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Cheltenham Betting trends

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By:
muse
When: 20 Feb 21 16:44
To be totally honest harry I don't take that much notice of breeding over jumps.  There are certain things I give some weight to when trying to assess the chances of a horse faced with new conditions, though.

I had heard for a long time the old saw about not wanting flat breds in the Supreme.  But what does that mean to an ignoramus like me?  I wouldn't have known what was or wasn't "flat bred".  So I started to look for patterns... 'trends' if you want to call them that.  I thought that the apparent success of these Sadler's Wells sires in the period after the expansion of the festival was quite interesting, albeit field sizes for the Supreme have been relatively robust, unlike the Triumph.

As I said in the above post, this kind of thing could be useful or significant or thought provoking.  And maybe it isn't.  I can't say I have noticed anything similar for any other race.  But for me the key is that this is a race where too many runners have not faced similar conditions before, which is less likely in the case of, say, the Champion Chase.  So in this case I am more likely to be trying to work out why one might improve more than another, because a typical winner of this tends to run to a higher level than it has ever done before, so the form book only gets you so far.

To be honest I find the discussions on here fascinating.  I have never bought one of these trends book or anything like that - I only have what I have noticed myself.  But it is quite clear that there are plenty of people doing pretty well using all sorts of different methodologies.  I might have been at this a bit long now to radically change the weight I give to different factors - and I am primarily a fairly orthodox form man - but I do love to see how other people consider things, and see whether I can usefully incorporate them into what I am doing.


Just on a side note, regarding hornet's lean couple of years: I have heard Brian Gault lamenting for a few years now that "Willie is no respecter of trends."  The way these Irish horses are being sourced (often from France) and the Willie MO with them (keep them in the barn for ages before they see a racecourse) is bound to throw up horses that don't fit the profile of past winners.  The way horses are trained is improving all the time, and you have to be considering the impact of those changes.  Results make statistics; statistics don't make results.
By:
Harry The Hornet
When: 20 Feb 21 23:16
Wasn't as successful as other years with the trends, they worked out in some races but not as much as previous years that's all really
By:
Harry The Hornet
When: 20 Feb 21 23:16
Wasn't as successful as other years with the trends, they worked out in some races but not as much as previous years that's all really
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