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18 Nov 20 07:31
Date Joined: 09 Jan 11
| Topic/replies: 22,294 | Blogger: FOYLESWAR's blog
the annual speed test for  novice chasers with several interesting candidates from both sides of the water . supreme winner  shishkin is a short price imo considering the mayhem which changed the shape of the race 3 out 3/1 not for me .allmankind won well on his chase debut and interesting to see how he goes next time . could be a decent sized field as many will want to avoid envoi allen in the marsh . we dont know excactly how the supreme would have panned out if all had stood up and one at a decent price each way is willie mullins elixir d,anay who had some cracking form in top company in novice hurdles last season when splitting envoi and longhouse poet , 33/1 each way looks very fair imo. opinions encouraged fire away and good luck . i like a few bites of the cherry and hendos allart also looks a big price at 50s each way . selections elixir danay 33/1 and allart 50/1 both each way ..
Pause Switch to Standard View 2021 arkle chase .............
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Report harry callaghan November 18, 2020 2:27 PM GMT
Yes despicable like everything priced up by the bookmakers...I’m backing 2 horses this week for buttons who interest me at the odds but the way I read jumps both have got no chance
Report duffy November 22, 2020 5:21 PM GMT
Blackbow impressive today
Report harry callaghan November 23, 2020 1:37 PM GMT
Lovely debut but 6/4 in places already. One horse broke down and the other one eased from 3 out marvellous
Report duffy November 23, 2020 1:52 PM GMT
Mick Pastor was strangled I thoughtGrin
Report harry callaghan November 23, 2020 1:52 PM GMT
So did I Duffy
Report harry callaghan November 23, 2020 1:53 PM GMT
No doubt a new set of reins needed
Report Fashion Fever November 23, 2020 2:06 PM GMT
loved the way he finnished
Report buddeliea November 23, 2020 2:41 PM GMT
Perfect start, Jumped well.
Kempton next at Xmas says Hendo.
Report impossible123 November 23, 2020 2:57 PM GMT
Shishkin was very, very pleasing on his debut over fences. He just needs to deliver next March at Cheltenham; 11/1 double (any race) with Envoi Allen for a quick double would be nice.
Report Fashion Fever November 23, 2020 3:01 PM GMT
strange really you'd think he would frighten most to the marsh but then theres envoi Allen and vice versa
Report duffy November 23, 2020 4:23 PM GMT
Going to be interesting this year because there will be a bigger field in the Arkle this year, there's no novices handicap for any potential really good one to hide away for and no matter what Shishkin does, there will be more running in the Arkle to hide away from Envoi Allen than those who run in the JLT to hide away from Shishkin IMO.
Report buddeliea November 24, 2020 8:00 AM GMT
Hard to say that by the time we get near March, which one out the two would possibly scare off more potential opposition.

Personally i hope that connections of horses that have proved up to a challenge of the Arkle or Marsh will run their horses.
A bigger field Arkle with a few potential winners would be most welcome and a very exciting prospect, as would a Marsh.
My gut feeling is both will be relatively small fields, i hope i am wrong.

Shiskin and EA both to me look serious novice chasers with potential to reach the very top in their respective spheres, but we have a while to go for others to stake a claim.
Exciting times!!
Report FOYLESWAR November 24, 2020 8:14 AM GMT
every chance shish and envoi could meet one day ,shish bred for further won a 3m point , 2 4 miles would be ideal for both hopefully a clash somewhere along the line. a denman kauto type clash would go down well with media and racefans .
Report buddeliea November 24, 2020 9:00 AM GMT
It would Foyles, but the way Hendo is talking he very much sees Shishkin as a proper 2 miler, whilst EA seems to be heading towards 3 miles.
Early days, but it would surprise me if they ever met.
Report harry callaghan November 24, 2020 9:13 AM GMT
I think in a year where many horses didn’t go to punchestown, fairy house and aintree and other top meetings that we will be dealing with far less injured horses and thus more horses to take these 2 horses on with, with competitive fields in both marsh and arkle similar to the rsa highly’s hoping for competitive racing and good betting heats and these 2 horses will be beatable as the market is still betting on uncompetitive betting heats like past years...

we will see, I think people are mad wanting to bet these 2 horses at the prices available myself without all the facts, that isn’t to say both cannot win or be exceptional like their potential says they could be but the odds make no appeal to me...
Report impossible123 November 24, 2020 1:13 PM GMT
Shishkin is the timely replacement for Altior just as the latter was for Sprinter Sacre; Envoi Allen is heading for the Marsh and little doubt Gold Cup next year.

I do not think they will ever meet in the future unless their promise is curtailed for unforeseen reason.
Report sageform December 3, 2020 9:37 PM GMT
Shishkin does look clear of the rest so far but 20/1 bar one on the exchange is surely excessive. What ever wins the Henry VIII on Saturday will surely be cut to 12/1 or so unless there are multiple falls. I am hoping it is either Allmankind or Eldorado Allen. 6lb is a bit stingy as a 4yo allowance at this time of year so it might well be EA who will love the uphill finish.
Report paulo47 December 4, 2020 9:11 AM GMT
Hope it is EA too , merely to pay a compliment to Gumball who was (mostly ) vastly superior last time . For sentimental reasons  Allmankind is acceptable too .
Report sageform December 4, 2020 11:57 AM GMT
EA would have taken Gumball up the hill, much as I am a fan of both of them. Gumball barely gets 2 miles.
Report paulo47 December 4, 2020 4:22 PM GMT
Haha I will just quote Timeform ...' Fortuitous winner ....'
Report sageform December 5, 2020 4:20 PM GMT
Still have my 25/1 Arkle bet on Allmankind though. EA, like nearly all of Tizzard's. ran very flat today.
Report FOYLESWAR December 9, 2020 5:04 PM GMT
elixir reportedly had a setback not sure of the extent  , so have cashed out my bets ,can always go back in if wellbeing confirmed .
Report miltons sophie December 9, 2020 7:31 PM GMT
First captain Guinness now ed.... not blessed with luck these two. Hopefully Friday will bring about a change of luck
Report buddeliea December 12, 2020 11:46 AM GMT
Luck seems to have changed for Captain Guinness and fingers crossed hes over the heart problem.
Certainly looked ok, that was very impressive to my eye.
Looks a big player for the Arkle
Report FOYLESWAR December 18, 2020 7:59 AM GMT
having put up elixir  danay i have cashed out that bet with no loss thankfully . a lot of water to pass under the bridge and i was impressed by energumene at gowran , absolutly bolted up and won very easily and looked a usefull one right enough , might not have beaten much but mullins seems to like him and his jumping was very good also breezed up in his only hurdle run also at gowran winning by near 20l ,townend was impressed and said after the last day he would have no problem dropping back to 2m or he could easily go up in trip he has such a relaxed way of galloping .
obviously a risk as to where he ends up but he has an entry over 2m at christmas at leopardstown and a limerick entry on the same day at 2.4 miles he is 5/4 for the 2m gig and 10/1 for the limerick race . he can be backed at 20/1 for the arkle which i have had some of each way .
shishkin a hot fav here but at the prices i would rather take a chance with this fella each way .
Report FOYLESWAR December 18, 2020 3:12 PM GMT
that was pleasing from allart had a few quid on for the marsh as well each way at 33s ..........decent performance .
Report FOYLESWAR December 18, 2020 4:57 PM GMT
as said backed allart for arkle and marsh so naturally hendo will aim him at the rsa .
Report impossible123 December 18, 2020 9:19 PM GMT
Did Hendo not say Fusil Raffles going for the Marsh? Then again lately it's prudent to take what Hendo says with a big pinch of salt.
Report buddeliea December 19, 2020 7:50 AM GMT
Yep FR going Marsh i think.
Hard to say re Allart.
My guess would be Marsh as well if he goes to Cheltenham.
That was very soft yesterday, and he finished the race really well.
All his form is on soft though, it maybe one of those late decisions as to which race.
Report impossible123 December 19, 2020 1:07 PM GMT
Great value to be had if one opposes Envoi Allen, and hits the jackpot - a contrarian's best wish.
Report sageform December 20, 2020 2:19 PM GMT
Lay EA until the overnight stage and then back him for a small loss if he runs.
Report harry callaghan December 27, 2020 1:38 PM GMT
Well looks a proper machine over fences this shishkin that was a proper performance so fluent...nice to watch a proper horse like that
Report buddeliea December 27, 2020 1:45 PM GMT
This is one serious horse Harry.
Report sageform December 27, 2020 3:58 PM GMT
Looks it so far but it might be a different story if Allmankind is 20 lengths ahead at the top of the hill.
Report buddeliea December 27, 2020 4:07 PM GMT
He wont be.
Report buddeliea December 27, 2020 4:10 PM GMT
I am on Captain Guinness at nice price, but i just cannot see Shishkin getting beat to be honest.
But hey, novice chasers, you just never know.
Report FOYLESWAR December 27, 2020 4:31 PM GMT
sky were offering in their special ante post doubles envoi and shish to win any festival  race by 1 length or more doubt its still there
Report duffy December 27, 2020 5:09 PM GMT
If he's got an achilles heel it might be that if he's put under pressure to go the pace in a fast run affair, he could not travel as easily as Abas did in the Supreme and got outpaced, he had to be shoved along at times but stayed strongly, he's was very much like Altior in that regard

If he is put under pressure by something setting a strong pace and forced to get after it his jumping could suffer.

A strong pace ultimately suits him as he's a strong stayer but he needs to survive the process of it to profit from it in the end.

He isn't the easiest of travellers through a fast pace race.
Report FOYLESWAR January 5, 2021 3:32 PM GMT
captain guiness, energumene, blackbow, entered for nov chase at naas at weekend
Report impossible123 January 5, 2021 3:41 PM GMT
I'm offering 4/1 win double on Shishkin and Envoi Allen to win at Cheltenham. Interested anyone?
Report FOYLESWAR January 5, 2021 5:41 PM GMT
shishkin won a point 3m? yes he could be vulnerable over the minimum i have cashed out my elixir bet and have had a decent go each way enermegene at 20s and to smaller in the marsh ,shishkin will be staying on but could as duffy says be outpaced at a vital stage ,may still be good enough but its a price thing for me .
Report FOYLESWAR January 5, 2021 5:43 PM GMT
one concern energemene only been right handed so far .
Report buddeliea January 5, 2021 8:38 PM GMT
Shishkin outpaced??!!!
Report buddeliea January 5, 2021 8:39 PM GMT
Did I actually read that? I think I need some different specs!!!
Report miltons sophie January 5, 2021 9:10 PM GMT
i think its the jock. i know he is not everyones cup of tea but i have got a lot of time for him, but he is like the ante carberry in that you often think his horses are going less well than they really are. there must be an in running angle here ... i wonder if anybody actually makes it a regular play.
Report duffy January 5, 2021 9:22 PM GMT

Shishkin was outpaced at various points in the Supreme last year and I'm defining that by not being able to travel comfortably at the pace the race is requiring without the need for the jockey to have to get after him, that happened. The jockey was so concerned that he switched the horse out wide to see if it would alter the situation.
Report miltons sophie January 5, 2021 9:30 PM GMT
Duffy ... have you watched the jockey closely. This is like an obsession of mine. i have studied this over and over. There has barely been a race where at some point it hasnt looked like his horse is in a little trouble based on the jockey movements. Its almost like a tick of his. ironically the one time i didnt see it is on Shishkin at kempton and i remember saying to myself there's been no tick yet this is going to sluice up.
Report GAZO January 5, 2021 9:37 PM GMT
the jockey pulled him wide because of a wall of horses in front of him,which was caused pretty much from a poor jump at 3rd/4th hurdle,he then got checked a little 2 out by a faller,never looked outpaced to me personally thought it was a great ride
Report duffy January 5, 2021 9:44 PM GMT
Look at the way he travelled through the race compared with Abacadabras, I know it doesn't necessarily mean one is outpaced and the other is not and I also didn't mean to conjure up images of the jockey having to throw the kitchen sink at him either.

I'll refine my comment to "isn't the smoothest I've seen through a race"

Milton, I'll pay more attention to Nico going forwardHappy
Report Bentring January 5, 2021 10:31 PM GMT
Was thinking after supreme this is gold cup horse,that he would step up in trip,thinking war of attrition and kicking King also Best mate.
The 1st 2 stepped up after after an Arkle and were high class at 2m add in sizing John.
The owner has Al boom photo who is 9 i think and next year shiskin could step up but Henderson has such a great way with 2 milers so can't see that happening.
I suppose the 2m division is a joy to watch as is this horse and trying to find kinks that aren't there,well not with the opposition anyway.
He is a monster from what I've seen and dare I say it could surpass both Altior and Sprintre sacre.
Will he step up next year,very unlikely,but the only thing that beats him are the fences and from what I've seen that's highly unlikely.
In reality the apart from him the division is crap.
Report buddeliea January 6, 2021 8:09 AM GMT
If anyone is finding ways to get Shishkin beat, i suggest finding a horse that could be better than him, or at least trying to.
I have had a bet on Captain Guinness for the Arkle......each way i might add!!
He was going as well as any in the Supreme when the carnage happened, and has since ran well and jumped well over fences.

All this talk about outpaced, not the smoothest etc just does not prevent him winning, even if it is true!! Which for me is not, and agree with comments from MS and Gazo. I have actually heard the comments re Nico before.
We also had this with Altior.....outpaced, flat spot or whatever, and it took a ripe old age and setbacks before he finally got beat over 2m.
Report sageform January 6, 2021 1:24 PM GMT
The only one likely to make Shishkin work is Allmankind who will jump and gallop fast for a mile at least. If they both run of course.
Report buddeliea January 6, 2021 4:46 PM GMT
Yes, Allmankind is another thats looked good jumping and ran well.
Report impossible123 January 6, 2021 4:54 PM GMT
Won a juvenile 2m Supreme, and the horse was outpaced? I thought Shishkin was shuffled back after the 1st hurdle. Then nearly jumped into the back of another runner; badly impeded by the two fallers infront ie Elixir and Captain Guinness after the forerunner jumped and swerved severely right at the 2nd last. Yet came thro to beat the runner-up who was going best of every runner.
Report miltons sophie January 6, 2021 5:58 PM GMT
i am finding myself agreeing with everyone which is pretty bizarre. What Duffy saw and Bentring alluded too was a horse that was outpaced or would benefit from a step up. forgive the repetition 99 jockeys out of 100 and Duffy would be right . Nico is the one in a hundred. I would be absolutely fascinated to see analysis of in running patterns of all his winners and compare it with other jockeys winners. I am convinced he would have the highest average variance between sp and highest in running price. Duffy when youve had a chance to stalk him like i have for the past few years i would be absolutely fascinated to hear what you think... dont forget sir
Report duffy January 6, 2021 6:10 PM GMT

I'm an I/R player on here and have been from the start of my time on here but I have missed the Nico situation, I'm going to take note though, and as soon as they reach the top of the hill in the Arkle and Nico starts shoveling on the coal, I;ll be lumping on Wink
Report duffy January 6, 2021 6:13 PM GMT
On the jockey issue that catches you out, Milton highlighted Carberry, the jockey that has personally cost me as I continued to be fooled by him was A. Lynch, he'd sit their looking like he had any amount and I'd be saying, you ain't fooling me, until of course he did fool me, he then comes under pressure and game over...he got me everytimeCry
Report miltons sophie January 6, 2021 6:59 PM GMT
i find STD is the same (thats not sexually transmitted disease btw)
Report sageform January 6, 2021 8:28 PM GMT
Harry Cobden likes to be prominent on a long rein and gets horses enjoying themselves in front and they are often much too short in running. Once another horse comes alongside, bail out.
Report irishone January 7, 2021 12:24 AM GMT
Siskin odds on doesnt appeal , wouldnt lay him either , not with the odds on shots recent record in the race.  Likely to scare a few off and thus a small field.
Report sageform January 7, 2021 9:20 AM GMT
Agree irish, Shishkin on ratings is entitled to be short but novice chasers fall, get interfered with, get brought down, get injured before or during a race etc. You are betting on at least 4 things not happening before you start on the opposition.
Report impossible123 January 7, 2021 10:53 AM GMT
Vautour, Douvan and Altior all won the Supreme easily, and were head and shoulders above the rest. And, I believe (and hope) Shishkin will be another too given his superiority in winning the same race last season despite a troubled passage throughout.
Report sageform January 7, 2021 12:01 PM GMT
But plenty of Arkle favourites have fallen or been beaten in the past.
Report FOYLESWAR January 7, 2021 1:00 PM GMT
lets not forget shishkin fell on his debut over hurdles at newbury, its fine margins ! not saying he isnt a good jumper he looked very good last twice but in the arkle he will or should have competition decent horses going at a good clip.
Report sageform January 7, 2021 1:46 PM GMT
Can any of you find out the name of a D Nicholson 6/4ish favourite that fell in the Arkle. Probably late '80s or early 90s. Only got to the fourth as I recall then fell a over t. I went to the racecourse festival preview night that year and was brave enough to stand up and say that 6/4 was too short for any horse in an Arkle and was well put down by the Duke who thought it was a certaintyCool
Report duffy January 7, 2021 4:46 PM GMT

Was it Mulligan???? went off 11/10 in Or Royal's Arkle of 97, who, after winning the Arkle went on to run in the Cathcart two days later.!!!
Report buddeliea January 7, 2021 4:55 PM GMT
As far as i am concerned the time to back Shishkin was before the season started,or earlier.
He was always going to shorten if he took to fences and ran well.
I never take the sort of prices he has been antepost,only in multiples,which i do have him in a few.
And i certainly would not back a novice chaser at odds on.

Hes certainly the most likely winner but as said anything can happen in novice chasing.
I hope Captain Guinness wins having backed him, but to be honest if Shishkin puts in a performance, i would enjoy watching that.
Report duffy January 7, 2021 5:07 PM GMT
Sybillin was a particular favourite of mine that I was sad to see get beat at odds on in an Arkle, got it back in the Tingle Creek at much better odds mind you...sorry for the historical aftertimeWink
Report sageform January 7, 2021 5:16 PM GMT
Yes that was it duffy. It was dominant all season (5 wins from 5) but got rid of Dunwoody on the day. He repeated the dose at Aintree. Maguire must have been injured. I don't think he was as short as 11/10 when they had the preview but I am a bit hazy after 24 years. I was not popular on that night but I was proved right. Those prices for a novice chaser are madness. It was the fence before the water from memory.
Report duffy January 7, 2021 5:23 PM GMT
Happy days eh Happy
Report FOYLESWAR January 13, 2021 5:18 PM GMT
got to say that looked , pretty good from enermugene today simon rowlands seems impressed by energumenes sectionals , on twitter post race .
Report jimnast January 14, 2021 4:35 PM GMT
foyles enermugene has been entered in both novice chases at the dublin festival.
Report FOYLESWAR January 14, 2021 4:50 PM GMT
thanks jimnast on one of my posts i said i had 33s enermugene just checked my accounts and it was actually 25s and 20s .......sorry ,an age thing !
Report jimnast January 14, 2021 4:54 PM GMT
not to worry the same offer still stands if you have had to much at those prices i will still take some off you Wink
Report buddeliea January 15, 2021 4:56 PM GMT
And i will have some too Foyles, if thats ok.

Ive only got CG against the fav, and hes obviously got to improve past Enermugene before i start thinking about Shishkin!!
I hope that better ground and Cheltenham will see him produce a much better run.
Report buddeliea January 15, 2021 5:03 PM GMT
I lied!!
i backed ED early on, but have more or less given up on that.
i also have a bit on Allart,but not sure he will even line up in this race, could be in the Marsh.
Report FOYLESWAR January 21, 2021 7:10 PM GMT
allart declared for 2.4 mile chase at haydock on sat , gonna need a miracle for the meeting  to go ahead
Report irishone January 21, 2021 7:15 PM GMT
Shishkin here
Report Anyska January 22, 2021 5:28 PM GMT
can't be having shiskin at odds on given what the 3 after him in the supreme have done since
Report impossible123 January 22, 2021 5:44 PM GMT
Douvan --> Supreme --> Arkle
Altior --> Supreme --> Arkle
Shishkin --> Supreme --> Arkle?
Report FOYLESWAR January 22, 2021 7:00 PM GMT
shishkin due to run at donny next sat,lightning nov chase
Report jimnast January 24, 2021 4:03 PM GMT
same race as sprinter won in his arkle season.
Report duffy February 6, 2021 2:19 PM GMT
Shishkin shifted slightly uneasily in his horse box through the last few minutes I thinkGrin
Report cryoftruth February 6, 2021 2:37 PM GMT

Looks like a major danger to me.
Report muse February 6, 2021 3:09 PM GMT
I had originally thought Energumene was going to be a Marsh horse, but that was awesome today.  I really fancy this to turn Shishkin over in the Arkle.  The scary thing is it will stay further and doesn't look like it will stop galloping.  This is a seriously talented horse.
Report impossible123 February 6, 2021 4:41 PM GMT
Energumene looked impressive. What a race this will be if Mr Mullins does not dodge a battle with Hendo and Shishkin? Energumene setting the pace, Shishkin bidding his time. It's who can quicken up the hill the clincher.
Report duffy February 6, 2021 5:47 PM GMT
Why would he dodge the battle? he'd be fancying his chances I'd have thought!!
Report impossible123 February 6, 2021 6:39 PM GMT
To me Shishkin's a confirmed 2miler, and a serious contender for the Champion Hurdle if heading there. On the other hand Energumene could even be better up in trip, and The Marsh could be an easier option despite the reputation of Envoi Allen.

Nevertheless, I'd like to see Energumene running in The Arkle to do battle with Shishkin. I hope they both turn up. My money will be with the latter given his Supreme victory.
Report differentdrum February 6, 2021 9:25 PM GMT
In terms of actual form Shishkin is only favourite for the Arkle on his Supreme win. There is little substance to any of his chase wins. It's all very well displaying vulnerability against second rate opposition in the first half of races but Energumene is a strong stayer and he looks a totally different level of opponent. Although plenty of Shishkin backers might like to see it there is no reason for Energumene to go anywhere other than the Arkle.
Report duffy February 6, 2021 9:38 PM GMT
Agree, it's the indellible mark that the Supreme win has left that has Shishkin at the mark he is in the market.

Energumene's time was better than CPS today, ruuning the races side by side the Dublin Chase was ahead for much of the way before the Arkle finished better, this with Energumene being eased half way up the run in. I;m staring at the 11/4 and wondering what I'm missing.
Report muse February 6, 2021 9:44 PM GMT
That's an interesting point of reference "impossible123", because some people seem to thing it is a common progression.  Of course, Douvan and Altior did that double in consecutive years recently.  But I cannot recall any other horse that has done so since Flyingbolt, back when the Supreme was run in 2 divisions (so there were 2 winners each year).  This may be a statistical blip - the London bus effect where none come for ages and then you get two together.  I have not got time right now to look into how many have tried.  And I am not for a moment saying winning the Supreme is a negative (Best Mate and Champagne Fever are 2 that spring to mind who could plausibly have done that same double with a bit more luck).  But I find it hard to see how it is a factor that makes Shishkin a likelier Arkle winner than Energumene.
Report jimnast February 6, 2021 9:49 PM GMT
kicking king was 2nd in both muse
Report GAZO February 6, 2021 9:52 PM GMT
shishkin has run three very good ts numbers in his three chase wins,the second at kempton being quicker than nuba negra and altior
Report Hibore February 6, 2021 9:53 PM GMT
There was barely a second between CPS and Energumene today with one front running and the other stalking the pace. Townsend seemed to be practicing tracking horses up the straight with CPS...maybe mimicking Politologue in the race with Notebook. That’s what it seemed to me.

Arkle will be a cracker and Shishkin ran faster than Nube Negra in the Desert Orchid so both have timeform ratings with their more experienced Grade 1 opponents.
Report duffy February 6, 2021 9:58 PM GMT
I suppose with the onset of the intermediate chase, it makes it easier, a couple recently have won the ballymore and then won the jewson or arkle or won the supreme and then the jewson
Report jimnast February 6, 2021 9:58 PM GMT
bobsline v noddys ryde
Report jimnast February 6, 2021 10:00 PM GMT
that was no let down a mirror image over the last.
Report differentdrum February 6, 2021 10:02 PM GMT
However impressive Shishkin might have been on the clock at Kempton he was only visually impressive after Gumball fell in a hole. I suspect Energumene is unlikely to capitulate in a similar manner.
Report muse February 6, 2021 10:19 PM GMT
I think Shishkin is a very, very good horse.  But I think Energumene is every bit as exciting.  Certainly delighted to be on at a big price, and really looking forward to the race, especially if Allmankind runs too, which might not suit my lad, but will make it tactically all the more fascinating.
Report harry callaghan March 16, 2021 2:06 PM GMT
Just a lovely horse shishkin, wonder if they will ever contemplate going up in trip but highly unlikely I suppose
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