Cheltenham Festival

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02 Jan 23 17:25
Date Joined: 23 Jun 07
| Topic/replies: 3,358 | Blogger: Hibore's blog
Updated from nocturnal last year.

9/13 Aged 6-8
4/13 Top 3 betting
3/13Won lto
12/13 Ran within 61 days
6/13 Ran in qualifier lto
11/13 min 2 runs 23-25f
13/13 min 6 hurdle runs
9 / 13min 2 hurdle wins
11/13 rated 138 or above
11/13 min 3 runs current season
5/13 won current season
2/13 won qualifier and final
6/7 Irish trained
5/7 Ran in leopardstown qualifier
16/22  11-02 or below
7/23 won lto

One of the established Festival handicaps.

Arguably always has that "punters graveyard" look to it.

max field 24,run on the new course over 3 miles.

Bottom weight last 7 runnings ranged between 134-137 OR.
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Report Hibore January 2, 2023 5:43 PM GMT
One of my favourite races to try to unravel. With Hills going NRNB it allows you to try to find some value if any.
The current favs are Maxxum who bolted up over Christmas and Shoot first who landed a huge gamble in October at Cheltenham.
With the Stayers Hurdle looking extremely open I think you could see some of the field jump into that race rather than give lumps of weight away in this.

Is there a place to see list of remaining qualifiers and any thoughts at this early stage ?
Report ambush January 2, 2023 9:09 PM GMT
hibore,p.power news has a list of dates , google pertemps news fom pp. think the pertemps is the longest sponser of the festival. a piece of useless information.
Report nocturnal January 3, 2023 1:05 AM GMT
Thoughts ... The best day of the 4 if your looking for a starting point to Festival clues.

Three chases over roughly 2m 4f,Turners slightly shorter,two staying hurdles over the same trip on the same ground.

The Pertemps and Stayers arguably look totally different races on paper,with the weight difference in the former the tricky part.

However,the nature of both tends to see truly run races,unlike some of the qualifiers for both races.

Comparing times from both,in itself,can be where the fun starts,both for following festivals and other staying hurdles through the season.

Example .... Look no further than the 2021 stayers,the time difference put up by Flooring Porter I had down as exceptional,nothing came close in the previous 10 runnings of both races.

Getting horses there in the same kind of form is a whole different ball game,thats the % as punters we have no control over.

Starting point for Pertemps in recent years has to be the two Irish qualifiers,the Leopardstown one especially,not a huge surprise given the nature of that track.

That might also be a starting point,finding those qualifiers run on stiffer tracks,is there a correlation with winners in the Final?

No doubt,one of the toughest handicaps all season to work out,along with a few others during the week.
Report sageform January 4, 2023 9:08 PM GMT
I haven't really looked very hard at the horses that have qualified but my abiding rule over the years for both the Pertemps and the Stayers is winning form over 3 miles. As I mentioned about the Long Walk, only Champ and Paisley Park had Grade 1 form over the trip and at no stage did any of the others look likely to win apart from Goshen who ran really well on his debut at the trip. Pedigrees also play a part. Rubhahunish and Freetown were closely related through their sires Darshaan and Shirley Heights and both won the race up the final hill. Willie Wumpkins won the Pertemps 3 times because he stayed. The weight was secondary. A true run 3 miles will sort out 90% of the runners as non stayers.
Report Hibore January 4, 2023 10:17 PM GMT
I totally agree Sage. I’m very sweet on An Tailliur following his 3rd at Cheltenham in October finishing very strongly. If you look at the revised weights with 1st and 2nd Shoot First and Botox Has he’s quite well treated. I wouldn’t be surprised if he rocks up in the Stayers race on Trials day to see if he could mix with the big boys too. Hills 20/1 NRNB EW Pertemps is by far my biggest ante post bet so far. Can’t see him being over 10/1 if he goes there.
Report sageform January 7, 2023 2:49 PM GMT
Shoot First is certainly an early fancy on the basis of a very fast time so anything that finished close to him is a fair shout. Salvador Ziggy was the best horse in the Cheltenham Qualifier but will the handicapper give him a chance?
Report comingupthehill January 21, 2023 12:01 AM GMT
Easily one of the best races at the festival these days,
Big field
No shorties
At least 1 run that reveals horses capability
English on a even footing,due to Irish extra weights
3miles makes sure no unlucky runs.
Hurdles means no unlucky falls

I race punters can get into.
Enjoy it guys,as David Jennings wants it kicked out of festival.

Plus can at least study runners well before hcps declared,as they must of qualified,a lot that qualify don’t have high enough rating,so can predict the entries.

He wants more grade 1.4 runner races with Mullins fav at 1/4 on.
Report Hibore February 22, 2023 10:23 AM GMT
Am I right that the handicap entries published today won’t necessarily be the weights on the day. The Irish horses may find they have 3lb or 5lb more ?
Report Bentring February 22, 2023 4:31 PM GMT
All the English weights will be the same unless something runs at weekend to provide collateral form and a rise in weight b4 Tuesday.
I find Irish hurdlers get more than chasers and if lower rated 120/30 more of an increase than if say 145/55.
I would imagine 120 + up to 10 130/8 + 6/8 140/7+ 5/6 150/5 + 3/5.
Some will have no increase maybe 2nd season novice or discipline.
The lower ihrb rating to the 1st figure usually incurs more of increase so 120 could get 10 where as 127 could get 8.
I have also seen last time out Irish winner's especially over hurdles that have been increased by irhb get a bigger increase by the bha than that of what was imposed by the Irish h'capper
Report Hibore February 22, 2023 5:12 PM GMT
Cheers, hopefully Shoot First gets another 8-10lb Cool
Report Hibore March 5, 2023 8:54 PM GMT
I’m really surprised not many tipsters have missed how well treated An Tailliur is in relation to the top of the market. 7lbs better off for under 3 lengths with Shoot First, 6lbs with Botox Has for 3/4 length and 1lb better off with Salvador Ziggy which he beat 1 length. He was in front of the of the horses 100 yards past the post.

Never out of the frame and goes on both soft and good ground. Was the only horse to give Marie’s Rock a race at Kempton getting only 2lbs over Xmas 2022. However, better ground suits and the further he goes the stronger he stays.
Jonjo has won the Pertemps a few times and I’m sure he rates his chance with this improving 7 year old. We met Jonjo and his wife at Haydock last year when our horse took on An Tailliur. He told us with a twinkle in his eye that he couldn’t see him being beat and he bolted in.

If Shoot First is 4/1 and Salvador Ziggy is 8/1 I couldn’t see how he was still 22/1 5 places NRNB a couple weeks back. I make him a 6/1 or 7/1 max.

I’ve nailed my colours to the mast and gone all in. If he gets a clear round I can see him going very very close especially on the new course.
Report Hibore March 7, 2023 7:44 AM GMT
An Taillur strong support yesterday from 20/1 in places to 12/1 best price now across the board with 10/1 with some bookies. Must have been Paul Kealy pointing out the discrepancy with Shoot First and co on a few Festival previews. Also made it his Nap of the meeting on the Racing Post one.

Maxxum looking a bit dodgy with price drifting out on exchange. Anyone heard anything?
Report strontium March 7, 2023 9:58 AM GMT
Is it significant that Willie Mullins has only one entry in this?
Report Andymca March 7, 2023 10:25 AM GMT
Maxxum got more weight than expected, slight doubt now he might turn up.
Report morpteh mackem March 7, 2023 4:54 PM GMT
An Taillur and Salvador Ziggy tipped up in todays rfo
Report Bentring March 7, 2023 6:28 PM GMT
Maxxum will run and could probably win
Report Hibore March 12, 2023 7:39 PM GMT
Shoot First has gone. What happened there ?
Report ronnie rails March 12, 2023 7:49 PM GMT

nothing mentioned anywhere.

Report penzance March 12, 2023 7:51 PM GMT
Knocked himself yesterday.
Report Hibore March 12, 2023 8:44 PM GMT
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