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harry callaghan
12 Dec 20 17:28
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Date Joined: 10 Nov 07
| Topic/replies: 6,172 | Blogger: harry callaghan's blog
Long way to go but got a feeling this will be that bolox term they call the Irish banker in the ballymore hurdle

Appreciate it

Just got a feeling...anyway wonder if he’ll end up on the Mikael D'Haguenet route...be interesting if he turns up at navan next week with the trainer being a creature of habit

No doubt I’ve been sniffing glue but I have to say I just like himHappyanyway I despise aftertiming so will put one up for an interest thread
Happy Christmas
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Report irishone December 12, 2020 10:24 PM GMT
An excellent shout.Patrick has long been shouting the virtues of this horse . Back in his point to point days he was beat by envoi allen, apparently has a problem with anything new in its environment. Had to be settled in the bumper last march and might have hit the front too early. Learner and improver.5\1 TWAR is a bit tight imvho,toss up between supreme 16s or ballymore 7s. Great shout.
Report buddeliea December 13, 2020 7:54 AM GMT
Theres a fair few Irish novices that i have been impressed with this season.
Some not so obvious as the likes of Ballyadam,FH and AI.
Not sure their will be a banker next March myself.
Report sageform December 14, 2020 7:56 AM GMT
I can only see Envoi Allen as a banker as he is so far clear of any known opposition but I always factor in the negatives for a short priced ante post bet.
1. Non runner for whatever reason.
2. Falls or brought down. A significant risk for any novice chase but there might be a small field if EA turns up in peak form.
3. An unconsidered but unexposed rival excels itself on the day.

if we are betting nrnb for the Marsh then EA should be 4/6.
Report buddeliea December 14, 2020 9:14 AM GMT
Well i was thinking more in terms of novice hurdlers.

But yes, EA may be a banker for the Irish, i can see that.
Report sageform December 21, 2020 9:17 AM GMT
Which is the best GB trained probable in the Ballymore? I have just had £2 on Bravemansgame as all of the other shorter prices are trained in Ireland. 15 is probably a bit skinny if they do come over but will look quite good if they don't.
Report harry callaghan December 21, 2020 9:28 AM GMT
Might look good that yes, might look even better when Mullins bends all the punters over and pulls appreciate it out and runs in the supremeCrazythe normal punter will know doubt be bent over in one way, shape or form judging by past trainer exploits in bending over the punter. The mastersons have got a bit of class so you never know I suppose

This nonsense on the ferny hollow horse was a perfect example, as someone has been laying that on here for weeks, people clearly knew something wasn’t right with the creature
Report paulo47 December 21, 2020 10:28 AM GMT
Would prefer the Bartlett Sageform as have the 66s .
Report sageform December 21, 2020 12:30 PM GMT
If no Irish arrive for the Ballymore it could be 6/4 Bravemansgame and 5/2 Star Gate.
Report FOYLESWAR December 24, 2020 6:09 PM GMT
sunday sees appreciate it and ballyadam plus a load of highly promising could be anythings line up in the pp future champions novice hurdle grade 1 over 2m at leopards .
Report irishone December 27, 2020 8:37 AM GMT
Yes but you will have to wait for the Irish banker
Report harry callaghan December 27, 2020 1:55 PM GMT
Sickening I’m just going to shut my eyes and hope he goes the istabraq route from today’s race...
Report buddeliea December 27, 2020 2:01 PM GMT
He could win either, but more likely to face lesser opposition in the Supreme.
Report harry callaghan December 27, 2020 2:13 PM GMT
I’ll definitely disagree with that statement budd on this occasion

the supreme is always far more competitive with 7 or 8 horses with good chances every year, hence why firms like William hill offer 7 places on the race on the day

He’d be a penalty kick in the weaker ballymore which even on paper at the moment looks a weak affair
Report harry callaghan December 27, 2020 2:35 PM GMT
Sounds like Mullins will bend the punters over again...ruby walsh also said on that show with Lydia hislop appreciate it is a good bet for the ballymore and worth a bet, so no doubt at all they will put everyone away again, no doubt a nice touch from the bookmakers on their way to both...a standard trait that you could see coming...I knew when Walsh mentioned it it was probably time to be suspicious as he put people away his whole life him and Mullins
Report buddeliea December 27, 2020 2:52 PM GMT
Then we will have to agree to disagree mate.

Ballymore looks the stronger race to me.

I have AI for the xmas/supreme double, so fingers well and truly crossed.
Report harry callaghan December 27, 2020 2:57 PM GMT
Ah I see why the biased comments budd a common theme when people comment on the forum
Report buddeliea December 27, 2020 3:02 PM GMT
Its not biased Harry.
I have been far more impressed with Bravemans game, Cape Gentleman,Star Gate and Bob Olinger to name 4, than i have with Dusart, Ballyadam etc.
Report 04arsenalfc. December 27, 2020 3:03 PM GMT
Harry you clearly know your stuff on the Irish racing from the previous posts seen of yours. Out of interest why would you say that the Supreme is a stronger race than the Ballymore. (Both looks weak enough at the moment imo) I do feel as though Bob Olinger could be a very decent horse and a big danger in the ballymore.

Before today seeing as Ferny Hollow looks an unlikely runner Mullins didn't really have a solid runner. I think today changes that & after seeing the performance today I see no reason as to why they'd step the horse up in trip. Horse has everything I think that was easily the best hurdling performance we've seen from the Mullins stable.

As you say the "plan" for Appreciate It has been the Ballymore. Just wondered if think todays performance changes your opinion?

Wondered your thoughts on Shewearsitwell too? Was my NAP for the mares hurdles but seems as thought something may be amiss considering she's not had an entry for a good couple of months?
Report buddeliea December 27, 2020 3:05 PM GMT
Thats why i chose the Supreme for the double rather than the Ballymore.

I thought if he beat Ballyadam(current fav),as i epected him to, added to my opinion on both nov races, then Supreme made more sense.
Report 04arsenalfc. December 27, 2020 3:20 PM GMT
Ballyadam has been one I've not been taken with at all so far this season was happy to take him on today. The "grade 1" he won beating Ngolo was a real poor affair for me.

Feel as though he'd be better suited for a step up - I dont think he jumps as slick he needs to at the top level. Bob Olinger for me would be a real good E/W bet for me in the Ballymore if Appreciate It takes the supreme route. I've not been impressed with many of the Mullins horses this season feel he hasn't got anywhere near the calibre of horse he use to however Appreciate it / Monkfish have been the two who have stood out for me so far. (Not rocket science I know) I'm expecting a big run from Allaho tomorrow however feel he is way overpriced.
Report harry callaghan December 27, 2020 3:57 PM GMT
Bravemansgame? Nice horse but no more, cape gentleman no doubt end up in a handicap off of 136...star gate nice horse but yet to prove much and Bob olinger nothing outstanding at this stage and did less than he did on his debut, so I don’t need telling what race appreciate it should be running in in regards competitiveness

What annoys me budd is your comment in regards the races in regards supreme and ballymore when you have followed the festival for years and know how competitive a supreme ends up every year but you don’t because you have struck a bet on the other race and it suits on this occasion because of you’re double

ask asterion forlonges connections last year who were fooled into thinking they had a speed horse, their are always 7/8 improving types every year in a supreme but you don’t talk like that, you talk through you’re pocket like everyone did on here last year with envoi Allen, talking nonsense in regards him staying..
Invariably the ballymore isn’t a test of stamina and is a lesser race competitive wise, with slower horses but suits types like envoi Allen because of the tempo of the race and is also not such a cavalry charge with luck in running not needed like a supreme...ask yourself why istabraq who won the race today yet went to the ballymore? Why because it is an easier race every year and preserves a good horse

I have no doubt types like Bob olinger, appreciate it and other likely types can win a supreme but it doesn’t always mean they have to go and put the gun to a horses head in a far more competitive race and it is every year, in fact I can’t remember an easy supreme

04Arsenal - desperate times for you boys , I have to watch every game as the mrs is an ardent fan, best you’ve played all season yesterday and the first time they moved the ball through the lines all season...fingers crossed the boot cleaner arteta carries on with the kids, the mrs is so miserable when they get beat although she won a few quid yesterday, bets them every time

In regards what I thought of today in regards appreciate it...well the favourite did no running and he got all the best of it where he was positioned on the track...on paper for me it was a poor race bar ballyadam who I didn’t actually rate that highly myself...

The thing I noticed more was he was pushed along before the last flight that was omitted, so it was more staying that won him the race rather than a flashy on the bridal type speed horse, of course staying horses do win supremes and he will have a very good chance the betting tells you that but I don’t actually think he is actually a real monster just a nice type...the time was just ok today considering he missed the last flight, so I personally wouldn’t be in a rush to get on for the supreme but I never bet the supreme at this stage anyway, as their will be good horses who we haven’t seen yet or we haven’t seen their full potential and invariably the race is a very tough betting heat and in all honesty the only thing a punter gets at this stage with the supreme is a price edge and no more because he will be looking at 7/10 horses come the day that can step forward...all the best if you wager him at this stage...I do have a bit on him for supreme but from a form point of view I know which race he’d be running in, like I say though the supreme is a lottery

In regards shewearsitwell I know Walsh is part of this partnership but he did mention on that show she had a slight injury but she would be ok...what that means pal I wouldn’t know, he said she’d be back for Cheltenham but if you can get you’re money that’s what I’d do...she looks a lovely prospect although I don’t know enough about her yet I like to watch them for a bit before forming a proper impression
Report sageform December 27, 2020 4:01 PM GMT
Willie will run his best novice in the Supreme and this looks the one so far.
Report buddeliea December 27, 2020 4:02 PM GMT
Well i aint going to write an essay explaining how wrong you are judging me Harry.
Its up to you.
Just to say, you have me totally wrong.

Wish you luck.
Report harry callaghan December 27, 2020 7:21 PM GMT
No worries budd but I still think the supreme novices hurdle is the hardest championship race at the festival bar none betting wise plus competitive wise and will be again come race time and think people need their head testing taking the poultry offer of 3/1 on appreciate it for that race after today and I do have minor money on him for that, it was just an ok performance against those horses he’s a stayer for me at this stage...we will see flashier types leading up to the race will come into the reckoning I’m certain of it

Mullins comments I’m not sure I’ve ever heard a trainer use the words dour in a supreme winner but Mullins does

He said: "He's not flashy. Ferny Hollow is a lot more flashy at home and on the racecourse, but this fellow is much more dour. He has a huge cruising speed and covers a lot of ground. He is able to burn horses off, which is what he did today."

I’ve got no doubts their is more scullduggery to come, so just be careful anyone playing multis because this trainer has sent more people down than judge John deed in the past, most will already know that mind you
Report buddeliea December 27, 2020 7:37 PM GMT
To be honest Harry, my thought start of season was Albert Bartlett, so have no worries about anyone saying hes a stayer.
I recall thinking the same about Champagne Fever years ago, and look what happened then.

I dunno mate, to me he could win all 3 novice hurdle races.
Yes, i hope Supreme, and surely they are tempted after today, but equally he could go Ballymore.
I only done the bet mainly cos i thought if he beats the current fav well then all of a sudden the Supreme comes into it, and that was the most generous of the odds available for the double.

Anyway, Weve been here before mate, with these novices and trying to work out which race, and no doubt will be here again.
Report harry callaghan December 27, 2020 7:58 PM GMT
Yeah we will see I want him in the ballymore as think that’s less competitive plus I make him 7/4 for that

ok so it doesn’t look it at the moment and the 3/1 may look a gift today but it won’t come March if he takes in the harder race which will be the supreme come race time, the only thing in ballymore backers favour is he hasn’t a runner for that but will have more at home that will become supreme prospects...

What price did you back the double budd out of interest? I’m always interested

Think we will have a new gold cup favourite after tomorrow in indo not that I’ve bet tomorrow’s race as it’s a gold cup in its own right..another brutal betting heat like the George on Boxing Day...not had a bet all Christmas apart from waiting patiently and I’d bet the rat cyrname a long time ago...want to just digest it this year and let the bookmaker hype take over bit like appreciate it today...even though you’ve backed him budd you must think like me that’s a nonsense price at 3/1 putting you’re bet aside I certainly do, as I have never had a problem picking the bones out of bets I’ve struck

Am hoping the good horse of Nolan’s can put it up that fish horse I just like the horse 16/1 him appeals to me but the ante post for proper money makes little appeal to me tbh
Report buddeliea December 27, 2020 9:06 PM GMT
Not great price, 14/1, but IF he does go suremexat least I will have the fav at a good price mate
Report buddeliea December 27, 2020 9:07 PM GMT
Yeh I would not be interested at 3’s
Report harry callaghan December 27, 2020 9:24 PM GMT
Fair play the nonsense now with how the bookmakers approach the festival i just find putrid...at least offer 5/1 to make it interesting not the sp return on the day, after all he’s no world beater the clock tells us that
Report FOYLESWAR December 27, 2020 10:00 PM GMT
backed the 2nd irascible  in todays race thought he ran a decent race for one with limited exp only his 3rd run .problem is as with the winner what race will he roll up in ? 33s supreme 33s ballymore  . no bet as yet will hold fire for now and have a think,
Report FOYLESWAR December 27, 2020 10:12 PM GMT
gonna watch the race back a good few times and make my mind up wether to play ,was running on strongly so a step up wouldnt hurt prob is bob olinger same owners .
Report buddeliea December 28, 2020 6:24 AM GMT
Looking at my bets for Supreme it would not be the worse thing for me if AI went Ballymore, as Keskonrisk is a big winner for me.
He has to improve a tad on yesterday, but thats possible.....different ground,course etc.
Problem then i would have though,is AI potentially ruining my Ballymore bets, which i must admit am happy with and would look a lot better without AI in the race.
Thats ante post for you though, and all part of the fun!!
Report miltons sophie December 29, 2020 10:42 AM GMT
Harry. It is obvious from reading your posts that you are angry and frustrated but accusations of the worst kind of pocket talk happen far too easily on this forum. Other forums have moderators and perhaps this one would benefit from them too. On what we currently know who are the supreme horses (behind Appreciate It) you would place above the horses Budd mentioned in the Ballymore  market, as while you have focussed on your view of the relative historical merits of both races at least Budd has named some actual horses for you to shoot down.
Report irishone December 29, 2020 11:07 AM GMT
.....and what ante post bets have you had sophie ?
Report miltons sophie December 29, 2020 11:11 AM GMT
Relevance?.... I’ll back the Irish banker when you name it
Report layingisthewayforward December 29, 2020 4:13 PM GMT
My only ante post bet for the festival apart from a few multi's is Appreciate It for the Ballymore.  I see he's now a strong fav for the Supreme Angry  I know he won over 2 miles the other day but has the trainer come out and said what the plan is in terms of Cheltenham?  Cheers
Report duffy December 29, 2020 5:26 PM GMT
I wouldn't fancy him for the Supreme myself because I think he has questions to answer regarding his hurdling, he is not a good, quick efficient hurdler, a number of times in his first two runs he has either jumped too big or, when getting lower has made mistakes, in a Supreme at a quicker pace with horses in and around him there must be a worry that he'd lose his position and get shuffled back and although he could outstay them if he survived that, on balance and at the likely price I'd be place laying him on the day in a Supreme.

The Ballymore is the safer option with regards it's more pedestrian pace and less chance of bad luck in running which won't put his jumping under so much pressure, although as some Ballymores end up being an actual test of speed late on you'd have to hope that there had been a decent enough pace allied with the extra distance to make it more of a test of stamina so he wouldn't get caught out by something with a bit more toe.

He looks a stayer, I haven't seen changes of gear, he traveled well in the Bumper and had 3 or 4 lengths on the winner turning in but just ran on at the same pace whilst the winner picked up well to run past him.

It looked like a staying performance the other day too, he was wound up to go on and go clear, the others all fell into a hole with Ballyadam who's previous win had already been ripped to pieces by the time guys being particularly disappointing, time will tell how good the race was.

The best race for him would be the Ballymore but I don't think he's in the Samcro, Envoi Allen, (he's a good thing let's find the path where least accidents could occur) category.

Personally I hope the February prep goes well and he runs in the Supreme (because this is Mullins and not Elliott who, if you'd backed him for the Ballymore you'd want him trained by) he then goes into the first race on the first day as a real shortie with the Irish money all piled onto the Mullins good thing and becomes a decent lay bet at the likely cramped odds.
Report buddeliea December 29, 2020 5:30 PM GMT
Laying
You probably wont know till the week before the festival!!
Report irishone December 29, 2020 6:41 PM GMT
As I thought sophie, do you ever put one up ?
Report irishone December 29, 2020 6:43 PM GMT
Personally I am deep on PTKO for the champion chase.

Other than that there is one certain winner .....COVID19
Report miltons sophie December 29, 2020 7:03 PM GMT
Fire Attack County hurdle
Report buddeliea December 29, 2020 7:34 PM GMT
ooh, i like it, straight in with a put up on a tricky handicap, 3 months before the race.
I shall take a look at that one.
Report sageform December 30, 2020 4:30 PM GMT
You will probably find out where most of the Mullins novices are going when the final decs. come out.
Report harry callaghan January 2, 2021 2:55 PM GMT
On what we currently know who are the supreme horses (behind Appreciate It) you would place above the horses Budd mentioned in the Ballymore  market, as while you have focussed on your view of the relative historical merits of both races at least Budd has named some actual horses for you to shoot down.


Miltons Sophie the question you ask above... I haven’t ignored you but like I said earlier, the supreme always ends up more competitive as more horses come to the fore in the second part of the season...hence why they bet 7 places on the day every year but to prove my point I will just add them as we go this year and we can say which race is more competitive come the day I haven’t posted it to shove it up anyone as have no wish to talk through my pocket...but I’d have an even monkey with anyone on which race will end up more competitive come Cheltenham week because the supreme is 5/1 on in my book to be far more competitive come race week and is every year imo

I’ll start with 2 today who weren’t really on peoples radar betting wise
Metier in the tolworth took a big step forwards from the gaff track races he’d won admittedly in decent times in those heats...he is now firmly in the mix

Gentlemansgame showed plenty of pace at cork today...a horse we hadn’t heard of unless you follow Irish points but an impressive performance none the less...it’ll be interesting if he improves from this after showing plenty of pace, of course it’s possible he’ll go up in trip but at the moment he’s now in the mix if progressing.

Anyway long way to go and I’ll add them as I see them and you’ll be welcome like others to shoot them down as you liked to put it, in you’re earlier post
Report miltons sophie January 2, 2021 6:40 PM GMT
Happy new year Harry. You argued the historical merits of the two races. Budd took a here and now view of them both.i felt Budd stuck his neck out by naming horses at the time. You are now using two performances today to bolster your argument. I am hoping Budd does not respond and refer to Barvemansgame challow performance which could arguably strengthen his view. Re Metier he was firmly on my list and completely agree and so ironically I was not entirely convinced by Budds view but felt the pocket talk accusation was really harsh for a poster i have a lot of time for. British novices are always on my radar as they often represent value imo. For the record i also very much like Boothill although the splint set back is a concern. I also agree that Gentlemansgame was impressive though his only rival pulled harder than a tug of war team. He may end up in the Supreme though he gave me the impression of being more of a staying type and is stoutly bred with a sire that tends to throw staying types out of a terimon mare. He certainly looks like a tool to go to war with over fences and its nice to see the trainer with a few really nice prospects again. 

As you say a long time to go and best of luck in both races.
Report harry callaghan January 2, 2021 7:21 PM GMT
All well and good miltons...my point however is not to fight a said corner but to merely say every price looks good at a certain point but when dealing with the supreme novices hurdle their are still lots of cans of worms to open, however you won’t see it in the ballymore to the amount we will see in the supreme it’s the same every year
Report irishone January 2, 2021 9:42 PM GMT
Lads , loads of unsupported comments made above which I have to take issue with .

"British novices are always on my radar as they often represent value "

Whats that then ? british trained , bred or owned ?

How do you measure the "competitiveness" if there is such a word of races ?

What are those measurements please say for the last ten years ?
Report miltons sophie January 2, 2021 11:29 PM GMT
tbf irish you take issue with many things...i have to admire your stamina. opinions sometimes are unsupported particularly when referring to something as personally held and potentially abstract as 'value'. What one person considers value another may not. i think thats fine. I believe the recent Irish domination has created a little recency bias in markets. Just an opinion or as you prefer just a guess on my part. i am not claiming it as a fact. Metier was available at 33s to win the tolworth and any race at the festival yesterday. I believe had this been a 142 rated Irish trained novice (particularly if trained by a high profile trainer) it would not have been available at such a price)). Impossible for me to support just a guess.

Another guess is that Metier will be given an RPR close to or even in excess of the 150 given to Appreciate It for winning the future champion but even if he is there is no way he will come anywhere close to replacing AI at the head of the market. Despite all this I have seen comments questioning whether the 12s available for Metier was value and questioning the sanity of anybody considering backing him at single figure prices.

I do believe AI is the most likely winner of the supreme (and have him firmly on my side) but i do not have him quite as far clear as the market does.
Report duffy January 2, 2021 11:52 PM GMT
Don't like his AI's chances in the Supreme myself certainly not at his price , hopefully the Irish money comes for him on the day and I can get a cheap enough place lay on him to get the ball rolling.

I think the Supreme is the wrong race for AI.
Report irishone January 3, 2021 8:08 AM GMT
Value is "personally held and potentially abstract" ?


Winning when betting is all about calculation of value.

You look at the price and take your choice.

How you calculate value as you say is personal, but potentially abstract ? Not in the slightest .
Report miltons sophie January 3, 2021 9:35 AM GMT
for some value is an abstract concept and not a calculation. perhaps a little more art than science or more of a feeling or an instinct. clearly not everyone maybe not the majority and presumably not you which is why i used potentially but perhaps it is for me and possibly others as well. Each to their own. I'm not sure you get to decide.
Report Hibore January 3, 2021 10:31 AM GMT
Irish as you are “deep in” on Put the Kettle in for the Champion Chase I’d be interested in your calculation there ? The horse is very admirable but miles away on form and ratings.

Serious question.
Report irishone January 3, 2021 10:45 AM GMT
Its not just about form and ratings

There is a volume of encyclopaedias detailing form and ratings misjudgements.

The question you may need to ask is that of the owners intentions.
Report miltons sophie January 3, 2021 10:51 AM GMT
completely agree
Report Hibore January 3, 2021 11:17 AM GMT
Knowing what is going on behind the scenes with a horse is very advantageous. I thought it was very possible she’d go to the Mares Chase instead.

Would you recommend an EW @ 20\1 ?
Report miltons sophie January 3, 2021 11:19 AM GMT
rubys trying to get her there. read into that what you may
Report irishone January 3, 2021 12:02 PM GMT
My thinking is ....
Champion chase £400k plus
Mares chase £120  plus

The horse jumps from fence to fence, she gets into a rythm ,shes not particularly quick, but she sets a pace and sticks on it, politilogue, frodon, other examples at Cheltenham. The recent flat race she ran in was right up Chacons street. Cheltenham is not a galloping track for me, she is not a galloper, she runs and jumps, stays remarkably balanced and no longer hangs. I am on at all prices so far hibore.
Report Hibore January 3, 2021 1:15 PM GMT
In your own words....multiple times.

Guessing
Report Hibore January 3, 2021 1:44 PM GMT
That was a bit harsh. Good luck with your bet and hope it wins for you.
Report irishone January 3, 2021 3:03 PM GMT
Thanks Hi bore

Was I guessing last year
Putting it up at 20\1 for the arkle
Whilst you were putting up
Four losers in the gold cup ....

Bitch !


LaughLaughLaughLaughLaugh
Report Hibore January 3, 2021 3:21 PM GMT
At least you admit it was a guess. Don’t remember seeing that thread though....
I put up Epatante at 25/1 as a thread in antepost so we both had a very profitable Cheltenham.

Let’s hope we both are successful this year.
Report irishone January 3, 2021 3:38 PM GMT
I never admitted it was a guess
Report irishone January 3, 2021 3:52 PM GMT
irishone19 Feb 20 23:11Joined: 22 Sep 06 | Topic/replies: 45,053 | Blogger: irishone's blog
Henry sent.one over last year that won on the Sunday at Cheltenham. Put the kettle on. The horse jumped right but thats been worked on and the mare has been trained for the arkle . The syndicate is all booked up for cheltenham and the rain in the uk this winter is right up her street. At 25\1 shes a bit big for an arkle winner  but each way shes value.
Report irishone January 3, 2021 3:53 PM GMT
Now where's your epitante post Hi bore ?
Report Bentring January 3, 2021 5:39 PM GMT
He did,it's top of ante post racing
Report irishone January 3, 2021 9:09 PM GMT
Cheers pal
Report harry callaghan February 7, 2021 10:54 PM GMT
Wonder if that run today might of convinced them to step appreciate it up in trip.
Report irishone February 8, 2021 6:08 AM GMT
"He then got tired going to the last and fluffed it, leaving it up to our fella. He has a good engine. He did it well in the end and we will go to the Supreme now I would imagine."

Willie
Report harry callaghan February 8, 2021 11:33 AM GMT
Seems to be getting slower.. surely step him up in trip, seems pointless continuing down the route the bookmakers want?

People haven’t even considered how slow he’ll be on better going? doesn’t jump quickly on heavy going? so how’s he going to get on on decent ground

Ruby Walsh cracks me up putting people away when he talks about the horse
Report naraic February 8, 2021 12:18 PM GMT
Hi Harry,

What did Ruby say? (I missed his comments)

Thanks
Report harry callaghan February 8, 2021 12:37 PM GMT
Plenty on most podcasts and also on the sporting life after race replay
Report harry callaghan February 8, 2021 12:38 PM GMT
Sorry lydia hislops bookmaker show not heard any podcasts
Report harry callaghan February 8, 2021 12:46 PM GMT
Anyway I know it seems like no one actually has an opinion on the form book and want to be sheep to these people

However the question remains does anyone else share my opinion on he isn’t very quick at 2 miles and wants to go up in trip?
Report GAZO February 8, 2021 1:07 PM GMT
whats he got to beat ? he has beat the third fav the last two times so even if he needs a longer trip why do it now,only a really slow supreme would you be really worried
Report duffy February 8, 2021 1:19 PM GMT
I think he will stay further but after yesterday I think the Supreme will suit him.

What if the neptune turned out this year to be a more severe test of stamina than normal which looks possible? will that suit him and where would Galliard du mesnil go?
Report harry callaghan February 8, 2021 1:36 PM GMT
I agree looks easy money gazo but I’ve got a few that I think are at least as fast as him...don’t ask me for them as I want to bet them and am happy this horse is going to take the money now if running in the race

That isn’t what I’m asking though gazo do you believe he is a supreme 2 miler?
or do you think he should go up in trip to be seen to best affect?..
I think he isn’t very quick at 2 miles myself and needs further, his form tells me he’s just average at 2 miles and is getting slower at that distance

asterion forlonges looked a penalty kick last year but was slow and should of gone up in trip

Anyway people will always be guided by betting markets it’s just the way it is...

you ask why go up in trip now gazo? which is valid question when you’re looking at a 2/1 chance and my answer is because he is getting slower and doesn’t jump fast enough and when encountering faster conditions that will be more pronounced

Duffy I think that gaillard horse should be running in the Albert Bartlett myself but they should run against each other

Anyway I’m flogging a dead horse it seems
Report GAZO February 8, 2021 1:47 PM GMT
yes i think he is a supreme horse this season,will he end up running over longer in time then yes
Report harry callaghan February 8, 2021 1:49 PM GMT
What if the neptune turned out this year to be a more severe test of stamina than normal which looks possible? will that suit him and where would Galliard du mesnil go?

Duffy I don’t know why you persist with this sort of line of thinking tbh he has won a 2m4f bumper on the snaff, surely that tells someone that has followed the game for years like you have, that the horse wants distance to e seen to best affect?
Report harry callaghan February 8, 2021 1:52 PM GMT
I wouldn’t mind the argument if the horse was getting faster at 2 miles but he’s getting slower, that is surely clear to some on here
Report duffy February 8, 2021 1:59 PM GMT
Don't you think that there was every chance for a quicker horse to go past him yesterday, he set his own pace and not a very strong one I thought, before two out practically the whole field were sat on his shoulder and he looked like a sitting duck, he then even bungled two out but not long after that he only had Ballyadam left to see off.
Report GAZO February 8, 2021 2:06 PM GMT
how do you work out he is getting slower ?
Report harry callaghan February 8, 2021 2:28 PM GMT
Do you think he’s getting faster gazo? I know what I think

Duffy I don’t think there were any fast horses running in that grade 1 yesterday or any horses of any quality...the only horse who actually had any form was master mcshee and he did no running...ballyadam hasn’t run fast in his hurdling career...I don’t understand the speed figure given by the racing post just plucked from the air
Report duffy February 8, 2021 2:39 PM GMT
harry callaghan 08 Feb 21 14:49 

Duffy I don’t know why you persist with this sort of line of thinking tbh he has won a 2m4f bumper on the snaff,

I just don't always assume that the furthest distance a horse can win at means it should be the race distance it runs in going forward and that a shorter trip couldn't be just as suitable.

We always point out that often the neptune turns out to be a speed test and the supreme vice versa, if I thought toe was an issue I'd be worried too about the longer trip, I wouldn't naturally assume his stamina would conquer all.

As for the bumper win over 2.4, how many other top class 2 milers would be able to do the exact same thing to inferior rivals upped in trip, you'd probably lose count.
Report GAZO February 8, 2021 5:41 PM GMT
harry,you keep saying he is not quick enough or getting slower but he is winning these races and i have not seen any evidence that a quicker race will be against him or that he couldnt go quicker if needed,if anything it will help him.
Report harry callaghan February 8, 2021 7:51 PM GMT
You still haven't answered the question gazo so I'll leave it because I can't be asked with the empty room argument

It was quite a simple question that goes hand in hand with jump racing when horses improve going up in trip.

I asked whether people thought it was time for a step up after looking slow at 2 miles. You may think he's ok but I don't think he is and will struggle against a speed horse in the supreme but may offer more improvement going up in trip

When someone like you say he could go quicker they clearly didn't witness him ridden out at the same pace yesterday but I'll leave it and say you're right he's best at 2 miles
Report GAZO February 8, 2021 7:58 PM GMT
i thought i said he will end up over a longer trip but keep to the supreme this year because he looks the best around so why go up in trip
Report harry callaghan February 8, 2021 8:31 PM GMT
Yes you wanted all bases covered gazo, anyway you'll be right no matter what. Fair play good stuff
Report GAZO February 8, 2021 8:50 PM GMT
why are you not happy that he will probally go for the supreme if he is short fav and you think he is slow and got a few to beat him ? you must have a good bet on him for ballymore
Report Bentring February 8, 2021 9:25 PM GMT
Point and shoot if the others are not going quick enough for him,no juice required
Report harry callaghan February 8, 2021 9:51 PM GMT
Gazo I come on here occasionally to talk about certain types that interest me betting wise not many as I don't entertain many bets of substance.

I had the same arguments last year about envoi Allen and him not staying and he's a speed horse and any other amount of drivel I had to endure...

sometimes if I've read a horse right, I believe I know what is best for him. Now that isn't often on jump racing I will admit but I'll always be the first to hold my hands up.

Anyway it looks a given he'll run in the supreme and he may well win but for me he is not a supreme horse and is a stamina horse. If he'd won like a speed horse on Sunday id hold my hands up and say I got it wrong he's a speed horse which I shall also do if he wins the supreme but I'll be surprised if there isn't one or two to good for him although the betting days otherwise and obviously he's just a point and shootPlain

Anyway I'm boring myself now, so I'll leave you boys to count the cash.
Report sageform February 14, 2021 12:52 PM GMT
On the face of it Willie should win the first 2 races on Tuesday 16th but still over 4 weeks for things to go wrong.
Report irishone March 16, 2021 5:19 PM GMT
Well i did tell yer ! Galvin eas the irish banker
Report irishone March 16, 2021 7:19 PM GMT
irishone01 Jan 21 21:46Joined: 22 Sep 06 | Topic/replies: 45,806 | Blogger: irishone's blog

Whilst you are on Sophie .....GALVIN is the Irish banker...and you wont be seeing him until the day

Wink
Report irishone September 14, 2021 5:50 AM BST
Now in kerry national
And back at elliots
Listowel wednesday week
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