3m2f so Gold Cup glory is unlikely as much as that is the dream for Michael Buckley.
As such if he were mine I'd rather try and win three or more CH with him.
Novice hurdles review
Marine Nationale and Impaire Et Passe were both superb winners but not sure they can beat Constitution Hill over 2m so until we know the state of play hard to get involved.
Both will obviously be very promising chasers but the bookies are giving nothing away at 5/1 for the Arkle.
The Albert Bartlett looked very strong on paper but the result was a bit of a shock. Of course Corbetts Cross went off hot favourite and he tanked through the race like easily the best horse (maybe running him over 2m before the Festival was a mistake?) - however he was definitely beaten to my eyes when ducking out at the last. If he can learn to settle he may yet be a Gold Cup horse but next season you would think the Turners would be his race rather than the Brown Advisory - 16/1 looks fair?
One interesting point to make, and I read this somewhere, is that the Albert Bartlett is nearly always won by horses that have previously won a 3m point - the front two yesterday both met that criteria.
Novice Chases review
The novice chases weren't very exciting.
El Fabiolo was a comfortable winner of the Arkle but I'm not sure it was that strong a race and the form of his win at the Dublin festival also looks less impressive by the day. Like wise Jonbons form is not very strong.
He's the biggest threat to Energumene but I'm amazed he's shorter in the betting. The going could be the deciding factor - proper soft and give me Energumene any day.
Ferny Hollow may yet rise like Lazarus and throw his hat into the ring but I would bet on it.
In the Brown Advisory over 3m The Real Whacker put up a great front running display to hold off Gerri Colombe but if the race had been run an hour later when it was raining it would likely have been different.
Could see TRW going well in the Ryanair but nobody is quoting him.
Gerri Colombe will presumably be aimed at the Gold Cup but hard to see him troubling the principals unless it's a mudbath.
The Turners didn't take much winning and a canny ride on Stage Star saw him prevail but don't see it having any great impact on next years meeting.
Bumper
Great to see a small yard and jockey win the bumper with a hugely promising horse in A Dream To Share. Given his win at the DRF under a penalty it was very surprising he wasn't a hot favourite. Presumably the little known trainer and amateur jockey put people, off along with the usual Mullins bumper mania. Same sort of thing happened a few years ago with Dunguib who should have been about 6/4 but won easily at 9/2.
He's 8/1 for the Supreme which is twice the price Facile Vega was after last years festival also that seems fair. He's flat bred so no reason to think he'll go for the Ballymore.
The three big races were all won by the long time ante post favourites and it's hard to see them getting beat next year either- around 20/1 the treble seems a fair bet.
Of course there is still the question of whether Constitution Hill stays over hurdles or goes chasing - and that will have a huge impact on what other horses may do.
He is clearly exceptional but given his speed at 2m it's surely unlikely he'll be as effective at 3m2f so Gold Cup glory is unlikely as much as that is the dream for Michael Buckley.
As such if he were mine I'd rather try and win three or more CH with him.
Novice hurdles review
Marine Nationale and Impaire Et Passe were both superb winners but not sure they can beat Constitution Hill over 2m so until we know the state of play hard to get involved.
Both will obviously be very promising chasers but the bookies are giving nothing away at 5/1 for the Arkle.
The Albert Bartlett looked very strong on paper but the result was a bit of a shock. Of course Corbetts Cross went off hot favourite and he tanked through the race like easily the best horse (maybe running him over 2m before the Festival was a mistake?) - however he was definitely beaten to my eyes when ducking out at the last. If he can learn to settle he may yet be a Gold Cup horse but next season you would think the Turners would be his race rather than the Brown Advisory - 16/1 looks fair?
One interesting point to make, and I read this somewhere, is that the Albert Bartlett is nearly always won by horses that have previously won a 3m point - the front two yesterday both met that criteria.
Novice Chases review
The novice chases weren't very exciting.
El Fabiolo was a comfortable winner of the Arkle but I'm not sure it was that strong a race and the form of his win at the Dublin festival also looks less impressive by the day. Like wise Jonbons form is not very strong.
He's the biggest threat to Energumene but I'm amazed he's shorter in the betting. The going could be the deciding factor - proper soft and give me Energumene any day.
Ferny Hollow may yet rise like Lazarus and throw his hat into the ring but I would bet on it.
In the Brown Advisory over 3m The Real Whacker put up a great front running display to hold off Gerri Colombe but if the race had been run an hour later when it was raining it would likely have been different.
Could see TRW going well in the Ryanair but nobody is quoting him.
Gerri Colombe will presumably be aimed at the Gold Cup but hard to see him troubling the principals unless it's a mudbath.
The Turners didn't take much winning and a canny ride on Stage Star saw him prevail but don't see it having any great impact on next years meeting.
Bumper
Great to see a small yard and jockey win the bumper with a hugely promising horse in A Dream To Share. Given his win at the DRF under a penalty it was very surprising he wasn't a hot favourite. Presumably the little known trainer and amateur jockey put people, off along with the usual Mullins bumper mania. Same sort of thing happened a few years ago with Dunguib who should have been about 6/4 but won easily at 9/2.
He's 8/1 for the Supreme which is twice the price Facile Vega was after last years festival also that seems fair. He's flat bred so no reason to think he'll go for the Ballymore.
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Uncle feel for you in this horrible time you are going through i no this is easy thing to say but try to stay positive i did will give you a winner to look forward to at next years festival even though i very rarely tip one up mainly always a layer at Cheltenham Mr Policeman in the Arkle, when it wins and you are feeling better you can send me a bottle of Bollinger.
Good luck with your wealth but more important your health.
Ronnie.
Good luck with your wealth but more important your health.
Ronnie.
Hope you’re keeping well Uncle.
Could be an interesting 2 days at Cheltenham. Plenty of runners from Ireland with Flooring Porter the most high profile…could he be a contender in the RSA or is this just an afterthought. Lots of other interesting races to get stuck into.
I wonder if Cheltenham have spent any money on the facilities this year. Hopefully the Insurance bar has had a lick of paint and new carpet. Anyway, look forward to discussing the festival over the next 5 months
Good luck anyone going or having a bet this weekend.
Could be an interesting 2 days at Cheltenham. Plenty of runners from Ireland with Flooring Porter the most high profile…could he be a contender in the RSA or is this just an afterthought. Lots of other interesting races to get stuck into.
I wonder if Cheltenham have spent any money on the facilities this year. Hopefully the Insurance bar has had a lick of paint and new carpet. Anyway, look forward to discussing the festival over the next 5 months
Good luck anyone going or having a bet this weekend.
Well the jumps season really got into gear over the last week or so with lots of proven and potential stats reappearing.
Bravemansgame got beaten but for me did no great harm to his KG prospects. With Nicky making very bullish noises about Shiskin and Allaho showing he is alive and well I was hoping the bookies might push BMG out to 3/1 which would be maximum e/w bet materials but he is still only 2/1 so no bet. Some talk about him still going for the Betfair Chase but that would be a negative for me.
Gerri Colombe made a winning return when just outstaying Envoi Allen at Down Royal. He looks an out and out stayer, very much Denman to Galopin Des Champs Kauto Star. I know Ruby Walsh has expressed fears that GDC may be under par this year after such a hard race at Cheltenham and Punchestown so Gerri is definitely the most likely beneficiary if that is the case.
Corbett Cross was very disappointing on his chase debut but it’s early days and I ‘d give him another chance,
Plenty of impressive novice hurdlers - maybe Down Memory Lane being the one to note.
Bravemansgame got beaten but for me did no great harm to his KG prospects. With Nicky making very bullish noises about Shiskin and Allaho showing he is alive and well I was hoping the bookies might push BMG out to 3/1 which would be maximum e/w bet materials but he is still only 2/1 so no bet. Some talk about him still going for the Betfair Chase but that would be a negative for me.
Gerri Colombe made a winning return when just outstaying Envoi Allen at Down Royal. He looks an out and out stayer, very much Denman to Galopin Des Champs Kauto Star. I know Ruby Walsh has expressed fears that GDC may be under par this year after such a hard race at Cheltenham and Punchestown so Gerri is definitely the most likely beneficiary if that is the case.
Corbett Cross was very disappointing on his chase debut but it’s early days and I ‘d give him another chance,
Plenty of impressive novice hurdlers - maybe Down Memory Lane being the one to note.
I have always liked Gerri Colombe and you can not knock his attitude.
But a neck defeat of Envoi Allen, a 7 length victory over Complete Unknown and a defeat at the hands of The Real Whacker does not add up to a 5/1 second favourite for a Gold Cup.
He may prove to be a genuine contender, but not yet.
But a neck defeat of Envoi Allen, a 7 length victory over Complete Unknown and a defeat at the hands of The Real Whacker does not add up to a 5/1 second favourite for a Gold Cup.
He may prove to be a genuine contender, but not yet.
He had to battle as well,
first day back after seven months and had to go to battle
prefer Bravemansgame ride , a little less severe
first day back after seven months and had to go to battle
prefer Bravemansgame ride , a little less severe
And with only one more run at Christmas before the festival he surely would have been plenty fit enough on Saturday. He's the bright new thing though and there is always a deal of more attention to those horses, throw in the subsequent potential kinks in the armour of the first two home in last years GC and it further drives the narrative.
Someone said earlier that he's more Denman to GDC's Kauto, well from what we've seen so far he's more Galvin/Santini rather than Denman, his price is very short.
Someone said earlier that he's more Denman to GDC's Kauto, well from what we've seen so far he's more Galvin/Santini rather than Denman, his price is very short.
Of the 20 markets currently price up Mullins has 10 favourites and one joint fav!
I do not think the Gerri Colombe in the Brown Windsor would be good enough to beat Bravemansgame let alone Galopin Des Champ but the longer trip will certainly help. He'd be lacking tactical speed coming off the final bend, but the hill will suit. Nevertheless, 5/1 now is pretty short already.
impossible123 - please don’t post your inane ramblings on my thread.
Another decent weekend of racing on both sides of the Irish Sea though Cheltenham was fairly underwhelming imo.
Stage Star was impressive, and in hindsight was a big price, but the race, bar the last fence, panned out perfectly for him. He beat the same horse he did in the Turners so not sure it told us anything new, and a top form Allaho would surely leave him for dust.
In similar fashion Jonbon won impressively and at least they rode him aggressively which I think is the only way he can win a Queen Mother. I can forgive him one poor run and he never looked happy in last years, so with it effectively being a two horse race the 11/4 is fair enough.
Iberico Lord won the Greatwood for the same connections and will presumably be laid out for the County Hurdle where the.New Course should suit his run style.
Over at Naas it was good to see Bob Olinger show some of his old class
All the talk is about going for the Stayers but given his cruising speed I’d rather see him aimed at the Champion though there is next to no chance of that.
Facile Vega won well enough on his chase debut but Inthepocket was purely ridden to finish second and with several potential rivals for the Turners dropping out injured (Good Land and Iroko) I am very pleased with my antepist position.
One other horse I will mention is Slade Steel who won at Naas the previous Sunday. Looks like a step in trip will suit so the Ballymore looks the right target (same connections as Bob Olinger who won it). Have had a speculative punt at 75 on here.
Stage Star was impressive, and in hindsight was a big price, but the race, bar the last fence, panned out perfectly for him. He beat the same horse he did in the Turners so not sure it told us anything new, and a top form Allaho would surely leave him for dust.
In similar fashion Jonbon won impressively and at least they rode him aggressively which I think is the only way he can win a Queen Mother. I can forgive him one poor run and he never looked happy in last years, so with it effectively being a two horse race the 11/4 is fair enough.
Iberico Lord won the Greatwood for the same connections and will presumably be laid out for the County Hurdle where the.New Course should suit his run style.
Over at Naas it was good to see Bob Olinger show some of his old class
All the talk is about going for the Stayers but given his cruising speed I’d rather see him aimed at the Champion though there is next to no chance of that.
Facile Vega won well enough on his chase debut but Inthepocket was purely ridden to finish second and with several potential rivals for the Turners dropping out injured (Good Land and Iroko) I am very pleased with my antepist position.
One other horse I will mention is Slade Steel who won at Naas the previous Sunday. Looks like a step in trip will suit so the Ballymore looks the right target (same connections as Bob Olinger who won it). Have had a speculative punt at 75 on here.
But how close to top form will Allaho be? It will be 3 years since his peak performance.
That’s the great unknown and means I couldn’t back him - in fact he’s a horse I’ve never backed iirc. Like a lot of the great horses (Frankel, Kauto etc) they are never my sort of price.
But having watched back last years race Envoi Allen bolted in despite making serious mistakes at 4 out and 3 out, and was a bit untidybtwo out but was still on the bridle when pinging the last. He ran a blinder at Down Royal when just outstayed by GC and I was amazed to see he was as big at 14/1 so have played on him.
But having watched back last years race Envoi Allen bolted in despite making serious mistakes at 4 out and 3 out, and was a bit untidybtwo out but was still on the bridle when pinging the last. He ran a blinder at Down Royal when just outstayed by GC and I was amazed to see he was as big at 14/1 so have played on him.
Had a little 85s Dont Tell Sue for the AB , post the run of Minella Missile and todays Yes Day run didnt do any harm either . Not normally a Nichols race but hopefully Stay Away Fay has given him a taste .
I'll certainly be keeping an eye on the Envoi Allen Ryanair price over the next few months. Barring injury, a surefire runner and won well last year despite arguably softer than ideal (and softer than usual) ground. I could see him running at least one disappointing race between now and the Festival but the stable is very good at getting them right in March.
'GoBallistic', I tend to agree. Envoi Allen ran a very good race last time. He's a great chance of winning the Ryanair again; 14/1 ain't a bad price either. On the other hand Allaho will need to prove himself to be back to his old self to be 5/1 fav; a lot shorter if not regressed.
Firefox was a good long-range shout, Uncle. It'll be interesting to see where he heads.
Thanks Pete - certainly happy with my speculative antepost flutter.
Also Slade Steel just had his form boosted on the Royal Bond.
Corbett Cross won a deep novice chase on Saturday but still hard to know where he’ll be aimed. Personally the more I look at him I think the Brown Advisory over 3m on the Old Course is the right race but who knows?
As I suggested running Bravemansgame in the Betfair looked the wrong decision - pretty sure this was all about Nichols trying to be Champion trainer and he might have scuppered his KG chances in the process.
Also Slade Steel just had his form boosted on the Royal Bond.
Corbett Cross won a deep novice chase on Saturday but still hard to know where he’ll be aimed. Personally the more I look at him I think the Brown Advisory over 3m on the Old Course is the right race but who knows?
As I suggested running Bravemansgame in the Betfair looked the wrong decision - pretty sure this was all about Nichols trying to be Champion trainer and he might have scuppered his KG chances in the process.
Another good weekend of racing though having backed Mahler Mission ante post it was also a bit frustrating.
In terms of Grade 1 action the Hattons Grace was by far the most interesting. Teahupoo repeating last years win against the previously unbeaten Impair Et Passe.
Elliot say Teahupoo won't run again until the Stayers which looks an excellent decision and I took some 5/1 shortly after the race. Looks a weak division and although he was beaten favourite last year in really attritional conditions hopefully he's a stronger horse this time around. Definitely the class act unless Thelma is the next Barracuda.
Impaire Et Passe lost little in defeat and a stronger run two miles in a bigger field should suit him - whether he can beat State Man let alone Constitution Hill is another matter.
The Drinmore Novice chase was won by last years Irish National winner in a quirk of the race planning system and Mullins suggest he may now be aimed at the big Grade 1 open races over 3m though I doubt he's up to that class.
Letsbeclearabout was disappointing.
The Royal Bond looked to be a little underwhelming beforehand and it will be disappointing if there aren't several better types for the Supreme.
At Newbury on Friday Hermes Allen put up an impressive chasing debut and may well be the best of the British, not that did him much good against the Irish last year!!
In terms of Grade 1 action the Hattons Grace was by far the most interesting. Teahupoo repeating last years win against the previously unbeaten Impair Et Passe.
Elliot say Teahupoo won't run again until the Stayers which looks an excellent decision and I took some 5/1 shortly after the race. Looks a weak division and although he was beaten favourite last year in really attritional conditions hopefully he's a stronger horse this time around. Definitely the class act unless Thelma is the next Barracuda.
Impaire Et Passe lost little in defeat and a stronger run two miles in a bigger field should suit him - whether he can beat State Man let alone Constitution Hill is another matter.
The Drinmore Novice chase was won by last years Irish National winner in a quirk of the race planning system and Mullins suggest he may now be aimed at the big Grade 1 open races over 3m though I doubt he's up to that class.
Letsbeclearabout was disappointing.
The Royal Bond looked to be a little underwhelming beforehand and it will be disappointing if there aren't several better types for the Supreme.
At Newbury on Friday Hermes Allen put up an impressive chasing debut and may well be the best of the British, not that did him much good against the Irish last year!!
I agree with the break for Teahupoo.
His record when fresh is very good.
He is very ground dependent though.
I'm not sure how soft the ground really was on the Thursday of Cheltenham last season. The times of the races do not back up the official going description.
It is a weak division as usual. I have a small bet on the French gelding at 19/1.
But unsure how good he really is.
His record when fresh is very good.
He is very ground dependent though.
I'm not sure how soft the ground really was on the Thursday of Cheltenham last season. The times of the races do not back up the official going description.
It is a weak division as usual. I have a small bet on the French gelding at 19/1.
But unsure how good he really is.
Three Card Brag should surely be favourite for the NH Chase now, that horse has been gagging for a proper trip since it saw a hurdle!
Well I've just had my first speculative bet for next years festival and it's on what I think is a very big price at 40/ for Letsbeclearaboutit for the NH Chase, as Uncle says he was disappointing and on the face of it he was as he started favourite and trailed in 5 lengths adrift of the front two.
But against better opposition over that trip he just wasn't quick enough late on, he still jumped immaculately gaining ground at almost every fence and for me has still been one of the best two novice chasers in terms of jumping that we've seen so far this season but he just plugs on at the end, particularly over that trip. In the AB last year he jumped and travelled beautifully turning in but was one paced late on but plugged on.
His asset is his jumping and his ability to travel, the extended trip and 23 fences could see him bowling along gaining ground getting his rivals in trouble throughout in the NH Chase, his preference for soft ground sees a race on the first day ideal too.
But against better opposition over that trip he just wasn't quick enough late on, he still jumped immaculately gaining ground at almost every fence and for me has still been one of the best two novice chasers in terms of jumping that we've seen so far this season but he just plugs on at the end, particularly over that trip. In the AB last year he jumped and travelled beautifully turning in but was one paced late on but plugged on.
His asset is his jumping and his ability to travel, the extended trip and 23 fences could see him bowling along gaining ground getting his rivals in trouble throughout in the NH Chase, his preference for soft ground sees a race on the first day ideal too.
Letsbeclearaboutit jumped great at the weekend.
Would be better suited to a drop in trip, I would have thought.
Would be better suited to a drop in trip, I would have thought.
Yeah maybe, his jumping will get many in trouble, to a point, however I think there would be a limit against even quicker horses over shorter again. He's a 3 mile heavy ground winner and yes it's all relative, I just think that he might just be able to keep going and going in that rhythm and over the extended trip and with that jumping he might be able to beat them off one by one.
Pleasing hurdle debut from Chapeau Du Soleil at Clonmel.
So far so good for most of my long range picks.
So far so good for most of my long range picks.
^But he hung badly left on his bumper debut so not sure I have any reason to think going left handed will be a negative.
Nice performance from Slade Steel today.
Nice performance from Slade Steel today.
El Fabiolo workmanlike and not really pressed but only 4 secs quicker than the mares novice chase.
Can't really make the leaders go any quicker so you're argument about time makes no sense.
The trainer will be happy with that on 1st run back
The trainer will be happy with that on 1st run back
Hate after timing…but I did back Gaelic Warrior at a decent price and laid him on here,,,currently 5/2 in a few firms 3,45 on purple and cash going thru as we type under 3 on here,,,Arbors out there
Oh dear Facile Vega! Could Gaelic Warrior be rerouted for The Arkle? The former finished last despite odds-on in a 4-runner race today at Leopardstown.
A thrilling King George and great to see the little guy win. Sadly I was on Shiskin but that's racing.
Constitution Hill did what he always does but hopefully he can bet tested more by the Mullins pair later on.
The French Novice chaser was ultra impressive but not sure he'll be coming to Cheltenham.
Some good racing in Ireland and it was the novice and juvenile hurdlers that were of most interest to me.
Having said the Royal Bond might not have been that good the Elliot horses that filled the front two places both ran ran really well. Sadly the winner of the Royal Bond Farren Glory fell when cruising in what used to be the Tolworth and King of Kingsfield destroyed the highly touted Mirazur West at Leopardstown.
The Grade 2 Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown saw Kala Conti reverse Fairyhouse form with Nurburgring on 6lb better terms, the pair split by a Kargese,a Mullins French recruit making it's debut.
The horse that I took out of the race though was back in 4th, namely Batman Girac.
A Mullins trained horse in the green Munir silks he had been a warm favourite for the aforementioned Fairyhouse race on his debut but hung badly left all the way and was pulled up.
Here he was settled out the back and was still last jumping two out before making rapid headway up the inside. He fluffed the last where it was a bit crowded but then picked up strongly once reorganised and switched round the tiring horses. He may be more of a Fred Winter type but I wouldn't be surprised if he ran really well back in the Grade 1 at the Dublin Festival and so had a small dabble at 100/1 for the Triumph.
At Limerick another Mullins newcomer Bunting was impressive in the juvenile hurdle and is now 10/1 2nd fav. Burdett Road the fav runs today at Chepstow and I can see him getting beat in what could be atrocious going.
In the Grade 2 Novice Hurdle over nearly 3m the Mullins trained Loughglynn was a good winner despite fluffing the last. He beat / outstayed Firefox in a bumper (see pg1) and he had two solid yardsticks of Elliots behind yesterday and the Albert Bartlett looks the obvious race for him. 16/1 is fair enough.
Constitution Hill did what he always does but hopefully he can bet tested more by the Mullins pair later on.
The French Novice chaser was ultra impressive but not sure he'll be coming to Cheltenham.
Some good racing in Ireland and it was the novice and juvenile hurdlers that were of most interest to me.
Having said the Royal Bond might not have been that good the Elliot horses that filled the front two places both ran ran really well. Sadly the winner of the Royal Bond Farren Glory fell when cruising in what used to be the Tolworth and King of Kingsfield destroyed the highly touted Mirazur West at Leopardstown.
The Grade 2 Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown saw Kala Conti reverse Fairyhouse form with Nurburgring on 6lb better terms, the pair split by a Kargese,a Mullins French recruit making it's debut.
The horse that I took out of the race though was back in 4th, namely Batman Girac.
A Mullins trained horse in the green Munir silks he had been a warm favourite for the aforementioned Fairyhouse race on his debut but hung badly left all the way and was pulled up.
Here he was settled out the back and was still last jumping two out before making rapid headway up the inside. He fluffed the last where it was a bit crowded but then picked up strongly once reorganised and switched round the tiring horses. He may be more of a Fred Winter type but I wouldn't be surprised if he ran really well back in the Grade 1 at the Dublin Festival and so had a small dabble at 100/1 for the Triumph.
At Limerick another Mullins newcomer Bunting was impressive in the juvenile hurdle and is now 10/1 2nd fav. Burdett Road the fav runs today at Chepstow and I can see him getting beat in what could be atrocious going.
In the Grade 2 Novice Hurdle over nearly 3m the Mullins trained Loughglynn was a good winner despite fluffing the last. He beat / outstayed Firefox in a bumper (see pg1) and he had two solid yardsticks of Elliots behind yesterday and the Albert Bartlett looks the obvious race for him. 16/1 is fair enough.
One thing that hasn't been talked about in all the fuss about the French horse was what a good race Hermes Allen ran too, he wasn't too far off the pace set by the French horse the whole way and after making a bad mistake looked like he might capitulate and might be forgiven for doing so after trying to chase that pace throughout but rallied really well after and finished off quite strong, he looks a right stayer and that a stiffer track will suit him better, with no IEF to contend with 20/1 for the RSA seems very fair.
I've got to agree Duffy. It reminded me a little of Kauto Star chasing Denman in the Gold Cup - Hermes was faced with an impossible task on the day, but he stuck at it courageously.
The thing is though, surely Nicholls will want to split up Hermes Allen and Stay Away Fay, SAF is the stronger stayer, and he is much too good to run in the NH Chase. So Hermes is likely to end up in the Turners almost by default. It's also possible that such a hard race will leave its mark on Hermes.
The thing is though, surely Nicholls will want to split up Hermes Allen and Stay Away Fay, SAF is the stronger stayer, and he is much too good to run in the NH Chase. So Hermes is likely to end up in the Turners almost by default. It's also possible that such a hard race will leave its mark on Hermes.
Yeah both Nicholl's horses does throw a spanner in the works but I would not like Hermes dropping back in trip for fear it turned out to be anything other than a strongly run race, last years Ballymore was a crawl and Hermes got hopelessly outpaced when they quickened, he looks an out and out stayer,also with a view to picking between the two, they've both got form with Giovinco who put up a very good display against Stay Away Fay but was absolutely broken yesterday. I would like SAF going up rather than Hermes dropping back.
Nicholls has already said SAF won't run in the NH chase I believe, but plans change. I agree with you that Hermes is a 3-miler.
A fabulous performance by Galopin Des Champ and if in anything like that form only the fences or bad luck can get him beat in March.
Stateman was also impressive and is so consistent that if nothing else he’s a good yardstick by which to rate Constitution Hill.
After a poor Boxing Day Willie Mullins team really came to the party and there were loafs of nice novice performances from the likes of Ballyburn, Jade De Grugy, Fact To File, Gaelic Warrior, Grangeclare West etc, though so hard to be sure which race at Cheltenham they will be targeted at.
Marine Nationale made a very satisfactory start to his chasing career but odds on after that one run is not tempting me, for all the opposition is looking thin.
At Newbury and Cheltenham there was little to get excited about.
Really hard to see the Challow winner Captain Teague finishing in the same parish as the Irish.
Jeriko Du Reponet won nicely but 5/1 for the Supreme looks bonkers when horses like Farren Glory and King of Kingsfield are 16/1 or bigger.
At Cheltenham Stage Star blew out and with Allaho not looking anything like the horse of two seasons ago the Ryanair looks wide open.
I was pleased they pulled Envoi Allen out of the Savills but after seeing what GDC did to that field surely Bravemansgame should
be rerouted to the Ryanair. 20/1 available or 8/1 nrnb.
One other horse I will mention is Inothewayurthinkin with a view to the Grand Annual.
After winning his first two novice hurdles he was campaigned in graded races and fell just short, and a similar thing is happening with his chase career. No disgrace in being beaten by Imagine (Grade 2 winner since) and twice by Gaelic Warrior.
McManus often aims one like this at the Grand Annusl and it’s usually very well punted. Dinoblye, Andy Dufresne Entoucas and Ned Buntline all finished second in their novice seasons.
Gavin Cromwell having a golden spell at Cheltenham as well so can easily see this going off as favourite. 12/1 nrnb with Hills.
Stateman was also impressive and is so consistent that if nothing else he’s a good yardstick by which to rate Constitution Hill.
After a poor Boxing Day Willie Mullins team really came to the party and there were loafs of nice novice performances from the likes of Ballyburn, Jade De Grugy, Fact To File, Gaelic Warrior, Grangeclare West etc, though so hard to be sure which race at Cheltenham they will be targeted at.
Marine Nationale made a very satisfactory start to his chasing career but odds on after that one run is not tempting me, for all the opposition is looking thin.
At Newbury and Cheltenham there was little to get excited about.
Really hard to see the Challow winner Captain Teague finishing in the same parish as the Irish.
Jeriko Du Reponet won nicely but 5/1 for the Supreme looks bonkers when horses like Farren Glory and King of Kingsfield are 16/1 or bigger.
At Cheltenham Stage Star blew out and with Allaho not looking anything like the horse of two seasons ago the Ryanair looks wide open.
I was pleased they pulled Envoi Allen out of the Savills but after seeing what GDC did to that field surely Bravemansgame should
be rerouted to the Ryanair. 20/1 available or 8/1 nrnb.
One other horse I will mention is Inothewayurthinkin with a view to the Grand Annual.
After winning his first two novice hurdles he was campaigned in graded races and fell just short, and a similar thing is happening with his chase career. No disgrace in being beaten by Imagine (Grade 2 winner since) and twice by Gaelic Warrior.
McManus often aims one like this at the Grand Annusl and it’s usually very well punted. Dinoblye, Andy Dufresne Entoucas and Ned Buntline all finished second in their novice seasons.
Gavin Cromwell having a golden spell at Cheltenham as well so can easily see this going off as favourite. 12/1 nrnb with Hills.
Mullins race targets about to warm up now, His comments about stepping FV up in trip interesting with Gaelic Warrior already a strong fav in the Turners and GW heading the market in the RSA. Even money about MN might appear big come the day, market looks full of horses that won't be turning up and looks like another small field, perhaps Blood Destiny after an impressive debut at 12/1 E/W could be something with perhaps the likely small field.
Will Hill NRNB with the usual miserly prices. Worth keeping an eye out, though. If they go shorter on here
it's definitely worth a dabble in my experience.
it's definitely worth a dabble in my experience.
cant back anything on that billys site ,they have changed the format and i cant figga it out .prob saved me a few quid tbh.
Bunting (Triumph) from the same stable that won with Vauban; Mr Bloom (Energumene) owns him. He's running in the Dublin festival next month, and 7/1 nrnb (billie) or 12 here.
WTF were they doing with Letsbeclearaboutit today ffs, he wants to go out in trip, his asset is his jumping is a 3 mile heavy ground winner and placed in the AB, but he's one paced, so they drop him back in trip and hold him up for a turn of foot???? which he hated btw and his jumping went to pot...that is one hell of a head scratcher
A couple of big novice hurdles in Ireland and normal service resumed with Mullins dominating.
Something that hasn’t been mentioned is the relatively poor form of the Elliot stable since Christmas.
The Lawlors Of Naas was won by the 16/1 shot Reading Tommy Wrong who beat his much better fancied stablemate Ile Atlantique. I think the most significant part of the result was that it make Ballyburn the clear Mullins number 1 for the Ballymore, despite there having been a big move for him for the Supreme.
Firefox was well beaten in 4th, patently not staying. He’d shown so much pace when beating Ballyburn over 2m that he is surely going to be dropped back to that trip now. And as I say the Elliot yard is not firing at all so I will definitely give him another chance.
On Sunday at Punchestown Mystical Power was a taking winner of the Moscow Flyer though with only 4 runners it maybe didn’t take a lot of winning. He’s now 9/2 favourite for the Supreme and certainly has better credentials than Jeriko Du Reponet.
Something that hasn’t been mentioned is the relatively poor form of the Elliot stable since Christmas.
The Lawlors Of Naas was won by the 16/1 shot Reading Tommy Wrong who beat his much better fancied stablemate Ile Atlantique. I think the most significant part of the result was that it make Ballyburn the clear Mullins number 1 for the Ballymore, despite there having been a big move for him for the Supreme.
Firefox was well beaten in 4th, patently not staying. He’d shown so much pace when beating Ballyburn over 2m that he is surely going to be dropped back to that trip now. And as I say the Elliot yard is not firing at all so I will definitely give him another chance.
On Sunday at Punchestown Mystical Power was a taking winner of the Moscow Flyer though with only 4 runners it maybe didn’t take a lot of winning. He’s now 9/2 favourite for the Supreme and certainly has better credentials than Jeriko Du Reponet.
Thank you, as always, for your interesting comments Uncle.
I really can't make my mind up about Mystical Power. Not sure he beat much on Sunday. Jumped poorly in the first third of the race, but after a long time off track. Jumped well at the business end. Looked in trouble coming round the home turn, then put the others away readily. Will stay well in the Supreme. Price must be influenced by his uber powerful connections and pedigree. Poor speed rating on Sunday, apparently.
Nothing has really caught my imagination yet for the Supreme, and the race still doesn't seem to have taken shape. I'm starting to wonder if Farren Glory is the overpriced one, despite Elliot's relatively poor record with 2 mile hurdlers. Won one grade 1 and fell late in another when going best - that looks OK with little standout form in the field.
As always, the race at the DRF will be hugely informative.
I really can't make my mind up about Mystical Power. Not sure he beat much on Sunday. Jumped poorly in the first third of the race, but after a long time off track. Jumped well at the business end. Looked in trouble coming round the home turn, then put the others away readily. Will stay well in the Supreme. Price must be influenced by his uber powerful connections and pedigree. Poor speed rating on Sunday, apparently.
Nothing has really caught my imagination yet for the Supreme, and the race still doesn't seem to have taken shape. I'm starting to wonder if Farren Glory is the overpriced one, despite Elliot's relatively poor record with 2 mile hurdlers. Won one grade 1 and fell late in another when going best - that looks OK with little standout form in the field.
As always, the race at the DRF will be hugely informative.
I hope so Strontium , backed Farren for both just in case , but though I had thought how well he was going when he fell , I didnt realise quite how bad it looked , so glad to see him entered at Leopardstown .
Thanks for the kind comment Strontium.
I noticed the Spirting Life review of the weekend action and it’s relevance to Cheltenham by Graham Northmentions the poor form of the Elliot string over the last few weeks.
I said earlier in the thread that the Royal Bond one-two were overpriced but I backed King Of Kingsfield at 44/1. Partly because it was a really nasty looking fall by Farren Glory and I’d want to see him show no I’ll effects before backing him, and secondly because I’m a sucker for strong travelling bridle horses that don’t find much as it makes things so exciting.
KofK reminds me of Abacadabdras who got chinned by Shiskin in the Supreme after looking all over the winner.
I noticed the Spirting Life review of the weekend action and it’s relevance to Cheltenham by Graham Northmentions the poor form of the Elliot string over the last few weeks.
I said earlier in the thread that the Royal Bond one-two were overpriced but I backed King Of Kingsfield at 44/1. Partly because it was a really nasty looking fall by Farren Glory and I’d want to see him show no I’ll effects before backing him, and secondly because I’m a sucker for strong travelling bridle horses that don’t find much as it makes things so exciting.
KofK reminds me of Abacadabdras who got chinned by Shiskin in the Supreme after looking all over the winner.
A good days racing at Cheltenham and Doncaster with the Irish dominating the top races which will surely continue at the Festival in March.
Jonbon got turned over at 1/4 after an appalling round of jumping. I stated earlier in the thread the only way to ride him is aggressively from the front but again they held him up behind the pacesetters and he was way below par.
El Fabiolo just needs to turn up and jump a clear round on this evidence.
The Cleeve was a great watch with the usual suspects all bang there at the last but surely one of Elliots at the top of the market will have too much class for the old boys unless it's very attritional.
Lossiemouth bolted in against a very weak field and could easily be a player in future Champion Hurdles like Honeysuckle and Annie Power were. The Mares Hurdle looks a penalty kick although it is over an extra half mile which might give the opposition some hope.
Sir Gino was super impressive in the Triumph trial and unless one of the lightly raced Mullins horses can put up a similar performance at the Dublin Racing Festival he looks a solid favourite. He's a strapping individual and looks a good one for next years Arkle.
Over at Fairyhouse Jade De Gruchy won easily again and she will be hard to beat in the Mares Novice - 4/1 is fair.
Jack Kennedy was on The Road To Cheltenham and interestingly he had no hesitation in saying he would pick Firefox over Farrens Glory and King Of Kingsfield in the Supreme.
Hopefully some of the Mullins running plans, especially with his novices, may become more clear after the Dublin Racing festival.
Jonbon got turned over at 1/4 after an appalling round of jumping. I stated earlier in the thread the only way to ride him is aggressively from the front but again they held him up behind the pacesetters and he was way below par.
El Fabiolo just needs to turn up and jump a clear round on this evidence.
The Cleeve was a great watch with the usual suspects all bang there at the last but surely one of Elliots at the top of the market will have too much class for the old boys unless it's very attritional.
Lossiemouth bolted in against a very weak field and could easily be a player in future Champion Hurdles like Honeysuckle and Annie Power were. The Mares Hurdle looks a penalty kick although it is over an extra half mile which might give the opposition some hope.
Sir Gino was super impressive in the Triumph trial and unless one of the lightly raced Mullins horses can put up a similar performance at the Dublin Racing Festival he looks a solid favourite. He's a strapping individual and looks a good one for next years Arkle.
Over at Fairyhouse Jade De Gruchy won easily again and she will be hard to beat in the Mares Novice - 4/1 is fair.
Jack Kennedy was on The Road To Cheltenham and interestingly he had no hesitation in saying he would pick Firefox over Farrens Glory and King Of Kingsfield in the Supreme.
Hopefully some of the Mullins running plans, especially with his novices, may become more clear after the Dublin Racing festival.
How did you rate Ashroe Diamond, Uncle? I thought she probably had tougher opposition than Lossiemouth (a couple of proper Grade 1 mares compared with a bunch of second-raters). AD also stays 2 1/2 miles for sure. We don't know the relative fitness of the horses, but AD beat Gala Marceau by about as much as Lossiemouth beat her twice last season. Lossiemouth does have Cheltenham and Festival form, which AD does not.
Overall, Lossiemouth was super-impressive on the eye yesterday, but I wonder if the relative prices on here (L 1.9/AD 7.4) are right? The horses could be closer together than that. There is also the possibility Lossiemouth goes for the Champion - Rich Richi says she won't, but we all know it's not really up to him. And what if Constitution Hill's bad scope turns out to be something more serious?
Overall, Lossiemouth was super-impressive on the eye yesterday, but I wonder if the relative prices on here (L 1.9/AD 7.4) are right? The horses could be closer together than that. There is also the possibility Lossiemouth goes for the Champion - Rich Richi says she won't, but we all know it's not really up to him. And what if Constitution Hill's bad scope turns out to be something more serious?
Ashfield Diamond won well but WM did say he felt the race conditions (track, trip, ground) were all in her favour and that Gala Marceau would need the run. The only surprise was the betting with GM going off favourite.
Wouldn’t be surprised if AD swerves the Mares at Cheltenham.
Wouldn’t be surprised if AD swerves the Mares at Cheltenham.
Interesting, thanks Uncle. I believe Patrick is desperate to ride AD at the festival, but is he in favour at the moment? 
Two great days of racing coming up at Leopardstown which should shed plenty of light on Cheltenham targets.
The usual Mullins mind games starting already with Gaelic Warrior, no doubt won’t be the last.
I thought Il Etait Temps was a fair e/w bet at 20/1 in the Arkle trial. Won the Grade 1 novice hurdle on this card last year and gave Gaelic Warrior a bit of a race at Christmas.
I was hoping King Of Kingsfield would go for the old Ladbroke H’cp hurdle but he is in the Grade 1 novice which looks the most interesting race of the weekend. Have no problem with Ballyburn being favourite but odds on seems too short given the strength of the field.
The usual Mullins mind games starting already with Gaelic Warrior, no doubt won’t be the last.
I thought Il Etait Temps was a fair e/w bet at 20/1 in the Arkle trial. Won the Grade 1 novice hurdle on this card last year and gave Gaelic Warrior a bit of a race at Christmas.
I was hoping King Of Kingsfield would go for the old Ladbroke H’cp hurdle but he is in the Grade 1 novice which looks the most interesting race of the weekend. Have no problem with Ballyburn being favourite but odds on seems too short given the strength of the field.
A very pleasing result.
Even got 32/1 for a fiver using Hills Epic Boost offer.
Even got 32/1 for a fiver using Hills Epic Boost offer.
Well the DRF played out pretty much as expected as a WPM benefit.
Not sure we learned a whole lot that we didn't already know - GDC, El Fabiolo and Statesman all won quite impressively but didn't really enhance their Cheltenham claims in the process.
There were only two really impressive winners, though sadly Jeroboam Machin is out for the season with an injury, and Ballyburn who still has two options, though I will be surprised if he doesn't go for the Supreme.
Was delighted with the run of Slade Steel in second and he surely deserves to be favourite for the Ballymore if Ballyburn is absent.
Kargese won a very competitive looking Triumph trial fairly decisively and while Sir Gino looks a monster she seems overpriced at double figures on here - even if only a cover bet.
The long distance novice hurdle was won by outsider Dancing King at 16/1 but not sure any of them looked like Cheltenham winners.
The Arkle trial went as I had hoped
and has blown the race wide open. Marine National was beaten a long way out and while the trainer is claiming it was just the ground and suggesting we will see a different horse at Cheltenham it would take a brave man to take what is still a bad price. Kevin Blake in particular was very vocal that the horse may be gone due to breathing issues.
The front two both have their chance and tbh I'd favour Found A Fifty at Cheltenham though in no rush to back him yet. Facile Vega ran a bit better but might step up in trip.
Fact Or File won a match that turned into a walkover nearly a mile from home so very difficult to know what he achieved. The time was apparently very good and he is clearly a nice prospect but he is very short and what race does he go for?
With the news Grangeclare West is out do they step him up to 3m for the Brown Advisory, and run Facile Vega in the Turners? What they do with Gaelic Warrior is anyones guess??
Not sure we learned a whole lot that we didn't already know - GDC, El Fabiolo and Statesman all won quite impressively but didn't really enhance their Cheltenham claims in the process.
There were only two really impressive winners, though sadly Jeroboam Machin is out for the season with an injury, and Ballyburn who still has two options, though I will be surprised if he doesn't go for the Supreme.
Was delighted with the run of Slade Steel in second and he surely deserves to be favourite for the Ballymore if Ballyburn is absent.
Kargese won a very competitive looking Triumph trial fairly decisively and while Sir Gino looks a monster she seems overpriced at double figures on here - even if only a cover bet.
The long distance novice hurdle was won by outsider Dancing King at 16/1 but not sure any of them looked like Cheltenham winners.
The Arkle trial went as I had hoped
and has blown the race wide open. Marine National was beaten a long way out and while the trainer is claiming it was just the ground and suggesting we will see a different horse at Cheltenham it would take a brave man to take what is still a bad price. Kevin Blake in particular was very vocal that the horse may be gone due to breathing issues.The front two both have their chance and tbh I'd favour Found A Fifty at Cheltenham though in no rush to back him yet. Facile Vega ran a bit better but might step up in trip.
Fact Or File won a match that turned into a walkover nearly a mile from home so very difficult to know what he achieved. The time was apparently very good and he is clearly a nice prospect but he is very short and what race does he go for?
With the news Grangeclare West is out do they step him up to 3m for the Brown Advisory, and run Facile Vega in the Turners? What they do with Gaelic Warrior is anyones guess??
Henry de Bromhead has revealed that exciting novice chaser Inthepocket is back in training and, while not committing to anything, has refused to rule out the prospect of the JP McManus-owned Grade 1 winner making next month's Cheltenham Festival.
Another JP horse that has made an amazing recovery!!!!
Another JP horse that has made an amazing recovery!!!!
An impressive win by Tullyhill at Punchestown and as he would be Paul Townshends ride in a Supreme, unlike Mystical Power, maybe that will have Mullins divert Ballyburn back to the Ballymore (or whatever it's called).
Also interesting to read that Henry De Bromhead does not want to take on Ballyburn again with Slade Steel so that could mean SS is switched to the Supreme in the backwash.
Also interesting to read that Henry De Bromhead does not want to take on Ballyburn again with Slade Steel so that could mean SS is switched to the Supreme in the backwash.
Im convinced Bally runs on Weds, backed Tully at 8 and 7 after todays race for Supreme, if im right about Bally, Tully will be short on the day
Should Ballyburn go for the Ballymore there will be less than ten runners, and he will be a shorter price than he ever would have been for a Supreme.
This Ballymore or Supreme question has been the biggest nonsense of the jump season. Even though he has looked like the Ballymore winner before the season even started, it seemed he might be thrown at the shorter race purely because the stable jock isn't on a fancied horse? That has never made any sense. He's the best novice, and you just run him over a trip that suits, not one you think he might be able to get away with. That would just give him the best chance of not winning either race. Hopefully, today's result is a nudge towards sanity.
This Ballymore or Supreme question has been the biggest nonsense of the jump season. Even though he has looked like the Ballymore winner before the season even started, it seemed he might be thrown at the shorter race purely because the stable jock isn't on a fancied horse? That has never made any sense. He's the best novice, and you just run him over a trip that suits, not one you think he might be able to get away with. That would just give him the best chance of not winning either race. Hopefully, today's result is a nudge towards sanity.
Is Hendo reading the bookies' paper too diligently? He'd not understand the criticism levied on Shishkin, and some looking for chinks in Constitution Hill.
Mr Henderson, just chill! The bookies' stooges are merely writing for their paymasters. Constitution Hill is as certain as taxes (nrnb). I think - on a going day - Shishkin is as comfortable usurping GDC in the Gold Cup as China usurping the USA as the world's leading economy in the near future. And, the forgotten Jeriko Du Reponet is now at a backable price for The Supreme.
All good Hendo. Go out and let your hair down!
Mr Henderson, just chill! The bookies' stooges are merely writing for their paymasters. Constitution Hill is as certain as taxes (nrnb). I think - on a going day - Shishkin is as comfortable usurping GDC in the Gold Cup as China usurping the USA as the world's leading economy in the near future. And, the forgotten Jeriko Du Reponet is now at a backable price for The Supreme.
All good Hendo. Go out and let your hair down!
Not at all, but there are probably a few Supreme backers who appear unwilling to take their blinkers off.
That was a shocking Grade 1 with two stayers pulling clear, and Ballyburn doing no more than confirm bumper form with Slade Steel. The second favourite ran no race at all, and the rest are very likely a bunch of handicappers. Even though he had the run of the race (which he wouldn't have in a Supreme, but would in a Ballymore) he wasn't pulling away from the second at the line, and relatively speaking he produced the weakest finish of his career. Almost certainly that was due to going faster than a staying horse would want to ideally go in the early stages. Clearly a load of pundits (who had probably taken a flyer on him going Supreme) tried to pretend the performance was something special. It wasn't, it wasn't as impressive as when he bolted up at Christmas over a far more suitable trip. There is absolutely no chance that the horse is a two-miler. Before today he was looking at a choice between trying to get away with it in a Supreme, or likely bolting up in a Ballymore. After today there shouldn't really be a choice to be made, but I appreciate this is Mullins, which probably explains why he hasn't drifted to a million for the Supreme.
That was a shocking Grade 1 with two stayers pulling clear, and Ballyburn doing no more than confirm bumper form with Slade Steel. The second favourite ran no race at all, and the rest are very likely a bunch of handicappers. Even though he had the run of the race (which he wouldn't have in a Supreme, but would in a Ballymore) he wasn't pulling away from the second at the line, and relatively speaking he produced the weakest finish of his career. Almost certainly that was due to going faster than a staying horse would want to ideally go in the early stages. Clearly a load of pundits (who had probably taken a flyer on him going Supreme) tried to pretend the performance was something special. It wasn't, it wasn't as impressive as when he bolted up at Christmas over a far more suitable trip. There is absolutely no chance that the horse is a two-miler. Before today he was looking at a choice between trying to get away with it in a Supreme, or likely bolting up in a Ballymore. After today there shouldn't really be a choice to be made, but I appreciate this is Mullins, which probably explains why he hasn't drifted to a million for the Supreme.
With Mr Mullins' charges it's always prudent to follow the market nearer the time; inside info = greed as far as Closutton stable is concerned. It never strays too far away from the truth. Money talks!
Once Ballyburn steps up to open company I am sure he will be more effective over a trip.
But as a young novice he will have the ability to run in either race.
Just like Vautour and Faugheen. I am positive they would have won either race that they ran in.
But as a young novice he will have the ability to run in either race.
Just like Vautour and Faugheen. I am positive they would have won either race that they ran in.
A shocking G1 you would like to have on other side of the water
This Ballyburn debate is very similar to the debate over which of the two races Appreciate It should have run in.
If he ran in the Supreme I'd be more concerned if it wasn't strongly run, (something he'd have to ensure if it wasn't happening) and he got done by something like Firefox again for a turn of foot. We know the old adage, stayers run in the Supreme and Champion Hurdle types run in the Ballymore as that's the race that is the speed test despite the longer trip.
If he ran in the Supreme I'd be more concerned if it wasn't strongly run, (something he'd have to ensure if it wasn't happening) and he got done by something like Firefox again for a turn of foot. We know the old adage, stayers run in the Supreme and Champion Hurdle types run in the Ballymore as that's the race that is the speed test despite the longer trip.
I don't think that Appreciate It was ever a penalty kick for either race. Ballyburn is the best novice of the season, and it would be a big fail not to win a race at the Festival with him. Had he run over the right trip from the outset he wouldn't have been beaten this season. Unfortunately, part of Mullins is still trying to prove that starting point was correct.
As I said yesterday it's only down to the Mullins factor that the debate hasn't closed. He could announce today which way the horses are going. If Ballyburn went Ballymore the ground won't be an issue as he stays further than that trip, and the stable now has at least a couple of chances in the Supreme.
That old adage about stamina and speed just isn't true, it's become a lazy statement. If you look at the vast majority of winners of both races (people just like to cherry pick a few winners that suit) there is little evidence to support it. In any case Townend could dictate the speed of a small field Ballymore.
As I said yesterday it's only down to the Mullins factor that the debate hasn't closed. He could announce today which way the horses are going. If Ballyburn went Ballymore the ground won't be an issue as he stays further than that trip, and the stable now has at least a couple of chances in the Supreme.
That old adage about stamina and speed just isn't true, it's become a lazy statement. If you look at the vast majority of winners of both races (people just like to cherry pick a few winners that suit) there is little evidence to support it. In any case Townend could dictate the speed of a small field Ballymore.
Mullins and "trip" is a unique situation. He has so many good horses, that he wishes to keep apart where possible, there simply aren't enough races run in Ireland for him to always run them at their optimal trip. He is happy to run novice hurdlers at any trip to find them a race. He habitually runs novice chasers over too short a trip so they learn to jump at pace, and often only steps them up to the "right" trip at the Festival itself. Given his record, I think we need to say his method works.
As for Ballyburn, I think he wins whichever race he runs in. He was pigeon-holed pre-season as a "Ballymore type", and that seems to have coloured a lot of people's thinking. But the DRF race proved he is highly effective at 2 m. Habitually, Mullins runs his Festival horses in the race he thinks they have the best chance of winning. It's one of those where we'll find out at 10 am on March 10th.
As for Ballyburn, I think he wins whichever race he runs in. He was pigeon-holed pre-season as a "Ballymore type", and that seems to have coloured a lot of people's thinking. But the DRF race proved he is highly effective at 2 m. Habitually, Mullins runs his Festival horses in the race he thinks they have the best chance of winning. It's one of those where we'll find out at 10 am on March 10th.
I don't want to go over the same arguments, but Ballyburn wasn't pigeon-holed as a Ballymore type, everything about his performances in bumpers (having to be shaken up, and running strongly through the line) and pedigree shouted he was a Ballymore type. He has been favourite for that race from the start of the season. There would have been loads of options to start him off over the intermediate trip, but Mullins just chose to ignore them, resulting in him being palpably outpaced and beaten.
All the DRF proved was he was capable of confirming his bumper form with another stayer, in a poor Grade 1. Basically, he got away with winning a poor race. I would say the approximate percentage chances of him winning would be Supreme 20 (and that might be too generous), and Ballymore 90.
All the DRF proved was he was capable of confirming his bumper form with another stayer, in a poor Grade 1. Basically, he got away with winning a poor race. I would say the approximate percentage chances of him winning would be Supreme 20 (and that might be too generous), and Ballymore 90.
Willie knows what he's doing. He may even know more about jump racing and his horses than you do.
However, BB has drifted for the Supreme and shortened for the Ballymore, so maybe Willie reads your posts.
However, BB has drifted for the Supreme and shortened for the Ballymore, so maybe Willie reads your posts.
Anyone with mega antepost bets maturing at this Festival? Most of mine have hit the deck already with just GDS (several accas from the Flat) and of course Shishkin after the flop of his last visit here.
The calm before the storm right now with little incentive to bet now until final decs with so much uncertainty about running plans and indeed the ground.
With most bookies offering nrnb, and very poor odds as a consequence, the only really guide is movement on here, but that only takes small amounts of money.
The Supreme market is certainly suggesting that Ballyburn is heading there with Mystical Power switching to the Baring Bingham - but that can all change!!
Hopefully good news for me as my biggest single position is on Slade Steel for the BB having backed him at 75.
No incentive to second guess what is running in the handicaps as the bookies will be offering similar odds and far more place terms on the day.
Obviously it was a shame to hear about Constitution Hill - not in a single bet of mine but the meeting will be much poorer if he is unable to run or blows out if they risk it.
On a personal note I finished my 6 cycle (12 sessions) chemotherapy course on Tuesday. Now have a CT scan on Tuesday with a view to having some radiotherapy and then I have to wait 12 weeks before I get a PET scan which will show if there is any live cancer left.
With most bookies offering nrnb, and very poor odds as a consequence, the only really guide is movement on here, but that only takes small amounts of money.
The Supreme market is certainly suggesting that Ballyburn is heading there with Mystical Power switching to the Baring Bingham - but that can all change!!
Hopefully good news for me as my biggest single position is on Slade Steel for the BB having backed him at 75.
No incentive to second guess what is running in the handicaps as the bookies will be offering similar odds and far more place terms on the day.
Obviously it was a shame to hear about Constitution Hill - not in a single bet of mine but the meeting will be much poorer if he is unable to run or blows out if they risk it.
On a personal note I finished my 6 cycle (12 sessions) chemotherapy course on Tuesday. Now have a CT scan on Tuesday with a view to having some radiotherapy and then I have to wait 12 weeks before I get a PET scan which will show if there is any live cancer left.
Racing on Tuesday 12 March 2024
Cheltenham
(Updated: 09:11, 29th Feb)
Tue 12 Mar
Going/Track:
Soft
(GoingStick:4.7 on 28-02-2024 at 09:00)
Weather:
101mm of rainfall in February. Wet and windy forecast for
Thursday and Friday (29th & 1st) with 8-10mm possible. Drier
weekend with minimal rain expected. Light showers for the early
part of next week with some dry days expected at the end of the
week. OFFICIAL REPORT No1
Cheltenham
(Updated: 09:11, 29th Feb)
Tue 12 Mar
Going/Track:
Soft
(GoingStick:4.7 on 28-02-2024 at 09:00)
Weather:
101mm of rainfall in February. Wet and windy forecast for
Thursday and Friday (29th & 1st) with 8-10mm possible. Drier
weekend with minimal rain expected. Light showers for the early
part of next week with some dry days expected at the end of the
week. OFFICIAL REPORT No1
Puts everything in perspective Uncle
Wish you well in the coming weeks/months,everything crossed for Slade Steel,cracking punt to look forward to
Wish you well in the coming weeks/months,everything crossed for Slade Steel,cracking punt to look forward to
Hope it's OK Uncle.
Did you tip Slade Steel in this thread at 75? Or a different thread
Did you tip Slade Steel in this thread at 75? Or a different thread
unclepuncle 22 Nov 23 11:30
One other horse I will mention is Slade Steel who won at Naas the previous Sunday. Looks like a step in trip will suit so the Ballymore looks the right target (same connections as Bob Olinger who won it). Have had a speculative punt at 75 on here.
On page 2 of this thread Pete.
One other horse I will mention is Slade Steel who won at Naas the previous Sunday. Looks like a step in trip will suit so the Ballymore looks the right target (same connections as Bob Olinger who won it). Have had a speculative punt at 75 on here.
On page 2 of this thread Pete.
Good news uncle….have a good fezzie,,,no doubt a few big name drop outs to come,,,Maugheen last nite
Just pulling yer leg. I bet a couple of the ones you mentioned, but I think I missed that one. Firefox was
a good one - it's given me a reasonable position in the novice hurdles. Thanks.
a good one - it's given me a reasonable position in the novice hurdles. Thanks.
Constitution Hill a non runner.
Also Ballyburn and Mystical Piwer have now gone the other way in the Supreme / Baring Bingham market.
Also Ballyburn and Mystical Piwer have now gone the other way in the Supreme / Baring Bingham market.
Slade steel shorter for the supreme now uncle
Mullins has confirmed Ballyburn for the Baring Bingham.
Slade Steel will switch to Supreme.
HDB said after DRF that he will avoid Ballyburn.
HDB said after DRF that he will avoid Ballyburn.
PeteTheBloke • March 4, 2024 5:50 PM GMT
Marine Nationale out
Theres a shock ..... nap landed ...
irishone • April 16, 2023 9:24 PM BST
Marine National wont train on (Nap )
Marine Nationale out
Theres a shock ..... nap landed ...
irishone • April 16, 2023 9:24 PM BST
Marine National wont train on (Nap )
Anyone still think the 2 mile novice hurdle at the DRF was a poor race?
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