Cheltenham Festival

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cobra sam
28 Feb 23 16:22
Date Joined: 31 Oct 04
| Topic/replies: 523 | Blogger: cobra sam's blog
all changed in dublin ,,all of a sudden its not a 1 horse race....small ew speculative punt @25/1 Dr Bravo Nrnb..hopefully big improver and takes his chance
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Report muse March 7, 2023 1:03 AM GMT
It's a game of opinions, of course irishone.  But I don't think the Royal Bond, and teh collateral form of the Lawlors of Naas is anywhere near as strong as it is some years.  And i can't have him that short simply on the strength of that run.  I'd have him about 5/1, which you might yet get on the day. But I could not be tempted at 7/2 or there abouts.
Report geoff m March 7, 2023 5:40 AM GMT
Agree with Muse, shocking price.Took an age for Marine Nationale to catch Irish Point in the Royal Bond. Irish Point was struggling after 3  Hurdles in the Tattersals Grade 1 @ DRF and finished 16 lengths behind Il Etait Temps. On that form Marine has a mountain climb. Promising horse with plenty of potential, But the price is so wrong. Laying the front 2 @ 11/10 the pair is the lay of the meeting .
Report brandyontherocks March 7, 2023 4:40 PM GMT
I'm seeing 148 for Il Etait Temps
Report strontium March 7, 2023 6:24 PM GMT
He was rated 155 - look at the weights for the County. I guess 148 is his Irish mark?
Report Bentring March 7, 2023 6:33 PM GMT
Of course it's his Irish mark what other Mark would it have next to it when it's trained in Ireland,that won't change just because it is entered in great Britain if would be too confusing
Report strontium March 7, 2023 6:48 PM GMT
No need to be rude old son.
Report irishone March 7, 2023 7:42 PM GMT

when Connell shouts you listen mate
Report irishone March 7, 2023 7:48 PM GMT
155 rating ?
Ratings are bollux lads ...never look at them
thoroughbreds change with the seasons.... ratings dont
Asterion Forlonge was 155 came 4th
More holes than a hedgehogs lilo
Report brandyontherocks March 7, 2023 8:56 PM GMT
I wasn't being rude Stront.

Apologies if you thought I was.
Report brandyontherocks March 7, 2023 8:58 PM GMT
But thanks for info
Report strontium March 7, 2023 9:03 PM GMT
You weren't Brandy, Bentring was.
Report brandyontherocks March 7, 2023 9:55 PM GMT
Oh, OK.

I cant see posts from Bentring.
Report Bentring March 8, 2023 1:43 AM GMT
I can't see posts from Bentring! Apologies for being rude what was it you thought strontium found rude...and strontium how was I being rude...just pointing the obvious that Irish racing is covered by IHRB so why would there be a BHA mark next to it this what this place is all about cliques...Well brandy you have been fishing with some of your posts looking a response well now you have one with your ridiculous last post.
Report irishone March 8, 2023 10:56 AM GMT
form isn't the be all and end all
the markets reflect form , and about 35% of favourites win
form doesn't tell you so many things
the ground is the major factor
the course is another
the weather is another
the jockey is pretty important to
.....and if the horse gets the sniff of a mare on the way out
anything could happen
Cheltenham is a different kettle of fish
good luck
Report .Marksman. March 8, 2023 11:42 AM GMT
Facile Vega is the horse I'm most keen to lay at Cheltenham:
His very easy win in last year's Cheltenham Bumper was in shocking ground and American Mike, who finished second, has been disappointing since.
His subsequent bumper win (on better ground) was not impressive at all.
The way he capitulated last time suggests that he won't be up to it.  I know he went a fast pace early, but was then left with an uncontested lead for most of the remainder of the race until 2 out.
Even if the last race at Leopardstown is ignored, he would still look poor value, unless we get very soft ground.
Report impossible123 March 9, 2023 4:30 PM GMT
Facile Vega is poor value but he was odds-on before his latest suicidal pace race. I'd rather back him than Il Etait Temps. I'd be worried if 2nd fav Marine Nationale was trained by Mr Mullins too.
Report cobra sam March 10, 2023 5:14 PM GMT
looks like gaelic warrior could be a runner ..very weak in ballymore and money coming here
Report strontium March 10, 2023 6:24 PM GMT
He'll liven the race up every time he tries to jump into the car park.
Report geoff m March 10, 2023 6:41 PM GMT
yer wouldnt want your selection upsides to his right.
Report harry callaghan March 10, 2023 7:21 PM GMT
This could upset the apple cart, facile vega fans won’t be happy but it won’t be the first time Mullins has put everyone away
Report geoff m March 10, 2023 8:37 PM GMT
Sir Gerard last year i think was fav for Supreme before being switched  & bolting up in Ballymore after DRF.
Report harry callaghan March 10, 2023 10:14 PM GMT
Champagne fever another who made the late switch. The man has a lot of convictions plus the owner as well
Report strontium March 10, 2023 10:32 PM GMT
Vautor possibly the most notorious (different races of course, but same owner/trainer).
Report jimnast March 12, 2023 3:31 PM GMT
Inthepocket a surprise runner
Report gpz6316 March 12, 2023 4:50 PM GMT
Having spent the afternoon getting familiar with the field , I think that tahmuras looks good . A strong stayer whom travels nicely through his races  , acts on soft , proven class / tolworth winner , unbeaten over hurdles winning twice l/h and 12.0 on the machine . Nicholls yard is in great form , he says that tahmuras " is in the same mould as al ferof and noland strong stayers who both won this and is in top shape " Most punters will be looking out for mullins and writing off paul down to the stats . Write tahmuras off at your peril ! Best of luck
Report Bentring March 12, 2023 5:42 PM GMT
The breeding has evolved since those animals,hardly world beaters
Report penzance March 12, 2023 6:31 PM GMT
Marine Nationale,the last time he run he beat Irish Point,
that won today but was getting 9LB from the rnr up.Has been
btn in his 2 previous runs before today.That form of Marine
Nationale could be a bit suspect.
Report geoff m March 12, 2023 9:04 PM GMT
cant believe hes so short Penzance. Irish Point only got caught on the post by Marine in barone. Yet he went to DRF and was taken of his feet and was 7 lengths behind Inthepocket & Dark Raven who are 20s and32s on here repectively & 16 lengths behind Il Et Temps whos a bigger price.Supposedly needs decent ground . How hes 5.4 ish beggars belief.
Report Bentring March 12, 2023 9:13 PM GMT
You mean the Royal Bond geoff Barney is only the bookie sponsor
Report irishone March 14, 2023 1:15 PM GMT
hoping willies are spot on today
first four in this would be a gas
Report irishone March 14, 2023 1:39 PM GMT
Report•Quote•Block Useririshone • March 7, 2023 7:42 PM GMT

when Connell shouts you listen mate
Report penzance March 14, 2023 2:43 PM GMT
Must admit through Irish Point thought that had a bit to do
to win today.
Good to see someone different on the board though.
Report .Marksman. March 14, 2023 2:43 PM GMT
The race finished an hour ago and Betfair haven't yet settled the Ante Post market...In contrast the Arkle market is done and dusted.
Report impossible123 November 9, 2023 9:01 PM GMT
Willmount was impressive at Newbury today. He was described as "different league" by Hendo in his win. The Tolworth Hurdle would have been next but for being moved to Aintree on Boxing Day which clashes with the King George (Shishkin) at Kempton meaning Nico cannot be at both meetings on the same day.

What an interested dilemma for Nico?
Report strontium November 9, 2023 9:13 PM GMT
Surely he'd ride Shishkin in that scenario.
Report impossible123 November 9, 2023 10:51 PM GMT
I'd think so too. In the past Altior went to the Supreme Trial, and Constitution Hill to The Tolworth prior to Cheltenham Festival.
Report impossible123 December 5, 2023 7:40 PM GMT
Willmount is running in the Claremont Novices' Hurdle at Sandown this saturday following the path of Constitution Hill two years ago. No doubt a long odds-on; Nico rides.
Report impossible123 December 8, 2023 7:32 PM GMT
Boom or bust tomorrow if Sandown gets the go ahead; Nico is onboard. Otherwise Tolworth at Aintree on Boxing Day (without Nico).
Report impossible123 December 9, 2023 8:40 AM GMT
Hendo's not deemed the heavy ground to be suitable - he's pulled out Constitution Hill and Shishkin too. That leaves The Tolworth at Aintree on Boxing Day.
Report strontium December 9, 2023 10:06 AM GMT
The Tolworth has been renamed The Formby, to add insult to injury.
Report impossible123 December 9, 2023 4:37 PM GMT
I guess to reflect the geography of the venue ie from Kingston upon-Thames to Merseyside. Formby? I thought it was named after George Formby!
Report strontium December 9, 2023 7:34 PM GMT
Other way round - he took his name from the location scrawled on the side of a coal train. Anyway, Henderson is now moaning about the logistics of getting horses to Aintree on Boxing Day....
Report irishone December 10, 2023 1:55 PM GMT
He is a total nutter
Report cobra sam December 12, 2023 4:06 PM GMT
He’s not punter friendly,,,,the ITV crew think the sun shines out of his rear end
Report impossible123 December 12, 2023 4:34 PM GMT
I think Hendo actually believes horseracing revolves around him, and not the other way round. Mr Mullins makes multiple entries for his charges. Imagine Hendo has the same number of star charges. The punters will be led a merry-go-round on virtually every one of them even before Cheltenham.
Report duffy December 12, 2023 5:55 PM GMT
Mullins after stating that he is considering sending El Fabiolo to Ascot

Report irishone December 13, 2023 9:29 AM GMT
CH ran in it last year HEAVY
No issues
This year ..... same situ Henderson pulls it
Report impossible123 December 13, 2023 4:15 PM GMT
Hendo intimated at the backend of last season a "discussion" with owner of CH about a possible reroute to fences. However, he stated later it was not even discussed. I think all this was for the benefit of his bookie sponsor. I believe (I cannot be totally precise) he informed punters on his sponsor's website about Altior non-appearance at a key race against a Nicholl's runner.

In the future I'd like ask Hendo to keep his gob shut, and to allow punters to risk their money without his constant pontification about his star charges race plan.
Report impossible123 December 13, 2023 4:17 PM GMT
And, may I ask Shishkin without a prior race before the King George is a 'lay' for a possible non-starter - whilst under orders on track or Hendo's last minute wimp not to run eg ground/blood count/etc.
Report duffy December 13, 2023 5:07 PM GMT
There was a Welsh Grand National trial run on Saturday, if that can be run 2 weeks before that slog why can't a 2 mile hurdler manage it, especially one that would have barely come off the snaff??
Report impossible123 December 13, 2023 5:28 PM GMT
Hendo is a creature of habit more so now than ever. I hope Hendo makes an effort of running Willmount at Aintree on Boxing Day. As for Constitution Hill I believe he does not need a prep prior to the X'mas hurdle; he's a seasoned campaigner, and has rating in his favour massively.
Report brandyontherocks December 14, 2023 10:31 AM GMT
It was the sensible thing to do on Saturday to scratch Constitution Hill.

Do not understand what all the fuss is about.
Report impossible123 December 18, 2023 5:20 PM GMT
The Formby (Tolworth) at Aintree is a 2m 4f race; the Tolworth was a 2m race. Will Willmount head there now?
Report strontium December 18, 2023 6:08 PM GMT
Don't know where you saw that Impossible, it's 2 miles and half a furlong.
Report impossible123 December 18, 2023 6:27 PM GMT
Aintree website: start time (13:05); distance 2m 4f
Report impossible123 December 18, 2023 6:28 PM GMT
Sorry 'strontium' I was looking at the Grand national Meeting. Sorry, old age!
Report impossible123 December 18, 2023 6:31 PM GMT
No. I was correct 1st time. It's Boxing Day schedule: time (13:05); distance 2m 4f.
Report strontium December 18, 2023 6:39 PM GMT
It's given as 2 miles 103 yards on the BHA fixtures site and in the pattern book.
Report strontium December 18, 2023 8:02 PM GMT
The 2 1/2 mile novice grade 1 is the Challow, at Newbury, on the 30th.
Report duffy December 18, 2023 8:22 PM GMT
The race that no one with any pretension on winning at the festival wants to win. Grin
Report strontium December 20, 2023 1:01 PM GMT
Not entered, Impossible.
Report impossible123 December 20, 2023 3:10 PM GMT
'strontium' thanks. You're correct. The Formby is a 2m race. I hope Aintree has corrected their website.

I think Hendo wants Nico to ride Willmount in his next race. Any appropriate race in the New Year for him?
Report strontium December 20, 2023 5:42 PM GMT
The only remaining 2 mile novice hurdle listed & pattern races before the Festival are at Haydock on Jan 20th (usually stinking ground), Exeter on Feb 11 (where Hendo usually does run a good one), and Kempton on Feb 24th. So not a lot really. He might well try to find a little race for him somewhere, or he could step up in trip.
Report impossible123 December 20, 2023 9:21 PM GMT
Willmount is running in the Introductory Hurdle race (12:40) at Newbury on 30th Dec.
Report strontium December 21, 2023 12:10 PM GMT
Seen an interview with Hendo whining about how stupid it is that the Tolowrth has been moved to Aintree, because Willmount's owner doesn't want to go to Liverpool on Boxing Day. The bloke seems to think the entire NH calendar should revolve around his convenience. I hope his horses all get stuffed over Christmas.
Report Bentring December 21, 2023 1:11 PM GMT
What about the turkey Laugh
Report strontium December 21, 2023 1:21 PM GMT
I hope his turkey remains unstuffed.
Report impossible123 December 21, 2023 7:10 PM GMT
'strontium', put it down to old age; some elderly can be quite demanding. However, I do not think it was Aintree. I think it's more the day of the race as Nico cannot be 2 places at the same time; I think there ought to be more Gd 1 races up North tbh.
Report strontium December 21, 2023 7:14 PM GMT
Outside the Aintree festival, where there are probably too many, yes.
Report impossible123 December 21, 2023 7:40 PM GMT
The Introductory Hurdle is sponsored by a bookie. The bookies are running horseracing in the UK. As such, they are dictating where and when races are run.

I speak the same lingo as the Junior Minister in Ireland on the Irish Gambling Regulation Bill.

Mr James Browne suggested the Irish Racing Industry was being led by the bookmakers. He also said only about 15 years ago advertising in horseracing events came from non-gambling companies. He said: "I know there's always been gambling with racing but this thing of being solely reliant on gambling companies is a recent event. There's a question mark there of the business sense of ending up with this narrow dependency on one industry. I think you'll find other companies who will want to go into that ad space".

I cannot agree more. The horseracing industry is lazy, and the bookies are exploiting this inadequacy of the industry. The bookies are laughing all the way to the bank using horseracing to facilitate fobt - their no 1 profit maker.
Report strontium December 28, 2023 12:23 PM GMT
Interestingly, Willmount has been declared in the 2 1/2 mile Challow (G1) and Jeriko du Reponet in the introductory hurdle over 2 m.
Report brandyontherocks December 28, 2023 12:52 PM GMT
I saw that, Stron.
Jeriko is incredibly short for what he achieved on the clock first time out.
Report impossible123 December 28, 2023 6:14 PM GMT
'strontium', indeed re: Willmount. As such, his price for this race has gone walkies. I should have known better; Hendo's behaving like Mr Mullins with his charges with old age.

But, unless Willmount has been bought by JP the owner of willmount will undoubtedly prefer this race to the Neptune.
Report impossible123 December 30, 2023 3:20 PM GMT
Willmount went from going very well to backpedalling in a matter of strides. Either he ran out of puff over this 2m 4f trip or something was amiss. I think The Neptune is less likely than The Supreme at the moment.
Report brandyontherocks December 30, 2023 5:55 PM GMT
He was beaten far too far out for it be the trip.
Report duffy January 4, 2024 3:30 PM GMT
Jeriko with two easy wins and from the right trainer and with the right colours sees him pretty short now, unusually the Supreme market is a bit cloudy compared to recent years, Jeriko finished off well last time but was run at a crawl, the mares handicap earlier was miles ahead for much of the race all be it carrying 10lb less, still a mark of 132 is about 20 lbs below what a Supreme winner would usually be although he may well have that in the tank, but we're taking a lot on trust at his current price. He's a little bit of a default leader as the market is desperately searching for something to grab hold off and as said his connections provide this but there must be some value elsewhere.

With the paucity of real contenders grabbing hold of the market I think that it is worth taking the 8/1 on A Dream To Share and taking the punt that he can hurdle and there are no more setbacks, he did win the bumper and followed it up in Ireland, he's the one that we know can do it on the big stage already, he gave the impression with his big bumper wins of him being a strong stayer at two miles, finishing off very well, typically something that is ideally suited to the Supreme.

He's due to appear soon and any kind of good performance will see his price chopped, we also know that Mcmanus doesn't mind having two market leaders in this race.
Report impossible123 January 7, 2024 9:09 PM GMT
Any update on Willmount?
Report strontium January 11, 2024 7:29 PM GMT
Any news on It's For Me? Taken a big walk in the market, and not entered for the DRF.
Report cobra sam January 12, 2024 2:22 PM GMT
It’s for me had a setback…struggling to make chelts,,hoping for punchestown…read that on X
Report strontium January 12, 2024 6:05 PM GMT
Thanks Cobra, shame.
Report saxon farm February 24, 2024 6:38 PM GMT
Jeriko Du Rochet is a knocking ew bet at 9/1 with C*ral, after what Lump Sum did today.
Report duffy February 25, 2024 3:28 AM GMT
The best way for Mullins to win both races is to run Ballyburn in the longer race, but IMO, as much as he wants to win both races he really doesn't want to miss the Supreme, even if Ballyburn wins the Baring race. I reckon he won't trust Tullyhill to be his main hope in the Supreme, his jumping is just too bad, even the last twice when he had things his own way he was big and clumsy at too many and on the first day when he didn't have it his own way he steadied himself into practically every hurdle.

Regardless of whether Tullyhill only has the Supreme as an entry Mullins runs what he thinks is his best horse in the Supreme and that's Ballyburn.
Report Deptford February 25, 2024 12:45 PM GMT
Nothing wrong with jumping last time, just watched again, very impressive, rest of field under the cosh before home turn
Report Hibore February 26, 2024 7:38 AM GMT
Ballyburn seems a certainty to be in Supreme looking at exchange. Was something confirmed in a festival preview night ?
Report unclepuncle February 26, 2024 8:21 PM GMT
Ground will be key to Mullins decision and, although not at all reliable this far out, the current long range forecasts are suggesting it might be dry and sunny from the weekend before the festival and through it.
Report paulo47 February 27, 2024 12:03 PM GMT
Its a bit silly , but I really like Mistergif , Limerick performance on a ploughed field was excellent , jumping superbly and full of running at the line . Mullins also had 2/1 shot in race (with 50k bumper second form ) obviously an unfit (haha ) tailed off beaten 80 odd lengths , but fit enough to win a gambled on Punchestown maiden with first two well clear next time out . Mistergif only moderate on flat in France over middle distance and who knows what on better ground but interesting .
Report strontium February 27, 2024 12:51 PM GMT
Good spot Paulo. Only 20/1, so someone likes it. Just the sort of horse Mullins would have put in the County before the rules changed.
Report unclepuncle March 1, 2024 7:33 AM GMT
Betting on here over last 24 hours strongly suggesting that Ballyburn is heading for Supreme with Mystical Power switching to Ballymore.
Report impossible123 March 1, 2024 12:55 PM GMT
I think Mystical Power (assuming he runs) and Jeriko Du Reponet are on backable prices now. Unless one has inside info or related to the two front-runners of Mr Mullins I'd not touch them at these prices. Tbh I do not even know who their owner/s is/are.
Report impossible123 March 1, 2024 3:08 PM GMT
It looks like Mystical Power ius toast here. He's drifted out to 25 here.
Report impossible123 March 1, 2024 6:12 PM GMT
Mystical Power has mystically become the fav in The Neptune - by design or mystic?
Report ImSoLuckyLucky! March 2, 2024 12:43 PM GMT
Report impossible123 March 5, 2024 6:41 PM GMT
A change of sentiment/fortune for backers of Mystical Power. He's back into 5.6 from 25 (here). It seems the big owners have had their way; Ballyburn has drifted from near odds-on (fav) to 3.75 (here) despite beating Slade Steel an easy 7l over 2m.
Report sageform March 10, 2024 8:19 PM GMT
Mystical Power is by Galileo out of Annie Power and is owned by Magnier, McManus and Ricci. So quite a few things in his favour. Unbeaten in 3 races but yet to take on anything top class. Tullyhill would seem to have just the better form and is owned by the Thompsons. Tullyhill is also the choice of Townend. Mistergif is the dark one.
Report eric_morris March 10, 2024 9:11 PM GMT
Mystical Power has the look of a flat horse being asked to jump hurdles at speed. Will the jumping hold up long enough to use the gears he has and has he the strength for the hill are the questions
Report FOYLESWAR March 10, 2024 9:29 PM GMT
i know the hendo yard have been through a lean spell but that has helped jericos price and he can be backed ew , with ballyburn out the way he is my selection around 8/1 will do for me !
Report strontium March 10, 2024 9:49 PM GMT
Slade Steel will do for me.
Report Mister Westsound March 11, 2024 7:47 AM GMT
After the rain overnight and heavy rain now forecast tomorrow Slade Steel liely to shorten considerably
Report sageform March 11, 2024 8:45 AM GMT
Tullyhill has been steadily backed this weekend. Cheveley Park, Townend, Mullins. All of the stars aligned. His improvement (I presume) must be part of the reason why Ballyburn has been shifted to Wednesday
Report impossible123 March 11, 2024 3:50 PM GMT
Jeriko will be ridden by de Boinville; Mystical Power is ridden by Walsh - the retained jock of JP in Ireland. I like both with preference for the latter.
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