Cheltenham Festival
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I hate the term Irish banker but will this horse become that horse
I hate the term Irish banker but will this horse become that horse
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Personally I am deep on PTKO for the champion chase.
Other than that there is one certain winner .....COVID19 |
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Fire Attack County hurdle
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ooh, i like it, straight in with a put up on a tricky handicap, 3 months before the race.
I shall take a look at that one. |
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You will probably find out where most of the Mullins novices are going when the final decs. come out.
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On what we currently know who are the supreme horses (behind Appreciate It) you would place above the horses Budd mentioned in the Ballymore market, as while you have focussed on your view of the relative historical merits of both races at least Budd has named some actual horses for you to shoot down.
Miltons Sophie the question you ask above... I haven’t ignored you but like I said earlier, the supreme always ends up more competitive as more horses come to the fore in the second part of the season...hence why they bet 7 places on the day every year but to prove my point I will just add them as we go this year and we can say which race is more competitive come the day I haven’t posted it to shove it up anyone as have no wish to talk through my pocket...but I’d have an even monkey with anyone on which race will end up more competitive come Cheltenham week because the supreme is 5/1 on in my book to be far more competitive come race week and is every year imo I’ll start with 2 today who weren’t really on peoples radar betting wise Metier in the tolworth took a big step forwards from the gaff track races he’d won admittedly in decent times in those heats...he is now firmly in the mix Gentlemansgame showed plenty of pace at cork today...a horse we hadn’t heard of unless you follow Irish points but an impressive performance none the less...it’ll be interesting if he improves from this after showing plenty of pace, of course it’s possible he’ll go up in trip but at the moment he’s now in the mix if progressing. Anyway long way to go and I’ll add them as I see them and you’ll be welcome like others to shoot them down as you liked to put it, in you’re earlier post |
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Happy new year Harry. You argued the historical merits of the two races. Budd took a here and now view of them both.i felt Budd stuck his neck out by naming horses at the time. You are now using two performances today to bolster your argument. I am hoping Budd does not respond and refer to Barvemansgame challow performance which could arguably strengthen his view. Re Metier he was firmly on my list and completely agree and so ironically I was not entirely convinced by Budds view but felt the pocket talk accusation was really harsh for a poster i have a lot of time for. British novices are always on my radar as they often represent value imo. For the record i also very much like Boothill although the splint set back is a concern. I also agree that Gentlemansgame was impressive though his only rival pulled harder than a tug of war team. He may end up in the Supreme though he gave me the impression of being more of a staying type and is stoutly bred with a sire that tends to throw staying types out of a terimon mare. He certainly looks like a tool to go to war with over fences and its nice to see the trainer with a few really nice prospects again.
As you say a long time to go and best of luck in both races. |
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All well and good miltons...my point however is not to fight a said corner but to merely say every price looks good at a certain point but when dealing with the supreme novices hurdle their are still lots of cans of worms to open, however you won’t see it in the ballymore to the amount we will see in the supreme it’s the same every year
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Lads , loads of unsupported comments made above which I have to take issue with .
"British novices are always on my radar as they often represent value " Whats that then ? british trained , bred or owned ? How do you measure the "competitiveness" if there is such a word of races ? What are those measurements please say for the last ten years ? |
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tbf irish you take issue with many things...i have to admire your stamina. opinions sometimes are unsupported particularly when referring to something as personally held and potentially abstract as 'value'. What one person considers value another may not. i think thats fine. I believe the recent Irish domination has created a little recency bias in markets. Just an opinion or as you prefer just a guess on my part. i am not claiming it as a fact. Metier was available at 33s to win the tolworth and any race at the festival yesterday. I believe had this been a 142 rated Irish trained novice (particularly if trained by a high profile trainer) it would not have been available at such a price)). Impossible for me to support just a guess.
Another guess is that Metier will be given an RPR close to or even in excess of the 150 given to Appreciate It for winning the future champion but even if he is there is no way he will come anywhere close to replacing AI at the head of the market. Despite all this I have seen comments questioning whether the 12s available for Metier was value and questioning the sanity of anybody considering backing him at single figure prices. I do believe AI is the most likely winner of the supreme (and have him firmly on my side) but i do not have him quite as far clear as the market does. |
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Don't like his AI's chances in the Supreme myself certainly not at his price , hopefully the Irish money comes for him on the day and I can get a cheap enough place lay on him to get the ball rolling.
I think the Supreme is the wrong race for AI. |
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Value is "personally held and potentially abstract" ?
Winning when betting is all about calculation of value. You look at the price and take your choice. How you calculate value as you say is personal, but potentially abstract ? Not in the slightest . |
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for some value is an abstract concept and not a calculation. perhaps a little more art than science or more of a feeling or an instinct. clearly not everyone maybe not the majority and presumably not you which is why i used potentially but perhaps it is for me and possibly others as well. Each to their own. I'm not sure you get to decide.
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Irish as you are “deep in” on Put the Kettle in for the Champion Chase I’d be interested in your calculation there ? The horse is very admirable but miles away on form and ratings.
Serious question. |
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Its not just about form and ratings
There is a volume of encyclopaedias detailing form and ratings misjudgements. The question you may need to ask is that of the owners intentions. |
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completely agree
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Knowing what is going on behind the scenes with a horse is very advantageous. I thought it was very possible she’d go to the Mares Chase instead.
Would you recommend an EW @ 20\1 ? |
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rubys trying to get her there. read into that what you may
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My thinking is ....
Champion chase £400k plus Mares chase £120 plus The horse jumps from fence to fence, she gets into a rythm ,shes not particularly quick, but she sets a pace and sticks on it, politilogue, frodon, other examples at Cheltenham. The recent flat race she ran in was right up Chacons street. Cheltenham is not a galloping track for me, she is not a galloper, she runs and jumps, stays remarkably balanced and no longer hangs. I am on at all prices so far hibore. |
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In your own words....multiple times.
Guessing |
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That was a bit harsh. Good luck with your bet and hope it wins for you.
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Thanks Hi bore
Was I guessing last year Putting it up at 20\1 for the arkle Whilst you were putting up Four losers in the gold cup .... Bitch !  |
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At least you admit it was a guess. Don’t remember seeing that thread though....
I put up Epatante at 25/1 as a thread in antepost so we both had a very profitable Cheltenham. Let’s hope we both are successful this year. |
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I never admitted it was a guess
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irishone19 Feb 20 23:11Joined: 22 Sep 06 | Topic/replies: 45,053 | Blogger: irishone's blog
Henry sent.one over last year that won on the Sunday at Cheltenham. Put the kettle on. The horse jumped right but thats been worked on and the mare has been trained for the arkle . The syndicate is all booked up for cheltenham and the rain in the uk this winter is right up her street. At 25\1 shes a bit big for an arkle winner but each way shes value. |
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Now where's your epitante post Hi bore ?
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He did,it's top of ante post racing
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Cheers pal
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Wonder if that run today might of convinced them to step appreciate it up in trip.
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"He then got tired going to the last and fluffed it, leaving it up to our fella. He has a good engine. He did it well in the end and we will go to the Supreme now I would imagine."
Willie |
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Seems to be getting slower.. surely step him up in trip, seems pointless continuing down the route the bookmakers want?
People haven’t even considered how slow he’ll be on better going? doesn’t jump quickly on heavy going? so how’s he going to get on on decent ground Ruby Walsh cracks me up putting people away when he talks about the horse |
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Hi Harry,
What did Ruby say? (I missed his comments) Thanks |
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Plenty on most podcasts and also on the sporting life after race replay
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Sorry lydia hislops bookmaker show not heard any podcasts
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Anyway I know it seems like no one actually has an opinion on the form book and want to be sheep to these people
However the question remains does anyone else share my opinion on he isn’t very quick at 2 miles and wants to go up in trip? |
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whats he got to beat ? he has beat the third fav the last two times so even if he needs a longer trip why do it now,only a really slow supreme would you be really worried
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I think he will stay further but after yesterday I think the Supreme will suit him.
What if the neptune turned out this year to be a more severe test of stamina than normal which looks possible? will that suit him and where would Galliard du mesnil go? |
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I agree looks easy money gazo but I’ve got a few that I think are at least as fast as him...don’t ask me for them as I want to bet them and am happy this horse is going to take the money now if running in the race
That isn’t what I’m asking though gazo do you believe he is a supreme 2 miler? or do you think he should go up in trip to be seen to best affect?.. I think he isn’t very quick at 2 miles myself and needs further, his form tells me he’s just average at 2 miles and is getting slower at that distance asterion forlonges looked a penalty kick last year but was slow and should of gone up in trip Anyway people will always be guided by betting markets it’s just the way it is... you ask why go up in trip now gazo? which is valid question when you’re looking at a 2/1 chance and my answer is because he is getting slower and doesn’t jump fast enough and when encountering faster conditions that will be more pronounced Duffy I think that gaillard horse should be running in the Albert Bartlett myself but they should run against each other Anyway I’m flogging a dead horse it seems |
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yes i think he is a supreme horse this season,will he end up running over longer in time then yes
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What if the neptune turned out this year to be a more severe test of stamina than normal which looks possible? will that suit him and where would Galliard du mesnil go?
Duffy I don’t know why you persist with this sort of line of thinking tbh he has won a 2m4f bumper on the snaff, surely that tells someone that has followed the game for years like you have, that the horse wants distance to e seen to best affect? |
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I wouldn’t mind the argument if the horse was getting faster at 2 miles but he’s getting slower, that is surely clear to some on here
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