Supreme Nov Hurdle

muse
form isn't the be all and end all
the markets reflect form , and about 35% of favourites win
form doesn't tell you so many things
the ground is the major factor
the course is another
the weather is another
the jockey is pretty important to
.....and if the horse gets the sniff of a mare on the way out
anything could happen
Cheltenham is a different kettle of fish
good luck

Facile Vega is the horse I'm most keen to lay at Cheltenham:
His very easy win in last year's Cheltenham Bumper was in shocking ground and American Mike, who finished second, has been disappointing since.
His subsequent bumper win (on better ground) was not impressive at all.
The way he capitulated last time suggests that he won't be up to it.  I know he went a fast pace early, but was then left with an uncontested lead for most of the remainder of the race until 2 out.
Even if the last race at Leopardstown is ignored, he would still look poor value, unless we get very soft ground.

Facile Vega is poor value but he was odds-on before his latest suicidal pace race. I'd rather back him than Il Etait Temps. I'd be worried if 2nd fav Marine Nationale was trained by Mr Mullins too.

looks like gaelic warrior could be a runner ..very weak in ballymore and money coming here

He'll liven the race up every time he tries to jump into the car park.

yer wouldnt want your selection upsides to his right.

This could upset the apple cart, facile vega fans won’t be happy but it won’t be the first time Mullins has put everyone away

Sir Gerard last year i think was fav for Supreme before being switched  & bolting up in Ballymore after DRF.

Champagne fever another who made the late switch. The man has a lot of convictions plus the owner as well

Vautor possibly the most notorious (different races of course, but same owner/trainer).

Inthepocket a surprise runner

Having spent the afternoon getting familiar with the field , I think that tahmuras looks good . A strong stayer whom travels nicely through his races  , acts on soft , proven class / tolworth winner , unbeaten over hurdles winning twice l/h and 12.0 on the machine . Nicholls yard is in great form , he says that tahmuras " is in the same mould as al ferof and noland strong stayers who both won this and is in top shape " Most punters will be looking out for mullins and writing off paul down to the stats . Write tahmuras off at your peril ! Best of luck

The breeding has evolved since those animals,hardly world beaters

Marine Nationale,the last time he run he beat Irish Point,
that won today but was getting 9LB from the rnr up.Has been
btn in his 2 previous runs before today.That form of Marine
Nationale could be a bit suspect.

cant believe hes so short Penzance. Irish Point only got caught on the post by Marine in barone. Yet he went to DRF and was taken of his feet and was 7 lengths behind Inthepocket & Dark Raven who are 20s and32s on here repectively & 16 lengths behind Il Et Temps whos a bigger price.Supposedly needs decent ground . How hes 5.4 ish beggars belief.

You mean the Royal Bond geoff Barney is only the bookie sponsor

hoping willies are spot on today
first four in this would be a gas

Report•Quote•Block Useririshone • March 7, 2023 7:42 PM GMT
Muse

when Connell shouts you listen mate

Wnrs
  wd
   GL.
Must admit through Irish Point thought that had a bit to do
to win today.
Good to see someone different on the board though.

The race finished an hour ago and Betfair haven't yet settled the Ante Post market...In contrast the Arkle market is done and dusted.

Willmount was impressive at Newbury today. He was described as "different league" by Hendo in his win. The Tolworth Hurdle would have been next but for being moved to Aintree on Boxing Day which clashes with the King George (Shishkin) at Kempton meaning Nico cannot be at both meetings on the same day.

What an interested dilemma for Nico?

Surely he'd ride Shishkin in that scenario.

I'd think so too. In the past Altior went to the Supreme Trial, and Constitution Hill to The Tolworth prior to Cheltenham Festival.

Willmount is running in the Claremont Novices' Hurdle at Sandown this saturday following the path of Constitution Hill two years ago. No doubt a long odds-on; Nico rides.

Boom or bust tomorrow if Sandown gets the go ahead; Nico is onboard. Otherwise Tolworth at Aintree on Boxing Day (without Nico).

Hendo's not deemed the heavy ground to be suitable - he's pulled out Constitution Hill and Shishkin too. That leaves The Tolworth at Aintree on Boxing Day.

The Tolworth has been renamed The Formby, to add insult to injury.

I guess to reflect the geography of the venue ie from Kingston upon-Thames to Merseyside. Formby? I thought it was named after George Formby!

Other way round - he took his name from the location scrawled on the side of a coal train. Anyway, Henderson is now moaning about the logistics of getting horses to Aintree on Boxing Day....

He is a total nutter

He’s not punter friendly,,,,the ITV crew think the sun shines out of his rear end

I think Hendo actually believes horseracing revolves around him, and not the other way round. Mr Mullins makes multiple entries for his charges. Imagine Hendo has the same number of star charges. The punters will be led a merry-go-round on virtually every one of them even before Cheltenham.

Mullins after stating that he is considering sending El Fabiolo to Ascot

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5c__-8KKbcE

CH ran in it last year HEAVY
No issues
This year ..... same situ Henderson pulls it

Hendo intimated at the backend of last season a "discussion" with owner of CH about a possible reroute to fences. However, he stated later it was not even discussed. I think all this was for the benefit of his bookie sponsor. I believe (I cannot be totally precise) he informed punters on his sponsor's website about Altior non-appearance at a key race against a Nicholl's runner.

In the future I'd like ask Hendo to keep his gob shut, and to allow punters to risk their money without his constant pontification about his star charges race plan.

And, may I ask Shishkin without a prior race before the King George is a 'lay' for a possible non-starter - whilst under orders on track or Hendo's last minute wimp not to run eg ground/blood count/etc.

There was a Welsh Grand National trial run on Saturday, if that can be run 2 weeks before that slog why can't a 2 mile hurdler manage it, especially one that would have barely come off the snaff??

Hendo is a creature of habit more so now than ever. I hope Hendo makes an effort of running Willmount at Aintree on Boxing Day. As for Constitution Hill I believe he does not need a prep prior to the X'mas hurdle; he's a seasoned campaigner, and has rating in his favour massively.

It was the sensible thing to do on Saturday to scratch Constitution Hill.

Do not understand what all the fuss is about.

The Formby (Tolworth) at Aintree is a 2m 4f race; the Tolworth was a 2m race. Will Willmount head there now?

Don't know where you saw that Impossible, it's 2 miles and half a furlong.

Aintree website: start time (13:05); distance 2m 4f

Sorry 'strontium' I was looking at the Grand national Meeting. Sorry, old age!

No. I was correct 1st time. It's Boxing Day schedule: time (13:05); distance 2m 4f.

It's given as 2 miles 103 yards on the BHA fixtures site and in the pattern book.

The 2 1/2 mile novice grade 1 is the Challow, at Newbury, on the 30th.

The race that no one with any pretension on winning at the festival wants to win.

Not entered, Impossible.

'strontium' thanks. You're correct. The Formby is a 2m race. I hope Aintree has corrected their website.

I think Hendo wants Nico to ride Willmount in his next race. Any appropriate race in the New Year for him?

The only remaining 2 mile novice hurdle listed & pattern races before the Festival are at Haydock on Jan 20th (usually stinking ground), Exeter on Feb 11 (where Hendo usually does run a good one), and Kempton on Feb 24th. So not a lot really. He might well try to find a little race for him somewhere, or he could step up in trip.

Willmount is running in the Introductory Hurdle race (12:40) at Newbury on 30th Dec.

Seen an interview with Hendo whining about how stupid it is that the Tolowrth has been moved to Aintree, because Willmount's owner doesn't want to go to Liverpool on Boxing Day. The bloke seems to think the entire NH calendar should revolve around his convenience. I hope his horses all get stuffed over Christmas.

What about the turkey

I hope his turkey remains unstuffed.

'strontium', put it down to old age; some elderly can be quite demanding. However, I do not think it was Aintree. I think it's more the day of the race as Nico cannot be 2 places at the same time; I think there ought to be more Gd 1 races up North tbh.

Outside the Aintree festival, where there are probably too many, yes.

The Introductory Hurdle is sponsored by a bookie. The bookies are running horseracing in the UK. As such, they are dictating where and when races are run.

I speak the same lingo as the Junior Minister in Ireland on the Irish Gambling Regulation Bill.

Mr James Browne suggested the Irish Racing Industry was being led by the bookmakers. He also said only about 15 years ago advertising in horseracing events came from non-gambling companies. He said: "I know there's always been gambling with racing but this thing of being solely reliant on gambling companies is a recent event. There's a question mark there of the business sense of ending up with this narrow dependency on one industry. I think you'll find other companies who will want to go into that ad space".

I cannot agree more. The horseracing industry is lazy, and the bookies are exploiting this inadequacy of the industry. The bookies are laughing all the way to the bank using horseracing to facilitate fobt - their no 1 profit maker.

Interestingly, Willmount has been declared in the 2 1/2 mile Challow (G1) and Jeriko du Reponet in the introductory hurdle over 2 m.

I saw that, Stron.
Jeriko is incredibly short for what he achieved on the clock first time out.

'strontium', indeed re: Willmount. As such, his price for this race has gone walkies. I should have known better; Hendo's behaving like Mr Mullins with his charges with old age.

But, unless Willmount has been bought by JP the owner of willmount will undoubtedly prefer this race to the Neptune.

Willmount went from going very well to backpedalling in a matter of strides. Either he ran out of puff over this 2m 4f trip or something was amiss. I think The Neptune is less likely than The Supreme at the moment.

He was beaten far too far out for it be the trip.

Jeriko with two easy wins and from the right trainer and with the right colours sees him pretty short now, unusually the Supreme market is a bit cloudy compared to recent years, Jeriko finished off well last time but was run at a crawl, the mares handicap earlier was miles ahead for much of the race all be it carrying 10lb less, still a mark of 132 is about 20 lbs below what a Supreme winner would usually be although he may well have that in the tank, but we're taking a lot on trust at his current price. He's a little bit of a default leader as the market is desperately searching for something to grab hold off and as said his connections provide this but there must be some value elsewhere.

With the paucity of real contenders grabbing hold of the market I think that it is worth taking the 8/1 on A Dream To Share and taking the punt that he can hurdle and there are no more setbacks, he did win the bumper and followed it up in Ireland, he's the one that we know can do it on the big stage already, he gave the impression with his big bumper wins of him being a strong stayer at two miles, finishing off very well, typically something that is ideally suited to the Supreme.

He's due to appear soon and any kind of good performance will see his price chopped, we also know that Mcmanus doesn't mind having two market leaders in this race.

Any update on Willmount?

Any news on It's For Me? Taken a big walk in the market, and not entered for the DRF.

It’s for me had a setback…struggling to make chelts,,hoping for punchestown…read that on X

Thanks Cobra, shame.

Jeriko Du Rochet is a knocking ew bet at 9/1 with C*ral, after what Lump Sum did today.

The best way for Mullins to win both races is to run Ballyburn in the longer race, but IMO, as much as he wants to win both races he really doesn't want to miss the Supreme, even if Ballyburn wins the Baring race. I reckon he won't trust Tullyhill to be his main hope in the Supreme, his jumping is just too bad, even the last twice when he had things his own way he was big and clumsy at too many and on the first day when he didn't have it his own way he steadied himself into practically every hurdle.

Regardless of whether Tullyhill only has the Supreme as an entry Mullins runs what he thinks is his best horse in the Supreme and that's Ballyburn.

Nothing wrong with jumping last time, just watched again, very impressive, rest of field under the cosh before home turn

Ballyburn seems a certainty to be in Supreme looking at exchange. Was something confirmed in a festival preview night ?

Ground will be key to Mullins decision and, although not at all reliable this far out, the current long range forecasts are suggesting it might be dry and sunny from the weekend before the festival and through it.

Its a bit silly , but I really like Mistergif , Limerick performance on a ploughed field was excellent , jumping superbly and full of running at the line . Mullins also had 2/1 shot in race (with 50k bumper second form ) obviously an unfit (haha ) tailed off beaten 80 odd lengths , but fit enough to win a gambled on Punchestown maiden with first two well clear next time out . Mistergif only moderate on flat in France over middle distance and who knows what on better ground but interesting .

Good spot Paulo. Only 20/1, so someone likes it. Just the sort of horse Mullins would have put in the County before the rules changed.

Betting on here over last 24 hours strongly suggesting that Ballyburn is heading for Supreme with Mystical Power switching to Ballymore.

I think Mystical Power (assuming he runs) and Jeriko Du Reponet are on backable prices now. Unless one has inside info or related to the two front-runners of Mr Mullins I'd not touch them at these prices. Tbh I do not even know who their owner/s is/are.

It looks like Mystical Power ius toast here. He's drifted out to 25 here.

Mystical Power has mystically become the fav in The Neptune - by design or mystic?

MEG!!!

A change of sentiment/fortune for backers of Mystical Power. He's back into 5.6 from 25 (here). It seems the big owners have had their way; Ballyburn has drifted from near odds-on (fav) to 3.75 (here) despite beating Slade Steel an easy 7l over 2m.

Mystical Power is by Galileo out of Annie Power and is owned by Magnier, McManus and Ricci. So quite a few things in his favour. Unbeaten in 3 races but yet to take on anything top class. Tullyhill would seem to have just the better form and is owned by the Thompsons. Tullyhill is also the choice of Townend. Mistergif is the dark one.

Mystical Power has the look of a flat horse being asked to jump hurdles at speed. Will the jumping hold up long enough to use the gears he has and has he the strength for the hill are the questions

i know the hendo yard have been through a lean spell but that has helped jericos price and he can be backed ew , with ballyburn out the way he is my selection around 8/1 will do for me !

Slade Steel will do for me.

After the rain overnight and heavy rain now forecast tomorrow Slade Steel liely to shorten considerably

Tullyhill has been steadily backed this weekend. Cheveley Park, Townend, Mullins. All of the stars aligned. His improvement (I presume) must be part of the reason why Ballyburn has been shifted to Wednesday

Jeriko will be ridden by de Boinville; Mystical Power is ridden by Walsh - the retained jock of JP in Ireland. I like both with preference for the latter.

Surprisingly no comment about the performance of Salvator Mundi at Punchestown yesterday. He's 4/1f for this race. I think but for his trainer, he'd be nearer to 12/1 rather than 4/1; his jumping was sloppy and amateurish.

Yes, the jumping has been poor from a few near the top of the market. The DRF will tell us a great deal, but also take the value from whatever looks best. It might be an under-par renewal this year. If I had to pick a couple now, they would be Romeo Coolio and Workahead.

Can see salvator running from the front in supreme and only thing to pass him would be The yellow clay but seemingly going to sun alliance

I can't get past Salvator being hammered in the Triumph.

Put all of Willie Mullins horses in a hat and pick one.

I put £5 on Redemption Day on here at 90/1 and now the price has crashed to 31/1. I must know something, I don't know about. It will probably not even run. Laugh

I will be hoping in the first at Navan tomorrow . Willie called Ballygunner Castle a stayer , but has run him over min distance , am averaging close to 100 so fingers xd. No loose horses this time .

A bit of money for both BC and de Bromhead's horse. Should be an interesting race.

At least with big prices it doesnt cost so much !

An Irish winner looks to be guaranteed after Royal Infantry's dismal run yesterday.

Kopek Des Bordes is all the rage for this, even his trainer is very sweet on him; his price 1/1. Unless Lulamba is rerouted here he looks the real deal.

Kopek Des Bordes (1/1), Sir Gino (4/6) and Constitution Hill (8/13) are a 5/1 treble.

Treble is less than 9/2

Talking about the  Supreme, Turners Novices’ Hurdle and Albert Bartlet, Henderson said: “To be honest, I don’t think we have (got any top novices). Not of that calibre. We’ve some nice novices, probably staying ones, and some very nice fillies. I think our girls are better than the boys this year. But we probably wouldn’t have a Supreme horse, I must admit. Possibly that’s why Lulamba was in there, we were trying to find one!”