Cheltenham Festival
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Matched at 9/2 for supreme novice
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elliot said theres a big chance envoi goes to supreme as not sure he wants a slog over 2.5 on bad going , or words to that effect
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That’s correct foyleswar he has said that all along
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Trainef said all options open, will walk the course on Saturday and decide, its on RP website.
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Trainer
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So clown on another thread thinks it’s disgusting and something needs to be done
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Under the circumstances a very sensible decision, is fully effective at 2 miles and despite his likely presence in the Ballymore it has not served to scare horses away resulting in the Ballymore being the strongest out of these two races IMO with a few horses in it that look like thorough stayers who'd appreciate a right test at the trip.
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what makes you say duffy that it looks the stronger of the 2 races when no horse has even won in graded company in the ballymore??
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I think many of the main protagonists in the Supreme have negatives against them that they have to overcome, whereas many of the main protagonists behind EA in the Ballymore, SJ, TBG, TBB all look like strong contenders who have been highly impressive and may well have won graded races but haven't been given the chance, I think that the Supreme has at least a couple horses that are in the wrong race in AF and CH. I agree that it isn't the strongest purely on the formbook but many of the front runners haven't failed at a higher level they just haven't had the chance, but saying that, SJ did absolutely smash up MD who had been a previous graded winner himself didn't he.
The long standing favourite for the Supreme is only a listed winner isn't he but comparing the English and Irish in terms of measuring graded wins is a bit unfair as the Irish top novices would routinely have run in them, I believe that SJ and TBB would now be graded winners had they been Irish trained, they certainly would have run in them. |
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Could not agree more Duffy, you just saved me some time composing a post,much appreciated
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still think this will run in the Ballymore.
If he was Supreme bound he would'nt be @4/1 on here.Looks like the weather may improve a bit aswell.Took him on in the Supreme as well as the two in the same ownership. GL ALL |
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After the run of Abacadabras in the Supreme this beast will be backed (already has) till thy kingdom come (again) tomorrow. The journos and tipsters are opposing him big time; their Irish Banker was Benie Des Dieux (apparently).
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i may need sectioning after this but there may not be much if anything between the irish and english the supreme result may give a hint . envoi may be the 2nd coming but i am taking him on with 3 of the english at massive prices ,mossey fen stays and has decent form and is a game fooka and available at near 100/1 on here and 33s plus w/0 the fav ,son of camas also a massive price and hendo has some decent novices big price w/o fav and a win bet on the big breakaway ............potential big return for peanuts laid out .good luck all .
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Well the form looks strong after yesterday for sure, but worth taking on with horses that may or may not be better than him.
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Wow, Ireland 123 and the best GB horses beaten 20 lengths.
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I took him on and 'lay' a very small amount to risk manage. But, make no mistake he's a very good horse the further the went.As such, the RSA next year, I'd think as the JLT might be too short; the Gold Cup in 2022 all being well.
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got it wrong there but if yer gonna get it wrong do it in style ,only a small outlay so minimal damage
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Which is his most likely target, the JLT or RSA? He ran in the Neptune over 2m 5f, and his ultimate target is the Gold Cup.
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I would guess the jlt and I wouldn’t completely rule out the champion hurdle.
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I would lean strongly towards the RSA. The Gold Cup is definitely the long term aim so I can’t really see the point of going Marsh route.
If he was mine I’d go for a couple of 2.5m races and then RSA. Plenty of options at this early stage though. Regarding the Champion hurdle I’m not so sure. He looked a little outpaced over the ballymore trip until his class and stamina kicked in. Not sure he’s speedy enough for CH unless the ground was very soft. |
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Using No More Heroes as a guide he ran in the Navan Hurdle over 2m 4f beating Shaneshill, then Albert Bartlett before taking in the RSA; Envoi Allen asserted and ran on after the last in the Neptune. Also, Elliot has Abacadabras who ran Shishkin close in the Supreme.
I'd think the RSA more likely with Abacadabras the JLT. But, I cannot see Elliot will want Envoi Allen going for the Champion Hurdle given the bad experience with Samcro (I understand different ownership). |
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I would be surprised if both went novice chasing especially abracadabras,kicking king went arkle in his novice season as did war of attrition.
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War of attrition started his chase career over 2 m 6f at Thurles kicking king 2 m at punchestown
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Which horse would you say was the more impressive in the ballymore samcro or envoi Allen?
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Both were impressive but Samcro showed much more natural speed and pace. EA powered home doing his best work at the end of the race.
There aren’t many horses that I can remember that going into the season could be favourite on the day in either Champion Hurdle or RSA He’s a special horse that is for certain. |
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I think Envoi Allen (EA) is more likely for the RSA too the way he ran the Neptune, but the market is no guide either. However, for the Champion Hurdle only 2 horses I'd back at present eg Goshen (but very short at 9/2) and Shishkin (16/1/unlikely runner though).
I'm very surprised Abacadabras is only 8/1 for this. Is he a definite? Or could he go the JLT? |
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Thinking back hibore samcro was either at the front of the betting or close to it for those same two races.
Impossible the biggest thing against abracadabras going for the champion hurdle which should be his target is the owners ,they dipped there toes n with samcro and it didn’t work out,they may well wrongly insist on going chasing next season. |
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I think time will tell Envoi Allen beat a much stronger field than samcro I know the 2 nd and 3 rd went on to win grade ones at aintree and punchestown and the 5 th won the arkle.
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It was Samcro your right. 4/1 JLT, 6/1 each for the Champion Hurdle and RSA.
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I was pleased to see him win the jlt this year hopefully he can kick on from that.
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Where do you think he’ll go next season ? Ryanair seems most likely to me.
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You would think so hibore but the Savils at Christmas would be worth a try then take it from there.possibly start of in the grade 2 clonmel oil in mid November won by douvan this season monalee 3 rd,generally speaking it’s not that a competitive race then up to 3 mile at leopardstown then decide.
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I think Samcro would be Ryanair bound too unless something untoward deprives Delta Work of a run in the Blue Riband. I think Samcro needs more experience over fences; jumping against seasoned fencers in the Gold Cup could be step-too-soon next season, I think.
Samcro was much shorter - between 4/1 and 6/1 here - for the JLT; 16/1 and more for the RSA (next season almost identical price fr either race). After the trashing from Faugheen at Limerick he went out to 20 and more here. |
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I very much doubt delta works target will influence any decision on samcro gigginstown can never be accused of avoiding each other.
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dont do antepost generally
(mares rock and panic attack side last year) but taken the 16/1 on here for the champion hurdle following interesting discussion with farrier this morning |
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What did the farrier say to make you put a tenner on ?
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Can't be sure, he had a mouthful of nails.
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I stuck him in a little Yankee, Irish,
Envoi 11 CH.hdl. Abacadabras 17 Arkle Latest exhibition 17 R.S.A. Sire due Berlais 16 Stayers. £1 e.w. accer & 50p Yankee gets me 90 grand. As I said last year, might as well dream here as in bed. |
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Sorry for pausing the the thread, my betting brain had been suffering the equivalent of " Blue Balls " since ****. happened, I've since had some relief.
I believe that if the same ,or more likely, a naturally improved Envoi rocks up, he will win any race in which he's entered. Its up to us, as punters, to find, decide or just plain guess which race that will be. |