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nocturnal
04 Mar 22 11:31
Joined:
Date Joined: 14 Jan 05
| Topic/replies: 4,398 | Blogger: nocturnal's blog
9/12  Aged 6-8
4/12  Top 3 betting
3/12  Won lto
11/12  Ran within 61 days
6/12  Ran in qualifier lto
10/12 min 2 runs 23-25f
12/12 min 6 hurdle runs
8/12  min 2 hurdle wins
10/12  rated 138 or above
10/12 min 3 runs current season
5/12  won current season
2/23  won qualifier and final
6/6 Irish trained
5/6  Ran in leopardstown qualifier
16/22  11-02 or below
7/22  won lto
3/31  prev course winners  (2 x prev winners in SDB and BV)
6/6  Wore tongue tie

(Thestatsdontlie / Gaultstats)

One of the established Festival handicaps.

Arguably always has that "punters graveyard" look to it.

53 entries,max field 24,run on the new course over 3 miles.

Bottom weight last 7 runnings ranged between 134-137 OR.

Gordon Elliot has a remarkable record,between 2016-2020 he had 9 runners,all finnished in the first 5 home.

Four of those nine had tongue ties,they finnished 1,1,5,1.

From a handicapping perspective,this years renewal may revolve around one horse.

Sire Du Berlais (OR 155) has a fantastic record on the new course,he has top weight for a reason.

His two victories in this race were both quicker on the clock than that seasons stayers,he carried 11-09 and 11-12 in those renewals,he is a cracking horse come march,has age caught up with him is the burning question.

Find the horse that will beat SDB could be a starting point.

6/10 Runnings of this race were quicker than the stayers,of course the weight difference carried can vary.There are no hard and fast rules,however this race can provide a few clues for the 3m championship hurdle run on same day.

On recent evidence,we only have 12 to sift through,those that ran in both Irish qualifiers.

5 day decs may not shed that much light,normally the 48 hr stage is the time to get stuck into them.

One of my favourite handicaps the entire NH season.

Fire away with any thoughts,always a cracking heat.
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Report cobra sam March 4, 2022 12:53 PM GMT
first of all great write up nocturnal....looks a minefield dosent it..had a dabble on Tullybeg and Winter Fog so far...Alaphillipe been touted around a bit of the uk entries,,,Fergal still not had a winner at the festival i dont think...be nice to see him get one for the locals
Report cobra sam March 4, 2022 2:58 PM GMT
i know its off topic but RIP Shane Warne ,,greatest bowler i ever seen,,shocked hes died so young,,live everyday folks
Report brandyontherocks March 4, 2022 3:39 PM GMT
Very very sad news indeed Cobra.
Not just the greatest bowler but the greatest cricketer in my life time.
Report nocturnal March 4, 2022 3:50 PM GMT
Minefield sounds about right Sam,those first two of yours are both interesting.

Scratching the surface here,just the GE runners alone are all worthy of a second look.

Top two JP runners still in the stayers,both would not look out of place in that race.

Just the 4 runners above 11-0 at present,plenty lower down will have a nice racing weight,including a couple from the GE yard.If the top one has lost a yard of pace,always the chance they can use a claimer,pretty sure he mentioned that when the weights were revealed,which horses is the guesswork.

Shocked to hear about SW,legend in the game,RIP.
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