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unclepuncle
31 Oct 20 18:30
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Date Joined: 16 Feb 03
| Topic/replies: 6,442 | Blogger: unclepuncle's blog
With Abacadabras again showing he is weak in a finish I am surprised that Epatante can still be backed at 4/1. Should be about 7/4 imo. Doesn’t look to have any weaknesses, travels, jumps well and finds plenty, and proven at the track.
Maximum bet material for me.Shocked

Goshen helps make the market but has it to prove imo after his disappointing flat campaign.

Buveur D’Air at 25/1 might be worth a little saver though best to wait until he is definitely about to make his comeback.
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Report FOYLESWAR October 31, 2020 5:42 PM GMT
too much can go wrong to take 4/1 at this stage  about her for the champ imo uncle anything under double figgas does not interest me this fAR out , could get turned over in her trials ,look what happened to beuvair d last season freak accident etc good luck uncle but learned a lesson with espoir d allen a few seasons back lumped on at single figgas and paid the price dint even get a run.
Report unclepuncle November 1, 2020 2:21 PM GMT
I won't be surprised if she is odds on come the day just like Buveur D'Air when he won his second CH.
I advised him as a fantastic bet at 5/1 at the start of that season on here too for the same reasons - lack of opposition, proven course form, no obvious injury worries etc.Cool

I wonder who will get the ride now Barry has retired.
Report unclepuncle November 28, 2020 5:19 PM GMT
Like taking candy off a baby.Cool
Report buddeliea December 12, 2020 4:59 PM GMT
I fear a no contest CHurdle this season.
Report FOYLESWAR December 12, 2020 5:30 PM GMT
budd  she beat scaua royal rec 7 pound and he was cutting out the running ,as i said half a dozen would have done the same getting 7 ,she might not ave beat a great deal in the champ hurdle , she deserves to be fav but too short imo
Report harry callaghan December 12, 2020 7:44 PM GMT
What price do you think she should be foyles?
Report FOYLESWAR December 12, 2020 8:04 PM GMT
2/1 would be about right imo harry  , just think some are thinking its done and dusted and she just has to turn up to win ,it was a good performance last time but 2 were out of the race early ,she may improve again and win but at around evens not for me .
Report harry callaghan December 12, 2020 8:29 PM GMT
I had a good bet on silver streak that day but disappointing what happened...for me though foyles she had a lovely race and should come forward from the run...I get what she beat wasn’t much but I wouldn’t want to be a layer as don’t rate the Irish horses and think honeysuckle is a 2m4f horse who isn’t quick enough...that 7lbs really puts me off laying her myself and getting her beat if she performs won’t be easy if her progression continues but you never know in racing so I get the 2/1 that you think
Report duffy December 13, 2020 5:20 AM GMT
She won it at 2/1 last year, and she is already shorter, she's progressing but I think that this years field as it stands is very likely stronger than last year, apart from her, Darver's Star and perhaps Coeur Sublime the remainder of last years race could be fondly be known as the usual suspects that we all knew most of what there was to know about them.

We know that the likely way the race will be run will suit both Abas and Saint Roi and know that they have both produced strong performances at the track, in Abas especially, if they can get into his head (headgear maybe) he may have another level within his reach right now, he will certainly travel through the race at pace no problem, but they need to get him to finish the race. It's becoming a distant memory now for sure but Epatante does have a bitter flop to her name at the festival and at cramped odds I would consider that too.

I would be against her on the day at 6/4 if the other two are there, Saldier too, if he turns up and Concertista another who could be anything and is in much the same position as Epatante was this time last year as a mare rapidly improving and entering the picture from left field are another two who we just don't know where their level is.

We are not going to know anything more about her by the time the race comes around than from when she crossed the line first last year, she beat Sceau Royale the other day who had to make the running and he's about the last horse suitable for that job, he ran better today with the race run to suit but still didn't pay her any compliments.

Unlike in Ireland where her main threats will take each other on through the Winter, she will have one more basic walkover before the race itself and we'd have learned nothing more about her but she will go into the race as a short priced fav. on the back of winning a very poor race last year.

For years now we are used to seeing a standout horse in this race amongst a weak bunch and it could be that after her win last year in a proper poor renewal we are jumping to an early conclusion for this year....certainly at the prices anyway.
Report duffy December 13, 2020 5:28 AM GMT
One thing is crystal clear, we need more of the top novice hurdlers from the previous season to stay hurdling the next year in order to strengthen up the Champion Hurdle picture year on year.

They may be very good chasers in the making but the prospect of Envoi Allen and Shishkin in a Champion Hurdle really would get the juices flowingGrin
Report buddeliea December 13, 2020 7:31 AM GMT
Reason i fear a no contest Is that i simply dont rate what i have seen in Ireland this season, and theres clearly nothing in England unless Goshen comes back to his best.
I agree with Duffy re Saldier and Concertista, but the mare is not a sure runner and Saldier has had his problems and aint a sure runner either because of those problems.
Report unclepuncle December 13, 2020 7:38 AM GMT
If Hendo and McManus keep to the same three race plan every year and don't get lured into going on to Punchestown then I see no reason why she can't win 5 Champion Hurdles. Mullins won six Mares hurdles with Quevega don't forget.

She has no weaknesses and with the 7lb allowance she is nigh on unbeatable imo. Certainly I have seen nothing so far his year in the novice ranks that looks likely to be a threat next year.

Obviously any horse can get injured, fall or get brought down but if the odds were right, like they were when I posted the OP, then I'm happy to put my money where my mouth is.
Report unclepuncle December 13, 2020 7:38 AM GMT
If Hendo and McManus keep to the same three race plan every year and don't get lured into going on to Punchestown then I see no reason why she can't win 5 Champion Hurdles. Mullins won six Mares hurdles with Quevega don't forget.

She has no weaknesses and with the 7lb allowance she is nigh on unbeatable imo. Certainly I have seen nothing so far his year in the novice ranks that looks likely to be a threat next year.

Obviously any horse can get injured, fall or get brought down but if the odds were right, like they were when I posted the OP, then I'm happy to put my money where my mouth is.
Report buddeliea December 13, 2020 7:44 AM GMT
You could be right Uncle, but i would not be surprised if one or two come out of this seasons Ballymore to challenge her, looks a hot race to me.
Report impossible123 December 13, 2020 6:22 PM GMT
I think she represents better value than either Shishkin or Envoi Allen (because she's proven), and the 7lbs allowance is all mighty gift; her run in the Mares Novice Hurdle was a blip as the ground went against her badly on the day. She's probably improved since, and the Champion Hurdle being on the 1st day of the Festival would help too.

Unless Saldier is sound and improving only very heavy ground can beat Epatante, all things being equal; the form of Concertista is too inferior to be in the reckoning, I believe.
Report duffy December 14, 2020 2:40 PM GMT
She's proven in as much as she is a CH winner but it was a shell of a race and a CH in name only, BD used to get beat by the same stick, but he did keep coming back and the race never improved.

We've yet to see if anything comes along of real quality, but for sure, she did not face anything of quality in last years race, the truth is that we do not know if she is top class or just another solid performer that can take advantage in weak years.
Report duffy December 14, 2020 2:42 PM GMT
WD on the 4/1 mind youGrin
Report impossible123 December 21, 2020 3:46 PM GMT
Walsh is still ruing the day he did not take some 7/2 despite fancying her loads; 6/4 best now.
Report buddeliea December 26, 2020 2:41 PM GMT
Oh dear
Report impossible123 December 26, 2020 3:25 PM GMT
A chance for Walsh to back her at 11/4 (here). I hope she's ok. She did flatten a hurdle on the far side and lost momentum and a few lengths to the winner. It's just too bad to be true.
Report duffy December 26, 2020 3:47 PM GMT
Last year's CH was a shocker and there must be a strong possibility mow that there was an over reaction to her level of ability, certainly has a big question to answer...the Irish mob will make it a better race than last year too....have to think that both Abas and Saint Roi would have enjoyed travelling in behind SS there today.
Report impossible123 December 26, 2020 8:08 PM GMT
Saint Roi (won a handicap race at Cheltenham) and Abacadabras (2nd to Shishkin) despite having 1st run? If one fancies the former 13/8 on monday against the latter is a stonking price (to me).

Epatante beat today's winner by easily last time. Just an off-day today, I believe, unless something untoward shows up over the next few days. I firmly believe - if sound - and run to form Epatante will finish infront of Silver Streak (again) and others at Cheltenham next March.
Report irishone December 26, 2020 10:09 PM GMT
I firmly believe you haven't got a fecking clue
Report buddeliea December 27, 2020 9:00 AM GMT
Reason i fear a no contest Is that i simply dont rate what i have seen in Ireland this season,

I am taking that back.
Just watched the 2 races again involving the new irish contenders again, and come to the inclusion that although they all come out very similar, i was really visually impressed with Aspire Tower.
He looks a genuine, straight forward horse, he jumps ok, and i really liked the way he finished his race from the front.
Just the type i like.
Yes, hes only a 4 year old, but that means he should improve for age, and hes imo good value at the prices.
Not dismissing the others, and have backed JTM e/w as his prices appeal.
The prices of Aba and SR dont appeal to me at all.
Gut feeling says SR will be the better horse though.
Report buddeliea December 27, 2020 9:01 AM GMT
*Conclusion
Report duffy December 27, 2020 3:08 PM GMT
Abacadabras for me, has a question with what's between his ears but if I would gamble they can sort that out, if they can then we will see him go to another level from where he is now. A big plus he has is that he'll travel through a race off a strong pace easily.
Report buddeliea December 27, 2020 3:12 PM GMT
Yeh, he does look like a horse that is better than he is achieving.
Not straightforward at all. Definitely talented though.
Report impossible123 December 29, 2020 3:08 PM GMT
The Matheson result augers well for Epatante - she beat the winner Sharjah comprehensively last time they met. If she's ok and below par performance was related to her sex her supporters can breath a massive sigh-of-relief. Bring it on Cheltenham.
Report buddeliea December 29, 2020 5:14 PM GMT
Fumnny how Epatante is allowed below par performance, but some of the irish horse you have been knocking last few days apparently are not.
Report FOYLESWAR December 29, 2020 5:36 PM GMT
it depends on if he has backed them if he has not they are shyte and shouldnt be running if he has then they are world beaters !
Report impossible123 December 29, 2020 6:45 PM GMT
Epatante is proven in the main event; Saint Roi is proven as a very good handicapper - nothing more; Abacadabras got 1st run on Shishkin yet got chinned. On the other hand Sharjah has won 2x here, and also 2nd to Epatante in the main event.

Epatante was incredibly fresh before the X'mas Hurdle plus a sloppy jump at the 3rd last. On one bad run one cannot dismiss her fav chance; Sharjah upheld the form though. And, with a 7lb allowance what's not to like; pushed-out to 11/4 from 6/4 is a price worth chancing, assuming she's not sustained any injury.

I was particularly looking toward to the Savills Chase for the entire X'mas racing, but what a let down with the two main principals ie Minella Indo and Delta Work falling so early on in the race. And, the run of Presenting Percy and Samcro - both never going - were too bad to be true which led me to suspect all might not be well at Cullentra House; Kemboy should have won - he ran a fabulous race on the track he excelled - but got chinned probably by the loose ground. As such, the result was an irrelevance, in my book, with regards to the main event at Cheltenham.
Report irishone December 29, 2020 6:47 PM GMT
When was it not an irrelevance ? No correlation whatsoever between the savilles and the cheltenham gold cup.
Report impossible123 January 30, 2021 7:36 PM GMT
Hendo intimated she was treated for a back issue after her x'mas flop. This news had been a long time coming. Another Flat star filly experienced a similar issue at Ascot eg Treve (I think) at Ascot. And, she came good again in her big next race.
Report impossible123 February 13, 2021 12:13 PM GMT
She's the forgotten horse. Let's hope her back issue is sorted and atoned to retain her crown next March.
Report muse February 14, 2021 9:14 PM GMT
atone
/əˈtəʊn/

verb
make amends or reparation

hth
Report muse February 14, 2021 9:17 PM GMT
"impossible123", would it be mischievous to suggest that there is the odd punter here and there who have not quite "forgotten" the animal that won the race last year, has been favourite pretty much ever since, and is still no more than 1/4 of a point off favouritism with most Joe's?
Report impossible123 February 14, 2021 9:36 PM GMT
She was 6/4 and shorter prior to the X'mas Hurdle. Now 11/4 2nd fav as reigning champion.
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