Cheltenham Festival
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this looks wide open facile vega still prominet at the head of the betting after his very dissipointing run on sunday no way could i back him at the current price ,marine nationale prob has the best form in the book but still too short for me a few of these may go elsewhere supreme albert barlett or the festival handicaps .impaire et passe has looked impressive on debut and upped in class at punchestown when beating the model kingdom and comes into the could be anything bracket . i like to play at bigger prices and impaire e ps stablemate and so called second string going by the betting DARK RAVEN ran a stormer in 3rd behind il etait temps that one looks to be supreme bound, he looked to be in with every chance turning in at leopardstown but kept on without threatening the winner the step up in trip should suit and a big price on here average around 44/1 looks big to me of course he could go elsewhere and has entries in this and the supreme this looks his trip around 16/1 nrnb for those who prefer the safer option he could be worth a crack each way.
selection DARK RAVEN 16/1 EACH WAY NRNB OR AROUND 40S ON HERE WIN AND PLACE GOOD LUCK OPINIONS ENCOURAGED.
selection DARK RAVEN 16/1 EACH WAY NRNB OR AROUND 40S ON HERE WIN AND PLACE GOOD LUCK OPINIONS ENCOURAGED.
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A hard race to figure out with so many destined for other races. Given that Facile Vega is extemely doubful to rum in this andMarne National is only entered for the Supreme, my money is on Champ Kiely. He was 4 lengths 2nd to NM over 2 miles, but then won his next race at 2.5 miles. So the Ballymore seems the logical choice. 14s on here or 7s NRNB, seems a fair enough price.
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I have a few thoughts, but not so sure they will be of much use.
At the end of last season I backed American Mike which seemed reasonable at the time. He has had a pretty disastrous season. It is very hard to know what ability he now has. He was pulled out of the Dublin Racing Festival at the last moment. When he flopped last time he didn't look as if he wanted a yard further, so this looks the right race if he were to run anywhere. For me that's doubtful. I then backed Inothewayurthinkin. He disappointed, and wasn't even entered. I guess he might end up in the Martin Pipe, but JP hasn't let me know. I have Hermes Allen backed for the right race, but that will turn out to be the 'wrong' race because Nicholls is out to show people that he can actually win this race. As far as he is concerned you would think winning any Festival race would be good. I suspect he will be disappointed again. Cobden saying the horse could win over two miles after he had won an absolute slog in the Challow was just about the daftest comment from a jock I have heard all season. Yes, he could beat rubbish over two miles, but he wouldn't be anywhere near a Grade 1 horse at that trip. That's the problem, history would suggest the Ballymore is a speed test. Does Nicholls see this horse as a Gold Cup or a Champion Hurdle horse? The best form he can offer up relative to this trip is beating Music Drive. That isn't close to being good enough. There are a lot of horses entered who also would probably be better off elsewhere. Assuming he has recovered from his fall, if I had to throw a dart at an outsider it would be Landrake. I think Spirit Of Legend would probably have outpaced him last time over a shorter trip, but I don't think that would have been any disgrace. He is best priced 66/1 (50/1NRNB), but I will wait before wasting any more money. |
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American Mike is enterd in a 2 miler at Navan on Sunday, so we should know more then.
4 out of the last 5 favs have won and the biggest price winner in the last 10 years was 14/1, so not really a race for long shots, or so it would seem. |
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The Monksfield that AM didn't get home in was strongly run too, I actually like the winner Dawn Rising for the AB, don't know if he has a problem as he didn't run in the DRF but he's 25's and will relish the 3 miles IMO.
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I’m on Dark Raven at 220/1 for £4 but can’t see him being a feature, doubt he’ll even run.
Impaire et Passé is a steering job whichever race, Supreme or Ballymore, he goes for imo. |
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Had a glance at that race on Sunday, and wouldn't be at all certain American Mike would run. I know it is Navan, but it looks as if a fair few would want a longer trip.
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The Challow form has been franked numerous times and he showed he handles the track here in the autumn so I can’t see a lot wrong with Hermes Allen. Looks to have loads of speed, stays well and plenty of improvement to come which he’ll obviously need.
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The Challow form has been franked numerous times and he showed he handles the track here in the autumn so I can’t see a lot wrong with Hermes Allen. Looks to have loads of speed, stays well and plenty of improvement to come which he’ll obviously need.
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The Challow form has been franked numerous times and he showed he handles the track here in the autumn so I can’t see a lot wrong with Hermes Allen. Looks to have loads of speed, stays well and plenty of improvement to come which he’ll obviously need.
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The Challow form has been franked numerous times and he showed he handles the track here in the autumn so I can’t see a lot wrong with Hermes Allen. Looks to have loads of speed, stays well and plenty of improvement to come which he’ll obviously need.
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Looks like a booster for the Challow form.
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Looks like he was awakened by the Rooster
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Hermes Allen is the nap of the meeting for me. I thought his Challow run was outstanding. Had them cooked half a mile from home, and most of those behind have won since. Also has Cheltenham form.
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I think Hermes Allen is very strong too,if you compare the performance through the earlier handicap winner on the day who is also very much on the improve I think you can make an argument that he is even better than the 150 that he actually rated.
Impaire et Passe is still a relative mystery, he's won a couple of steadily run races with nothing boosting the form, but like I said he's a mystery and could be anything, we just don't know, but he's Irish, he's Mullins and there seems to be an underlying theme surrounding him that he has that WOW performance just waiting to be unleashed...however his current price in relation to Hermes Allen suggests he has already achieved it to a degree. |
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There are Galway winners in this race lads always a good guide if it goes soft\hvy. Gordon's have also won at galway and he holds a good hand.
I have backed Champ Keily since he won here , went out to 16s on here at one stage. Willie spoke volumes about that performance after the race. The ground was officially good that day but the weather was overcast with showers, keily sprinted up the hill and changed stride twice. |
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If Firn Footings gets in from Gordons stable , and its soft\heavy .........on Wednesday lunchtime !
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You can back Firm Footings @1000 on here.
Is he a rnr? |
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no we dont know yet do we , 65 stilk in it , whats the limit 25 ? I'm not sure .
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22 maximum field,can see Elliott stepping Irish Field back
up in trip for this. |
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unclepuncle 09 Feb 23 13:50
Impaire et Passé is a steering job whichever race, Supreme or Ballymore, he goes for imo. You are welcome.  |