Cheltenham Festival

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10 Nov 20 16:54
Date Joined: 09 Jan 11
| Topic/replies: 22,375 | Blogger: FOYLESWAR's blog
my melon man!  ...... the missus has had a few quid on this for the gold cup each way (she likes the name) is ruby walsh riding it ? no he retired !.........anyway after a bit of thought what are the chances of it lining up ? a fair chance seeing as willie has said he could step up in distance and mentioned the gold cup this horse obv has plenty of ability as his champion hurdle exploits show ,he often dissapoints at other tracks but at the festival in march he comes alive  4 runs and 4  places 2 in champion hurdles 1 in a supreme and a 2nd btn a nose in this  years marsh in which he wernt stopping just nutted by samcro . we dont know if he will stay but he is 66/1  with some books its an insult for a horse of his ability imo , i have had to have a few quid each way myself at the price . at the price you dont have to put a lot on !
melon 66/1 each way gold cup .......opinions anyone !
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Report FOYLESWAR November 11, 2020 10:02 AM GMT
tom segal in the weekender today talks about horses getting pigeonholed as one dimensional  ie champ jumping ,cyrname righthanded etc ,many will put   melon  in this bracket and have a bit of a doubt in melon prob because of his 2nds at the fest , he has just been unlucky not to get his head in front imo just btn by buevair and samcro in close finishes is top class form  ,no doubting his speed and class just the stamina ? for me but if wpm is thinking of a possible tilt at the gold cup that will do for on the stamina front ,
Report GAZO November 11, 2020 1:16 PM GMT
isnt melon same owner as the favourite,they did run two in the supreme this year but al boum photo is going for three gold cups
Report FOYLESWAR November 11, 2020 2:16 PM GMT
yes gazo same ownership but they seem to let willie do the training and go with what he says .
Report Hibore November 13, 2020 7:21 AM GMT
Surely will be aimed at Ryanair. The Gold Cup is an extreme test of Stamina (bar last years crawl) and very much doubt it’s even on Willie’s mind for Melon.
Report FOYLESWAR November 13, 2020 7:58 AM GMT
well willie says in his stable tour on the sporting life site "it would be great to convert him to a winner at chelt after 4 seconds there! he could go up in trip,he could be a gold cup horse,he jumps and gallops and stays well ,maybe the gold cup trip might  suit him. hopefully he will get his head in front one of these days but at the moment i havent hardened on a target for him and we will see as the season progresses.  not conclusive by any means but he aint ruled it out .
Report impossible123 November 13, 2020 1:19 PM GMT
I agree more likely Ryanair for Melon with WPM already have at least 2 decent challengers in ABP and Kemboy. Next years perhaps if he gets chinned again over 20f.
Report buddeliea November 14, 2020 12:05 PM GMT
Of course its all about the price.
Hes not priced up on his ability imo,i would think hes priced up on his likely, or more likely not, participation in the race.
Obviously the bookies have taken the view he wont run in the Gold Cup.
66 is worth a go though Foyles, good luck.
If they give 3m a go and he runs well, 66 will be gone.
Report buddeliea November 14, 2020 12:05 PM GMT
I dont think you will see Kemboy in a Gold Cup again imp.
Report impossible123 November 14, 2020 3:55 PM GMT
I'd agree about Kemboy, unless APB is an absentee. Could the former be King George's bound?
Report buddeliea November 15, 2020 7:16 AM GMT
Probably run in ireland over xmas.
Report FOYLESWAR November 15, 2020 11:09 AM GMT
its willie mullins bingo ,could go ryanaire or gold cup ,willie has form for running a fair few in the gold cup and some at big prices have placed .who knows whats on the agenda but i think he will go gold cup with melon ,melon will probably have 1 or 2 runs around irish tracks in graded chases and get beat so price shouldnt shrink but its the festival where he shows his best  put it this way show me a better 66/1 poke at the fes!.
Report impossible123 November 16, 2020 4:36 PM GMT
I hope Mr Mullins needs to venture to Kempton with Kemboy. The race, track and distance are ideal for him esp if he jumps. It's also a winnable race.
Report harry callaghan November 16, 2020 9:49 PM GMT
Anyone know why santini is not running Saturday ?
Report FOYLESWAR November 16, 2020 10:23 PM GMT
going for the many clouds chase aintree ,said not quite  ready for betfair chase ,a racecourse gallop at newbury tommorow
Report harry callaghan November 17, 2020 8:50 AM GMT
Cheers foyles be interesting Saturday should be a good race
Report FOYLESWAR November 17, 2020 9:54 AM GMT
yes harry small field but 3 top class horses , backed cdo at 6/1 last week each way 3 places , p.nicholls has said he has put plenty of work into clan  i am hopefull that he is going there to win the race and not using it as a prep for the king george .
Report harry callaghan November 17, 2020 10:36 AM GMT
Yes interesting race looks like you’ve got the place money in all probability...not really a betting heat for me but I’m expecting Bristol to make this a proper test and if he’s anywhere near 3/1 I may play him as just feel he is a monster round here on the likely swamp. Both clan and lost will have to be right on song to put it up him imo
Report harry callaghan November 17, 2020 10:39 AM GMT
Something totally aside but I don’t suppose you’ve done the ten to follow have you
Report FOYLESWAR November 17, 2020 10:52 AM GMT
no harry used to play it years back  when it was in the racing post ,enjoyed it but when it changed it got frustrating with the new site freezing and other problems .
Report harry callaghan November 17, 2020 11:02 AM GMT
Ah no worries I didn’t do it last year but decided to put a few lists in...such a shame it isn’t a tenner as the pool is only 100k to the winner...I still think considering how many old people like jump racing it’s a shame that they don’t do a paper entry but I suppose they don’t take anything out of the pool so easier for them on line, however it leads to a poor return compared to the million pound pot it used to be, I certainly think they are missing a trick but I suppose they can’t be asked with the admin costs...such a great comp me a friend got in the top 20 many moons ago but was as close as we got but still a bit of fun although I’ve dodged abracadabra which is probably a big mistake but like you prolly know it’s so hard to get the perfect ten
Report FOYLESWAR November 17, 2020 11:27 AM GMT
yes it was and could again  be a great comp , didnt get near any money but it was fun to have an interest and think i may  give it a go next time .a few on these forums put up threads about it and its probably followed more on the  social media sites , m needs to be publicised better and it could get near the past figgas of entries when it was in the post.
Report buddeliea November 17, 2020 12:14 PM GMT
No Gold Cup for Clan next year, no surprise there.
Trainer sounds confident about a big run Saturday.
Report FOYLESWAR November 17, 2020 12:41 PM GMT
yeah from what he is saying when he ran in his first betfair it was to dip his toe in the water to see if he was up to his level , missing the gold cup maybe he has 2 main targets, king george and betfair hopefully .
Report duffy November 17, 2020 12:58 PM GMT
I put one line in the TTF, got onto the bottom end of the leaderboard one year but no closer, shame it's not what it was.
Report harry callaghan November 17, 2020 1:24 PM GMT
Duffy the racing post have publicised the top 20 percentage horses any idea how you find out where to get this information for for all the horses I can’t find it
Report harry callaghan November 17, 2020 1:25 PM GMT
This what they published but how do we get the rest

1 Envoi Allen 65.1% of stables
2 Epatante 63.6%
3 Shishkin 54.8%
4 Honeysuckle 49.7%
5 Lostintranslation 46.2%
6 Cyrname 39.4%
7 Minella Indo 38.8%
8 Saint Roi 34.2%
9 Defi Du Seuil 31.6%
10 Altior 30.5%
11 Clan Des Obeaux 28.3%
12 Chacun Pour Soir 26.6%
13 Santini 26.0%
14 Champ 23.7%
15 Delta Work 17.6%
16 Paisley Park 16.6%
17 Monkfish 16.4%
18 Abacadabras 16.3%
19 Allaho 15.6%
20 Thyme Hill 12
Report duffy November 17, 2020 1:45 PM GMT

The final furlong podcast did a TTF special last week and they had a guy from the tote on the show who was going through the stats and telling them various percentages on selection of the horses.

Jamie Benson is his name and his twitter handle is @JBenno28, he'll probably have the info for you.
Report harry callaghan November 17, 2020 2:48 PM GMT
Ok cheers
Report harry callaghan November 17, 2020 3:21 PM GMT
Duffy just out of interest would you pay the tenner if it was the tenner to enter...I’m just wondering how people feel or do you like the fact it’s a fiver...the thing is I’ve got 8 but only because of perming but would be happy if it was a tenner as the prize pool would surely be bigger
Report harry callaghan November 17, 2020 3:23 PM GMT
I’ve seen a few with 40 lists surely it would be far more skilful if it was a tenner
Report duffy November 17, 2020 4:28 PM GMT
I'd pay a tenner myself but I only usually enter one line.

If I started entering more lines I'd start to tie myself up in knots.

The problem it seems to have is that back in the day it was very popular and in the build up to it there really was a lot of palpable anticipation to it's approach. It just doesn't seem the same thing this time around, they certainly haven't marketed it very well, it hasn't captured the masses imagination like it once did, which is surprising because it should be a real winner.
Report harry callaghan November 17, 2020 4:39 PM GMT
Yeah I agree but I still like to have a stab, just wish the prize money was bigger...they certainly need the paper entries and it be a tenner then they might get it back up near 300k to the winner they just need to figure out a good way of doing that
Report FOYLESWAR December 4, 2020 10:50 PM GMT
wpm said melon will run in the john durkan he could be a bit better than his official rating ,he could go up in trip after this!
Report buddeliea December 5, 2020 6:19 AM GMT
“Everyone has seen how testing the ground was today and we’re not going to ask him to do it again.

Well you asked him to do it plenty of times before, inc here against Un de Sceaux a soft ground specialist!!

Oh well, maybe its his age, Altior i mean, although..........
Report sageform December 5, 2020 6:36 PM GMT
One line for the fun and 4 have now won G1 races and one G2 while 3 have yet to run. Al Boum, Champ and Cyrname. 167 points so far.
Report FOYLESWAR December 5, 2020 6:42 PM GMT
Report sageform December 5, 2020 6:50 PM GMT
I have not given up on Thyme White although it would be a stretch to see him beating EpatanteCool Newbury was not one of Cobden's better efforts and he got a kicking for his trouble. He is due to run at Ascot on 19th. Rouge Vif is the only other to run and he might find himself a nearly horse on that evidence.
Report harry callaghan December 5, 2020 10:04 PM GMT
What’s you’re list called sageform...I’m sick Altior didn’t run and win today could of gone near top in the 5k free comp other lists are tailed bit like yours by the sound of it...
Report FOYLESWAR December 6, 2020 1:58 PM GMT
happy with that drifted like the kon tiki but a decent 3rd ,a step up in trip willie?
Report harry callaghan December 6, 2020 2:04 PM GMT
Walsh said afterwards he’ll go up in trip foyles you can still dream
Report FOYLESWAR December 6, 2020 2:20 PM GMT
cheers harry missed the race ,but by all accounts you couldnt see much anyway ! happy with the finishing position .
Report buddeliea December 6, 2020 2:39 PM GMT
Talked me into a small e/w wager at 66 Foyles.
Report FOYLESWAR December 6, 2020 2:44 PM GMT
yeah budd  as said 66 too big for a horse that loves chelt ,he has class form at the festival obv we dont know if he will stay but couldnt be in better hands !
Report sageform December 7, 2020 10:08 AM GMT
harry, Sageform of courseCool
Report harry callaghan December 7, 2020 10:24 AM GMT
Yeah I found you...shame weekend thought I may of lead the free comp but one tailed and Altior didn’t run...unless I can get the welsh national winner and king George winner which is unlikely looks like I’ll be tailed in the outright big one I’m afraid to far back I’m afraid
Report buddeliea December 30, 2020 12:50 PM GMT
Well he gave it a right go did Melon, at one stage i was thinking he was going to win.
I think if he were held up a tad more he would have gone very close.
Maybe he dont stay well enough for a Gold Cup, but its not definite to me, and would not be surprised if he turned up in it.
Shorter than 66 now.
Report impossible123 December 30, 2020 2:53 PM GMT
I can fully understand horse racing is form and opinion based nevertheless, might I ask why posters yet repeatedly give chance after chance to horses that had already failed to deliver regularly? The result of the Savills Chase was fortuitous for A Plus Tard and deservedly so given the predicament of the 2 market leaders and a couple of others with merit eg Minella Indo, Delta Work, Presenting Percy and Samcro.
Report buddeliea December 30, 2020 3:15 PM GMT
Which horses you refer to?
Report Bentring December 30, 2020 3:46 PM GMT
You quote Al Boom champ both still to run and santini who has and you question others read what you've written and get back with reasoning
Report impossible123 December 30, 2020 4:11 PM GMT
ABP has done it, and will be following the same route as last season; Santini ran a stonker last year given his troubled prep; Champ (admittedly present no a concern) on his potential and ability to quicken impressively with speed after the last up the Cheltenham hill.

In a nutshell ABP/S/C: reigning champion; runner-up despite a troubled prep; potential after his very unlikely victory in the RSA.
Report Bentring December 30, 2020 5:04 PM GMT
Yes he has done it and is declared the stonker followed by stinker and another we don't know where or when it will turn up and you question others thinking which you don't do you rely on faith and go to war with the Champ (and 2 English others) when 5 of last 7 winners have been Irish Trained,the Savills may have a bearing or not but the race was run and those that performed well in it could have a say in the Gold Cup and poster's will talk about this as the race was run in a good pace and evidence ie there unlike giving more chances to a horse that is nothing like last season and one who hasn't ran and I will add didn't look like a gold cup winner as how he gets from one side to the other but then again last 2 winners have been like that so you never know,but I thought the 2nd and 3rd in the RSA we're the horses to take from the race as they raced each other from way before they should have (think long run and sir des champs gold cup I know )and we're picked up.
I know others will have their outlook on it but that's how I see it
Report Hibore December 30, 2020 5:59 PM GMT
Welcome to the forum Bentring. I’m not the punctuation police but the odd comma and full stop helps to read Laugh
Report buddeliea December 30, 2020 5:59 PM GMT
If anyone fancies Champ than they should really fancy Minella Indo, very little between them in the novice RSA, especially as we have actually seen MI this season and hes a better jumper than Champ, from what i have seen.
APT and to a lesser extent Melon have imo earned the right to line up, and APT has won a recognised race in relation to a fair few Gold Cups in the past.
I would include Kemboy but he dont seem to like the Gold Cup.
I will include Frodon though....if he jumps like he can throughout the race and can get home, which after winning the KG, to me is the only big question remaining

See absolutely nowt wrong with anyone mentioning any of these running big races in the Gold Cup, and if the Tizzards sort themselves out you can add LIT, and Native River who may well have a say in how the race is run.
Report Bentring December 30, 2020 6:19 PM GMT
Report impossible123 December 30, 2020 9:13 PM GMT
Can someone help with present Covid stay-at-home in Tier 4? Has it been extended? If so, how long for? Bojo nor Health Sec not forthcoming on that or I seem to have missed it.
Report Bentring December 30, 2020 11:24 PM GMT
Having watched King George again the winner was good,santini's jockey tried to do the right thing but Frodon was too quick away from the fence for him to keep it up.
In the end santini performance was OK,would I back it he'll no but then again I haven't bet anything yet.
The thing that bugs me is the retirement of Ruby and Geraghty and Townend is a fantastic jockey but can only ride one.
The rest in England are a much of a muchness and that only leaves Rachel.
Robert Power as great a jockey that he is the Tizard stable could do with a few winner's and possibly a new horse as it's more lost in space.
Report Bentring December 30, 2020 11:30 PM GMT
Sorry new tablet here,well I will keep my powder dry until it's more clearer but with those two I mentioned it was comforting when they we're riding obviously not just in this race.
Report duffy December 31, 2020 12:38 AM GMT
Ironic that both those two jockeys got regularly told to retire on these forums, now we see what we're missing.
Report impossible123 December 31, 2020 11:03 AM GMT
Geraghty? Are you for real. Walsh is ok. The flipside is his mounts did not represent value; last hurdle/fence calamity occurring too often for my liking.

Townend is no Walsh. Bring back Francome; Rachel and Bryony have brains, and horses run for them.
Report Bentring December 31, 2020 11:18 AM GMT
Covid is a word you mentioned,is memory loss a symptom
Report Bentring March 21, 2021 1:51 AM GMT
Remember those imortal words Hibore 'Welcome to the Forum Bentring' Remember that post Dec 30th 2020 5:04 PM GMT lol
Report irishone March 21, 2021 7:42 AM GMT
Hi bore sees himself as the leader of the forum
When he wrote ......
"We had a good go last year with 12/1 Santini and 14/1 Lostintranslation."
..... to try and cover up the fact he put up four in the race...
And just about covered his stake.That was a giveaway.?

There has then been pathetic appeals to his inbetweener "friends" on here to help him out.

The allegiance to poison nicky this year , and his pathetic utterings about what he had on champ and santini were proved to be lies.

Then he follows up a disastrous Year with an aftertimed "i had a winning patent".

Scum, not worth talking to.
Report duffy March 21, 2021 2:26 PM GMT
but you willMischief
Report irishone March 21, 2021 3:39 PM GMT
Not anymore Duffy
Him and that other pollutant Impossible
Demonstrate on here
Day after day
That they are so far up their own backsides....
And there is no light at the end of that tunnel
Report Hibore March 21, 2021 5:42 PM GMT
Bentring 21 Mar 21 02:51
Remember those imortal words Hibore 'Welcome to the Forum Bentring' Remember that post Dec 30th 2020 5:04 PM GMT lol

Heard you were knocking on doors offering to trim hedges or cut grass. Thought you might be a useful contact on here.

Immortal has two M’s by the way.
Report penzance March 21, 2021 6:22 PM GMT
genuinly hope this forum doesn't become toxic.
I come on these to talk horse racing.
People back winners,people back losers.
Life goes on.
Report duffy March 21, 2021 6:36 PM GMT
Just the normal mix of characters and egos you'd expect to get when a large group of mainly men get together in an environment where opinions are given.

Bound to get heated debates/rucks.

All par for the course.
Report Hibore March 21, 2021 7:35 PM GMT
Having a multi forum troll who argues with 95% of the posters unless they agree with his anti-British or anti-Henderson crap doesn’t help. Not many call him out when he spouts his lies and racism either.

If you don’t want this place to descend into an even more toxic environment then you need to tell him to concentrate on horses rather than trying to belittle people. I’ll ignore him going forward unless he starts up again.

Otherwise I’m afraid things will stay the same for another year.
Report Bentring March 21, 2021 8:22 PM GMT
Hibore you're at it again,you welcomed me to the forum(is it your forum)and then belittled my grammar,you then call on other's to round up on a forum poster,then you belittle me again with a crass remark about calling on people's doors I assume this was a racist remark aimed at an ethnic minority group.
I posted an opinion at the time on what I thought,it was written the best and fastest way I could have done,opinions can change they often do as more information is gathered but you and one other kept on about champ and santini and imo that was strange as the evidence was there for santini that he'd probably gone at the game(course form all one could cling to)apart for one run at Cheltenham but I would like more recent evidence that that.
I didn't back Minello apart from a lucky with 3 nr's as I don't like to tie up money ante post and with it's last 2 runs I let it run I did do Allaho though and can spell pu x2
Report Hibore March 21, 2021 8:46 PM GMT
Bentring, you belittle every thing I’ve posted in the last 3 months to play up to your best mate Irishone. Don’t act the innocent or I’ll post 20+ unprovoked responses to my comments.

My recommendation about your 200 words without a comma or full stop on your first post wasn’t malicious if you look at it again and if you took that way I apologise.

If you call me an idiot fancying this horse or that horse I’m going to I not allowed an opinion ? Is there an ethnic minority group that cuts grass ? You’ve lost me there...iI was giving you some pocket money jokingly as you lived with your mum.

I’m willing to call an end to this bickering as I’m getting fed up with it. It seems we got off on the wrong foot and let’s start fresh this year ? Agree ?
Report irishone March 22, 2021 5:49 AM GMT
Absolutely spot on bentring

Also the point about a forum
Is you come on here to give opinions
About horses and betting on many have said

.....but IF you start telling lies and aftertiming

Then when you get caught out.... start belittling people who you dont know from adam

Making unfounded remarks about their ethnicity, lifestyle or unfunny banter then YES  this forum will turn toxic.
Report irishone March 22, 2021 6:03 AM GMT
Back to racing Budd

Paul Townend went through a long period in Rubys shadow and deservedly has come through it.

There was a period when he would drive you mad seemingly looking for gaps that weren't there from in behind horses or changing his hands before the last, unsettling the horse and as a consequence losing the race. I dont know if you watched Irish racing a lot at that time but he was unpopular with the everyday betting shop punter and was starting to get a bit of a reputation as a blunderer. Whatever happened prior to Ruby's  departure, whether it was that he had learnt from Willie or Ruby, or was getting better sits or literally maturing as an individual he has amazingly turned the corner, fair play to him and long may it continue. A thoroughly nice fellah as well.
Report FOYLESWAR March 22, 2021 7:01 AM GMT
as duffy said its a forum and you are going to get different characters egos with differing opinions .some will drive others mad, some will get along fine ,some take things /comments personaly some are easy going and ignore ,banter is fine the irish /english rivalry  thing is starting to get boring now now ,yes the irish horses and trainers are in a different league at the moment its plain to see we are all aware of it but to be honest if i have backed a horse or fancy one, what country or what religion /gender race of the connections dont influence my thinking one bit.the main function of this forum should be the discussion of horses /races /fancies and the chelt festival and all that goes with it . we will get the odd spat  here and there its expected .
everyone has opinions and for some its hard to see past their pocket ,hopefully irish /bentring /and hibore can end this crap now and we can get back to what the forum should be about before everyone gets the hump with looking in and posting and fooks off to another site.
Report irishone March 22, 2021 7:10 AM GMT
Covert racism is a form of racial discrimination that is disguised and subtle, rather than public or obvious.

Regular jibes about Irish trainers on here.
Regular jibes about Irish lifestyles on here.
Regular jibes about Irish gambles on here.

Two main protagonists Hibore and Impossible.
Reported to moderators loads of times.
Nothing done.
So they get it back.
Then start screaming.......
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