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unclepuncle
14 Mar 20 08:34
Joined:
Date Joined: 16 Feb 03
| Topic/replies: 6,436 | Blogger: unclepuncle's blog
Another great festival over and already time to look ahead to next year and see if there is any value on offer. Obviously the Corona Virus may cause havoc and if racing has to be called off completely I can see plenty of owners, trainers and jockeys being forced to jack it in, and with all sport cancelled the bookies won't be in good shape either.Scared

Plenty of eyecatching performances last week and as ever picking the right horse for the right race is half the battle.

Envoi Allen was very professional and clearly has the world at his feet but there has to be a doubt as to where exactly he will end up - Marsh, RSA, maybe even Champion Hurdle or Gold Cup, so he can't be played antepost at short prices imo. The good thing is that he helps make the market for plenty of others.

Starting with next years novice race the first one I like is Abacadabras for the Arkle - clearly went through the Supreme like the best horse and is a pure two miler with plenty of pace. The old course suits him ideally and the 16/1 on offer is very generous imo. I can see him going on to win a Champion Chase or two if his jumping is up to scratch.Excited
Maybe a slight worry he stays over hurdles, but the initial comments suggested he would go chasing.

His conquereor in the Supreme, Shiskin, is also a lovely type but he needed every yard of the trip and was outpaced for a long way so the Marsh Novices, on the more galloping New Course, looks a much better fit to me. Best price 12/1 with the bookies but a bit of 17/1+ on here will do me.

The next one I like is Appreciate It for the Ballymore - ran an excellent race in the Bumper but he's already won over 2m4f and so the longer trip looks a much better fit than the 2m of the Supreme. The 16/1 (plus a boost) looks generous to me.

The RSA is fascinating with the front 4 from the Albert Bartlett vying for 2nd favouritism behind Envoi Allen. Of the four the one I think will be best suited to the change to the old course is Latest Exhibition and so the 16/1 (+boost) is acceptable.

On to the Championship races and the Champion Hurdle looks a two horse race with Epatante and Goshen - the 9/2 and 8/1 isn't a bad dutch imo. One worry at ther back of my mind is that Goshen could turn in to a high class flat horse - maybe something like the £1m Ebor would be the plan and then maybe the Melbourne Cup so he may not be risked over hurdles if that were to happen. So while a bit boring the 9/2 on Epatante has been taken. She travels nicely, jumps quickly and then finds plenty so even if Abacadabras stays over hurdles I'd excpect her to out battle him after the last.

The Champion Chase is a real minefield. Surely Altior will be past his best and Defi Du Seuil will surely be aimed at the Ryanair next year (he loves the New Course) and with this years Arkle field looking very poor it is left to Chacun Pour Soi to head the market at 6/1. Obviously we still don't know how he will handle Cheltenham.
This years winner Politlouge is 25/1 on here which seems a bit insulting but maybe A Plus Tard is worth a go. Disappointed in the Ryanair but he maybe prefers the Old Course and of course beat Chacun Pour Soi over 2m at Leopardstown. Might wait until the start of next season (and see how Punchestown / Aintree go if they actually go ahead) before getting involved.

The Ryanair could be a cracker with Min finally showing he can do it at Cheltenahm (first time I haven't been on him of courseCry) and the front two form the Marsh, Samcro and Melon, likely to be aimed here (can't have Melon as a Gold Cup horse whatever Mullins said - and besides the owner has Al Boum Photo).
However as mentioned up page Defi Du Seuil will surely be aimed here next season and at 20/1 he looks a good bet. His course form with Lostintranslation looks even better now.

The Gold Cup should be a cracker again and the front three all have good claims with Champ and Minella Indo the new kids on the block. Can't have Champ jumping well enough but Minella Indo should have won the RSA and could figure, but 16/1 is not big enough for me just yet.

The stayers hurdle looks very open with Paisley Park blotting his copybook. This years winner was no fluke imo, he has run well all 4 times on the New Course and also travelled really well in the previous years Albert Bartlett and that form has worked out well. He's no superstar but at 25/1 he looks massively overpriced just on a horses for courses basis.
Thyme Hill could be interesting if they stay over hurdles (16/1).

A few life-changing multiples and some decent singles on the above - roll on 2021.Cool
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Report ronnie rails March 14, 2020 2:00 PM GMT
uncle
a very good article
good luck
regards
Ronnie.
Report buddeliea March 15, 2020 6:38 AM GMT
Done my first bet for next year
Treble
Shiskin- Arkle
Goshen- C hurdle
Santini- Gold Cup

Shishkin I am almost certain goes chasing and be aimed at the Arkle
Goshen  His trainer is right, he is a freak.
Santini Fair bit bigger price than ABP for a neck defeat.

More to come no doubtLaugh
Report FOYLESWAR March 15, 2020 5:21 PM GMT
too early for me doing the guineas at the moment but may be in vain what with the virus ,good write up and good luck .
Report impossible123 March 29, 2020 2:27 PM BST
I'm tempted to do a few, but I've to be certain I'd be around to collect my winnings. Post Covid-19 a sure thing.
Report Fashion Fever April 1, 2020 2:48 PM BST
really like monkfish RSA nabbing anything over 11 no doubt will go over fences, unlimited improvement in him, slightly worried Patrick will nab him for the old 4 miler

latest exhibition maybe a jlt horse didnt look slow to me,
Report foxy April 1, 2020 3:25 PM BST
Monkfish would improve if sent to Henry de Bromhead.
Report Dessie the great April 6, 2020 10:46 AM BST
Id agree Chacun most likely winner of CC. Not sure how poor the Arkle was, the front two look ok and clocked a time two seconds faster than CC. Both are young horses and have potential to improve. I would have them as most likely dangers to Chacun. There as to be a small doubt about them turning up though. The mare has the option of the Mares chase while Fakir may well be stepped up in trip
Report impossible123 December 29, 2020 7:06 PM GMT
A mere 11 weeks away. Hang-on in there everyone.
Report impossible123 January 3, 2021 11:17 AM GMT
10+ weeks of boring horse racing. How I wish Cheltenham was next week or soon after. I'm already longing for the Flat to commence.
Report jimnast January 5, 2021 3:13 PM GMT
leopardstown,newbury,warwick and kempton plus a few very good races scattered around.
Report jimnast January 5, 2021 3:14 PM GMT
forgot ascot
Report impossible123 January 5, 2021 4:29 PM GMT
This is the worst time of the year for me regards horse racing at the Cheltenham Festival esp when more than usual the targets have probably be determined. The presence of crowds would be good to cement the atmosphere. However, a skeletal presenters and/or tipsters presence a god-send, and well received by me; gibberish must not be allowed to fester and contaminate the Festival.
Report irishone January 6, 2021 7:23 AM GMT
Ignorance is no excuse
The Dublin festival is next stop not Cheltenham
Report sageform January 6, 2021 8:00 AM GMT
First inkling of doubt over Irish runners in UK with Chepstow now unlikely under Irish travel news.
Report irishone January 6, 2021 8:02 AM GMT
There hasbeen no Irish runners over there since christnas
Report irishone January 6, 2021 8:05 AM GMT
Gordons got two entered but who knows ? Its not only covod though , the Brexit paperwork needs sorting before Cheltenham
Report irishone January 6, 2021 8:06 AM GMT
*covid regulations under lockdown
Report sageform January 6, 2021 1:27 PM GMT
There is sufficient doubt about any horses travelling over for the HRI to issue a statement. 69 days to the Supreme.
Report impossible123 January 6, 2021 4:16 PM GMT
The Festival will be ok. If the worst comes to the worst base a team over here like O'Brien did for his Flat horse. This will be a better scenario for punters too as no likelihood of last hitches on air transportation.
Report Bentring January 6, 2021 5:06 PM GMT
Would have thought horse's and stable staff travel by sea
Don't know the logistics but would imagine it be expensive by air.
Some others on here would know more about this.
Report irishone January 6, 2021 5:52 PM GMT
Cannot believe that idiocy from imp
Vast majority go rosslare pembroke
Report jimnast January 6, 2021 6:12 PM GMT
travel ban to finish midnight friday probably to late for the chepstow runners.

i dont know the boat times
Report sageform January 6, 2021 8:32 PM GMT
Surprised they are ending it when we just had a record number of cases and mortality today. Elliott could have 1/2 in the Finale if they run.
Report sageform January 6, 2021 8:36 PM GMT
Chepstow will probably be off again anyway if the forecast is right.
Report Hibore January 15, 2021 10:05 PM GMT
Hacker Des Places is very unlikely to make Cheltenham as cut leg. 3rd fav in Boodles so be aware.
Report irishone January 16, 2021 6:40 AM GMT
Good info
Report impossible123 January 17, 2021 4:21 PM GMT
Just over 8 weeks to go. Let's hope everyone has a good one.
Report ronnie rails January 17, 2021 6:32 PM GMT
Impossible
have you heard anything about Malone Road or Keskonrisk tia

hope you are well
regards

Ronnie.
Report impossible123 January 18, 2021 8:15 PM GMT
'ronnie rails', ok, hope you're well too. No, I've not heard anything about the above 2 horses since their last race. Maybe someone can shed something about their well-being since.
Report impossible123 March 9, 2021 2:02 PM GMT
Only a week to go. I hope every horse entered will turn up. I also hope connections will not make last minute crass decision change on target eg Energumene --> Marsh or Quilixios --> Boodles. A good Cheltenham every one.
Report impossible123 March 14, 2021 11:38 AM GMT
Unless the likes of Shishkin, Monkfish and Envoi Allen perform to expectations this could be considered another mediocre renewal. Let's hope these do not, and a new champion emerges from the Blue Riband race.
Report irishone March 14, 2021 12:26 PM GMT
?????


One clueless tw4t if you ask me
Report impossible123 March 15, 2021 1:57 PM GMT
Is anyone feeling a touch underwhelmed on the day prior to the Festival commencing? The weather is conducive to most, and 3 potential top class novices on show yet the usual buzz seems to be missing for me. Maybe a couple of winners on Opening Day will help to put things right.
Report impossible123 March 15, 2021 6:17 PM GMT
It's bonkers Frodon is shorter than Santini (here). I think Coleman will be waving Bryony bye, bye coming to the 2nd last; ABP and Champ have drifted a touch, but money for A Plus Tard and Royale Pagaille.
Report irishone March 15, 2021 6:21 PM GMT
Five out of the last 6 posts ! Have you come in yer pants ?
Report Andymca March 15, 2021 6:40 PM GMT
Santini probably wont even turn up
Report sageform March 15, 2021 7:24 PM GMT
I have 9 of my 10 to follow still declared from just one line. Cyrname the only absentee. Tomorrow is the big day with Allmankind, Eldorado Allen, Honeysuckle and Epatante then 2 in the CC on Wednesday, Politologue and Rouge Vif, and 2 in the GC, Champ and Al Boum Photo and possibly Thyme White in the County.
Report impossible123 March 15, 2021 10:31 PM GMT
'Andymca', that's my worry with Hendo. But, I think Santini will be there to avenge last year's defeat.
Report Andymca March 15, 2021 11:17 PM GMT
I guess you meant to say, try to avenge last year's defeat
Report impossible123 March 15, 2021 11:21 PM GMT
Hendo could have a Grade 1 treble ie Shishkin, Epatante and Santini/Champ. What's the price for this happening?
Report FATTIEWHITEYSLOVEADRINK March 16, 2021 3:41 PM GMT
Can someone possibly wake me up on Thursday!
This chalkfest is totally boring **** out of me
Report unclepuncle March 20, 2021 7:11 AM GMT
Well another great Festival over and before I start my 2022 thread it's time to look back on last years analysis.

If nothing else it goes to show the perils of ante post betting.Sad

Shiskin and Appreciate both backed at good prices but sadly for the wrong races.
The injury to Ferny Hollow clearly having an impact on Appreciate It's target though I did at least get to lay off my stake.

Shiskin had nothing to beat in the Arkle and it was such a shame Eugername (or however it's spelt) missed the race. Shiskin still looks like he really wants further but the 2m division is very weak so like Altior, who was very similar, he may get away with it.

Epatante was clearly rushed to get back for Cheltenham after her Kempton injury and her chance was gone with a huge blunder at the second (completely missed by Richard Hoiles). She jumped slowly thereafter and in the circumstances did well to finish 3rd. However I doubt she'd have beaten Honeysuckle anyway. I was the first person to mention Honeysuckle was a potential future star after her debut (see the 'best race I saw this weekend' thread) but sadly I did not have a bean on her.Cry Abacadbras fell and maybe might have been placed but they should have gone chasing with him.

Latest Exhibition stupidly not declared for the RSA - still might not have beaten Monkfish but they say you should never be afraid of one horse. In fact they could also have gone for the Marsh but they were scared of Envoi Allen.

I speculatively put up A Plus Tard for the Champion Chase but connections went up in trip rather than down. And Politilogue was obviously withdrawn on the day.

Thyme Hill's late withdrawal and the fall of Lisnagar Oscar meant the stayers was a race to forget.

Minella Indo did win though and as predicted Champ was never going to jump well enough for a Gold Cup.

Can't wait for next year.Excited
Report irishone March 20, 2021 7:39 AM GMT
You echo my thoughts exactly uncle !
Report unclepuncle March 20, 2021 11:22 AM GMT
I’ll take that as a great compliment Irish.Grin
Report impossible123 March 20, 2021 8:01 PM GMT
Cheltenham: Only Shishkin (no Energumene) and Monkfish (just) obliged; Envoi Allen, Epatante, Paisley Park, ABP, Champ and Santini all fell short.
Report irishone March 20, 2021 8:46 PM GMT
so what you saying ?

you done yer nuts ?
Report FOYLESWAR March 20, 2021 9:58 PM GMT
didnt realist minella indo was 16s bit early but seen worse ,young and progressing and allaho has boosted the form  and he has tonked a dual gold cup winner and a savilles winner .
Report FOYLESWAR March 20, 2021 10:01 PM GMT
just looked 6/1 b365 ,dont know wher ya got 16s from uncle
Report unclepuncle March 20, 2021 10:30 PM GMT
Foyles you seem to be confused. CrazyLaugh

This thread was about this years festival that has just finished and was started by me straight after the 2020 festival - Minella Indo was then 16/1 for the Gold Cup after his 2nd to Champ in the RSA.

I have started a new thread looking ahead to the 2022 festival.
Report FOYLESWAR March 21, 2021 8:13 AM GMT
Laugh not hard to confuse me uncle , the missus says i dont know wnat day it is half the time!  she needs to up it to dont what year it is!Laugh sorry uncle!
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