Cheltenham Festival
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Does anyone have any opinions on the not quite 4 miler?
I have noticed that Willie only has 2 entered Asterion Forlonge and LORD ROYAL who runs tomorrow at Navan in a 3m beginners chase. Whilst not being much of a price at 6/5 he will need to finish in the first 4 to qualify for the race. I’d be keen to take the 12-1 NRNB (PP or Sportsbook) before he runs and hopefully qualifies. On the rather risky assumption that qualifies tomorrow, you would have to imagine he would be the main Mullins hope with question marks over Asterion Forlonge's jumping.
To me there are 3 outcomes;
- If he doesn't qualify you get your money with NRNB
- He qualifies, amateurs are allowed to ride, he becomes the mount of Patrick and the public money comes for the likes of Paddy, Codd, O'Connor, O'Neil etc
- He qualifies and amateurs aren't allowed to ride. Townend rides and the money comes again and goes off 5/1 or shorter
If he qualifies, you'll be on a market principle at a double figure price and if he doesn't..... you can see Paddy Powers NRNB as a Cheltenham savings plan
Away from Lord Royal, I noticed that Ben Pauling had put up NESTOR PARK for the NHC in the week. Given he know's how to win the race (Le Breuil), I think he could be worth a second glance and a fiver at 70.00 on here currently.
I have noticed that Willie only has 2 entered Asterion Forlonge and LORD ROYAL who runs tomorrow at Navan in a 3m beginners chase. Whilst not being much of a price at 6/5 he will need to finish in the first 4 to qualify for the race. I’d be keen to take the 12-1 NRNB (PP or Sportsbook) before he runs and hopefully qualifies. On the rather risky assumption that qualifies tomorrow, you would have to imagine he would be the main Mullins hope with question marks over Asterion Forlonge's jumping.
To me there are 3 outcomes;
- If he doesn't qualify you get your money with NRNB
- He qualifies, amateurs are allowed to ride, he becomes the mount of Patrick and the public money comes for the likes of Paddy, Codd, O'Connor, O'Neil etc
- He qualifies and amateurs aren't allowed to ride. Townend rides and the money comes again and goes off 5/1 or shorter
If he qualifies, you'll be on a market principle at a double figure price and if he doesn't..... you can see Paddy Powers NRNB as a Cheltenham savings plan
Away from Lord Royal, I noticed that Ben Pauling had put up NESTOR PARK for the NHC in the week. Given he know's how to win the race (Le Breuil), I think he could be worth a second glance and a fiver at 70.00 on here currently.
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1. BREXIT.
2. COVID 3. GALVIN |
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good morning jb
a few years ago [2009] i posted something on these lines regarding voy por ustedes in the champion chase he was around 6/1 with a run ,the ryanair was his target but there was always the chance that if something happened to master minded he would then run in the champion chase and would have been much shorter,the outcome was he ran in the ryanair and as you say it was a savings plan,back then i was quite surprised how many on here could not grasp the point of the bet.times will not of changed many just cant see beyond the fav in any races, regarding brexit and covid its non runner no bet so that extremely doubtful outcome is covered anyway. there is a race at naas on sunday which has provided the short priced fav for the national hunt chase the last two years so its possible there will be a shake up in the betting over the weekend,good luck with your selection the thought deserves a return. |
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Thought Willie would have learnt his lesson
Both his favourites Both never to be seen again |
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perhaps willie could learn from you ,ballyward was killed in the race was that the fault of willie ?
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Willie appears to believe this race is a good stepping stone for Cheltenham, when did the last winner of this race figure as a winner at Cheltenham ?
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4 years ago
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Anibel fly ? What didthat win at cheltenham ? Feck all
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4 years ago tiger roll
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where you got anibale fly from i have no idea but that horse has been placed in 2 gold cups.
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i see you must have meant the naas race not the national hunt chase.
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.....der.... You brought the Naas race up !
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with it been a thread on the national hunt chase i thought you were talking about that race .
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Does anyone know if there are any penalties in this race, given it is a grade 2? Royale Pagaille won the Peter Marsh (grade 2), so trying to work out if he would be in line for a penalty if running in this, but can't work it out
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No penalties if my reading of the conditions of last year's race is correct:
Grade Two, £125,000 Total Prize Fund, 4.50pm Tuesday, March 10. Three miles and six furlongs (3m 5f 201y). For novice five-year-olds and upwards. To be ridden by amateur riders, who have ridden in a minimum of 20 steeple chases under the Rules of Racing, including a minimum of 5 wins in chases. Weights: 5-y-o 11st 4lb; 6-y-o and upwards 11st 6lb; Mares allowed 7lb. Entries closed January 21 (61 entries), scratchings’ deadline February 18 (39 remain), six-day confirmation stage March 4, final declaration stage 10.00am Monday, March 8. Maximum 16 runners. https://files.constantcontact.com/205db977201/cc70b6da-dedf-4e28-94cc-c24f1c3d4589.pdf |
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Does anyone know the cut-off date for a horse to qualify for this race please?
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I think Henderson might have messed up in getting Dickie Diver qualified for this race.
He’s been entered and is a general 14/1 shot but I expect him to be scratched soon and ruled ineligible because his single placed chase run was over a trip that falls 1f short of the qualifying requirement. |
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I think that's right Cash. As far as I can tell, he needed to qualify by today, and he hasn't.
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Dickie Diver was the only McManus horse entered in the race.
"Nicky, all our hopes are resting on you in the NH Chase. Derek will ride him if amateurs are allowed to ride. Just make sure the horse finishes placed in the first 4 in a novice chase which is 2m 7.5f or longer. Got that?" "No problem JP. That's why I ran him at Newbury just after Christmas. All systems go." "But Nicky that race was only 2m 6.5f. WTF?" "Sorry JP. What was Corky thinking. I'll tell him to paying more attention to detail in the future." |
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It's not funny really. It reminds me of when he managed to get Whisper a 4 lb penalty for winning a two horse race that cost him the Hennessey (pocket talking :().
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Is RP confirmed for this or option still open for the Gold Cup? He's very short here.
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Royal Pagaille has been confirmed at todays forfeit stage and suspect he will be declared also for the Gold Cup on Saturday and they will have to decide on Sunday when the 48 hour decs are done for Tuesday
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Thanks 'seaserpent'. 2 bites of the cherry. Can he run in both eg falling early here then running on friday?
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Impossible - no. A horse can only be declared for one race at the Festival now (was changed a few years ago to stop multiple delcarations becoming NRs).
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Thanks 'strontium'. It makes it easier for punters.
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I own a very tiny share in a Venetia Williams horse and saw her on a Festival Preview night for her owners. She implied that the decision will be taken at the very last minute so seaserpent is very likely right. She also gave the impression that she thought Royal Pagaille was being a little over-hyped. Although she seems pretty self-deprecating - I'd have been surprised to see her out of her seat screaming 'mortgage job lads, pile in'...
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I am talking through my pocket here as I have backed RP at fancy prices. But Rich Ricci has had plenty of winners at Chelts over the years but importantly never a gold cup. A lesser race win or the big one? surely makes more sense to have a crack at gold and he has no other runner that looks like running.
Of course a hype horse what has he beaten blah blah but has improved chunks each run and literally could be anything and with a probable smallish field of IMO fav aside no real superstars I'd be taking my chance if I owned him in a heartbeat. Thoughts |
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Royal Pagaille is owned by Ricci's wife though
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Officially, all their horses are Andy.
I think on balance I'd have to agree with you Bertie. For an owner who already has so many big race/Festival wins, why not have a go at the big one? It's almost a shot to nothing with Monkfish coming through for next year. I doubt RP is good enough (wouldn't be the first horse with a dodgy rating earned on heavy ground at Haydock), but, as you say, he could be anything. I sense most of the negativity is coming from the trainer, who is very shrewd but is not in the same league as Mullins/Ricci when it comes to big race horses. She may well be happy to take a good chance of winning the NH Chase over a slim chance of winning the Gold Cup. |
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also pocket talking here but the gold cup or n hunt chase ? if he were mine the gold cup no argument make hay while the sun shines imo ! " you may never get another chance !
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My thoughts entirely foyleswar, I actually think it is such a no brainer. Always been a fan of the improving horse and to put the gold cup on the cv is the pinnacle is it not?
I am sure Yeasty knows better than me but from what I have seen of Venetia after his races they were fully expecting him to dot up and clearly think the world of him. Not got the numbers to hand but I think had more spins over fences than Champ and jumped particularly well last time out. What's not to like , my hunch is he will be fine round Cheltenham. |
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Mr Mullins has ABP the fav on a consecutive 3rd title with the stable jock on board; Faugheen (Ricci) did not run in a Champion Hurdle he'd probably have won. Similarly, one of his (Ricci's) mares who I thought would have won it too, but she did not run either.
RP will probably be this way bound unless ABP drops out. |
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But that's because Mullins decides which races the horses he trains run in. Ricci has said as much. But Mullins doesn't train this one.
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As always where willie mullins is concerned a conundrum! However if someone told me not to run my horse in a GC because another owner/trainer
had a decent one my second word would be off! In simple terms RR has a potential chance to win a GC in a pretty weak year IMO and has no other runner in it....His brain is not working right if he doesn't have a crack. And factor in also he could have the headache of two very live chances up against each other next year with Monkfish |
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Interestnigly, RP has been left in the RSA at the six day stage.
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I presume Monkfish now can't be supplemented for GC?
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There's a supplementary stage on Saturday.
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Right... That would ruin some ante post bets if they send monkfish for the GC and RP for the RSA!
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I do not believe Monkfish will ever go Gold Cup (this year) with ABP present. Next year very likely. It's neither in the dna of his trainer nor jockey availability. I think most wanting RP for the Gold Cup are pocket-talking as I believe RP is unlikely to be effective even against these much of a muchness lot. Not long ago the same was spouted about Imperial Aura until his tipping-up in the next race.
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could be right imp but if he was yours would you go gold cup or nhc ?
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