Supreme Nov Hurdle

Connells horse is ground dependent
forecast is for rain monday and tuesday
just a heads up.... go NRNB

I watched last year's Triumph again. Il Eatait Temps pulled the jockey's arms out for much of the trip and was still bang there at the last. Over this shorter trip with more experience, he must have a big chance.

I thought he was overcooked last year along with gallopin and dysart dynamo. Willie learnt a lot last year.

I have had a good look at this race now, and think one of the best bets of the week is lurking here.

Facile Vega looked good on his first couple of hurdles starts, but I was struck watching the Future Champions by how markedly their respective actions suggested Il Etait Temps would hugely prefer better ground, and how well suited by bad ground Facile Vega seemed to be.  At the DRF Il Etait Temps seemed to confirm this, and after that it looks like he is finally becoming the horse they expected him to be.  I have him clear on ratings, and think he is the likeliest winner of the race.  He is freely available at 6/1NRNB which looks a fine bet to me.  I make him a 2/1 shot.

I think Diverge, in particular, is interesting, Dark Raven could outrun his price, and Tahmuras is clearly the best of the home team.  Marine Nationale is way too short, and which I would not say can't win, there is no evidence at all to justify the current price.  Clearly it is possible that High Definition can do better.

This looks an awfully thin race, and a BHA rating of 155 would in a typical year be enough to hit the frame at worst.

Who has a rating of 155?

Not taking away from the winner, he’s a very good horse. He’s just got to get his jumping right, he made a mistake at the first again today. He’s a Grade One horse.

“I’ve always thought a lot of him, but he just has to get his jumping right. He got a very cute ride from Danny as well.

“He knew what was going to happen and he just popped him in behind and said ‘I’ll let the two in front have their battle and see if we can pick up the pieces afterwards’ and he surely did.

“They just went too fast in front, the pace was wrong, and Danny had his fractions right.”
Eeeerrrrrmmm hes in the ballymore ?

“All our horses are well entered up and Il Etait Temps will be in the Ballymore as well.” WPM

Il Etait Temps.

Marine Nationale is way too short, and which I would not say can't win,

" there is no evidence at all to justify the current price "

Fairyhouse 4th Dec 2022
Going - Yielding to Soft; Changed to Soft after Race 1. Showery
Royal Bond Novice H´dle (Grade 1) of €85,000.00 4-y-o plus 2m.
1st. Marine Nationale (IRE) 5, b g 11-12 (Barry Connell)
(4:09.8 0.43 secs faster than standrad

It's a game of opinions, of course irishone.  But I don't think the Royal Bond, and teh collateral form of the Lawlors of Naas is anywhere near as strong as it is some years.  And i can't have him that short simply on the strength of that run.  I'd have him about 5/1, which you might yet get on the day. But I could not be tempted at 7/2 or there abouts.

Agree with Muse, shocking price.Took an age for Marine Nationale to catch Irish Point in the Royal Bond. Irish Point was struggling after 3  Hurdles in the Tattersals Grade 1 @ DRF and finished 16 lengths behind Il Etait Temps. On that form Marine has a mountain climb. Promising horse with plenty of potential, But the price is so wrong. Laying the front 2 @ 11/10 the pair is the lay of the meeting .

I'm seeing 148 for Il Etait Temps

He was rated 155 - look at the weights for the County. I guess 148 is his Irish mark?

Of course it's his Irish mark what other Mark would it have next to it when it's trained in Ireland,that won't change just because it is entered in great Britain if would be too confusing

No need to be rude old son.

Muse

when Connell shouts you listen mate

155 rating ?
Ratings are bollux lads ...never look at them
thoroughbreds change with the seasons.... ratings dont
Asterion Forlonge was 155 came 4th
More holes than a hedgehogs lilo

I wasn't being rude Stront.

Apologies if you thought I was.

But thanks for info

You weren't Brandy, Bentring was.

Oh, OK.

I cant see posts from Bentring.

I can't see posts from Bentring! Apologies for being rude lmfao...so what was it you thought strontium found rude...and strontium how was I being rude...just pointing the obvious that Irish racing is covered by IHRB so why would there be a BHA mark next to it ...is this what this place is all about cliques...Well brandy you have been fishing with some of your posts looking a response well now you have one with your ridiculous last post.

muse
form isn't the be all and end all
the markets reflect form , and about 35% of favourites win
form doesn't tell you so many things
the ground is the major factor
the course is another
the weather is another
the jockey is pretty important to
.....and if the horse gets the sniff of a mare on the way out
anything could happen
Cheltenham is a different kettle of fish
good luck

Facile Vega is the horse I'm most keen to lay at Cheltenham:
His very easy win in last year's Cheltenham Bumper was in shocking ground and American Mike, who finished second, has been disappointing since.
His subsequent bumper win (on better ground) was not impressive at all.
The way he capitulated last time suggests that he won't be up to it.  I know he went a fast pace early, but was then left with an uncontested lead for most of the remainder of the race until 2 out.
Even if the last race at Leopardstown is ignored, he would still look poor value, unless we get very soft ground.

Facile Vega is poor value but he was odds-on before his latest suicidal pace race. I'd rather back him than Il Etait Temps. I'd be worried if 2nd fav Marine Nationale was trained by Mr Mullins too.

looks like gaelic warrior could be a runner ..very weak in ballymore and money coming here

He'll liven the race up every time he tries to jump into the car park.

yer wouldnt want your selection upsides to his right.

This could upset the apple cart, facile vega fans won’t be happy but it won’t be the first time Mullins has put everyone away

Sir Gerard last year i think was fav for Supreme before being switched  & bolting up in Ballymore after DRF.

Champagne fever another who made the late switch. The man has a lot of convictions plus the owner as well

Vautor possibly the most notorious (different races of course, but same owner/trainer).

Inthepocket a surprise runner

Having spent the afternoon getting familiar with the field , I think that tahmuras looks good . A strong stayer whom travels nicely through his races  , acts on soft , proven class / tolworth winner , unbeaten over hurdles winning twice l/h and 12.0 on the machine . Nicholls yard is in great form , he says that tahmuras " is in the same mould as al ferof and noland strong stayers who both won this and is in top shape " Most punters will be looking out for mullins and writing off paul down to the stats . Write tahmuras off at your peril ! Best of luck

The breeding has evolved since those animals,hardly world beaters

Marine Nationale,the last time he run he beat Irish Point,
that won today but was getting 9LB from the rnr up.Has been
btn in his 2 previous runs before today.That form of Marine
Nationale could be a bit suspect.

cant believe hes so short Penzance. Irish Point only got caught on the post by Marine in barone. Yet he went to DRF and was taken of his feet and was 7 lengths behind Inthepocket & Dark Raven who are 20s and32s on here repectively & 16 lengths behind Il Et Temps whos a bigger price.Supposedly needs decent ground . How hes 5.4 ish beggars belief.

You mean the Royal Bond geoff Barney is only the bookie sponsor

hoping willies are spot on today
first four in this would be a gas

Report•Quote•Block Useririshone • March 7, 2023 7:42 PM GMT
Muse

when Connell shouts you listen mate

Wnrs
  wd
   GL.
Must admit through Irish Point thought that had a bit to do
to win today.
Good to see someone different on the board though.

The race finished an hour ago and Betfair haven't yet settled the Ante Post market...In contrast the Arkle market is done and dusted.

Willmount was impressive at Newbury today. He was described as "different league" by Hendo in his win. The Tolworth Hurdle would have been next but for being moved to Aintree on Boxing Day which clashes with the King George (Shishkin) at Kempton meaning Nico cannot be at both meetings on the same day.

What an interested dilemma for Nico?

Surely he'd ride Shishkin in that scenario.

I'd think so too. In the past Altior went to the Supreme Trial, and Constitution Hill to The Tolworth prior to Cheltenham Festival.

Willmount is running in the Claremont Novices' Hurdle at Sandown this saturday following the path of Constitution Hill two years ago. No doubt a long odds-on; Nico rides.

Boom or bust tomorrow if Sandown gets the go ahead; Nico is onboard. Otherwise Tolworth at Aintree on Boxing Day (without Nico).

Hendo's not deemed the heavy ground to be suitable - he's pulled out Constitution Hill and Shishkin too. That leaves The Tolworth at Aintree on Boxing Day.

The Tolworth has been renamed The Formby, to add insult to injury.

I guess to reflect the geography of the venue ie from Kingston upon-Thames to Merseyside. Formby? I thought it was named after George Formby!

Other way round - he took his name from the location scrawled on the side of a coal train. Anyway, Henderson is now moaning about the logistics of getting horses to Aintree on Boxing Day....

He is a total nutter