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harry callaghan
12 Dec 20 18:28
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Date Joined: 10 Nov 07
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Long way to go but got a feeling this will be that bolox term they call the Irish banker in the ballymore hurdle

Appreciate it

Just got a feeling...anyway wonder if he’ll end up on the Mikael D'Haguenet route...be interesting if he turns up at navan next week with the trainer being a creature of habit

No doubt I’ve been sniffing glue but I have to say I just like himHappyanyway I despise aftertiming so will put one up for an interest thread
Happy Christmas

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Replies: 98
By:
irishone
When: 12 Dec 20 22:24
An excellent shout.Patrick has long been shouting the virtues of this horse . Back in his point to point days he was beat by envoi allen, apparently has a problem with anything new in its environment. Had to be settled in the bumper last march and might have hit the front too early. Learner and improver.5\1 TWAR is a bit tight imvho,toss up between supreme 16s or ballymore 7s. Great shout.
By:
buddeliea
When: 13 Dec 20 07:54
Theres a fair few Irish novices that i have been impressed with this season.
Some not so obvious as the likes of Ballyadam,FH and AI.
Not sure their will be a banker next March myself.
By:
sageform
When: 14 Dec 20 07:56
I can only see Envoi Allen as a banker as he is so far clear of any known opposition but I always factor in the negatives for a short priced ante post bet.
1. Non runner for whatever reason.
2. Falls or brought down. A significant risk for any novice chase but there might be a small field if EA turns up in peak form.
3. An unconsidered but unexposed rival excels itself on the day.

if we are betting nrnb for the Marsh then EA should be 4/6.
By:
buddeliea
When: 14 Dec 20 09:14
Well i was thinking more in terms of novice hurdlers.

But yes, EA may be a banker for the Irish, i can see that.
By:
sageform
When: 21 Dec 20 09:17
Which is the best GB trained probable in the Ballymore? I have just had £2 on Bravemansgame as all of the other shorter prices are trained in Ireland. 15 is probably a bit skinny if they do come over but will look quite good if they don't.
By:
harry callaghan
When: 21 Dec 20 09:28
Might look good that yes, might look even better when Mullins bends all the punters over and pulls appreciate it out and runs in the supremeCrazythe normal punter will know doubt be bent over in one way, shape or form judging by past trainer exploits in bending over the punter. The mastersons have got a bit of class so you never know I suppose

This nonsense on the ferny hollow horse was a perfect example, as someone has been laying that on here for weeks, people clearly knew something wasn’t right with the creature
By:
paulo47
When: 21 Dec 20 10:28
Would prefer the Bartlett Sageform as have the 66s .
By:
sageform
When: 21 Dec 20 12:30
If no Irish arrive for the Ballymore it could be 6/4 Bravemansgame and 5/2 Star Gate.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 24 Dec 20 18:09
sunday sees appreciate it and ballyadam plus a load of highly promising could be anythings line up in the pp future champions novice hurdle grade 1 over 2m at leopards .
By:
irishone
When: 27 Dec 20 08:37
Yes but you will have to wait for the Irish banker
By:
harry callaghan
When: 27 Dec 20 13:55
Sickening I’m just going to shut my eyes and hope he goes the istabraq route from today’s race...
By:
buddeliea
When: 27 Dec 20 14:01
He could win either, but more likely to face lesser opposition in the Supreme.
By:
harry callaghan
When: 27 Dec 20 14:13
I’ll definitely disagree with that statement budd on this occasion

the supreme is always far more competitive with 7 or 8 horses with good chances every year, hence why firms like William hill offer 7 places on the race on the day

He’d be a penalty kick in the weaker ballymore which even on paper at the moment looks a weak affair
By:
harry callaghan
When: 27 Dec 20 14:35
Sounds like Mullins will bend the punters over again...ruby walsh also said on that show with Lydia hislop appreciate it is a good bet for the ballymore and worth a bet, so no doubt at all they will put everyone away again, no doubt a nice touch from the bookmakers on their way to both...a standard trait that you could see coming...I knew when Walsh mentioned it it was probably time to be suspicious as he put people away his whole life him and Mullins
By:
buddeliea
When: 27 Dec 20 14:52
Then we will have to agree to disagree mate.

Ballymore looks the stronger race to me.

I have AI for the xmas/supreme double, so fingers well and truly crossed.
By:
harry callaghan
When: 27 Dec 20 14:57
Ah I see why the biased comments budd a common theme when people comment on the forum
By:
buddeliea
When: 27 Dec 20 15:02
Its not biased Harry.
I have been far more impressed with Bravemans game, Cape Gentleman,Star Gate and Bob Olinger to name 4, than i have with Dusart, Ballyadam etc.
By:
04arsenalfc.
When: 27 Dec 20 15:03
Harry you clearly know your stuff on the Irish racing from the previous posts seen of yours. Out of interest why would you say that the Supreme is a stronger race than the Ballymore. (Both looks weak enough at the moment imo) I do feel as though Bob Olinger could be a very decent horse and a big danger in the ballymore.

Before today seeing as Ferny Hollow looks an unlikely runner Mullins didn't really have a solid runner. I think today changes that & after seeing the performance today I see no reason as to why they'd step the horse up in trip. Horse has everything I think that was easily the best hurdling performance we've seen from the Mullins stable.

As you say the "plan" for Appreciate It has been the Ballymore. Just wondered if think todays performance changes your opinion?

Wondered your thoughts on Shewearsitwell too? Was my NAP for the mares hurdles but seems as thought something may be amiss considering she's not had an entry for a good couple of months?
By:
buddeliea
When: 27 Dec 20 15:05
Thats why i chose the Supreme for the double rather than the Ballymore.

I thought if he beat Ballyadam(current fav),as i epected him to, added to my opinion on both nov races, then Supreme made more sense.
By:
04arsenalfc.
When: 27 Dec 20 15:20
Ballyadam has been one I've not been taken with at all so far this season was happy to take him on today. The "grade 1" he won beating Ngolo was a real poor affair for me.

Feel as though he'd be better suited for a step up - I dont think he jumps as slick he needs to at the top level. Bob Olinger for me would be a real good E/W bet for me in the Ballymore if Appreciate It takes the supreme route. I've not been impressed with many of the Mullins horses this season feel he hasn't got anywhere near the calibre of horse he use to however Appreciate it / Monkfish have been the two who have stood out for me so far. (Not rocket science I know) I'm expecting a big run from Allaho tomorrow however feel he is way overpriced.
By:
harry callaghan
When: 27 Dec 20 15:57
Bravemansgame? Nice horse but no more, cape gentleman no doubt end up in a handicap off of 136...star gate nice horse but yet to prove much and Bob olinger nothing outstanding at this stage and did less than he did on his debut, so I don’t need telling what race appreciate it should be running in in regards competitiveness

What annoys me budd is your comment in regards the races in regards supreme and ballymore when you have followed the festival for years and know how competitive a supreme ends up every year but you don’t because you have struck a bet on the other race and it suits on this occasion because of you’re double

ask asterion forlonges connections last year who were fooled into thinking they had a speed horse, their are always 7/8 improving types every year in a supreme but you don’t talk like that, you talk through you’re pocket like everyone did on here last year with envoi Allen, talking nonsense in regards him staying..
Invariably the ballymore isn’t a test of stamina and is a lesser race competitive wise, with slower horses but suits types like envoi Allen because of the tempo of the race and is also not such a cavalry charge with luck in running not needed like a supreme...ask yourself why istabraq who won the race today yet went to the ballymore? Why because it is an easier race every year and preserves a good horse

I have no doubt types like Bob olinger, appreciate it and other likely types can win a supreme but it doesn’t always mean they have to go and put the gun to a horses head in a far more competitive race and it is every year, in fact I can’t remember an easy supreme

04Arsenal - desperate times for you boys , I have to watch every game as the mrs is an ardent fan, best you’ve played all season yesterday and the first time they moved the ball through the lines all season...fingers crossed the boot cleaner arteta carries on with the kids, the mrs is so miserable when they get beat although she won a few quid yesterday, bets them every time

In regards what I thought of today in regards appreciate it...well the favourite did no running and he got all the best of it where he was positioned on the track...on paper for me it was a poor race bar ballyadam who I didn’t actually rate that highly myself...

The thing I noticed more was he was pushed along before the last flight that was omitted, so it was more staying that won him the race rather than a flashy on the bridal type speed horse, of course staying horses do win supremes and he will have a very good chance the betting tells you that but I don’t actually think he is actually a real monster just a nice type...the time was just ok today considering he missed the last flight, so I personally wouldn’t be in a rush to get on for the supreme but I never bet the supreme at this stage anyway, as their will be good horses who we haven’t seen yet or we haven’t seen their full potential and invariably the race is a very tough betting heat and in all honesty the only thing a punter gets at this stage with the supreme is a price edge and no more because he will be looking at 7/10 horses come the day that can step forward...all the best if you wager him at this stage...I do have a bit on him for supreme but from a form point of view I know which race he’d be running in, like I say though the supreme is a lottery

In regards shewearsitwell I know Walsh is part of this partnership but he did mention on that show she had a slight injury but she would be ok...what that means pal I wouldn’t know, he said she’d be back for Cheltenham but if you can get you’re money that’s what I’d do...she looks a lovely prospect although I don’t know enough about her yet I like to watch them for a bit before forming a proper impression
By:
sageform
When: 27 Dec 20 16:01
Willie will run his best novice in the Supreme and this looks the one so far.
By:
buddeliea
When: 27 Dec 20 16:02
Well i aint going to write an essay explaining how wrong you are judging me Harry.
Its up to you.
Just to say, you have me totally wrong.

Wish you luck.
By:
harry callaghan
When: 27 Dec 20 19:21
No worries budd but I still think the supreme novices hurdle is the hardest championship race at the festival bar none betting wise plus competitive wise and will be again come race time and think people need their head testing taking the poultry offer of 3/1 on appreciate it for that race after today and I do have minor money on him for that, it was just an ok performance against those horses he’s a stayer for me at this stage...we will see flashier types leading up to the race will come into the reckoning I’m certain of it

Mullins comments I’m not sure I’ve ever heard a trainer use the words dour in a supreme winner but Mullins does

He said: "He's not flashy. Ferny Hollow is a lot more flashy at home and on the racecourse, but this fellow is much more dour. He has a huge cruising speed and covers a lot of ground. He is able to burn horses off, which is what he did today."

I’ve got no doubts their is more scullduggery to come, so just be careful anyone playing multis because this trainer has sent more people down than judge John deed in the past, most will already know that mind you
By:
buddeliea
When: 27 Dec 20 19:37
To be honest Harry, my thought start of season was Albert Bartlett, so have no worries about anyone saying hes a stayer.
I recall thinking the same about Champagne Fever years ago, and look what happened then.

I dunno mate, to me he could win all 3 novice hurdle races.
Yes, i hope Supreme, and surely they are tempted after today, but equally he could go Ballymore.
I only done the bet mainly cos i thought if he beats the current fav well then all of a sudden the Supreme comes into it, and that was the most generous of the odds available for the double.

Anyway, Weve been here before mate, with these novices and trying to work out which race, and no doubt will be here again.
By:
harry callaghan
When: 27 Dec 20 19:58
Yeah we will see I want him in the ballymore as think that’s less competitive plus I make him 7/4 for that

ok so it doesn’t look it at the moment and the 3/1 may look a gift today but it won’t come March if he takes in the harder race which will be the supreme come race time, the only thing in ballymore backers favour is he hasn’t a runner for that but will have more at home that will become supreme prospects...

What price did you back the double budd out of interest? I’m always interested

Think we will have a new gold cup favourite after tomorrow in indo not that I’ve bet tomorrow’s race as it’s a gold cup in its own right..another brutal betting heat like the George on Boxing Day...not had a bet all Christmas apart from waiting patiently and I’d bet the rat cyrname a long time ago...want to just digest it this year and let the bookmaker hype take over bit like appreciate it today...even though you’ve backed him budd you must think like me that’s a nonsense price at 3/1 putting you’re bet aside I certainly do, as I have never had a problem picking the bones out of bets I’ve struck

Am hoping the good horse of Nolan’s can put it up that fish horse I just like the horse 16/1 him appeals to me but the ante post for proper money makes little appeal to me tbh
By:
buddeliea
When: 27 Dec 20 21:06
Not great price, 14/1, but IF he does go suremexat least I will have the fav at a good price mate
By:
buddeliea
When: 27 Dec 20 21:07
Yeh I would not be interested at 3’s
By:
harry callaghan
When: 27 Dec 20 21:24
Fair play the nonsense now with how the bookmakers approach the festival i just find putrid...at least offer 5/1 to make it interesting not the sp return on the day, after all he’s no world beater the clock tells us that
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 27 Dec 20 22:00
backed the 2nd irascible  in todays race thought he ran a decent race for one with limited exp only his 3rd run .problem is as with the winner what race will he roll up in ? 33s supreme 33s ballymore  . no bet as yet will hold fire for now and have a think,
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 27 Dec 20 22:12
gonna watch the race back a good few times and make my mind up wether to play ,was running on strongly so a step up wouldnt hurt prob is bob olinger same owners .
By:
buddeliea
When: 28 Dec 20 06:24
Looking at my bets for Supreme it would not be the worse thing for me if AI went Ballymore, as Keskonrisk is a big winner for me.
He has to improve a tad on yesterday, but thats possible.....different ground,course etc.
Problem then i would have though,is AI potentially ruining my Ballymore bets, which i must admit am happy with and would look a lot better without AI in the race.
Thats ante post for you though, and all part of the fun!!
By:
miltons sophie
When: 29 Dec 20 10:42
Harry. It is obvious from reading your posts that you are angry and frustrated but accusations of the worst kind of pocket talk happen far too easily on this forum. Other forums have moderators and perhaps this one would benefit from them too. On what we currently know who are the supreme horses (behind Appreciate It) you would place above the horses Budd mentioned in the Ballymore  market, as while you have focussed on your view of the relative historical merits of both races at least Budd has named some actual horses for you to shoot down.
By:
irishone
When: 29 Dec 20 11:07
.....and what ante post bets have you had sophie ?
By:
miltons sophie
When: 29 Dec 20 11:11
Relevance?.... I’ll back the Irish banker when you name it
By:
layingisthewayforward
When: 29 Dec 20 16:13
My only ante post bet for the festival apart from a few multi's is Appreciate It for the Ballymore.  I see he's now a strong fav for the Supreme Angry  I know he won over 2 miles the other day but has the trainer come out and said what the plan is in terms of Cheltenham?  Cheers
By:
duffy
When: 29 Dec 20 17:26
I wouldn't fancy him for the Supreme myself because I think he has questions to answer regarding his hurdling, he is not a good, quick efficient hurdler, a number of times in his first two runs he has either jumped too big or, when getting lower has made mistakes, in a Supreme at a quicker pace with horses in and around him there must be a worry that he'd lose his position and get shuffled back and although he could outstay them if he survived that, on balance and at the likely price I'd be place laying him on the day in a Supreme.

The Ballymore is the safer option with regards it's more pedestrian pace and less chance of bad luck in running which won't put his jumping under so much pressure, although as some Ballymores end up being an actual test of speed late on you'd have to hope that there had been a decent enough pace allied with the extra distance to make it more of a test of stamina so he wouldn't get caught out by something with a bit more toe.

He looks a stayer, I haven't seen changes of gear, he traveled well in the Bumper and had 3 or 4 lengths on the winner turning in but just ran on at the same pace whilst the winner picked up well to run past him.

It looked like a staying performance the other day too, he was wound up to go on and go clear, the others all fell into a hole with Ballyadam who's previous win had already been ripped to pieces by the time guys being particularly disappointing, time will tell how good the race was.

The best race for him would be the Ballymore but I don't think he's in the Samcro, Envoi Allen, (he's a good thing let's find the path where least accidents could occur) category.

Personally I hope the February prep goes well and he runs in the Supreme (because this is Mullins and not Elliott who, if you'd backed him for the Ballymore you'd want him trained by) he then goes into the first race on the first day as a real shortie with the Irish money all piled onto the Mullins good thing and becomes a decent lay bet at the likely cramped odds.
By:
buddeliea
When: 29 Dec 20 17:30
Laying
You probably wont know till the week before the festival!!
By:
irishone
When: 29 Dec 20 18:41
As I thought sophie, do you ever put one up ?
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