ballymore novices hurdle 2.5 m

A hard race to figure out with so many destined for other races. Given that Facile Vega is extemely doubful to rum in this andMarne National is only entered for the Supreme, my money is on Champ Kiely. He was 4 lengths 2nd to NM over 2 miles, but then won his next race at 2.5 miles. So the Ballymore seems the logical choice. 14s on here or 7s NRNB, seems a fair enough price.

I have a few thoughts, but not so sure they will be of much use.

At the end of last season I backed American Mike which seemed reasonable at the time. He has had a pretty disastrous season. It is very hard to know what ability he now has. He was pulled out of the Dublin Racing Festival at the last moment. When he flopped last time he didn't look as if he wanted a yard further, so this looks the right race if he were to run anywhere. For me that's doubtful. I then backed Inothewayurthinkin. He disappointed, and wasn't even entered. I guess he might end up in the Martin Pipe, but JP hasn't let me know. I have Hermes Allen backed for the right race, but that will turn out to be the 'wrong' race because Nicholls is out to show people that he can actually win this race. As far as he is concerned you would think winning any Festival race would be good. I suspect he will be disappointed again. Cobden saying the horse could win over two miles after he had won an absolute slog in the Challow was just about the daftest comment from a jock I have heard all season. Yes, he could beat rubbish over two miles, but he wouldn't be anywhere near a Grade 1 horse at that trip. That's the problem, history would suggest the Ballymore is a speed test. Does Nicholls see this horse as a Gold Cup or a Champion Hurdle horse? The best form he can offer up relative to this trip is beating Music Drive. That isn't close to being good enough.

There are a lot of horses entered who also would probably be better off elsewhere. Assuming he has recovered from his fall, if I had to throw a dart at an outsider it would be Landrake. I think Spirit Of Legend would probably have outpaced him last time over a shorter trip, but I don't think that would have been any disgrace. He is best priced 66/1 (50/1NRNB), but I will wait before wasting any more money.

American Mike is enterd in a 2 miler at Navan on Sunday, so we should know more then.

4 out of the last 5 favs have won and the biggest price winner in the last 10 years was 14/1, so not really a race for long shots, or so it would seem.

The Monksfield that AM didn't get home in was strongly run too, I actually like the winner Dawn Rising for the AB, don't know if he has a problem as he didn't run in the DRF but he's 25's and will relish the 3 miles IMO.

I’m on Dark Raven at 220/1 for £4 but can’t see him being a feature, doubt he’ll even run.
Impaire et Passé is a steering job whichever race, Supreme or Ballymore, he goes for imo.

Had a glance at that race on Sunday, and wouldn't be at all certain American Mike would run. I know it is Navan, but it looks as if a fair few would want a longer trip.

The Challow form has been franked numerous times and he showed he handles the track here in the autumn so I can’t see a lot wrong with Hermes Allen. Looks to have loads of speed, stays well and plenty of improvement to come which he’ll obviously need.

The Challow form has been franked numerous times and he showed he handles the track here in the autumn so I can’t see a lot wrong with Hermes Allen. Looks to have loads of speed, stays well and plenty of improvement to come which he’ll obviously need.

The Challow form has been franked numerous times and he showed he handles the track here in the autumn so I can’t see a lot wrong with Hermes Allen. Looks to have loads of speed, stays well and plenty of improvement to come which he’ll obviously need.

The Challow form has been franked numerous times and he showed he handles the track here in the autumn so I can’t see a lot wrong with Hermes Allen. Looks to have loads of speed, stays well and plenty of improvement to come which he’ll obviously need.

Looks like a booster for the Challow form.

Looks like he was awakened by the Rooster

Hermes Allen is the nap of the meeting for me. I thought his Challow run was outstanding. Had them cooked half a mile from home, and most of those behind have won since. Also has Cheltenham form.

I think Hermes Allen is very strong too,if you compare the performance through the earlier handicap winner on the day who is also very much on the improve I think you can make an argument that he is even better than the 150 that he actually rated.

Impaire et Passe is still a relative mystery, he's won a couple of steadily run races with nothing boosting the form, but like I said he's a mystery and could be anything, we just don't know, but he's Irish, he's Mullins and there seems to be an underlying theme surrounding him that he has that WOW performance just waiting to be unleashed...however his current price in relation to Hermes Allen suggests he has already achieved it to a degree.

There are Galway winners in this race lads always a good guide if it goes soft\hvy. Gordon's have also won at galway and he holds a good hand.

I have backed Champ Keily since he won here , went out to 16s on here at one stage. Willie spoke volumes about that performance after the race. The ground was officially good that day but the weather was overcast with showers, keily sprinted up the hill and changed stride twice.

If Firn Footings gets in from Gordons stable , and its soft\heavy .........on Wednesday lunchtime !

You can back Firm Footings @1000 on here.
Is he a rnr?

no we dont know yet do we , 65 stilk in it , whats the limit 25 ? I'm not sure .

22 maximum field,can see Elliott stepping Irish Field back
up in trip for this.

unclepuncle 09 Feb 23 13:50

Impaire et Passé is a steering job whichever race, Supreme or Ballymore, he goes for imo.

You are welcome.