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Hibore
15 Jan 21 19:03
Joined:
Date Joined: 23 Jun 07
| Topic/replies: 20,258 | Blogger: Hibore's blog
Thought worth starting a thread. I have a bit of inside info that Skelton thinks Third Time Lucky is one of the best he’s had. We have backed at big prices but still value in my opinion at 16/1 as you won’t see him at his best until he has generous pace with a hill to run up.
Skelton says Musselburgh trials day then Supreme is the plan but the owner hasn’t discounted Betfair Hurdle.
Appreciate it looks a very strong rival but bit short now.

Opinions?
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Report buddeliea January 15, 2021 8:41 PM GMT
Been fairly busy ain’t he , but looks interesting , and good that they think a lot of him. Not far behind AI in the Bumper .
Yep would not put anyone off backing him.
Thanks Hibore. I
Report buddeliea January 15, 2021 8:58 PM GMT
Hills going 16 any race Hibore, I’ve taken that.
Report Hibore January 15, 2021 9:47 PM GMT
Definitely running in Supreme but 16/1 is best price anyway.
Report FOYLESWAR January 19, 2021 4:54 PM GMT
hendo runs gallyhaill tommorow in newbury novice hurdle 2m ,a 3m point winner 33s supreme and 50s ballymore ,could be anything any info on it ?
Report FOYLESWAR January 19, 2021 5:21 PM GMT
is  this novice hurdle the one  won by shishkin last year ?
Report GAZO January 19, 2021 5:27 PM GMT
wasnt he one of those horses that cost big money ?
Report FOYLESWAR January 19, 2021 5:46 PM GMT
dont know much about him at all gazo ! will do some research ,hendo hasnt got much for the supreme or ballymore and its interesting that he starts this one out in the newbury race shishkin won last year ,shishkin had fallen  early on his hurdles debut at huntingdon thyen won the newbury hurdle then won at huntingdon before winning the supreme .
Report FOYLESWAR January 19, 2021 5:48 PM GMT
sorry fell at newbury on hurdles debut ^^^^^
Report FOYLESWAR January 19, 2021 5:51 PM GMT
cost £450,000
Report muse January 19, 2021 8:26 PM GMT
Bought by Henrietta Knight for the current owners.

Surely bought for chasing.   Might be a novive hurdler, but the Supreme?
Report GAZO January 19, 2021 9:27 PM GMT
it quite late to be bring a very inexperienced horse out if cheltenham is this year's target
Report Jb23 January 20, 2021 9:32 PM GMT
Completely agreed that Third Time Lucki is a nice antepost pick. 16-1 and 4-1 a place for an intended runner with minimal worries in a field of relative question marks barring the fave feels like a good bet.
Report harry callaghan January 28, 2021 7:03 PM GMT
The good horse of Henderson’s out tomorrow at Doncaster...be interesting to see how he goes
Report harry callaghan January 29, 2021 12:33 PM GMT
Very weak in the betting and the hood on for the quirky creature...maybe he isn’t pleasing them, will be a shame if he ends up chucking it in again
Report FOYLESWAR January 29, 2021 2:57 PM GMT
and hendo not in the best form either .
Report harry callaghan January 29, 2021 4:00 PM GMT
Well disappointing again pulling like a pig...they got the lot laying that again.

Oh well not to be for the horse, had his ears pricked at the last when beaten very strange
Report Hibore February 7, 2021 11:28 AM GMT
TTL running at Muss today. Hopefully decent pace and win decisively. Mike who owns him says he’s flying at home.
Report irishone February 7, 2021 12:06 PM GMT
If of course you are not telling porkys again
Report Hibore February 7, 2021 12:26 PM GMT
Are you the person they refer to in English, Irish and Scotsman jokes.

That would make sense.
Report irishone February 7, 2021 12:32 PM GMT
Particularly if you were the brit....
Report irishone February 7, 2021 3:43 PM GMT
TTL ran well....for an odds on favourite ?

Hows yer mate Mike ? Lies, lies and more lies !
Report Hibore February 7, 2021 3:48 PM GMT
Village idiot
Report irishone February 7, 2021 4:07 PM GMT
Who exposed you as the liar you are !
Report Hibore February 7, 2021 4:09 PM GMT
Village idiot
Report Bentring February 7, 2021 4:41 PM GMT
When their going well at home race them at home,but in hindsight it's 40/1 now so you won't be disappointed
Report Bentring February 7, 2021 4:41 PM GMT
..
Report harry callaghan February 12, 2021 10:58 PM GMT
Does anyone think Zanahiyr would turn up here with the 4 year old allowance? Elliott seems mob handed in the triumph, so surely one of horses may take in the supreme and he looks just the type
Report GAZO February 13, 2021 9:25 AM GMT
i think they all have different owners so if Zanahiyr was yours would you switch ? i am sure i heard something that Quilixios cannot run in the supreme but wouldnt be surprised if one of his others did if the vibes in the stable about the other two are that strong,duffle coat might be suited by a very strongly run 2 mile supreme
Report irishone February 13, 2021 9:56 AM GMT
Agree gazo
Report penzance February 13, 2021 11:39 AM GMT
Metier goes straight here now.
Think this is a good animal.
Report harry callaghan February 13, 2021 12:31 PM GMT

i think they all have different owners so if Zanahiyr was yours would you switch ?


I make him the fastest novice this season, so if I had no vested interest betting wise I’d switch him, I have never understood why more trainers have never taken advantage of the allowance in the supreme, it is priceless if you have a decent animal.
Report GAZO February 13, 2021 12:59 PM GMT
so you would take what you think is the best 4yo and put him in another race which could be more difficult ? even if you think the supreme isnt strong why change races
Report impossible123 February 13, 2021 1:06 PM GMT
A nonsensical remark by someone about the target for Zanahiyr? He's drifted 1/2 a point to 3/1 from 5/2. Market manipulation more likely, I think.
Report harry callaghan February 13, 2021 1:17 PM GMT
No not the best 4 year old, the best novice period and it isn’t a more difficult race it’s easier

and yes I would because I have 3 others in the yard who can win the triumph and I’m get a huge weight concession in the supreme hence why I posted it
Report penzance February 13, 2021 1:23 PM GMT
don't know how many have tried,but
you've got to go back to 1999 for
the last winner,Hors La Loi.(Pipe)
Report harry callaghan February 13, 2021 1:31 PM GMT
Not many Penzance which is odd considering the weight concession...I was only interested in peoples views considering how many decent 4 year olds the trainer has in his barn. I haven’t bet him but think he’d be near favourite if running just interesting that’s all
Report penzance February 13, 2021 1:36 PM GMT
not having a pop,you think it's got
a good chance in this if running,
that's fair enough,to me.The stats
boys might post how many have run
and where they've finished.
   GL
Report GAZO February 13, 2021 1:36 PM GMT
binocular tried and finished 2nd,i think the owner had short priced fav for triumph and thats the problem for elliot they are owned by different people
Report harry callaghan February 13, 2021 1:42 PM GMT
These are some stats from gaulstats for supreme if you like stats...
not many 4 year olds have tried. Like I say it’s surprising considering the weight concession


AGE - This century all bar two have been won by either a 5 or 6-year-old including all the last twelve. Won't be much of a filter. Six yr olds filled the top seven places last year and have won four of the last five.

65 horses aged 7 and above have tried in the past 26. Like-a-Butterfly '02 (8 yrs) and Captain Cee Bee '08 (7yrs) both won when well fancied, Simple Arithmetic ’95 and Chauvinist ‘03 only others to get placed. Sondrio ’89 only other winner from this age group in past 40 odd years. No seven year olds placed or priced under 14s since Dunguib 4/5 third in 2010. Only 11 others have tried. Appreciate It.

No 4 yr old winner since Hors la Loi '99. Hors La Loi came from winning the 4 yr old Finesse on Trials Day. It was called the Summit Hurdle those days, was run on the mid December at Lingfield and he won by 16 lengths. Best since has been Binocular 2nd in 2008 He had come from winning the Adonis at Kempton. Fakir D'Oudairies 4th in 2019 backed down to 9/2 joint fav (along with a Betfair Hurdle winner, jeez) Couple of 4 yr old no hopers in previous two years, no triers in 6 years previous to that. 4 year olds get an 8lb allowance. Fakir ran here because the ill fated Sir Erec was meant to be a certainty for the Triumph.
Report duffy February 13, 2021 2:04 PM GMT
I would not argue with them if they considered the Supreme was an easier looking race than the Triumph, personally I was really impressed with French Aseel too and think he'd be a big threat in the Triumph, better ground will see him even better too.

Zanahiyr would go off favourite for the Supreme I reckon.
Report impossible123 February 13, 2021 2:45 PM GMT
Pocket talking. Zanahiyr running here is akin to Energumene running in the JLT. Why a reroute when the horse has an excellent chance in The Triumph? The stable companions do not even share the same owner.
Report duffy February 13, 2021 3:09 PM GMT
Energumene running in the JLT would be going to a harder race IMO. Anyway, the logic as I see it would be that the Triumph is one of the fewer races this year where Elliot is strong in depth, he could take his best one out and run it in the easier Supreme and attempt to kill 2 birds with one stone.
Report impossible123 February 13, 2021 3:25 PM GMT
I think Energumene has been known to jump slightly right at times, and in a 2m race will concede ground esp at Cheltenham to the Supreme winner Shishkin. The JLT and against Envoi Allen could bring into play his stamina, and possibly expose what Envoi Allen has done over fences so far.

I think Quilixios may encounter strong opposition against French Aseel, Nassalam and Adagio. His jumping is not as slick as Zanahiyr or these three against him. Between Zanahiyr and Quilixios the former would be the more likely Supreme bound, if he qualifies. A different ownership makes it unlikely either even if he qualifies.
Report buddeliea February 13, 2021 3:26 PM GMT
Just run your horses in the race that suits them best, Fock all this easier race sh1te!!
To be honest I am sick of trainers trying to win as many races as possible, it’s become an obsession at Cheltenham, and frankly I find it tedious.

One of the best chasers I have ever seen in a bl00dy long time never ran in the Arkle or Champion Chase cos of that obsession, Vautour goes down in history as the winner of JLT and Ryanair!!
Sick of it
Report harry callaghan February 13, 2021 3:35 PM GMT
Well said budd

not sure you would say the same when talking of appreciate it though, who should be running in the ballymore hurdle Wink
Report impossible123 February 13, 2021 3:37 PM GMT
This rumour to induce market manipulation is so common and prevalent round about this time prior to the Festival. For Elliot to even consider it would triumph the prediction of Mystic Meg about the winner of the County Hurdle 2021.
Report duffy February 13, 2021 3:41 PM GMT
I remember when Zanahiyr burst on to the scene and all you heard for a while was how he had blew everyone away with that performance at Fairyhouse and then backing it up, which got less fanfare but I thought was better again, anyway I reckon his supporters would be surprised that this close to the festival you could still get as big as 11/4 about him.

The look of the Triumph has gotten deeper and stronger I reckon, where as the Supreme has gone the other way,if he was targeted at the Supreme all along he'd be the price that AI is now for that race IMO.
Report duffy February 13, 2021 3:44 PM GMT
AI would get done for toe in the ballymore, the typical Champion Hurdle breeding ground that it is, he's better off in setting an end to end gallop in the Supreme and hoping Zanahiyr doesn't come pi55ing past him off the home turn.Mischief
Report harry callaghan February 13, 2021 3:47 PM GMT
That’s a fair point Duffy in regards the 11/4 you can certainly smell a rat.

The trouble for punters is being constantly put away by these trainers, hence why it’s small stuff for me now but happier with that and let the hype take over and fraudulent markets for race dayHappy
Report duffy February 13, 2021 3:52 PM GMT
The big 11/4 price feeds into your Supreme theory though doesn't it?
Report impossible123 February 13, 2021 3:59 PM GMT
Zanahiyr is 11/4 (best price) mainly because of his stable companions. And, Elliot is not adverse to running two in the same race. Neither is Hendo or Mullins.
Report harry callaghan February 13, 2021 4:04 PM GMT
No I didn’t have any theory’s Duffy just thought after the trails that’s where I’d go with that allowance and after watching appreciate it and the other Irish horses, even more so

I do believe appreciate is a sitting duck in the supreme to something with a turn of foot, hence my argument that they should pull stumps and go up in trip  for the ballymore with a hold up ride for him.

I suppose because I haven’t an interest betting wise in the supreme (apart from buttons on appreciate it) I can have a different opinion but I do make him interesting Zanahiyr. It was more to do with the amount of horses the trainer has to win the triumph race, who probably wouldn’t be suited to a supreme and he would.

This is the problem now with all the good horses being housed in just a few barns I’m afraid
Report buddeliea February 13, 2021 4:08 PM GMT
Exactly.
Report penzance February 14, 2021 12:08 PM GMT
Uhtred runs today,I thought he was
injured.If he wins or puts up a good
performance could be a big player in
this.
Report harry callaghan February 15, 2021 5:53 PM GMT
Ellliott said: "Zanahiyr will run in the Triumph. He's favourite for it, and that's where he will go. He's had his three runs and has picked up plenty of experience. We didn't run him at the Dublin Racing Festival and kept him back to go straight to the Triumph instead. He's in great form."

On the unbeaten Quilixios, Elliott said: "I'm not sure what sort of mark Quilixios would get in the Boodles, but he'll certainly have an entry to find out. We'll see what mark he gets and then decide whether to go there or to the Triumph. He was very good at Leopardstown."
Report impossible123 February 15, 2021 6:50 PM GMT
No Supreme for Zanahiyr - the rumour mongering is quashed; Quilixios could go to the Boodles Handicap, however.
Report irishone February 25, 2021 10:25 PM GMT
Like to know Willies plans, he still has two debutants in the race. would be typical for second or third string to usurp the fav. Couple already out to 1000\1 on here , cant be right when they are still entered ?. Anyone know anything about johnjoes one soaring glory ?
Report Andymca March 7, 2021 7:14 PM GMT
Leading Supreme hope Thedevilscoachman to miss Cheltenham for Fairyhouse
Report Andymca March 8, 2021 1:23 PM GMT
Dreal Deal ruled out of Supreme
Report FOYLESWAR March 9, 2021 8:20 PM GMT
backed irascable a while back at 28/1 and went in again at 40/1 non runner no bet  yesterday each way wernt that far off the fav 2 runs ago and although needs a fair bit to find is lightly raced and could improve and if the fav bombs who knows !
Report unclepuncle March 9, 2021 11:07 PM GMT
Had a big lump on Bob Olinger nrnb at 10/1 just in case they divert him - no risk and if he runs will be about 7/2.

Also backed Blue Lord with Skybet 14/1 nrnb money back.
Report irishone March 10, 2021 6:35 AM GMT
I am surprised it took so long for doubts about Soaring Glory to emerge

His near hind werent right to me after the betfair hurdle yet he pulled away willingly on the run in.
Report FOYLESWAR March 14, 2021 10:10 AM GMT
8 runners ,app it ,blue lord,ballyadam. grumpy c,irascable, soaring glory,metier,for pleasure.
Report Deptford March 14, 2021 10:30 AM GMT
That is poor
Report impossible123 March 14, 2021 10:41 AM GMT
No interest here after the defection of Dreal Deal. I cannot back Mullins' with free money.
Report Andymca March 14, 2021 10:46 AM GMT
Can Blue Lord still be declared for Ballymore or Grand Annual ?
Report cobra sam March 14, 2021 10:48 AM GMT
someone on another thread said a horse only allowed to run in 1 race at the festival now...dunno if that helps you at all
Report Andymca March 14, 2021 10:55 AM GMT
Yeah I think that post was about a horse running in more than two races if it fell in the first race etc
Report ashleigh March 14, 2021 11:18 AM GMT
who would have thought neither nicholls or henderson would have a runner. questions need asking.
Report irishone March 14, 2021 12:24 PM GMT
Me
Report strontium March 14, 2021 1:19 PM GMT
Hendo would likely have had the second or third favourite, but injured.
Report Nogoody March 14, 2021 1:20 PM GMT
Laugh

Do you ever miss an opportunity?
Report gpz6316 March 15, 2021 3:48 PM GMT
worst supreme that i,ve seen , but , grateful we are to be entertained . I reckon the favourite is beatable , he reminds me of   "his song " a big dour grinder . no rain forecast at present for the week so its likely to ride quicker than the soft forecast on rp , especially on unopened ground . i think ballyadam looks to have the class / speed credentials to reverse the formlines just like french ballerina did . Against him is the yard change , heard in the press  the yards have the same feed though .  best of luck
Report Deptford March 15, 2021 6:57 PM GMT
10mm rain overnight.
Report sageform March 15, 2021 7:54 PM GMT
I suppose that Metier must be good but I can't even remember any of the races it has run in-and that is the second favourite!
Report irishone March 16, 2021 9:51 AM GMT
If you are going to back apprecaite it atoddson
may as well back blue lord ,four for a place 1\2
Report Andymca March 16, 2021 1:27 PM GMT
Never in doubt
Report sageform March 16, 2021 1:27 PM GMT
I had a very small place bet on Blue LordCry For Pleasure the first English trained home which sums it up really.
Report FOYLESWAR March 16, 2021 1:28 PM GMT
well done winners pished up!
Report impossible123 March 16, 2021 1:47 PM GMT
Who were the "professional" media pundits advocating vociferously against Appreciate It? He won very easily. I'd like to see another run from him to assess his superiority.
Report sageform March 16, 2021 2:03 PM GMT
If those are the best novice hurdlers in England and Ireland, then Appreciate It must be pretty good although Blue Lord would have been a very respectable second. The rest are 140 horses at best.
Report Andymca March 16, 2021 2:17 PM GMT
Given that Ballyadam made a bad mistake ad still finished second, shows how superior the Irish novice hurdlers are to the English ones
Report irishone March 16, 2021 5:38 PM GMT
Absolutely
Report sageform March 16, 2021 7:18 PM GMT
The ones that ran today, yes.
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