Cheltenham Festival
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I'm sure champ is a gold cup horse and we might have another
I'm sure champ is a gold cup horse and we might have another
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What "class" should he be in duffy ?
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I’d have thought Elliott would have been delighted having his horse beat the Gold Cup winner 4 lengths around Down Royal. 20/1 is arguably the value angle in the race.
Didn’t look outclassed to me. |
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Irish,
He's in the right class because that's where he has to be, however, being in the right class and possessing the requisite class to win the race are different things, aren't they, it's another way of saying that I don't think he's good enough and I believe that he's too short. |
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The value IMO is 6 and 8 on the 1st and 2nd from last year.
What a race last year was, a thorough test with two horses pulling clear, the winner coming off an unsatisfactory prep, he's a thorough stayer, remember his freakish performance in the AB where he pulled the whole way round!!!, the monster jump at the 2nd last in the GC he wouldn't be suited by DR, was probably unfit and I bet De Bromhead would have been more than happy with the run. Nicholl's would have had Frodon hard fit and Galvin was race fit. |
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Galvin is a National Hunt Chase winner so you could argue he’s demonstrated more stamina than Minella, so DR wouldn’t be the ideal track for him either.
Still not sure how beating a Gold Cup winner who is rated far higher than you by 4 lengths proves you don’t have the class to win a Gold Cup ? De Broomhead said MI goes well fresh and was pretty straight for his reappearance which led to his price being around evens. Either he was completely wrong or Galvin put in a credible run. |
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Galvin is a class one chaser duffy ...what class is a gold cup horse please ?
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The other fellah indo is hard to train and get right. HDB will be well happy with that run.
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Hibore, national winners have demonstrated more stamina too, but it's stamina coupled with the demands of the quality of race that counts and I reckon that Galvin would be found out in a GC but Galvin IS a class one chaser, in the same way that probably most of the runners in a GC are, but they are not all equal are they.
We're looking at the market in November and to me judging by the standard that the front two set in last years race I think their prices are the best value, I see no reason why anything from last year can reverse form and only EA from the novices would interest me as I think that him and MI are the two best horses in training and if he stayed well he'd be a massive threat but both him and Allaho have big questions over the trip and they probably both wouldn't run in the race anyhow, CH and Galvin don't look good enough to me, and well, of course something can jump out of left field but at this stage 6's and 8's look the best options to me. However it's only an opinion, guesswork if you like. |
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Why does envoi dallen interest you duffy,he hasnt proved himself at three miles and the trainer is talking ryanair or queen mother ?
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Duffy, I’m not questioning which horses you think are value or think will win come March (I’m leaning towards APT but have no bets).
I was just asking why you thought “at face value” after Saturday Galvin didn’t have the class to win a gold cup. It’s fine you don’t fancy him whatever he does on the track…it was just a strange comment when he beat Minella quite comfortably. I think your last post explains better. |
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Irish,
He interests me because after being a bit of a doubter through his novice hurdle season I loved his performances as a novice chaser, the way he travels and as a staying chaser he appears to have push button acceleration which looks strange to see, I'm not going to be disheartened at how it went wrong eventually last season, when you listened to Elliott and particularly Russell you do get a strong impression that there is just something extra special that is experienced from him. I'm not bothered what the trainer is saying at this stage with regards targets because although he may indeed run in those shorter races and the speed he shows does strongly suggest a stamina issue might well exist they absolutely must explore the option of a GC and attempt to find out if the trip might suit him as he's just too good a horse not to. |
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Not at that price mate !
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Do you mean that if it was a given that they were going to try the longer trip the market would already have reacted to it and he'd be shorter as they would not want to take any chances with him??? I see what you mean, disappointing though if it turns out that way.
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Henry gets horses distances wrong regularly. He's got APT and Indo for the gold cup.hes got PTKO in the big one on Wednesday , he's got honeysuckle for Tuesday . The one you might consider is the Ryanair ...but we are guessing as usual
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Chantry House did all he needed yesterday. Seems to go better over a longer trip as well.
Form of his last two Grade 1’s as good as anything seen this year with Shan Blue and Fiddlerontheroof. Not a sexy horse but maybe one we should take seriously now. Probably go to Cheltenham in January for Trials day for a proper test. |
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Memories Dawn Run and Buck House,that race yesterday brought a tear to my eye when you laugh so much you cry
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I’m glad Chantry gave you such entertainment
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Bentring
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I'm still unconvinced by Chantry House. His Marsh and Mildmay wins could have been fortuitous given the fall of odds-on Envoi Allen (former) and Espoir De Romay (latter whist infront). However, he'd be better than the enigmatic Santini who'd surprise too if a change in scenery resulted in a change of mental attitude towards horseracing.
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PP offering 33/1 KG and Gold Cup double for Chantry and 16/1 Minella. Seen worse bets if you fancy either today.
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Well that King George threw the Good Cup reckoning above out the window
Problem now is minella may be a spring horse Tornado has good Cheltenham form from a bumper The third and fourth can't do three miles Cheltenham GOLD CUP pace Chantry can't jump at pace ..... Willie must be laughing his bolleaux off |
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Minella Indo seems to be a stone an a half better at Cheltenham than anywhere else. He was a maiden when he won the Albert Bartlett (though admittedly he ran into Allaho in his prep race for that). His form figures last winter were F4 at Leopardstown, then he wins the Gold Cup. He did win a G1 novice hurdle at Punchestown, but other than that, all his decent form is at Cheltenham. Too soon to write him off I'd say, and 10/1 for the GC looks an overreaction.
As for Chantry House, I thought Kempton would not suit him, but I expected a lot better than that and a staying on third or fourth. He was awful today, not quick enough and not in the right head space at all. |
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Very similar to Irish racing now
There are several top class chasers over three miles All capable of winning grade ones No stand out It's all about who turns up on the day |
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Cheltenham Gold Cup
Matched Average Odds Back Galvin for £11.24 @ 49.74 to win £547.84 Odd change comes in handy sometimes on here ! |
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I mentioned 4horses on this thread earlier,wonder how they're getting on now,also the franking of form by other English horses maybe eome day this will work
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Good shout bentring
I think , and it's only my thoughts , haven't heard anyone else say it. Rachel gave frost too much respect. She went for frosts inside straight away attempting to match frodon. Rachel got the ar5e ache when frost took the bend at the end of the back straight and cut her off, then top of the home straight she goes up the inside of frost and frost goes wide off the bend. Rachel is intent on taking frodon on. Frodon gets fired up and battles back and they hit the all weather crossing and indo loses it .....Rachel can't get him back . That's two in a row beaten by frodon and unable to do anything about it. I think she will ride a completely different race in the GC. She will be looking for someone else to take frodon on ...if it runs. |
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It looks likely Hendo will have egg on his face for making such a bold statement about Champ as Champ is an unlikely participant here.
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