Cheltenham Festival

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28 Jan 21 19:46
Date Joined: 23 Oct 15
| Topic/replies: 452 | Blogger: Jb23's blog
Does anyone have any opinions on the not quite 4 miler?

I have noticed that Willie only has 2 entered Asterion Forlonge and LORD ROYAL who runs tomorrow at Navan in a 3m beginners chase. Whilst not being much of a price at 6/5 he will need to finish in the first 4 to qualify for the race. I’d be keen to take the 12-1 NRNB (PP or Sportsbook) before he runs and hopefully qualifies. On the rather risky assumption that qualifies tomorrow, you would have to imagine he would be the main Mullins hope with question marks over Asterion Forlonge's jumping.

To me there are 3 outcomes;
- If he doesn't qualify you get your money with NRNB
- He qualifies, amateurs are allowed to ride, he becomes the mount of Patrick and the public money comes for the likes of Paddy, Codd, O'Connor, O'Neil etc
- He qualifies and amateurs aren't allowed to ride. Townend rides and the money comes again and goes off 5/1 or shorter

If he qualifies, you'll be on a market principle at a double figure price and if he doesn't..... you can see Paddy Powers NRNB as a Cheltenham savings plan Excited

Away from Lord Royal, I noticed that Ben Pauling had put up NESTOR PARK for the NHC in the week. Given he know's how to win the race (Le Breuil), I think he could be worth a second glance and a fiver at 70.00 on here currently.
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Report irishone January 29, 2021 6:09 AM GMT
Report jimnast January 29, 2021 7:28 AM GMT
good morning jb

a few years ago [2009] i posted something on these lines regarding voy por ustedes in the champion chase he was around 6/1 with a run ,the ryanair was his target but there was always the chance that if something happened to master minded he would then run in the champion chase and would have been much shorter,the outcome was he ran in the ryanair and as you say it was a savings plan,back then i was quite surprised how many on here could not grasp the point of the bet.times will not of changed many just cant see beyond the fav in any races, regarding brexit and covid its non runner no bet so that extremely doubtful outcome is covered anyway.

there is a race at naas on sunday which has provided the short priced fav for the national hunt chase the last two years so its possible there will be a shake up in the betting over the weekend,good luck with your selection the thought deserves a return.
Report irishone January 29, 2021 7:54 AM GMT
Thought Willie would have learnt his lesson
Both his favourites
Both never to be seen again
Report jimnast January 29, 2021 8:16 AM GMT
perhaps willie could learn from you ,ballyward was killed in the race was that the fault of willie ?
Report irishone January 29, 2021 8:45 AM GMT
Willie appears to believe this race is a good stepping stone for Cheltenham, when did the last winner of this race figure as a winner at Cheltenham ?
Report jimnast January 29, 2021 9:29 AM GMT
4 years ago
Report irishone January 29, 2021 1:52 PM GMT
Anibel fly ? What didthat win at cheltenham ? Feck all
Report jimnast January 29, 2021 1:58 PM GMT
4 years ago tiger roll
Report jimnast January 29, 2021 2:03 PM GMT
where you got anibale fly from i have no idea but that horse has been placed in 2 gold cups.
Report jimnast January 29, 2021 2:07 PM GMT
i see you must have meant the naas race not the national hunt chase.
Report irishone January 29, 2021 4:44 PM GMT
.....der.... You brought the Naas race up !
Report jimnast January 29, 2021 5:00 PM GMT
with it been a thread on the national hunt chase i thought you were talking about that race .
Report mayburydrr February 8, 2021 5:07 PM GMT
Does anyone know if there are any penalties in this race, given it is a grade 2? Royale Pagaille won the Peter Marsh (grade 2), so trying to work out if he would be in line for a penalty if running in this, but can't work it out
Report Cash Is King February 10, 2021 1:17 PM GMT
No penalties if my reading of the conditions of last year's race is correct:

Grade Two, £125,000 Total Prize Fund, 4.50pm Tuesday, March 10. Three miles and six furlongs (3m 5f 201y). For novice five-year-olds
and upwards. To be ridden by amateur riders, who have ridden in a minimum of 20 steeple chases under the Rules of Racing, including
a minimum of 5 wins in chases. Weights: 5-y-o 11st 4lb; 6-y-o and upwards 11st 6lb; Mares allowed 7lb. Entries closed January 21 (61
entries), scratchings’ deadline February 18 (39 remain), six-day confirmation stage March 4, final declaration stage 10.00am Monday,
March 8. Maximum 16 runners.
Report strontium February 27, 2021 3:51 PM GMT
Does anyone know the cut-off date for a horse to qualify for this race please?
Report Cash Is King March 9, 2021 9:06 AM GMT
I think Henderson might have messed up in getting Dickie Diver qualified for this race.

He’s been entered and is a general 14/1 shot but I expect him to be scratched soon and ruled ineligible because his single placed chase run was over a trip that falls 1f short of the qualifying requirement.
Report strontium March 9, 2021 10:34 AM GMT
I think that's right Cash. As far as I can tell, he needed to qualify by today, and he hasn't.
Report Cash Is King March 9, 2021 11:26 PM GMT
Dickie Diver was the only McManus horse entered in the race.

"Nicky, all our hopes are resting on you in the NH Chase. Derek will ride him if amateurs are allowed to ride. Just make sure the horse finishes placed in the first 4 in a novice chase which is 2m 7.5f or longer. Got that?"

"No problem JP. That's why I ran him at Newbury just after Christmas. All systems go."

"But Nicky that race was only 2m 6.5f. WTF?"

"Sorry JP. What was Corky thinking. I'll tell him to paying more attention to detail in the future."
Report strontium March 10, 2021 9:38 AM GMT
It's not funny really. It reminds me of when he managed to get Whisper a 4 lb penalty for winning a two horse race that cost him the Hennessey (pocket talking :().
Report impossible123 March 10, 2021 2:24 PM GMT
Is RP confirmed for this or option still open for the Gold Cup? He's very short here.
Report seaserpent March 10, 2021 2:31 PM GMT
Royal Pagaille has been confirmed at todays forfeit stage and suspect he will be declared also for the Gold Cup on Saturday and they will have to decide on Sunday when the 48 hour decs are done for Tuesday
Report impossible123 March 10, 2021 2:34 PM GMT
Thanks 'seaserpent'. 2 bites of the cherry. Can he run in both eg falling early here then running on friday?
Report strontium March 10, 2021 3:02 PM GMT
Impossible - no. A horse can only be declared for one race at the Festival now (was changed a few years ago to stop multiple delcarations becoming NRs).
Report impossible123 March 10, 2021 6:27 PM GMT
Thanks 'strontium'. It makes it easier for punters.
Report yeasty March 10, 2021 9:57 PM GMT
I own a very tiny share in a Venetia Williams horse and saw her on a Festival Preview night for her owners. She implied that the decision will be taken at the very last minute so seaserpent is very likely right. She also gave the impression that she thought Royal Pagaille was being a little over-hyped. Although she seems pretty self-deprecating - I'd have been surprised to see her out of her seat screaming 'mortgage job lads, pile in'...
Report bertieboy March 11, 2021 10:57 AM GMT
I am talking through my pocket here as I have backed RP at fancy prices. But Rich Ricci has had plenty of winners at Chelts over the years but importantly never a gold cup. A lesser race win or the big one? surely makes more sense to have a crack at gold and he has no other runner that looks like running.

Of course a hype horse what has he beaten blah blah but has improved chunks each run and literally could be anything and with a probable smallish field of IMO fav aside no real superstars I'd be taking my chance if I owned him in a heartbeat.

Report Andymca March 11, 2021 11:01 AM GMT
Royal Pagaille is owned by Ricci's wife though
Report strontium March 11, 2021 11:07 AM GMT
Officially, all their horses are Andy.

I think on balance I'd have to agree with you Bertie. For an owner who already has so many big race/Festival wins, why not have a go at the big one? It's almost a shot to nothing with Monkfish coming through for next year. I doubt RP is good enough (wouldn't be the first horse with a dodgy rating earned on heavy ground at Haydock), but, as you say, he could be anything. I sense most of the negativity is coming from the trainer, who is very shrewd but is not in the same league as Mullins/Ricci when it comes to big race horses. She may well be happy to take a good chance of winning the NH Chase over a slim chance of winning the Gold Cup.
Report FOYLESWAR March 11, 2021 11:13 AM GMT
also pocket talking here but the gold cup or n hunt chase ? if he were mine the gold cup no argument  make hay while the sun shines imo !  " you may never get another chance !
Report bertieboy March 11, 2021 11:42 AM GMT
My thoughts entirely foyleswar, I actually think it is such a no brainer. Always been a fan of the improving horse and to put the gold cup on the cv is the pinnacle is it not?

I am sure Yeasty knows better than me but from what I have seen of Venetia after his races they were fully expecting him to dot up and clearly think the world of him. Not got the numbers to hand but I think had more spins over fences than Champ and jumped particularly well last time out.

What's not to like , my hunch is he will be fine round Cheltenham.
Report impossible123 March 11, 2021 11:44 AM GMT
Mr Mullins has ABP the fav on a consecutive 3rd title with the stable jock on board; Faugheen (Ricci) did not run in a Champion Hurdle he'd probably have won. Similarly, one of his (Ricci's) mares who I thought would have won it too, but she did not run either.

RP will probably be this way bound unless ABP drops out.
Report strontium March 11, 2021 11:57 AM GMT
But that's because Mullins decides which races the horses he trains run in. Ricci has said as much. But Mullins doesn't train this one.
Report bertieboy March 11, 2021 12:09 PM GMT
As always where willie mullins is concerned a conundrum! However if someone told me not to run my horse in a GC because another owner/trainer
had a decent one my second word would be off!
In simple terms RR has a potential chance to win a GC in a pretty weak year IMO and has no other runner in it....His brain is not working right if
he doesn't have a crack. And factor in also he could have the headache of two very live chances up against each other next year with Monkfish
Report strontium March 11, 2021 12:12 PM GMT
Interestnigly, RP has been left in the RSA at the six day stage.
Report bertieboy March 11, 2021 12:19 PM GMT
I presume Monkfish now can't be supplemented for GC?
Report strontium March 11, 2021 12:24 PM GMT
There's a supplementary stage on Saturday.
Report bertieboy March 11, 2021 12:32 PM GMT
Right... That would ruin some ante post bets if they send monkfish for the GC and RP for the RSA!
Report impossible123 March 11, 2021 5:02 PM GMT
I do not believe Monkfish will ever go Gold Cup (this year) with ABP present. Next year very likely. It's neither in the dna of his trainer nor jockey availability. I think most wanting RP for the Gold Cup are pocket-talking as I believe RP is unlikely to be effective even against these much of a muchness lot. Not long ago the same was spouted about Imperial Aura until his tipping-up in the next race.
Report FOYLESWAR March 11, 2021 5:08 PM GMT
could be right imp but if he was yours would you go gold cup or nhc ?
Report FOYLESWAR March 11, 2021 5:12 PM GMT
the majority of my money is on nrnb at 50s and a smaller bet at 66s ante post so most of my money back if he goes nhc but must admit my pocket would love to see him go gold cup ,he may not be good enough but would add  a bit of intrigue to the race .
Report impossible123 March 11, 2021 5:21 PM GMT
I'll go RSA as the NHC is worse than budget airline race. I think his trainer (VW) will be extremely disappointed if this race bound. But, the patronage of Ricci is more important than any Cheltenham race at this juncture. I do not have anything on RP, only a small 'lay' at 17 in the Gold Cup.
Report bertieboy March 11, 2021 7:53 PM GMT
I have backed him since his Kempton run from 66/1 ante post all the way down to 11,s for plenty, sadly not much nrnb
but trying to talk rationally without pocket talking if I were the owner(s) it would be GC all the way rather than take the soft option.

Looking at the weather it will still probably have some soft in the going description.
Report muse March 11, 2021 8:54 PM GMT
I think most jumps fans would go Gold Cup all day long as an owner, but most of is can't imagine having Ricci's options with his string.  I think they will go NH Chase, not least because Venetia would probably appreciate a Festival winner of any stripe.  I hope I am wrong.
Report Andymca March 11, 2021 10:01 PM GMT
Looks like Escaria Ten is going for this, judging by the huge drift in the Ultima
Report yeasty March 11, 2021 11:10 PM GMT
I'm pocket-talking and naturally conservative but I'm sure I'd go for the GC if I was them. Would they really have the NH Chase trophy on their mantlepiece? Would 7 NH Chases be better than 1 Gold Cup? Because that's effectively what they'd be saying. Go for the glory! Even if you bomb out you've got Monkfish who will be probably be 3/1 for the 2022 GC before the week is out. If money is no object then glory is everything. If an element of glory is assured then go for the very top.
Report differentdrum March 12, 2021 2:46 PM GMT
On ratings Royal Pagaille has 15lbs in hand so the odds don't look right. He should be odds on, and Galvin certainly shouldn't be shortening up.

Many have had Galvin backed for a long time (probably most of the yard) and I suspect they will be praying that Royale Pagaille goes for the Gold Cup.

I know it's the Gold Cup, but you have an odds on task against a double figure odds chance in a race he will still be eligible for next year. It looks a no brainer.
Report Andymca March 13, 2021 11:52 PM GMT
Royale Pagaille drifting
Report harry callaghan March 14, 2021 10:07 AM GMT
Anyone know when nicholls said he next destination goes for this? Sorry must of missed him saying?
Report FOYLESWAR March 14, 2021 10:13 AM GMT
last night iirc harry
Report harry callaghan March 14, 2021 10:16 AM GMT
You can’t keep up with it foyles...

best of luck with pagaille this week foyles, be a little beauty if he comes up the running for you
Report FOYLESWAR March 14, 2021 10:16 AM GMT
sorry harry scrub that,........... 1 hour ago on nick luck
Report harry callaghan March 14, 2021 10:18 AM GMT
Hills must be licking there chops with all these non runners, after betting without nrnb all season
Report FOYLESWAR March 14, 2021 10:18 AM GMT
cheers harry best of luck to you ! as said nicholls confimed next d for this  around the time that royal pag going for gold cup
Report harry callaghan March 14, 2021 10:23 AM GMT
I don’t think it’s good all this swapping and changing...

I’m not involved yet but other people must be sick with all these changes, just puts people way and leaves a sour taste for people
Report bertieboy March 14, 2021 12:29 PM GMT
They made the right decision Foyles! I hope my email to Venetia pleading for RP to go for gold worked!

Best of luck
Report irishone March 16, 2021 5:36 PM GMT
Galvin was an absolute stone bonker
Pity codd werent on him
He would have won ten lengths
Report jimnast March 16, 2021 8:55 PM GMT
well done irishone with galvin i know you were keen for a long time,spend it wisely.
Report irishone March 16, 2021 9:19 PM GMT
Cheers jim, a few hundred up today but the big ones tomorrow
Report jimnast March 16, 2021 9:33 PM GMT
2 fallers for me from 2 ew bets one sure to be second in the first race,abracadbras in the champion to far out but clearly would not have beat honeysuckle ,to go along with colume of fire in the last race in 2020 thats some treble.

good luck with your bumper horse
Report Quevega06 April 6, 2021 12:40 AM BST
Run Wild Fred 2022
Report irishone April 6, 2021 4:38 PM BST
Imp "could be right"

That would be a first
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