Cheltenham Festival
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my melon man! ...... the missus has had a few quid on this for the gold cup each way (she likes the name) is ruby walsh riding it ? no he retired !.........anyway after a bit of thought what are the chances of it lining up ? a fair chance seeing as willie has said he could step up in distance and mentioned the gold cup this horse obv has plenty of ability as his champion hurdle exploits show ,he often dissapoints at other tracks but at the festival in march he comes alive 4 runs and 4 places 2 in champion hurdles 1 in a supreme and a 2nd btn a nose in this years marsh in which he wernt stopping just nutted by samcro . we dont know if he will stay but he is 66/1 with some books its an insult for a horse of his ability imo , i have had to have a few quid each way myself at the price . at the price you dont have to put a lot on !
melon 66/1 each way gold cup .......opinions anyone !
melon 66/1 each way gold cup .......opinions anyone !
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tom segal in the weekender today talks about horses getting pigeonholed as one dimensional ie champ jumping ,cyrname righthanded etc ,many will put melon in this bracket and have a bit of a doubt in melon prob because of his 2nds at the fest , he has just been unlucky not to get his head in front imo just btn by buevair and samcro in close finishes is top class form ,no doubting his speed and class just the stamina ? for me but if wpm is thinking of a possible tilt at the gold cup that will do for on the stamina front ,
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isnt melon same owner as the favourite,they did run two in the supreme this year but al boum photo is going for three gold cups
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yes gazo same ownership but they seem to let willie do the training and go with what he says .
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Surely will be aimed at Ryanair. The Gold Cup is an extreme test of Stamina (bar last years crawl) and very much doubt it’s even on Willie’s mind for Melon.
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well willie says in his stable tour on the sporting life site "it would be great to convert him to a winner at chelt after 4 seconds there! he could go up in trip,he could be a gold cup horse,he jumps and gallops and stays well ,maybe the gold cup trip might suit him. hopefully he will get his head in front one of these days but at the moment i havent hardened on a target for him and we will see as the season progresses. not conclusive by any means but he aint ruled it out .
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I agree more likely Ryanair for Melon with WPM already have at least 2 decent challengers in ABP and Kemboy. Next years perhaps if he gets chinned again over 20f.
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Of course its all about the price.
Hes not priced up on his ability imo,i would think hes priced up on his likely, or more likely not, participation in the race. Obviously the bookies have taken the view he wont run in the Gold Cup. 66 is worth a go though Foyles, good luck. If they give 3m a go and he runs well, 66 will be gone. |
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I dont think you will see Kemboy in a Gold Cup again imp.
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I'd agree about Kemboy, unless APB is an absentee. Could the former be King George's bound?
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Probably run in ireland over xmas.
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its willie mullins bingo ,could go ryanaire or gold cup ,willie has form for running a fair few in the gold cup and some at big prices have placed .who knows whats on the agenda but i think he will go gold cup with melon ,melon will probably have 1 or 2 runs around irish tracks in graded chases and get beat so price shouldnt shrink but its the festival where he shows his best put it this way show me a better 66/1 poke at the fes!.
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I hope Mr Mullins needs to venture to Kempton with Kemboy. The race, track and distance are ideal for him esp if he jumps. It's also a winnable race.
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Anyone know why santini is not running Saturday ?
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going for the many clouds chase aintree ,said not quite ready for betfair chase ,a racecourse gallop at newbury tommorow
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Cheers foyles be interesting Saturday should be a good race
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yes harry small field but 3 top class horses , backed cdo at 6/1 last week each way 3 places , p.nicholls has said he has put plenty of work into clan i am hopefull that he is going there to win the race and not using it as a prep for the king george .
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Yes interesting race looks like you’ve got the place money in all probability...not really a betting heat for me but I’m expecting Bristol to make this a proper test and if he’s anywhere near 3/1 I may play him as just feel he is a monster round here on the likely swamp. Both clan and lost will have to be right on song to put it up him imo
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Something totally aside but I don’t suppose you’ve done the ten to follow have you
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no harry used to play it years back when it was in the racing post ,enjoyed it but when it changed it got frustrating with the new site freezing and other problems .
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Ah no worries I didn’t do it last year but decided to put a few lists in...such a shame it isn’t a tenner as the pool is only 100k to the winner...I still think considering how many old people like jump racing it’s a shame that they don’t do a paper entry but I suppose they don’t take anything out of the pool so easier for them on line, however it leads to a poor return compared to the million pound pot it used to be, I certainly think they are missing a trick but I suppose they can’t be asked with the admin costs...such a great comp me a friend got in the top 20 many moons ago but was as close as we got but still a bit of fun although I’ve dodged abracadabra which is probably a big mistake but like you prolly know it’s so hard to get the perfect ten
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yes it was and could again be a great comp , didnt get near any money but it was fun to have an interest and think i may give it a go next time .a few on these forums put up threads about it and its probably followed more on the social media sites , m needs to be publicised better and it could get near the past figgas of entries when it was in the post.
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No Gold Cup for Clan next year, no surprise there.
Trainer sounds confident about a big run Saturday. |
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yeah from what he is saying when he ran in his first betfair it was to dip his toe in the water to see if he was up to his level , missing the gold cup maybe he has 2 main targets, king george and betfair hopefully .
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I put one line in the TTF, got onto the bottom end of the leaderboard one year but no closer, shame it's not what it was.
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Duffy the racing post have publicised the top 20 percentage horses any idea how you find out where to get this information for for all the horses I can’t find it
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This what they published but how do we get the rest
1 Envoi Allen 65.1% of stables 2 Epatante 63.6% 3 Shishkin 54.8% 4 Honeysuckle 49.7% 5 Lostintranslation 46.2% 6 Cyrname 39.4% 7 Minella Indo 38.8% 8 Saint Roi 34.2% 9 Defi Du Seuil 31.6% 10 Altior 30.5% 11 Clan Des Obeaux 28.3% 12 Chacun Pour Soir 26.6% 13 Santini 26.0% 14 Champ 23.7% 15 Delta Work 17.6% 16 Paisley Park 16.6% 17 Monkfish 16.4% 18 Abacadabras 16.3% 19 Allaho 15.6% 20 Thyme Hill 12 |
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harry,
The final furlong podcast did a TTF special last week and they had a guy from the tote on the show who was going through the stats and telling them various percentages on selection of the horses. Jamie Benson is his name and his twitter handle is @JBenno28, he'll probably have the info for you. |
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Ok cheers
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Duffy just out of interest would you pay the tenner if it was the tenner to enter...I’m just wondering how people feel or do you like the fact it’s a fiver...the thing is I’ve got 8 but only because of perming but would be happy if it was a tenner as the prize pool would surely be bigger
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I’ve seen a few with 40 lists surely it would be far more skilful if it was a tenner
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I'd pay a tenner myself but I only usually enter one line.
If I started entering more lines I'd start to tie myself up in knots. The problem it seems to have is that back in the day it was very popular and in the build up to it there really was a lot of palpable anticipation to it's approach. It just doesn't seem the same thing this time around, they certainly haven't marketed it very well, it hasn't captured the masses imagination like it once did, which is surprising because it should be a real winner. |
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Yeah I agree but I still like to have a stab, just wish the prize money was bigger...they certainly need the paper entries and it be a tenner then they might get it back up near 300k to the winner they just need to figure out a good way of doing that
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wpm said melon will run in the john durkan he could be a bit better than his official rating ,he could go up in trip after this!
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“Everyone has seen how testing the ground was today and we’re not going to ask him to do it again.
Well you asked him to do it plenty of times before, inc here against Un de Sceaux a soft ground specialist!! Oh well, maybe its his age, Altior i mean, although.......... |
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One line for the fun and 4 have now won G1 races and one G2 while 3 have yet to run. Al Boum, Champ and Cyrname. 167 points so far.
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WELL DONE SAGEFORM AND GOOD LUCK.
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I have not given up on Thyme White although it would be a stretch to see him beating Epatante
 Newbury was not one of Cobden's better efforts and he got a kicking for his trouble. He is due to run at Ascot on 19th. Rouge Vif is the only other to run and he might find himself a nearly horse on that evidence. |
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What’s you’re list called sageform...I’m sick Altior didn’t run and win today could of gone near top in the 5k free comp list...my other lists are tailed bit like yours by the sound of it...
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happy with that drifted like the kon tiki but a decent 3rd ,a step up in trip willie?
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